11-03-2021, 11:39 AM
(11-02-2021, 10:34 PM)Kammrath Wrote: That is not how you interpret those numbers. Those are incorrect conclusions. The numbers are not saying what you just said.
In his respective role, WCS has been very successful this season with helping the team outscore the opponent. In his respective role, Luka has been very unsuccessful this season in helping the team outscore the opponent. That does not mean you can switch their roles and get the same result.
It is a fact that DAL is getting outscored significantly in seven games when Luka plays. That doesn't mean Luka should be benched and someone else would do better. Again, those would be lazy and false conclusions that the numbers are not saying. But it does mean that the team's best player in his current role is not resulting in outscoring the opponent. This almost never happened with Dirk, and it happens with Luka at an alarming rate so far in his early career.
The numbers don't really say how well a player is doing in his respective role either. That is a narrative you are pulling from a small sample that does not exist. In a small sample those numbers are more about the other 4 guys you are generally playing with and the 5 guys you are playing against. In a small sample they are also heavily influenced by high variance 3 point percentage (on both sides). You have mentioned that you don't expect this team to shoot 31% from 3 for the rest of the year. We see numbers like that because it is a small sample. It is even smaller sample in +/- because a player does not play every minute of the game (and in WCS case less than half).
Honestly I think there is a limit to what you can get out of raw +/- even for an entire season. It is heavily affected by the quality of players you generally play with, and also the quality of players you play against (starter or bench). I find something like RPM more useful because it at least takes into account those variables, but it still needs a huge sample (potentially multiple years) to get a good picture.