MAVS NEWS:

[Chicagojk]

LockedOn mentioned Mark Williams as a recent comp for Lively and his situation.

Williams was the 15th pick in the 2022 draft. 
He played 43 games -- 19 games -- 44 games his first 3 years. A total of 106. 
He averaged 23.7 mpg, 12.3 ppg, 8.8 rbs, 1.1 blk, 0.7 stl, 1.4 ast.
He did not get extended. 
Played 60 games in year 4 and it led to a contract of 3 years - $38M ($12.6M AAV), which he just signed, as a restricted FA, on July 7th.

Lively was the 12th pick in the 2023 draft. 
He played 55 games -- 36 games -- 7 games his first 3 years. A total of 98. 
He averaged 22.9 mpg, 8.4 ppg, 7.0 rbs, 1.5 blk, 0.6 stl, 1.6 ast.


Williams was able to play a career high in games, last year - year 4 (60), which led to a 3-year $38M deal. I think Lively is the better defensive player. Not quite as good offensively. Both were near-lottery picks in back-to-back years, and both have battled injuries/missed games. I think it was a good comp from the LockedOn guys.

Nice comparison.   Both have been injured.    Lively a little more so.    Agree on the offense and defense comparison of both.    Lively was a key positive in a deep playoff run while Williams only has one playoff series on his resume.

Anyway, sure there is risk to an extension.   If it can be agreed upon a extension near Williams number is not cap killing if Lively cannot stay healthy.  It potentially could be a boom if he stays healthy though.

[Chicagojk]

Maybe a more interesting question is has Dallas approached either Max or Marshall for contract extensions groundwork?

[Smitty]

Wanted to give a general recap of where things stand at this point in the offseason... 

Mavs currently have 15 guaranteed contracts and 1 non-guaranteed contract. 

Cisse, the NGT contract: Year 1 total: $2,185,116. Of which, $1,092,558 (half) becomes guaranteed on 9/1/26. The other half becomes guaranteed on 10/1/26.


Accounting for all 16 contracts, it puts the Mavs at $197,866,095 in total salaries. $3,211,216 of which is dead money. The Mavs have this year and next of carrying McGee and Omax on the cap sheet.


Accounting for a small tax variance for Cisse, it leaves the Mavs with $2,297,601 of room below the Tax Line.
Accounting for Martin's ULTBE, it leaves the Mavs with $9,540,016 below the first Arpon, which is a hard cap they cannot exceed.

The Mavs still have some exceptions:
NTMLE: $12,044,000
AD TPE: $7,004,114
Hardy TPE: $2,909,520
Nemby TPE: $2,150,917


They have used the maximum of (3) Two-Way contracts on Jett Howard, Tobi Lawal, and retained John Poulakidas from last year. Vsevolod Ishchenko remains unsigned.


The extension eligible players are: Lively, Christie, Marshall, Sasser. Klay and Martin are as well, but we can assume that's not really an option. 

Marshall will be a UFA next summer, if not extended. Christie can be a UFA next summer by declining his player option. Lively and Sasser will be restricted free agents, if not extended.


Another looming decision that's not been talked about yet is Kyrie... He can opt out of his player option next summer and become a UFA. Sure, he can do what he did prior to this most recent contract... Opt out and sign another "team friendly" 3-year deal. Or he can just opt out and leave for free. As of now, up to 9 teams are projected to have significant cap space next summer.

@KeithSmithNBA
Some way-too-early 2027 cap space projections:

1. Nets: $68.6M
2. Bulls: $55.6M
3. Clippers: $53.8M (could be $92.2M w/o Kawhi trade)
4. Pistons: $43.9M (w/o long-term deal for Duren)
5. Bucks: $43.3M
6. Hawks: $37.8M
7. Grizzlies: $36.5M
8. Kings: $31.5M
9. Warriors: $28.1M

[F Gump]

Someone in the Discord pointed out DL2 is a Klutch client. Nothing to see here as far as an extension actually happening.

Just for comparative purposes, isn't Peyton Watson also with them?

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Just for comparative purposes, isn't Peyton Watson also with them?

Spotrac says Peyton Watson's agent is Jeff Schwartz

[F Gump]

LockedOn mentioned Mark Williams as a recent comp for Lively and his situation.

Williams was the 15th pick in the 2022 draft. 
He played 43 games -- 19 games -- 44 games his first 3 years. A total of 106. 
He averaged 23.7 mpg, 12.3 ppg, 8.8 rbs, 1.1 blk, 0.7 stl, 1.4 ast.
He did not get extended. 
Played 60 games in year 4 and it led to a contract of 3 years - $38M ($12.6M AAV), which he just signed, as a restricted FA, on July 7th.

Lively was the 12th pick in the 2023 draft. 
He played 55 games -- 36 games -- 7 games his first 3 years. A total of 98. 
He averaged 22.9 mpg, 8.4 ppg, 7.0 rbs, 1.5 blk, 0.6 stl, 1.6 ast.


Williams was able to play a career high in games, last year - year 4 (60), which led to a 3-year $38M deal. I think Lively is the better defensive player. Not quite as good offensively. Both were near-lottery picks in back-to-back years, and both have battled injuries/missed games. I think it was a good comp from the LockedOn guys.

VERY informative. It's really helpful to have a context that isn't primarily "he had that one good playoff run" to use as the thinking for a new deal. Thanks. 

That Williams 3/38 would be starting at around 12. And seems to me the comp is so similar that it might have been something the Mavs could have used as the basis for those recent extension talks. Not a lowball offer but just a fmv market value deal.

[FireNicoHarrison]

3/38 is good deal for either Mavs and Lively

[DanSchwartzgan]

LockedOn mentioned Mark Williams as a recent comp for Lively and his situation.

Williams was the 15th pick in the 2022 draft. 
He played 43 games -- 19 games -- 44 games his first 3 years. A total of 106. 
He averaged 23.7 mpg, 12.3 ppg, 8.8 rbs, 1.1 blk, 0.7 stl, 1.4 ast.
He did not get extended. 
Played 60 games in year 4 and it led to a contract of 3 years - $38M ($12.6M AAV), which he just signed, as a restricted FA, on July 7th.

Lively was the 12th pick in the 2023 draft. 
He played 55 games -- 36 games -- 7 games his first 3 years. A total of 98. 
He averaged 22.9 mpg, 8.4 ppg, 7.0 rbs, 1.5 blk, 0.6 stl, 1.6 ast.


Williams was able to play a career high in games, last year - year 4 (60), which led to a 3-year $38M deal. I think Lively is the better defensive player. Not quite as good offensively. Both were near-lottery picks in back-to-back years, and both have battled injuries/missed games. I think it was a good comp from the LockedOn guys.

I appreciate the work on this (and the work you do keeping where things stand up to date).  I'll take the over on an AAV of the Mark Williams contract.  I really don't think peak Lively is comparable with peak Williams (despite what the counting stats say).  I'd also take the over on Gafford's deal as the benchmark.  Those thinking Lively will do a deal at a low amount just to get some security are likely to be disappointed IMHO.

I don't think Dallas, if they do an extension this year, will solve the issue with low dollars.  I think there will be a discount to full value for locking this in early (as is typical - more security sooner deserves some give up on the players part).  I think they will solve the medical concerns with contract stipulations like we've seen with other players.  In fact, I bet Lively's guaranteed amount, if all falls apart on him, will be more than what Williams got.  

I think any deal will aspire to pay Lively what he's worth in the ideal while protecting the team's downside if he's just a brittle guy.  I'm not sure I'd do anything right now, but if I did, it wouldn't be an effort to leverage an advantage because of his recent health.  He is our third best player when healthy, and next in line isn't that close.

[Smitty]

I'll take the over on an AAV of the Mark Williams contract.

Then I don't think an extension is feasible. Just let him play out the year. Prove he can play 65+ games. See what offers he gets as a RFA, and decide if you want to match or not... Or do a SnT like the Kessler deal. Even at ~$12M AAV, he could end up being a negative value contract, if he continues missing so many games.

[Scott41theMavs]

Then I don't think an extension is feasible. Just let him play out the year. Prove he can play 65+ games. See what offers he gets as a RFA, and decide if you want to match or not... Or do a SnT like the Kessler deal. Even at ~$12M AAV, he could end up being a negative value contract, if he continues missing so many games.

It's really a tough issue. If Lively becomes a healthy player with very rare injuries for the rest of his career, he's a top five big man in this league. His switchability on the perimeter defensively makes him a rare (big) bird indeed. And if they start letting him shoot the 3, and he can hit it consistently at 35%+, he has even more value. On the other hand, he might be Greg Oden. A healthy year this year might land him a $20 mil AAV offer sheet which the Mavs are leery (not "weary," folks - that means tired) of matching. Watch him become our next Brunson story - or watch the team who signed him fall into the abyss because they have that much money tied up in a guy who never plays.

To me, $12 mil AAV would be a no-brainer for the Mavs, if they have a competent medical staff who can sign off. That, DallasMaverick, is one of the main reasons I don't want them to settle for anything less than a top 5 medical staff. 

And as a side note, you (DM) may be poo-pooing the idea that the Mavs' medical staff was abominable the past two years. Zero other folks in sports media and Dallas fandom is doing that. Perhaps it's because of the Lively debacle + the AD debacle + the fact that no other team had as many injury absences as the Mavs last year. Might be something to that, no?

Perhaps your agenda is having a family member on the medical staff. Or maybe you yourself are on the current medical staff. Hmmm...

[Smitty]

It's really a tough issue. If Lively becomes a healthy player with very rare injuries for the rest of his career, he's a top five big man in this league. His switchability on the perimeter defensively makes him a rare (big) bird indeed. And if they start letting him shoot the 3, and he can hit it consistently at 35%+, he has even more value. On the other hand, he might be Greg Oden. A healthy year this year might land him a $20 mil AAV offer sheet which the Mavs are leery (not "weary," folks - that means tired) of matching. Watch him become our next Brunson story - or watch the team who signed him fall into the abyss because they have that much money tied up in a guy who never plays.

To me, $12 mil AAV would be a no-brainer for the Mavs, if they have a competent medical staff who can sign off. That, DallasMaverick, is one of the main reasons I don't want them to settle for anything less than a top 5 medical staff. 

And as a side note, you (DM) may be poo-pooing the idea that the Mavs' medical staff was abominable the past two years. Zero other folks in sports media and Dallas fandom is doing that. Perhaps it's because of the Lively debacle + the AD debacle + the fact that no other team had as many injury absences as the Mavs last year. Might be something to that, no?

Perhaps your agenda is having a family member on the medical staff. Or maybe you yourself are on the current medical staff. Hmmm...

I have zero opinion of any medical staff. Have probably never mentioned it. Not sure what you're talking about... I think players get injured. I think some players are more prone to injuries than others. I have no clue who is great at being a medical professional or who isn't. Who can help prevent injuries or who can't. I'm an engineer, not a doctor...

[Scott41theMavs]

I have zero opinion of any medical staff. Have probably never mentioned it. Not sure what you're talking about... I think players get injured. I think some players are more prone to injuries than others. I have no clue who is great at being a medical professional or who isn't. Who can help prevent injuries or who can't. I'm an engineer, not a doctor...

Was referring to DallasMaverick, not you, my friend.

[DallasMaverick]

It's really a tough issue. If Lively becomes a healthy player with very rare injuries for the rest of his career, he's a top five big man in this league. His switchability on the perimeter defensively makes him a rare (big) bird indeed. And if they start letting him shoot the 3, and he can hit it consistently at 35%+, he has even more value. On the other hand, he might be Greg Oden. A healthy year this year might land him a $20 mil AAV offer sheet which the Mavs are leery (not "weary," folks - that means tired) of matching. Watch him become our next Brunson story - or watch the team who signed him fall into the abyss because they have that much money tied up in a guy who never plays.

To me, $12 mil AAV would be a no-brainer for the Mavs, if they have a competent medical staff who can sign off. That, DallasMaverick, is one of the main reasons I don't want them to settle for anything less than a top 5 medical staff. 

And as a side note, you (DM) may be poo-pooing the idea that the Mavs' medical staff was abominable the past two years. Zero other folks in sports media and Dallas fandom is doing that. Perhaps it's because of the Lively debacle + the AD debacle + the fact that no other team had as many injury absences as the Mavs last year. Might be something to that, no?

Perhaps your agenda is having a family member on the medical staff. Or maybe you yourself are on the current medical staff. Hmmm...

Yes.

I'm actually Dr. Kevorkian.

Anthing I can help you with?

[DanSchwartzgan]

Then I don't think an extension is feasible. Just let him play out the year. Prove he can play 65+ games. See what offers he gets as a RFA, and decide if you want to match or not... Or do a SnT like the Kessler deal. Even at ~$12M AAV, he could end up being a negative value contract, if he continues missing so many games.

That’s probably the most likely outcome.

I think the least likely outcome is a $12mm AAV bargain.  In between are numbers more in line with what he has already proven he can do and numbers even higher that are based on his projection, but come with some team protections.

[BigDirk41]

Unless Lively wants stability at a reasonable rate of 10-12 per year, I say make him earn it this year. The Mavs should not be comfortable handing him a huge contract regardless of his potential. Availability is what we need. For all the great things that he can do, it doesn't matter if he doesn't actually do it. I bet they make him play this season out and make him earn it and I'm totally good with that. It will be good for him to actually earn his next contract instead of it being handed to him.

[F Gump]

DS, while I see the reasoning in giving Lively a "full value" deal rather than trying to
do a lowball offer, I'm not of the belief that a player's full value is defined by his best game (or his best small stretch of games). I think a deal based on somthing like that would be WAY ABOVE his actual full value, because every player has highs and lows.

It's the ability to repeat that high level, game after game, that merits the bigger deal.

In his BEST year (ie his peak), he played less than 1/3 of the center minutes that season. In my book, you cant pay 20M or more for such a relatively minor contribution, even though he mostly played well when he played, because with the hard caps you will run out of money to pay the players who are doing your heavy lifting minutes-wise.

[Scott41theMavs]

Unless Lively wants stability at a reasonable rate of 10-12 per year, I say make him earn it this year. The Mavs should not be comfortable handing him a huge contract regardless of his potential. Availability is what we need. For all the great things that he can do, it doesn't matter if he doesn't actually do it. I bet they make him play this season out and make him earn it and I'm totally good with that. It will be good for him to actually earn his next contract instead of it being handed to him.

At least one other poster has noted - even if he plays 65 games (and all of any playoff games they might have) this year, that still may be fool's good in terms of future availability, and will only result in him getting an offer sheet which the Mavs would be arguably nuts to match. If the Mavs can't get him to sign a lowball extension which isn't really lowball, their best hope might be that he plays about 40 games this year and that they can extend him quite cheaply next summer - perhaps to a one-year make-good contract that still maintains his Bird rights the following year.

[michaeltex]

On a side note...

Just watched a YouTube video that talked about Flagg having grown two inches in the last year and he now measures at 6'11".

Is this true? Has it been mentioned before and I just missed it? Same video also claimed Stephon Castle has put on 2".

Just checking.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Lots of wishful thinking when it comes to Dereck Lively. I hope the best for him but I'm not touching any of the numbers expressed in this thread. Also think people are severely overrating him even when he is healthy. He is a good starting center but lets stop with the top 5 center in the league stuff.

He has a $7 million team option for next season. Then we still control him through restricted free agency. I dont see the need to offer him an extension.

edit: I understand it's being discussed because of reports the Mavs are talking to him. I just offer my own basketball opinions, instead of trying to connect the dots. My brain doesn't work that way. I see reports of Klay wanting to go to Miami. Then people come with 75 different trade ideas and scenarios involving Nikola Jovic. Or Clippers need a center so we come with 75 trade scenarios for Ben Mathurin. I have a simple mind. I don't want Jovic or Mathurin. No need to go through 75 different scenarios.

[BigDirk41]

At least one other poster has noted - even if he plays 65 games (and all of any playoff games they might have) this year, that still may be fool's good in terms of future availability, and will only result in him getting an offer sheet which the Mavs would be arguably nuts to match. If the Mavs can't get him to sign a lowball extension which isn't really lowball, their best hope might be that he plays about 40 games this year and that they can extend him quite cheaply next summer - perhaps to a one-year make-good contract that still maintains his Bird rights the following year.

I'm completely fine with losing Lively if he's not affordable. I never factor him in anymore. I don't think he's a great player like some are stating. He's a real talented young player that has shown some brilliant flashes and a nice playoff run. There's a lot of stuff that he isn't and reliable is at the top of that list unfortunately.