Luka Dealt to Lakers: Nico Harrison is a Basketball Terrorist

[F Gump]

One of the underreported aspects of this from LA's perspective is they don't really have a financial advantage over anyone now that the Super Max is off the table.  Luka won't sign a five year extension.  He'll sign for long enough to get to 10 years of service with a PO after that.  So, the PO year plus two gets him to 10 and he'll take another year after that for protection purposes only.

So, LA's ability to go five years with larger raises is meaningless.  I'm not saying Luka isn't likely to stay with LA.  But, it isn't guaranteed and they have almost no advantage over other teams.  That is why they were able to remove the 2031 pick from the deal.

To take this further...
1 Luka is most likely to opt out of his PO, making him a FA in summer 2026. His current PO is 49M, and his max would be 51M. Easy choice.
2 At that point, summer 2026, he'd then sign a 2+1 (with the intent to opt out and be a FA in summer 2028).
3 Any team could sign him in summer 2026 to that deal, starting at 51M, with the ability to give him a 35% supermax in summer 2028 (starting at 72M/5y418M). Luka would presumably pick the team in 2026 that he would be staying with in 2028.
4 The difference in signing in 2026, playing 2 years on that deal, then opting out and signing a supermax with that same team in 2028 between LA and other teams would only be 1.5M. Big money for me, but relative peanuts to Luka.
5 IOW -- Luka will be a FA in 2026, choose his destination, and the right team has between now and then to clear cap room to offer him that deal. Not impossible at all, like Paul George did. The cap that year would be 170M, so they would have to have 120M or less committed to other players (and however many empty roster slots, if less than 12 players).
6 LA has the inside track since they don't have to clear cap room, but Lebron's salary and presence in 2026 is a big unknown that can alter everything for LA and Luka's desire to be there.