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(04-12-2021, 12:46 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: Careful, Kamm is going to come after you for that one
In DeRozan´s case we have a 864 regular season games sample size. 0.0 on court rating, -2.8 on/off. 12 seasons. Only one with a positive on/off impact (11/12 +3.9). We also have a large sample size (6 seasons) of Lowry playing on the same team. He was a net positive in every single season except for 17/18.
Even more obvious in the playoffs. Again. Not a single season with positive net impact. -7.9 on court. -11.6 on/off. For comparisation: Lowry again with a positive on/off rating in every single one of their playoff runs.
DeRozan´s numbers aren´t a fluke. That´s the story of his entire career.
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(04-12-2021, 12:41 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: Just watching the game reinforces to me that its a worthless stat
It's not a stat you should look at for a single game (although if you were going to read anything into it, it would be that we didn't lose this game due to DR great offense as much as our bench shitting the bed while DR was off the court), but over a large enough sample (last several years) it shows some things that the eye test tends to miss. It's easy to see him make a lot of shots and clutch shots at the end of the game to look really good. Its much harder to see the impact of his lack of spacing on the offense or his terrible impact on defense. He is considered a "star" but he doesn't really provide star impact to overall team performance.
None of this really matters as I don't see him wanting to come here and play second fiddle to Luka. My guess is he would rather go to a team where he can run the show or ring chase, neither of which applies to us.
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Also don't you think it matters that DR would be the third best player on this team when for his career he has been the best player on his team?
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(04-12-2021, 01:12 PM)mvossman Wrote: It's not a stat you should look at for a single game (although if you were going to read anything into it, it would be that we didn't lose this game due to DR great offense as much as our bench shitting the bed while DR was off the court), but over a large enough sample (last several years) it shows some things that the eye test tends to miss. It's easy to see him make a lot of shots and clutch shots at the end of the game to look really good. Its much harder to see the impact of his lack of spacing on the offense or his terrible impact on defense. He is considered a "star" but he doesn't really provide star impact to overall team performance.
None of this really matters as I don't see him wanting to come here and play second fiddle to Luka. My guess is he would rather go to a team where he can run the show or ring chase, neither of which applies to us.
Well THJ was -17 for that game with his 2 points so the lens I look at it is a major upgrade to THJ's spot.
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(04-12-2021, 12:41 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: Just watching the game reinforces to me that its a worthless stat Worthless might be too strong a word but yeah it’s generally not useful. Sometimes +/- for a particular guy will stand out for a good reason and may tell you that that player is better/worse than the box score suggests. It’s also useful for comparing high end players apples to apples. Just like with most stats the context of game script and how that player is used is important. It’s difficult to use it to compare bench players and starters because the difference in competition they play against. Maybe the other teams bench is terrible but their starters are elite so the numbers are skewed. Guys that sub into the game every time the other teams star player goes in so they can guard them, it doesn’t factor that in. Just look at last night with Derozan. He and Luka were in the game at the same time mostly. Derozan obviously had a huge impact on them winning but when you’re out there all game against Luka your +/- will take a hit
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To take a break from DR talk, another guy that is available and probably for cheap would be Dinwiddie. Coming off of an injury I am not sure what he can expect to get. His numbers are not amazing.
Last year pre-injury, pre-KD & Harden when he was getting a lot of burn he had 20 ppg, 7 FTA and almost 7 APG which would be useful of the bench. Given his situation he could be a guy towards the back half of Mavs A-Z list if/when both Mavs and Dinwiddie's other options dry up.
I think the appeal with Dinwiddie would be getting a third player this offseason on a team-friendly deal that does pass and get to the free throw line.
Offseason would be like:
- J Rich or comparable "defensive" player
- THJ or comparable shooter
- Dinwiddie as your additional scorer, driver, passer
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(04-12-2021, 01:28 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: To take a break from DR talk, another guy that is available and probably for cheap would be Dinwiddie. Coming off of an injury I am not sure what he can expect to get. His numbers are not amazing.
Last year pre-injury, pre-KD & Harden when he was getting a lot of burn he had 20 ppg, 7 FTA and almost 7 APG which would be useful of the bench. Given his situation he could be a guy towards the back half of Mavs A-Z list if/when both Mavs and Dinwiddie's other options dry up.
I think the appeal with Dinwiddie would be getting a third player this offseason on a team-friendly deal that does pass and get to the free throw line.
Offseason would be like:
- J Rich or comparable "defensive" player
- THJ or comparable shooter
- Dinwiddie as your additional scorer, driver, passer I like it as an outside the box option. I’ve tried to find the exact CBA rules regarding trading for someone like that and including SnT guys but it’s unclear what the rules are. If it’s legal:
Mavs get: Dinwiddie after he opts in plus a 2nd rd pick
Nets get: Redick(1 yr $5 million) and Burke
Nets do it to get the depth they need.
Mavs could either keep him or flip him at the deadline for more assets
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(04-12-2021, 01:49 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: I like it as an outside the box option. I’ve tried to find the exact CBA rules regarding trading for someone like that and including SnT guys but it’s unclear what the rules are. If it’s legal:
Mavs get: Dinwiddie after he opts in plus a 2nd rd pick
Nets get: Redick(1 yr $5 million) and Burke
Nets do it to get the depth they need.
Mavs could either keep him or flip him at the deadline for more assets
I forgot Dinwiddie has an opt-in. Given his current situation it would be probably be better for him to opt-in and get traded to a team that has more use for him and would retain his bird rights. If he goes out into the open market then he probably isn't going to get better than a team-friendly deal.
J Rich is a question mark because he might know that he's basically an MLE-level player at this stage so he could opt-out to get a multi-year deal at MLE or slightly higher. I think Dinwiddie believes he is a better player and would want a chance to improve his value.
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(04-12-2021, 01:03 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: In DeRozan´s case we have a 864 regular season games sample size. 0.0 on court rating, -2.8 on/off. 12 seasons. Only one with a positive on/off impact (11/12 +3.9). We also have a large sample size (6 seasons) of Lowry playing on the same team. He was a net positive in every single season except for 17/18.
Even more obvious in the playoffs. Again. Not a single season with positive net impact. -7.9 on court. -11.6 on/off. For comparisation: Lowry again with a positive on/off rating in every single one of their playoff runs.
DeRozan´s numbers aren´t a fluke. That´s the story of his entire career.
Was just making a light hearted comment in jest. I agree that DeRozan has been an underwhelming player for the majority of his career, as you pointed out. Thought the gave my tone away.
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
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(04-12-2021, 02:39 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: Was just making a light hearted comment in jest. I agree that DeRozan has been an underwhelming player for the majority of his career, as you pointed out. Thought the gave my tone away.
He doesn't underwhelm when he plays the Mavs. Drops 30 on us almost every game.
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(04-12-2021, 02:58 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: Get ready for disappointment:
https://twitter.com/massey_evan/status/1...0205058056 We’ve talked this summers group of FA/RFA to death. Any idea outside of Brad Beal the next group of players that could be traded would be?
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I don't want to lose Hardaway. He has found a nice role here, but I am having trouble thinking how we make the next jump brining him back and upgrading the starting unit to the level I think is needed.
I was hoping for an offseason like losing Hardaway and Richardson but gaining Derozan and Richaun Holmes. I am not sure if both fit into the cap room we have. It may be close. Would Derozan and Holmes fit in well here with our current starting lineup?
Backup bigs will be Maxi (high minute bench player) and Powell. Jalen would be your bench guard. You would be short on wings, but it would allow you to force feed minutes to Green. Green may not be ready, but in my opinion it is not a good sign if he is not getting consistent minutes next year. So I don't want to box him out of playing time. It also may give a chance for Terry and Hinton, if they are around, to win playing time as the season progresses. I would also try to bring in a veteran wing at the minimum. Someone in the Accountant talent level or maybe a little better.
Is it a perfect team...no. But I would then lean on Donnie to fill around the edges. Find the next DFS. Find the next Maxi...etc. This team needs to be trying to win a championship next year. I don't feel like bringing the gang back and adding an MLE gets us close enough.
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(04-12-2021, 03:17 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: We’ve talked this summers group of FA/RFA to death. Any idea outside of Brad Beal the next group of players that could be traded would be?
Any of the RFA's to me have S&T potential. don't know which ones are the likliest out of Collins, Lonzo plus some of the lesser names.
Any of the Kings guys, Hield, Barnes could be sold off. Rumors with Indy players started at the TDL, Brogdan would be a dream trade if you could get him. Hawks could sell off one or more of their vets (Bog, Gallo). Celtics will be actively trying to dump Walker somewhere. Cavs will be shopping Love. Magic have Ross who has value. OKC has Horford that they will be shopping.
Out of that list I like Hield who to me is more consistent than THJ (and his contract isn't terrible imo), Gallo, Bog are okay but sort of lateral moves, Ross would be a really good get. I like his fit and contract.
Not a ton of big needle movers which is still why I like DeRozan over a lot of other options.
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(04-12-2021, 03:46 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: I was hoping for an offseason like losing Hardaway and Richardson but gaining Derozan and Richaun Holmes. I am not sure if both fit into the cap room we have. It may be close. Would Derozan and Holmes fit in well here with our current starting lineup?
I know this board is all ab Holmes but I don't see why the Mavs would spend a lot of money on Holmes when we have KP as the starting center. I expect Holmes to get a starting gig somewhere for more money than the Mavs would want to spend on that position. With Maxi, KP and Powell (slowly getting back to form) I think that is enough of a big rotation that the Mavs are going to spend dollars on guards and wings, not bigs.
DR I like but to me if you are adding another significant piece its not going to be a big.
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(04-12-2021, 12:19 PM)StepBackJay Wrote:
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The Ringer guys seem to think most of the big names are at their final destination and we’re entering a period where there won’t be near as much player movement. Beal being an exception. This summer seems important because for as light as this summer’s FA crop has become the summer 2022 crop is even lighter.
If you look at most of the contenders they’ve mostly gone all in and can’t afford to blow up their team even if it’s not enough(LA teams, UTA, BYK, PHI, MKE, DEN, POR, GSW). All those teams traded away their picks and seem all in for multiple future years. BOS, MIA, PHX and DAL seem to have more assets but are good teams looking to buy. Up and coming young teams looking to buy like ATL, CHA, NYK, CHI, SAS, MEM, MIN. OKC will probably be buyers soon. HOU and DET are devoid of talent. ORL just had a fire sale. WAS has nothing outside of Beal.
Teams that could/should blow it up at some point in the next 2 years seem like: Indy, Toronto, Cleveland, New Orleans and Sacramento. Indy and Toronto make the most sense. Lots of pressure and young guys on those other teams so maybe they just sell off smaller pieces. So Brogdon, Turner, OG, Siakim, Heild, Sexton seem like the best players that could be moved
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(04-12-2021, 04:35 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: Brogdon, Turner, OG, Siakim, Heild,
All would be useful on the Mavs, we just don't have assets to obtain them without hamstring ourselves in the future when better names might become available. I guess if KP is really on the block this offseason which I'm still skeptical about, Toronto or Indy might be useful trade partners. Siakim for KP as the foundation of a trade of theorized about.
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(04-12-2021, 11:48 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: Well said, and I 100% agree with every word here.
However, I can't help but feel like the catch and shoot game (not at a Redick level, but hopefully better than DeRozan's) is a necessary component of this hypothetical added creator. Otherwise, you'll be making a new problem to solve the one you have now. Yes, on-ball Luka needs to be lessened some, for a variety of reasons, but I can't envision any scenario (that improves the team) in which it's not still the most often used approach.
I think a guy with DeRozan's game could help, but imho, not him, specifically, due to age, cost and his deserved feeling that he's an All-Star level player who should start and have the ball in his hands a LOT. I mean, if he wants to come here and play 25 minutes per, maybe even off the bench, AWESOME! But, I think he probably has his eyes on a role similar to Luka's, only on a team that doesn't have a Luka. Just my opinion, tho. If that’s the role he wants then he doesn’t want to come here and it’s all a moot point.
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(04-12-2021, 06:01 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: If that’s the role he wants then he doesn’t want to come here and it’s all a moot point.
Agreed.
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