2024 Playoffs- 3rd Round: Minnesota Timberwolves - Dallas Mavericks- MAVS WIN 4-1!

[SleepingHero]

Minnesota shocked Denver by beating them in game 1.

Denver probably felt, subconsciously, that the younger team would be satisfied by stealing an early home game away from the champs and still didn't buckle up properly for game 2. Minnesota killed them again.

Then, Denver finally started playing and won 3 straight games, the first two on the road. I watched all three of those games, and all three were more decisive victories than the Mavs win in game 1 of this series.

Then, Denver, intentionally or unintentionally, let up again, probably feeling on some level that the Wolves knew they were beaten. The Wolves did not know, and tied the series up at home.

Then, Denver went all out in home game 7, building a fairly late double digit lead, and probably felt on some level that the series was finally over, letting off the slightest bit. The Wolves did not think it was over, and by the time Denver knew what had hit them, they were out of gas and broken. During the closing minutes of that game, I saw both Jokic and Murray not boxing out, not closing out to shooters, etc, etc. THEY were the ones who gave up. The CHAMPS, in a game 7, on their home court.

And threw all of that, the whole series, the Wolves just kept coming at them.

What is it Apollo Creed's trainer tells him about Rocky in the sequel? "This is a man we don't need in our lives."

The key to that series really was whether or not Minny gave Denver the Rudy switch to Jokic off the PnR. If Jokic got Rudy 1 on 1, it was basically a basket every time. Either on Rudy himself or a pass to AG and a dunk. That was the main adjustment games 3-5. 

Minny couldn't/didn't figure it out until game 6, where they just decided to go under every single screen on Jokic, daring him to shoot. That basically stopped any switch for Jokic and allowed KAT/Reid to stay connected to Jokic while Rudy played 1 man away to swallow up any lob attempt or come double late if Jokic posted up, the defensive scheme that won them games 1 and 2. 

This strategy though gave Jokic+Murray 18(!) wide open 3s in games 6 and 7. They went 4-18 on them. They were previously a combined 47% on wide open 3s in their playoff career up until that point. Had Jokic and Murray didn't have some of their worst shooting of their career, Denver likely wraps up that game 7. 

What gives me hope is that Minny under no circumstance can ever go under a Luka or Kyrie screen. They are tiers above Jokic as a scorer. So they will have to concede the switch every time. 

I think the most likely adjustment is that they are going to have the big man stunt the drive and fake a double to allow McDaniels or Ant to recover to prevent a switch, but Luka is such a good passer that you're inviting a corner 3 doing that strategy. 

Lets see what they bring.