Non Knee-Jerk Takes

[DanSchwartzgan]

"If you have to eat a turd, don't nibble" - famous philosopher

What We Gave Up

Thanks for this thread.  I had meetings and didn't see the news until well after it happened.  My initial reaction was shock at how low KP's value had fallen.  We've contemplated deals with Washington and taking these and other bad contracts.  But those ideas always began with also getting Avdija or Rui or a pick or something.  Washington had some expiring players and we didn't get those either.  Even now, I don't count myself angry or pleased.  Just a little numb from the shock.

I am in the camp of being glad we no longer have to cater to KP's desire for certain kinds of touches.  He is antithetical to the way we run our O.  Maybe you make those concessions to a superstar center who can create for himself, but KP isn't one of those (let the Jokic watch begin...at least until he extends this summer).

I think we've probably reduced our near-term ceiling and raised our near-term floor.  The lower ceiling coming from missing an idealized KP that hasn't existed very often (he's net negative in On Minus Off the last two seasons despite his good advanced stats this year).  The floor raised because we actually have bodies on the floor rather than in rehab.  All in all, it was time to eat the turd or rip the band-aid off or however you want to say it.  It is just shocking still that a player with a LEBRON of 4.07 didn't bring more than this.


What We Gained

I'm not going to pretend I hate Bertans and Dinwiddie.  I spoke positively about them in recent posts.  For context, the Dinwiddie posts assumed a swap for THJ and the Bertans posts assumed he was part of the price for getting other things (Avdija and the Wiz 2023 pick would have been nice).

If Brunson is going to start, we need someone to run the second unit.  You could do a lot worse than Dinwiddie for this role.  He was a near all-star in 19/20 carrying a rag-tag bunch of nothings to the playoffs.  The O in Brooklyn always worked well despite his lack of a three point shot.  He is very much a down hill "get to the basket" PG which is exactly what Kidd has Luka and JB doing.  Everyone is a little hindered coming off an ACL.  But, there is upside here compared to his current stats in Washington.  If he will accept his role, I have absolutely no problem having SD as a high usage guy running out there with Maxi, Bertans, Green and one of the starters (probably a defensive wing).

I also said positive things about Bertans.  I doubt he forgot how to shoot over the summer.  I envisioned him off the bench spreading the floor next to Powell's rim running.  Now, Powell is a starter and Maxi isn't much of a rim runner.  I still think it can work.  Everyone knows Bertans doesn't play D (so maybe being next to Maxi isn't so bad).  Yet, he tends to be a positive net contributor to winning over his history.  The On Minus Off's the three years prior to this one have been +10.6, +7.9 and +6.4.  The O ratings when he was on the floor were crazy good.  I don't mind having him in this role either.  I'd just feel better if we got something else of value in the deal.


Where We Go From Here

Well, we better hope the recent excellent play we've been getting from Powell continues (he was +13 last night against a center who easily overpowers him in the paint).  As I pointed out recently, he's had a ton of double digit plus games against playoff teams in the past six weeks.  That was kind of fun when it was optional and KP was returning any day.  Now, it is a necessity.  

I assume we'll continue with the current starting five and bring Maxi off the bench.  He HAS TO STAY HEALTHY.  His role as backup to both Powell and DFS at C and PF is critical.  Chriss isn't ready for prime time yet.  Bertans and SD will ease the minutes burden some (DFS was over 40 and Luka was almost 40 last night).  I could see Maxi starting and Bertans off the bench, but we don't really have a viable alternative at center besides DP and Maxi (so they probably share most of the minutes at C).

The bench then is Maxi/Bertans/Green/Dinwiddie playing with a starter until THJ returns and likely takes minutes from Green.  I'm pleased there are still developmental minutes for Green.  We have a fairly obvious top 10 with everyone healthy and lots of ways to mix and match.  I'd feel much better if we had another viable PNR big like Holmes, but the way we run things, bigs aren't the only ones setting picks and we don't always play for the roll (looking forward to the Luka/Bertans pick and pop...how do you stop that?).

I still think we will win a lot of regular season games and will be favored in the first round.  The issue is what happens when we see Phoenix or GS in the second round.  We can take Ayton away, but it requires helping off of a really good player.  We are a year away from losing DP and Maxi in free agency.  They will be 32 and 31 the summer of 23.  I think job number one this summer is to get some help there in the middle.  We may find that THJ isn't needed any more and maybe we trade him and 22 and something else for a big (From a scheme standpoint, I'm curious if we want a shot blocker occupying the paint or a mobile guy who switches well).  

While it is true that it may be easier to deal two smaller bad contracts than one monstrous bad contract, it is still difficult to see an assets based path to a second star unless that second star forces their way here.  We won't have the full MLE to play with, so player(s) plus pick(s) is the path to improvement and I'm not sure we could realistically trade for a second star given those assets.  I'll be surprised if we do much more than just fringe improvements.

This is how I see the roster currently.  No gaping holes, but still short of a second guy you have to game plan for.  This starting group has been successful lately (but probably doesn't frighten a top four seed).  I do think the bench will be MUCH better.

Powell/Maxi
DFS/Bertans
Bullock/Green (THJ)
Brunson/Dinwiddie
Luka/Dinwiddie