Trade & Free Agency 2026/2027

[KillerLeft]

Saw a report on Heavy.com that names DAL as a "leading" candidate to trade for Embiid, without providing any details. Apparently, the whole Philly brain trust has turned over since they were swept by the NYKs. So speculation is there may be other house cleaning to clear the way to build around Maxey and other youngsters. Plus, this is the first offseason Embiid hasn't been repairing or recovering from an injury. He's under contract for the next 3 seasons, with the 3rd being a PO and averaging ~62.5M/yr.

I know it's BS, speculative writing but DAL bringing in Embiid would feel like the second coming of AD. Also, PHI is currently at ~$180M with only 10 Slots filled (including the TOs), so I'm sure trading injury-prone Joel for Kyrie and a couple of prospects looks inviting to their fans after getting ousted in the playoffs the last few years.

Embiid started this season believing his career might be over. I don't know the exact details, but he has reached the point where he's had so many surgeries that they've removed almost all of his knee cartilage. It's the age old "bone on bone" situation, like so many others before him. He literally did an interview earlier this year in which he admitted that he, himself, was surprised he was able to play as much and as effectively as he did this season and isn't sure he can expect it to continue much longer. 

I wouldn't want him if they were giving him away for free, and I wouldn't want him on 3 more years of of guaranteed money, even at the MLE. Not in 100 years would I trade for Embiid. I'd sooner trade Kyrie for Scott4theMavs and ask HIM to be the Mavs' starting center.

[DanSchwartzgan]

My timeline is flooded with Kyrie and Minnesota T-Wolves rumors. None of it credible of course... but because it's a slow news day, I went through what a trade would look like without the obvious (Julius Randle) outgoing. More or less what I would find acceptable while also being somewhat realistic.

MIN: Kyrie Irving, AJ Johnson
DAL: Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo, Ayo Dosunmu (SnT), 2033 FRP

First, Ayo is an unrestricted free agent. Free to sign with any team he wants. The assumption here is that he would love to play with Flagg. With Kyrie in the outgoing, he would get a starting spot and hopefully take a massive leap. For this trade scenario, I have him slotted at $18M/yr., which is higher than the MLE most teams can offer.

Second, Donte will be out for the season due to a torn Achilles suffered in the first round. His expiring contract is taken on by Dallas to help Minny with their financial situation so that they can replace that slot with a player that will help them "win now".

Third, Naz Reid is the 'prize' here and probably the least likely inclusion in this hypothetical. There is some thought to his upside being capped there with Randle, McDaniels, and Gobert getting a ton of the frontcourt minutes and I'm doing a non-Randle Minny trade for Kyrie after all. Still, just 26 years old and an excellent stretch Big that plays both ways. I think there's still more to his game that can get unlocked playing alongside Flagg.

Lastly, the 2033 FRP is the only tradable first the T-Wolves have this summer. I can't trade Kyrie unless it's included. Not that I care about a pick 7 years from now, but with the lottery changes and Kyrie no longer playing by then, it has a lot of perceived value.


As a huge Kyrie fan, one that thinks having him here next season would be huge for Flagg's development, this feels like the type of deal I could say yes to. Does that make it highly unlikely? Sure. But when people talk about trading Kyrie because he's the best asset the Mavs have to trade, this is the kind of deal they should be talking about IMO.

I saw you posted something similar in the Discord this morning except it had the 26th pick in the deal.  Obviously that can't work in June with Ayo's S&T not being guaranteed to happen and not under either team's control.  

I'm not sure they would want to send out DiVincenzo as he's valuable and would likely be back in time for the playoffs.  Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have him.  It is easy enough to construct (and simplify) the deal without him.  I also think there's a better chance of getting an unprotected swap in 2030 than there is of getting an outright pick in 33.

I hear the criticism that we could just sign Ayo ourselves and therefore the deal is really just Naz and the pick.  But that isn't accurate unless Ayo is willing to sign for the MLE.  I think it will cost more than that and if it does, Minnesota has to cooperate.  He has a good role there and if the money is better than the MLE, there is no reason to believe he'd force his way to Dallas.  I think we disussed something similar last week...probably with DiVincenzo as I like him.  I'm with you...no Randal please.

[Smitty]

I saw you posted something similar in the Discord this morning except it had the 26th pick in the deal.  Obviously that can't work in June with Ayo's S&T not being guaranteed to happen and not under either team's control.  

I'm not sure they would want to send out DiVincenzo as he's valuable and would likely be back in time for the playoffs.  Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have him.  It is easy enough to construct (and simplify) the deal without him.  I also think there's a better chance of getting an unprotected swap in 2030 than there is of getting an outright pick in 33.

I hear the criticism that we could just sign Ayo ourselves and therefore the deal is really just Naz and the pick.  But that isn't accurate unless Ayo is willing to sign for the MLE.  I think it will cost more than that and if it does, Minnesota has to cooperate.  He has a good role there and if the money is better than the MLE, there is no reason to believe he'd force his way to Dallas.  I think we disussed something similar last week...probably with DiVincenzo as I like him.  I'm with you...no Randal please.

Everything you said is perfectly reasonable. I agree with all of it. BUT I don’t care if Minny doesn’t want to send out Naz or prefers a swap instead of the ‘33 pick. This is what a Kyrie trade should look like IMO. Not exactly, of course… But it can’t be something like Randle and a swap or two. The other team is trading for Kyrie Irving. I have what they want. 

At least thats how I will continue to view the Kyrie situation.

[DanSchwartzgan]

BUT I don’t care if Minny doesn’t want to send out Naz or prefers a swap instead of the ‘33 pick. This is what a Kyrie trade should look like IMO.  

Just to be clear, I didn't suggest they would want to take Naz out of the deal.

[Scott41theMavs]

My issues with trading Kyrie are 1) he brings a lot of value to the court for the Mavs for the coming year for Masai's "We're winning in Dallas" agenda, and 2) his value is distressed until teams see how he plays. Some have talked of the risk of his value going down even further if he looks like crap. He won't look like crap. So the solitary reason to trade Kyrie now is if a first rounder in this year's draft is included. The package would have to be:
1) A pick in the 1-8 range;
2) A pick in the 10-18 range along with a 27-or-younger contention-level rotation player (plus expirings);
3) A pick in the 18-29 range along with 2 27-or-younger contention rotation players, with one of them being a contention-level starter.
If one of teams linked to Kyrie can pony that up, sure, do a deal. Otherwise, wait and see what is offered at the deadline.

[Scott41theMavs]

Double post.

[Smitty]

Just to be clear, I didn't suggest they would want to take Naz out of the deal.

I know. Didn’t mean to imply that you did. I was just speaking in general terms about not caring what they prefer. Of course we know they want to trade Randle. It’s easy to see that’s an obvious trade match and why the T-Wolves would want to do so for a player like Kyrie. But not even the one tradable FRP they have in 2033 would make me do that deal. So, when I went through other things the Wolves *could* offer, Naz was the player I’d want next to Coop. Him or McDaniels.

Kyrie is still better than both, and the Wolves are the ones that want Kyrie, so one of them is in the deal and your lone FRP to trade is part of it... Or no deal... I keep Kyrie.

[FireNicoHarrison]

Why are people so high on Naz?

He is mediocre rebounder and a bad defender, those are the worst skills for a big man in my opinion.

Good from the bench. Nothing else.

[cow]

Since the TWolves don't have a lot of future firsts, if they want Kryie, they can give up McDaniels. Otherwise, no.

My issues with trading Kyrie are 1) he brings a lot of value to the court for the Mavs for the coming year for Masai's "We're winning in Dallas" agenda, and 2) his value is distressed until teams see how he plays. Some have talked of the risk of his value going down even further if he looks like crap. He won't look like crap. So the solitary reason to trade Kyrie now is if a first rounder in this year's draft is included. The package would have to be:
1) A pick in the 1-8 range;
2) A pick in the 10-18 range along with a 27-or-younger contention-level rotation player (plus expirings);
3) A pick in the 18-29 range along with 2 27-or-younger contention rotation players, with one of them being a contention-level starter.
If one of teams linked to Kyrie can pony that up, sure, do a deal. Otherwise, wait and see what is offered at the deadline.

Agree with the sentiment, but I'd be more greedy than that.  Like:

1.)  A pick in the 1-4 range (not at all likely to happen)
2.)  A young player with upside a la SGA for PG13 (I'm not expecting that player to turn into what SGA is now, but he was a very promising prospect when that trade happened)
3.)  Multiple future FRPs with a young starter/rotation level player

We have no reason to be bad moving forward so Kyrie is valuable to us and he seemingly wants to be here.  Until those factors change, I'm in no rush to trade him.  He's also our last piece that can significantly restock our barren future asset cupboard.  Further, if you are hoping to turn the likes of Gafford or PJ into a future asset, their stock will go up if they get some court time with Kyrie, otherwise you'd sell them as depressed assets.  And I acknowledge the risk in keeping Kyrie as he might not look the same, but I'm not overly concerned with that and it's a gamble I'm fine with.  Once Kyrie is gone, this is a bad team again, but probably not bad or lucky enough to preserve that '27 pick.

[FireNicoHarrison]

Agree... McDaniels is the starting point.

I don't see why we have to gift Irving to them.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Agree... McDaniels is the starting point.

I don't see why we have to gift Irving to them.

 
McDaniels won't be in the deal. You can forget that. And other teams aren't looking at Kyrie the same as you do. Especially now after a serious knee injury, not playing in over a year, and being on the wrong side of 30.

[DanSchwartzgan]

 
McDaniels won't be in the deal. You can forget that. And other teams aren't looking at Kyrie the same as you do. Especially now after a serious knee injury, not playing in over a year, and being on the wrong side of 30.

This would be my dream asset in any deal with Minnesota, but I agree it isn't happening.  I've long thought any trade would happen at the TDL.  

I do agree with Masia's strategy (if that is indeed what he is doing) that the best alternative path to waiting until the TDL is to try to drum up competing bidders.  There is a reason Detroit, Houston and Minnesota are mentioned.  There may be others.  It is much easier to structure deals in June/July than it is in Jan/Feb.  If it doesn't materialize, there isn't a gun to our head.  But, efforts to create value seem smart to me.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Charlotte is expected to make Miles Bridges available in trade talks in conjunction with the upcoming draft, league sources say, after essentially doing so at the February trade deadline.

marcstein.substack.com

[Smitty]

I don't want to spend days talking about Minnesota and their desire for Kyrie, but anyone that's looked at their roster/financial situation would know that they're likely to be a bit desperate this summer. They have 9 players under contract next season @ $190M. Their depth chart is:

PG:
SG: ANT
SF: McDaniels | Shannon Jr. | Phillips
PF: Randle
C: Gobert | Reid | Beringer

DiVincenzo - Out for Season

Notable Free Agents:
Ayo Dosunmu
Mike Conley
Bones Hyland


They have Pick #28 which will take them to 10 spots and eat of $3M of cap. Meaning they have 4 spots they must fill and are ~$7M below the Tax Line, ~$13M below A1, ~$26M below A2. Of course, we know they want to bring back Ayo, which would take them past A1 and get them close to Apron 2, with at least 3 more spots to fill.

This is why we hear so much about them looking to trade Randle ($33M) and Gobert ($36.5M) this summer. If I were a Minny fan, I'd be working up a trade to post on the forums like Randle+Reid+Divincenzo+FRP for Kyrie+PJW. Pointing out how it saves ~$10M and gives MIN 2 starters that fit like a glove. BUT I'm not a Minny fan...

[FireNicoHarrison]

 
McDaniels won't be in the deal. You can forget that. And other teams aren't looking at Kyrie the same as you do. Especially now after a serious knee injury, not playing in over a year, and being on the wrong side of 30.

So Minny can kicks rocks.

We can wait the TDL. No problem.

[FireNicoHarrison]

I don't think Ant is happy to play in a no where team without stars... McDaniels is elite 3&D guy but not a Robin and Minny has a lot of holes in their roster.

[Mavs2021]

I´d say Randle/Beringer/28th pick for Irving would have to be the core pieces that start the conversation. Might talk about 2033 or Martin/DiVincenzo  sprinkled on top.

Minnesota won´t give up McDaniels. Reid is a worse player than Randle with a worse contract, but Randle has little value to the Mavs re-building cause. 

So the question is how highly do you rate Beringer and that 28th pick? Are their deals out there, where you get the same or better draft capital, and with a younger player with upside that suits the Flagg timeline better than Randle. The answer is probably yes.

[mvossman]

I don't want to spend days talking about Minnesota and their desire for Kyrie, but anyone that's looked at their roster/financial situation would know that they're likely to be a bit desperate this summer. They have 9 players under contract next season @ $190M. Their depth chart is:

PG:
SG: ANT
SF: McDaniels | Shannon Jr. | Phillips
PF: Randle
C: Gobert | Reid | Beringer

DiVincenzo - Out for Season

Notable Free Agents:
Ayo Dosunmu
Mike Conley
Bones Hyland


They have Pick #28 which will take them to 10 spots and eat of $3M of cap. Meaning they have 4 spots they must fill and are ~$7M below the Tax Line, ~$13M below A1, ~$26M below A2. Of course, we know they want to bring back Ayo, which would take them past A1 and get them close to Apron 2, with at least 3 more spots to fill.

This is why we hear so much about them looking to trade Randle ($33M) and Gobert ($36.5M) this summer. If I were a Minny fan, I'd be working up a trade to post on the forums like Randle+Reid+Divincenzo+FRP for Kyrie+PJW. Pointing out how it saves ~$10M and gives MIN 2 starters that fit like a glove. BUT I'm not a Minny fan...

As somebody who has been ok with trading Kyire if the return is reasonable, that trade does not interest me at all.  No interest in Randle and limited interest in Reid.  McDaniels is not going to be on the table, and they don't really want to trade Reid.  The only trade idea with Minny that makes sense to me is Kyrie for Gobert, and that is assuming a third team is willing to pay significant assets for Gobert.

[Scott41theMavs]

As somebody who has been ok with trading Kyire if the return is reasonable, that trade does not interest me at all.  No interest in Randle and limited interest in Reid.  McDaniels is not going to be on the table, and they don't really want to trade Reid.  The only trade idea with Minny that makes sense to me is Kyrie for Gobert, and that is assuming a third team is willing to pay significant assets for Gobert.

For a second, KL's cardiac health flashed before my eyes, and then I read the bolded. Whew!

If a team that doesn't have a top 18 pick in this draft wants Kyrie, my response is, "Then find a third team you can give juicy assets to who will then route that pick to us, and then we'll consider a trade."

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

The Mavs, Wolves and Hornets 3-way just fits so well.

Wolves get Kyrie
Hornets get Gobert, #28 and #30
Mavs get Beringer, Green, Williams, Mann, #14 and #18

Or expand it to where the Wolves also receive Gafford and Naji. The Mavs would get Randle and their 2027 1st back. The Hornets would get the Wolves' 2033 unprotected 1st.

Yes, at face value, we don't want Randle. But getting back a 1st would be good. Plus, I think the team should position itself to be players in FA in 2028 when Luka is free (Randle has two years left).