2026 NBA draft thread

[Smitty]

If Burries is still there at 12, fine, but...we seem to be accepting the idea that trading down with OKC will automatically net 17 as the prize. I know OKC wants to consolidate for a dozen different reasons, but it occurs to me that they might want to use 17 in a different deal. I feel like it's maybe not the safest assumption that 9 for 12 and 17 is available to the Mavs.

I actually agree. Which is why I avoided talking about 17 all together in that post. I actually typed up something about 17 possibly not being part of it and deleted it bc I didn’t want it to take away from my real point that Klutch would need to get Burries to 12 in this trade back hypothetical.

If Hawks go Mara, I don’t even think it’s available to them. This was just an exercise in what could play out. The way I see it anyway.

[KillerLeft]

I could buy that scenario, but Lendeborg might be a little iffy there. He's the one guy that could make you sweat if you're trying to get Burries at 12. Ament is a safe bet for one of those spots I think, but I'm not sure about Lendeborg.

Agreed, honestly. If I'm not mistaken, that 2nd skipped pick would be GS, and I'd bet real money they're into Lendeborg because he's the guy they expect to be there. I wouldn't trust them to let Burries get by, honestly.

[KillerLeft]

I actually agree. Which is why I avoided talking about 17 all together in that post. I actually typed up something about 17 possibly not being part of it and deleted it bc I didn’t want it to take away from my real point that Klutch would need to get Burries to 12 in this trade back hypothetical.

If Hawks go Mara, I don’t even think it’s available to them. This was just an exercise in what could play out. The way I see it anyway.

The other thing I don't get is this: IF Mara is the target, why would OKC even be worried about trading up? I reeeeeaaaaaalllly don't think he's in danger of getting picked before 12, especially if he gets by ATL (he will, I bet). My guess is that their target is someone else...like Burries.

[Smitty]

The other thing I don't get is this: IF Mara is the target, why would OKC even be worried about trading up? I reeeeeaaaaaalllly don't think he's in danger of getting picked before 12.

I could see GS picking him OR a team trading up to 11 with GS for Mara. 

OKC trades up to MAKE SURE they get the guy they’ve identified. (If we are to believe the rumors). I’m skeptical.

[ballsrchr]

Yeah, Steinbach seems interesting, but he's about as far from ideal as you can get with this opportunity for the Mavs, imo. His whole highlight package is him doing stuff Cooper Flagg should be doing. 

I really, really hope they're not about to put nothing but forwards on the floor again this year.

I'm with you on this.  We already have P.J. Washington, and as much as I like him, he hasn't learned how to play with Flagg.    I'm one of the few who thinks we need a real point guard on the floor.  Kyrie isn't a real point guard.  He can do it but it isn't ideal.  I just hope for the best point guard available...

[KillerLeft]

I could see GS picking him OR a team trading up to 11 with GS for Mara. 

OKC trades up to MAKE SURE they get the guy they’ve identified. (If we are to believe the rumors). I’m skeptical.

Another team trading up is a possibility. Good call. 

I just don't get what anyone sees in that dude. Tough for me to wrap my head around someone feeling the need to spend an asset to get him, but I suppose beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

[Mavs2021]

I actually agree. Which is why I avoided talking about 17 all together in that post. I actually typed up something about 17 possibly not being part of it and deleted it bc I didn’t want it to take away from my real point that Klutch would need to get Burries to 12 in this trade back hypothetical.

How could #17 not be part of any deal? Is Masai Ujiri just giving OKC the ninth pick for #12 and the bad contracts of Joe/Wiggins, cause of reasons. I think Presti already received his Mavs gift, when Nico gave him our 2025 NBA championship.

Obviously every Thunder trade up deal (with any team) will involve at least #12 and #17. Some even suggested #37 will be added, too.

Of course if they throw in Jalen Williams or Chet Holmgren, they can keep #17.

[Smitty]

How could #17 not be part of any deal? Is Masai Ujiri just giving OKC the ninth pick for #12 and the bad contracts of Joe/Wiggins, cause of reasons. I think Presti already received his Mavs gift, when Nico gave him our 2025 NBA championship.

Obviously every Thunder trade up deal (with any team) will involve at least #12 and #17. Some even suggested #37 will be added, too.

Of course if they throw in Jalen Williams or Chet Holmgren, they can keep #17.

Because the Thunder have many many many other assets. Pick 17 is the here and now one, but the Thunder may have that one tied up in another deal? OKC could trade 12 and a future first and our swap back PLUS if they wanted to. 17 doesn’t have to be in any deal. Of course, I would want it because I like more picks NOW!

[KillerLeft]

Obviously every Thunder trade up deal (with any team) will involve at least #12 and #17. Some even suggested #37 will be added, too. 

I'm not so sure. It's possible, but they also have 1,000 tradable 1sts over the next decade. I can see them wanting to give a future 1st (or even 2) instead of this year's 17, especially if it's being used in another deal. I'm just saying, assumptions are dangerous. 

Around here, "we" have a long history of claiming "they should've just done that ____ deal" without ever truly knowing whether "that ____ deal" was a real option.

[Mavs2021]

I could see GS picking him OR a team trading up to 11 with GS for Mara. 

Bingo. GS needs a "win now" frontcourt player. That´s either Mara or Lendeborg, but OKC specifically needs a cheap competitor for Wembanyama, which makes Mara more valuable to them than Lendeborg.

Also there is always the danger of GS doing a win-now trade that enables another team to jump into #11. Utah with Markkanen would obviously be no threat to pick Mara, but maybe there is a darkhorse.

We can only hope Atlanta does not pick Mara. At least we should be a little safer from OKC just trading up to the Hawks spot, cause the Mavs are a wildcard regarding Atlanta´s target. Atlanta wants Burries, Flemings or Ament, they can´t just do the trade down, cause they don´t know what Masai will do.

[KillerLeft]

I'm with you on this.  We already have P.J. Washington, and as much as I like him, he hasn't learned how to play with Flagg.    I'm one of the few who thinks we need a real point guard on the floor.  Kyrie isn't a real point guard.  He can do it but it isn't ideal.  I just hope for the best point guard available...

I don't know that I'm on the "real PG" wagon with you, because that would depend on your definition of that qualifier. But, I sure think they need to add multiple options that can handle the ball, present as a scoring threat and use that to set up others, and with Flagg being a forward and all guards currently on the roster either being 34 or Christie, well...it's pretty obvious where creation can be plugged in.

[KillerLeft]

Bingo. GS needs a "win now" frontcourt player. 

Well, then Mara should get by them, no problem.

[Mavs2021]

Because the Thunder have many many many other assets. Pick 17 is the here and now one, but the Thunder may have that one tied up in another deal? OKC could trade 12 and a future first and our swap back PLUS if they wanted to. 17 doesn’t have to be in any deal. Of course, I would want it because I like more picks NOW!

They actually do not have that many additional picks anymore, if RealGM is accurate.
2027: 
Clippers pick
Spurs protected 17-30 --> immediately turns into 2nd rounders.

2028:
Denver pick protected 6-30 (until 2030) --> converts into a 2nd rounder in 2030.
Mavs swap rights.  

That´s it until 2032. Of course they still have their own picks, but in terms of realistic outright additional picks they only have the Clippers pick next year. Maybe Denver/Jokic turns to crap before 2030.

[Chicagojk]

I think trade down talk is fun and exciting and could work out but it is also risky. Just give me the pick at 9 and then try to trade up a bit from 30. Leave with a eventual starter and an eventual rotation player. With a good cap sheet with tradeable pieces moving forwards. While trading back doubles your chances with picks, it also lowers the risk you get a core player.


That is my opinion. Schmitz job is to hit 9 and then work some magic with the second pick.

[Smitty]

I think trade down talk is fun and exciting and could work out but it is also risky.  Just give me the pick at 9 and then try to trade up a bit from 30.  Leave with a eventual starter and an eventual rotation player.  With a good cap sheet with tradeable pieces moving forwards.  While trading back doubles your chances with picks, it also lowers the risk you get a core player. 


That is my opinion.  Schmitz job is to hit 9 and then work some magic with the second pick.

Personally I would stick and pick at 9 because I like Burries and/or Flemings a bit more than the 10-12 guys. The idea of trading back is tied to Klutch being able to guide his guy to DAL at 12. Pretty much the exact scenario in the Lively draft.

The Mavs traded with OKC. From 10 down to 12. Rich Paul got Lively to 12.


OR we’re all wrong and they aren’t as high on Burries as we are. They could just as easily have one of the Wings or Bigs higher on their board. They could also have Okorie, Anderson, Philon, Stirtz higher. We don’t know anything!

[OBX Maverick]

Personally I would stick and pick at 9 because I like Burries and/or Flemings a bit more than the 10-12 guys. The idea of trading back is tied to Klutch being able to guide his guy to DAL at 12. Pretty much the exact scenario in the Lively draft.

The Mavs traded with OKC. From 10 down to 12. Rich Paul got Lively to 12.


OR we’re all wrong and they aren’t as high on Burries as we are. They could just as easily have one of the Wings or Bigs higher on their board. They could also have Okorie, Anderson, Philon, Stirtz higher. We don’t know anything!

If Masai can trade 9 +/- a current player for 12 and 17 while still being able to snag Burries at 12 due to the agent shenanigans I will kneel down before Masai on 6/23!

[Mavs2021]

Personally I would stick and pick at 9 because I like Burries and/or Flemings a bit more than the 10-12 guys. The idea of trading back is tied to Klutch being able to guide his guy to DAL at 12. Pretty much the exact scenario in the Lively draft.

The Mavs traded with OKC. From 10 down to 12. Rich Paul got Lively to 12.


OR we’re all wrong and they aren’t as high on Burries as we are. They could just as easily have one of the Wings or Bigs higher on their board. They could also have Okorie, Anderson, Philon, Stirtz higher. We don’t know anything!

I think that´s actually the scenario with the highest probability. At most two of the five guards will make it to #9 and they might not like either that much. 

If you rate Okorie, Anderson or Stirtz close enough to Burries/Flemings, that you have  no clear projection, who will be the better pro than picking up Johnson, Steinbach, Lopez, Carr or whoever at #12 and get one of the "2nd tier"guards at #17 is a no-brainer. At #17 you likely get to pick your top guy from the 2nd tier, while at #9 you will be digging in the 1st tier rummage goods, unless you rated Burries/Flemings higher than Brown, Wagler and Acuff initially.

[DanSchwartzgan]

The other thing I don't get is this: IF Mara is the target, why would OKC even be worried about trading up? I reeeeeaaaaaalllly don't think he's in danger of getting picked before 12, especially if he gets by ATL (he will, I bet). My guess is that their target is someone else...like Burries.

To your point - on the Locked On network wide draft, Dallas moved back for 12/17/I-Joe and OKC picked Burries.

To point people are making about 17 not necessarily being available, there are tons of things that could happen instead.  There is unwinding the future pick swap.  There is Topic.  There is PJ for something (the dream is Cason Wallace).

To the point of ATL taking the player OKC might want, that was why I was advocating trading up to 8 (and swapping Gafford for Risacher).  It wasn't necessarily to pick the second worst guard at 8.  It was to get the pick that might be more valuable to OKC in a trade-back.

[mvossman]

I seriously doubt OKC is looking to move up in the draft for Mara. What would possess them to think that a traditional drop back center is the way to compete with SA? Chet was absolutely terrible in that series, but the team was way worse when Hartenstein was on the court (-9.7 to -3). His two teammates make way more sense for OKC than Mara, and one of them will be there at 12.

[SleepingHero]

That hypothetical trade would not be legal as given (PJ for 12), but the legal version of any deal with OKC would obviously have a boatload of matching salary coming back from OKC, that could easily serve to satisfy their aim to shed salary (while also swapping 12 for PJ).

It was a framework, not the actual proposal. And yes, the Mavs eating Joe+Wiggins for 12 and our 2028 pick back is perfectly legal.

Whether or not OKC would do it depends on how badly they want to shed salary. But Im not sure why there is a pervasive narrative that PJ is a negative asset not worth an end of lotto FRP. Same with Gafford. (Not saying you are the one writing that, using you as more of a jump off point). 

Both are good players and fill needs for almost any playoff team and are on good contracts. 

It was rumored earlier this year that the Mavs offered Gafford for Mathurin and a future protected first and the Pacers considered it their fallback plan. That should be the value we're looking to extract minimum. PJ for salary and 12 is light given my own restrictions, but OKC wants to move up, not out.