(07-08-2024, 05:16 PM)Smitty Wrote: It helps that PJ will be asked to be the 4th scorer this year instead of 3rd.
If we take the scoring average for Luka over the last 5 years he’s at 30.2 ppg. Having to do less, I’d expect that to be a good number, down from 33.9 last year on a whopping 37.5 mpg. Kyrie had his lowest scoring output in 5 years at 25.6. That seems repeatable. Klay’s ppg total was his lowest since year 2 in the league, but still averaged an efficient 17.9 ppg. PJ has been around 12 ppg almost every year and almost hit that number with the Mavs, despite poor shooting from 3 (11.7 ppg | 31% from 3). Lively finished his rookie year at 8.8 ppg.
If we’re conservative the scoring balance could look like this:
Luka - 30 ppg
Kyrie - 25 ppg
Klay - 18 ppg
PJW - 12 ppg
Lively - 10 ppg
That’s 95 ppg from your starters. And none of them are being asked to do anything out of the norm.
(07-08-2024, 07:53 PM)Jym Wrote: and 3 bench guys in Marshall, Grimes, and Gafford who are 5th starter quality
I'll do the same for the bench. I'll add my preference for the other two, which will be Hardy and Exum over Maxi. Exum played 19.8 mpg last year and averaged 7.8 ppg, playing in 55 games, starting in 17 of those. I have him penciled in for 12 mpg next year which puts him at 4.6 ppg. Hardy I have at 14 mpg next year which is exactly where he's been the last two years with the Mavs, and he averages 7.9 ppg in his career. Grimes coming in at 18 mpg next year which is below his 23.4 mpg career average but pretty close to last years 20.1 mpg. He shot a career low across the board and averaged 7.0 ppg. Naji I have penciled in as the backup 4 and getting 18 mpg, which is right around his playing time last year of 19 mpg, where he averaged 7.1 ppg. Then there's Gaff and his 22 mpg I have him getting next year which is what he averaged for the Mavs last year (21.5). He had a career high 11.2 ppg with the Mavs.
If we’re conservative the scoring balance could look like this:
Exum - 4 ppg
Hardy - 7 ppg
Grimes - 6 ppg
Naji - 6 ppg
Gafford - 10 ppg
That’s 33 ppg from your bench. And none of them are being asked to do anything out of the norm.
Combine that with the 95 from the starters and you're sitting at 128 ppg. The Pacers led the league last year with 123.3 ppg. I think the Mavs went out and fixed their offensive issues from the Finals.