Trade& Free Agency 2026/2027

[Smitty]

@JakeLFischer
I’m going to keep asking NBA personnel in Chicago today about one key side effect to the league’s impending lottery reform…

Right now, front office executives are preparing for less future draft picks to be traded for star players under the proposed “3, 2, 1” system.

The NBA’s new lottery reform is reportedly “terrifying” front offices, leading teams to treat future assets with "greater care" and rethink major trades for stars like Giannis Antetokounmpo.

More here: http://tinyurl.com/2dr69dat

[mvossman]

So…

Which team is better?

Mavericks before the Luka trade? Or Lakers now?

I’d say Mavs before Luka trade.

So Nico did a better job assembling a supporting cast around him than Pelinka has.

To be fair, Pelinka was saddled with LeBron, which seriously limited his flexibility. A truer picture will emerge with his dollars off their books.

I’d also argue that it’s really difficult to assemble a championship team with Luka.

Nico did not build around Luka, Cuban did.  I would argue Linsdey had more influence on getting the right pieces around Luka than Nico did.

Its not that hard to build around Luka.  The formula is simple.  Get him a Robin, a P&R rim protecting center (and ideally a stretch 5 as well) and 3&D wings.  Its not really that different a formula for what we need around Flagg.  Cuban took several years to get this right, trading away all of his assets for a failed Robin attempt (KP), and then letting the actual Robin walk for nothing (Brunson).  When he finally got the formula right they went to the finals (and lost to a much more talented team).

Pelinka started with a team that did not fit Luka and he has not done much to change that.  Ayton is a terrible fit.  He let the one actual 3&D player walk (although DFS might be cooked).  The only good roster decision so far has been Smart.

I don't expect Luka to come back here for many reasons.  If Cuban were back in power I could see a legit push for it, but I don't see that as a direction Masai is likely to take (free agency is dead).

[Smitty]

Giannis Antetokounmpo trade breakdown, per @SIChrisMannix

- Expects the Miami Heat to be “first in line” when it comes to Giannis

- Giannis will have a big voice in this

- Probably a deal done by the draft

- Doesn’t have the Celtics in the ‘front runner’ tier

- Warriors and Timberwolves also in the mix

(H/t @NBAonNBC)

[cow]

Giannis Antetokounmpo trade breakdown, per @SIChrisMannix

- Expects the Miami Heat to be “first in line” when it comes to Giannis

- Giannis will have a big voice in this

- Probably a deal done by the draft

- Doesn’t have the Celtics in the ‘front runner’ tier

- Warriors and Timberwolves also in the mix

(H/t @NBAonNBC)

Really curious what the structure of the Warriors package would be.

I guess they could do Butler and up to 4x draft picks. Not exactly sure on the 2030 pick since it's owed to us if it falls between 20-30. I'm assuming they could offer it as 1-19 or convey to a second but Gump or Dan can probably correct me.

[loki]

PJ for Grayson Allen, 27 FRP (worst of CLE, UTA, MIN), & 2 SRP

I've been trying to come up with realistic PJ trades and Phoenix seems like a great landing spot. They don't control their own picks for a while so they have nothing to do but try to win. A big, defensive-minded forward like PJ fills a major hole for them.

The pick Dallas gets isn't great and will probably land in the mid-20's, but it's still better than not having a pick that year. Allen provides some extra shooting off the bench. He's owed $18.1M and then has a player option for $19.4M, which means Dallas gets out of 2 years of PJ's deal. That allows them to clear more cap space in 28 in preparation for guys like Luka, Mitchell, Nembhard, Avdija, Ajay Mitchell, etc.

[mvossman]

PJ for Grayson Allen, 27 FRP (worst of CLE, UTA, MIN), & 2 SRP

I've been trying to come up with realistic PJ trades and Phoenix seems like a great landing spot. They don't control their own picks for a while so they have nothing to do but try to win. A big, defensive-minded forward like PJ fills a major hole for them.

The pick Dallas gets isn't great and will probably land in the mid-20's, but it's still better than not having a pick that year. Allen provides some extra shooting off the bench. He's owed $18.1M and then has a player option for $19.4M, which means Dallas gets out of 2 years of PJ's deal. That allows them to clear more cap space in 28 in preparation for guys like Luka, Mitchell, Nembhard, Avdija, Ajay Mitchell, etc.

Based on Masi's comments (free agency is kind of dead), I'm not sure Mavs are going to go down the plan powder route.  I'm also not positive there is a need to trade PJ, especially if they draft a guard at 9.  I have concerns with his fit with Flagg, but I think we need to see that on a functional roster, and I have some interest seeing him at the 5 with Flagg at the 4 for stretches.  It would also hurt to trade PJ for a total douche.

[loki]

Based on Masi's comments (free agency is kind of dead), I'm not sure Mavs are going to go down the plan powder route.  I'm also not positive there is a need to trade PJ, especially if they draft a guard at 9.  I have concerns with his fit with Flagg, but I think we need to see that on a functional roster, and I have some interest seeing him at the 5 with Flagg at the 4 for stretches.  It would also hurt to trade PJ for a total douche.

Kind of dead is kind of alive. With no good draft picks the Mavs aren't going to have many avenues to improve after this offseason. I don't think they should rule out a potential avenue just because it hasn't been used a lot recently. That could change, especially with some teams beginning to feel the impact of the luxury tax and 2nd apron. We may see some movement this offseason with RFA's like Watson and Eason. Those could end up being SnT's, but that would be made possible by cap space. 

The potential downside of the wait and see approach with PJ is that there's no guarantee he plays significantly better. He'll be in his 30's by the time this team is ready to contend. If he has a poor year again the Mavs will be stuck with a boat anchor contract. If he has a good year they're still not getting anything near a lottery pick in return.

[mvossman]

Kind of dead is kind of alive. With no good draft picks the Mavs aren't going to have many avenues to improve after this offseason. I don't think they should rule out a potential avenue just because it hasn't been used a lot recently. That could change, especially with some teams beginning to feel the impact of the luxury tax and 2nd apron. We may see some movement this offseason with RFA's like Watson and Eason. Those could end up being SnT's, but that would be made possible by cap space. 

The potential downside of the wait and see approach with PJ is that there's no guarantee he plays significantly better. He'll be in his 30's by the time this team is ready to contend. If he has a poor year again the Mavs will be stuck with a boat anchor contract. If he has a good year they're still not getting anything near a lottery pick in return.

I mean the reason free agency has not been used recently is because teams are not letting guys hit it very often.  There is rarely much there to choose from, and you never know who will be there until very late in the game.  I mean flexibility is always good, but it would require a lot of uncertainty to generate enough cap space to sign a massive contract like Luka.

I'm not against trading PJ in general, but I don't think I would do it for an older player that I hate with two years left on his contract and a crappy first round pick.

[loki]

I mean the reason free agency has not been used recently is because teams are not letting guys hit it very often.  There is rarely much there to choose from, and you never know who will be there until very late in the game.  I mean flexibility is always good, but it would require a lot of uncertainty to generate enough cap space to sign a massive contract like Luka.

I'm not against trading PJ in general, but I don't think I would do it for an older player that I hate with two years left on his contract and a crappy first round pick.

Right now they only have Flagg, PJ, and Gafford on the books. Whoever they draft this year will have a team option in 28. The other question marks are Kyrie, Lively, Christie, and Marshall. I don't think it's that difficult to preserve cap space with some combination of those players, but not if you keep all of them. My priorities would be Lively, Christie, and the draft picks. 

Even if you don't ultimately sign someone with the cap space, you could use it to take on bad contracts for picks in years where you have none.

[mvossman]

Right now they only have Flagg, PJ, and Gafford on the books. Whoever they draft this year will have a team option in 28. The other question marks are Kyrie, Lively, Christie, and Marshall. I don't think it's that difficult to preserve cap space with some combination of those players, but not if you keep all of them. My priorities would be Lively, Christie, and the draft picks. 

Even if you don't ultimately sign someone with the cap space, you could use it to take on bad contracts for picks in years where you have none.

I mean we have high level FO now.  They could turn several of the current players into younger longer term contracts.  I think there will be a ton of changes to this roster between now and 28 and they may not want to handcuff themselves trying to keep huge cap space available.

[loki]

I mean we have high level FO now.  They could turn several of the current players into younger longer term contracts.  I think there will be a ton of changes to this roster between now and 28 and they may not want to handcuff themselves trying to keep huge cap space available.

Sure, if they can pull that off. I suspect they'll have to buy low on someone who isn't performing right now. Otherwise there's no reason to donate a young building block to the Mavs for a player like PJ. 

Masai's MO has been to give everyone the bag and not trade them until it's too late. He arguably made bad or late decisions when handling Lowry, Anunoby, Siakam, Poeltl, Ingram, Powell, and Van Vleet. I haven't seen any indication that he knows how to successfully operate in the current CBA. I can give him a pass for free agency failures, but that won't be an excuse now that he's out of Canada.

The path to max cap space is probably something like: Flagg, #9, #30, and pick 3 of (Christie, Lively, PJ, Gafford, Marshall). Lots of variables at play, but I don't see keeping this in mind as a major hindrance. Of course if you can add a major piece that commits long term money you just do it and be happy.

[mvossman]

Masai's MO has been to give everyone the bag and not trade them until it's too late. He arguably made bad or late decisions when handling Lowry, Anunoby, Siakam, Poeltl, Ingram, Powell, and Van Vleet. I haven't seen any indication that he knows how to successfully operate in the current CBA. I can give him a pass for free agency failures, but that won't be an excuse now that he's out of Canada.

You are referring to Masai's MO post winning a championship with a team that he built.  His MO when taking over a team and trying to build a championship is very different.  He traded away a big name player early, make great draft picks (many times in late first) made several small trades to improve the roster, and when he was ready made the big trade to get the chip.

If he follows that same path with the Mavs, he will kill this draft, trade Kyrie at the TDL for assets, make quality picks in late first round for the next several years, and make smaller trades (guys like Gafford, PJ and Naji) to slowly improve the roster.  He won't have to make a Kawhi like trade because he already has the superstar alpha on the team, but he may decide in a few years that he needs to make a big trade for a Robin to get over the hump.  Maybe he decides to go plan powder this time, but there is nothing in his history (or his words) to suggest he will go that route.

[DanSchwartzgan]

You are referring to Masai's MO post winning a championship with a team that he built.  His MO when taking over a team and trying to build a championship is very different.  He traded away a big name player early, make great draft picks (many times in late first) made several small trades to improve the roster, and when he was ready made the big trade to get the chip.

If he follows that same path with the Mavs, he will kill this draft, trade Kyrie at the TDL for assets, make quality picks in late first round for the next several years, and make smaller trades (guys like Gafford, PJ and Naji) to slowly improve the roster.  He won't have to make a Kawhi like trade because he already has the superstar alpha on the team, but he may decide in a few years that he needs to make a big trade for a Robin to get over the hump.  Maybe he decides to go plan powder this time, but there is nothing in his history (or his words) to suggest he will go that route.

Can the Mods add a button where we can give 10 likes instead of just one.  Yes to every bit of this.  

I hate the simplistic narrative of recent year overpays without taking into account 1. the broader narrative in both Toronto and Denver and 2. this is the freaking North Pole.  Nobody wants to play there or stay there.  The challenges of retaining a succussful roster are just different.

[aguiar95]

Who is the better player ? PJ Washington, Tari Eason, Peyton Wattson. PJ IMO already has peaked, giving one of those two starter minutes could blossom them.

If we trade PJ for pick or something, we could sign one of those for the same salary (20M AAV) via S&T correct, they would play as starter here.

[loki]

You are referring to Masai's MO post winning a championship with a team that he built.  His MO when taking over a team and trying to build a championship is very different.  He traded away a big name player early, make great draft picks (many times in late first) made several small trades to improve the roster, and when he was ready made the big trade to get the chip.

If he follows that same path with the Mavs, he will kill this draft, trade Kyrie at the TDL for assets, make quality picks in late first round for the next several years, and make smaller trades (guys like Gafford, PJ and Naji) to slowly improve the roster.  He won't have to make a Kawhi like trade because he already has the superstar alpha on the team, but he may decide in a few years that he needs to make a big trade for a Robin to get over the hump.  Maybe he decides to go plan powder this time, but there is nothing in his history (or his words) to suggest he will go that route.

I'm not advocating "plan powder". They don't have to completely clear the deck or turn down options to improve the team if they exist. They just have to avoid the exact mistakes that Masai has been making for years like overpaying replaceable role players. I hope he does almost all of what you're suggesting. Right now we're in the honeymoon phase where Masai can do no wrong and all his bad decisions can be explained away. We'll see how long it lasts.

[loki]

Can the Mods add a button where we can give 10 likes instead of just one.  Yes to every bit of this.  

I hate the simplistic narrative of recent year overpays without taking into account 1. the broader narrative in both Toronto and Denver and 2. this is the freaking North Pole.  Nobody wants to play there or stay there.  The challenges of retaining a succussful roster are just different.

Good asset management is even more important if no one wants to stay. It would have been helpful for example if he turned Pascal Siakam into someone better than Brandon Ingram, but that's all he has to show for the deal.

[loki]

Who is the better player ? PJ Washington, Tari Eason, Peyton Wattson. PJ IMO already has peaked, giving one of those two starter minutes could blossom them.

If we trade PJ for pick or something, we could sign one of those for the same salary (20M AAV) via S&T correct, they would play as starter here.

I'd say Eason is the worst of the three. PJ vs Watson is debatable, but Watson is 5 years younger and still improving. 

The Mavs could use the $20.8M trade exception from the AD deal to offer up to $22.4M AAV over 4 years. I don't think Eason is worth that. Watson will likely gets offers in that range from teams with cap space, but Denver may try to keep him if they can find a way to dump Cam Johnson/Zeke Nnaji and waive Valanciunas. That might allow them to sneak under the 2nd apron. Could still be worth exploring though.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

https://hoopsmatic.com/roster/dallas


Here is a roster manager tool where you can play GM of any team in the NBA.

[Chicagojk]

I'd say Eason is the worst of the three. PJ vs Watson is debatable, but Watson is 5 years younger and still improving. 

The Mavs could use the $20.8M trade exception from the AD deal to offer up to $22.4M AAV over 4 years. I don't think Eason is worth that. Watson will likely gets offers in that range from teams with cap space, but Denver may try to keep him if they can find a way to dump Cam Johnson/Zeke Nnaji and waive Valanciunas. That might allow them to sneak under the 2nd apron. Could still be worth exploring though.

There was a Mavs video I saw of PJ's top ten plays this year.  They looked great.    

PJ had a poor season.   I don't think his defense was anywhere close to where it needed it to be.  Injuries also played a factor as is playing in a lost season.  I really hope they can rebound his value this year.   Either for the Mavs or as an asset.

Looking back, he was probably hurt the most from the blunder of the roster.  It was doomed from the start (Man, how could i have been so wrong?).    Throwing him out there with no point guard, an 19 year old Coop handling the ball, limited shooting, and terrible spacing just put him in a terrible spot.   I think both him and Gafford are best when the floor is spread and you have guys who can put pressure on defenses.    Then they can do what they do best.   

He needs to be better on defense though if he wants to be a solid fit with Coop.  I don't think anyone is going to fear his three point shot, but if he shots 37-38% he at least becomes not a weakness there...even if teams don't worry about him shooting it.

[Smitty]

Should we view Ayo Dosunmu as high on Masai's wish list this summer? The Timberwolves could technically offer him and extension through June 30th -- 3yr/$52M (~$17M AAV).

I've forgotten some of the Sign and Trade rules, but I think the Wolves could do so with the Mavs and the TPE (~$21M), if they don't agree on an extension beforehand.

If the Mavs don't draft a Guard with their top pick, I could see Dosunmu thinking this is an attractive destination as a UFA. Is the full MLE enough to land him, with only a few teams having actual cap space to offer more?

Not that it's important, but I think there's a possible cultural connection there with the Nigeria background also. Dosunmu's father emigrated from there.