'25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive

[Chicagojk]

I had some thoughts on this before the latest injury news.  Seems a bit outdated now.

I'm still not in love with Klay at the two, but they seem very dedicated to AD at the four as much as possible and they aren't ready to bring Klay off the bench.  After seeing the defense, I'm less of a mind that Gafford will be traded this summer.  We didn't look nearly as good defensively with AD at the five as we did with him at the four.  That ability to be a rover along the back line is (will someday be) more substantial than I imagined.  While we wait for Lively, I suspect Klay will be tethered to the Gafford minutes to create some gravity that our other wings don't provide (obviously out of date now as Lively might return sooner than AD).  I also think Christie continues to close games over Klay.

Offensively, PJ can at least get a set started and we can run a good bit of offense through AD in the high post if we want to keep Kyrie off the ball some.  In the past, our high PnR offense seemed largely designed to accomplish one thing...get Luka or Kyrie rolling downhill with options to hit a roller or hit a spot up shooter.  With AD in this spot, it opens many more options.  We saw action between Klay and AD and between Kyrie and AD that puts defenses in difficult positions (especially if AD hits his outside shots).  We even saw some 4/5 PnR that created problems.  The D created some easy buckets also.  But, Kyrie didn't have nearly as much space to operate as he is used to.  In the final seconds of a game when you need a bucket, it seems like the post might be the better place to start a play than trying to get Kyrie free for something moving downhill.  The good news is we have options there that we didn't really have before.

The exciting thing to imagine is what this looks like when Lively and AD play together.  Lively does just fine in space and having AD along the back line?  Yikes.  Our wings will be able to tighten up on 3 point shooters.  You better have 5 players on the floor who can hit 3's at a high clip if you are going to solve that D.  If I were Kidd, I might set Lively free to shoot 3's.  It probably wasn't a smart move in a Luka-centric rim rolling world, but it makes great sense in an AD-centric world.

In my mind we have 7 KEEPERS and then some (parts) in our top 11 players.  I still think Martin gets combined with Hardy as some point for an upgrade.  I have no desire to trade PJ and have my doubts about Gafford going out now that I saw this (briefly).

LIVELY       GAFFORD                                         Powell

AD             (PJ will get minutes here also)            OMax

PJ              (naji or martin)                                 Edwards 

KLAY          CHRISTIE                                         Hardy

KYRIE        (sd or exum)

It just sucks Davis got hurt.   His health needs to be the ultimate priority now.  Even if he misses the rest of the year.

I was really interested to get a look at a Lively, AD and PJ frontcourt.   I didn't have the high of the Luka led roster or not as exciting imo.    It is as awkward fit, but that made it interesting to me.  It goes against how many teams are playing now, but I think what Lively and PJ bring to the table that it could work.   It also may not.   You will need to be able to finish games with those three to work here.   If it does work, I think the skill of Lively and AD makes it tricky for teams to attack that lineup.    If you could keep those four, then you can use some assets for that other player.  If you could find a player (guard) who could compete with PJ and LIvely as your third best player, that is a really interesting lineup.   At least for a bit.    While you are probably losing a few depth pieces plus picks, you would still have good depth.   I don't know who this player is though.