2026 NBA draft thread

[mvossman]

Ok, I'll put my hat back in the ring, but without any sense of "knowing" which guy(s) Masai and Schmitz ought to take. Just my sense from what I've been hearing and reading.

1) Dybantsa
2) Boozer (has moved up for me, but lol not a Mavs concern)
3) Peterson
4) Wilson (has moved down for me)
5) Flemings
6) Acuff
7) Brown (has moved way up for me, presuming health)
8) Wagler
9) Burries (You absolutely do not pick this guy if any of the 8 above are still on the board - I have him above the next three with the positional supposition that he can create his own shot better than any of them. If that's wrong, then the player who makes it wrong moves up)
10) Mara
11) Morez Johnson
12) Steinbach
13) Philon (would never leave any of the above 12 players on the board to grab him out of some positional need. You want him, you trade down for more assets, period)
14) Ament (I don't like him, but if Masai/Schmitz pick him, I 100% trust their judgment)
15) Lendeborg (too old, but around this pick range, fine)
16) Evans
17) Graves
18) Carr
19) Okorie
20) Swain
21) Quintance
22) Lopez
23) Cenac 
24) Yessoufou

I have guys in different places, but the tiers are the same.  Tier 1 is 1-4, tier 2 is 5-9, tier 3 is 10-15, tier 4 is 16-24.  Mavs will get a guy in tier 2.  The real question is if one of these tier 4 guys will fall to 30, or do the Mavs need to try and move.  Given the depth of this draft, the Mavs second first round pick has legit potential.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Nate ament report.  He also has some good ones of the guards


https://youtu.be/c1a-T3jLhUQ?si=e1sF6CEK5_CeF35h

BE PREPARED

(although all the confirmed meetings so far do seem to lean guard instead of the typical Masai pick of just searching for the freakiest wing in the draft)

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

I wonder how much GMs feel pressure based on hype.

Case in point: Wilson, Caleb

For the better part of 4 months Wilson has been hyped to be, at the very least, a top 4 pick.  Now let's say we all "Men In Black" flashy thinged, wiping out a year's worth of Tankathon mocks and viewed each player at face value. Is Caleb Wilson THAT MUCH BETTER than Morez Johnson?

I mean, at the combine, Wilson appeared to have little shot or offensive game. Meanwhile, Johnson shooting stood out.

[Winter]

I wonder how much GMs feel pressure based on hype.

Case in point: Wilson, Caleb

For the better part of 4 months Wilson has been hyped to be, at the very least, a top 4 pick.  Now let's say we all "Men In Black" flashy thinged, wiping out a year's worth of Tankathon mocks and viewed each player at face value. Is Caleb Wilson THAT MUCH BETTER than Morez Johnson?

I mean, at the combine, Wilson appeared to have little shot or offensive game. Meanwhile, Johnson shooting stood out.

I think there's enough data (from what I read) that Wilson's impact on his team - both offense and defense - really stood out. Wilson is both the offensive connector and defensive presence (rebounder, rim protector) on that NC team, while Morez Johnson doesn't really play that offensive role for Michigan - that's probably Yaxel.

So my guess is that it may be closer to what is generally put together in the mock draft, but I believe it's more of Johnson going up than Wilson going down.

[mvossman]

I wonder how much GMs feel pressure based on hype.

Case in point: Wilson, Caleb

For the better part of 4 months Wilson has been hyped to be, at the very least, a top 4 pick.  Now let's say we all "Men In Black" flashy thinged, wiping out a year's worth of Tankathon mocks and viewed each player at face value. Is Caleb Wilson THAT MUCH BETTER than Morez Johnson?

I mean, at the combine, Wilson appeared to have little shot or offensive game. Meanwhile, Johnson shooting stood out.

I think on the court performance is a much bigger impact to player evaluation than combine.  The combine can nudge guys up or down some, but the baseline is taken from how they play in college.  Caleb Wilson was the primary offensive option scoring 20 points a game efficiently.  His offensive game is way more advanced than Morez outside of three point shooting (and I don't see that becoming a big part of his game anytime soon).  Morez would be a project, but Caleb Wilson is an NBA ready player right now.

[Smitty]

I wonder how much GMs feel pressure based on hype.

Case in point: Wilson, Caleb

@IsaacLHarris
this is obvious, but coming out of combine chatter, wilson has a lot of fans in front offices

[dirkfansince1998]

https://x.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/2054928056100306975

https://x.com/Fullcourtpass/status/2054640132611838368

Top four dynamics will be interesting to watch. Right now it is all about agents/front offices using the media to push narratives. Dybantsa wants to stay in Utah. Peterson could be the first pick. Utah has the Boozer connection. Wizards supposingly considering trade down scenarios.

[Smitty]

Do we have to talk about Carr at 9 now?!





@DBCJason
Shooting Score: a simple metric with only 3 inputs (3P%, FT%, 3Pr), weighted by how correlated each are to NBA 3P%

Here are the best shooters in the 2026 NBA Draft and a graph plotting Shooting Score against self-created 3 point scoring in an attempt to capture shooting dynamism

[Winter]

I was thinking about that yesterday.

I guess Carr could be plan B if you were set on a SG and Burries got picked early. He does kind of look like a Masai type.

[loki]

What's the appeal of Burries over Carr? I don't really see it. Carr has a significant advantage in size and athleticism. He's a comparable if not better shooter, and he'd be amazing in transition with Coop. Obviously he needs to add a little strength. He could tighten up the handle too, but neither guy projects as a primary on ball creator.

Carr feels like the exact kind of guy Masai would draft, even if it's a little before where the consensus has him mocked.

[mvossman]

I was thinking about that yesterday.

I guess Carr could be plan B if you were set on a SG and Burries got picked early.  He does kind of look like a Masai type.

The thing is he is a junior who did very little his first two years in college.  I don't think he has the upside that the freshman he is competing with do.

[dirkfansince1998]

What's the appeal of Burries over Carr? I don't really see it. Carr has a significant advantage in size and athleticism. He's a comparable if not better shooter, and he'd be amazing in transition with Coop. Obviously he needs to add a little strength. He could tighten up the handle too, but neither guy projects as a primary on ball creator.

Carr feels like the exact kind of guy Masai would draft, even if it's a little before where the consensus has him mocked.

Burries has real guard skills. Way better handles. Making him even more a threat in transition than Carr and even offering some half court creation. Burries actually was a good defender in college. Carr's size and athleticism never translated to defensive impact. Struggled against smaller guards and in the pick and roll.

[loki]

The thing is he is a junior who did very little his first two years in college.  I don't think he has the upside that the freshman he is competing with do.

He's a redshirt sophmore. It looks like he was ready to contribute last year, but didn't get any playing time (and he missed signficant time due to a thumb injury).

[dirkfansince1998]

Lendeborg praising his Michigan teammates. Thinks Johnson Jr will have the best pro career.

[mvossman]

What's the appeal of Burries over Carr? I don't really see it. Carr has a significant advantage in size and athleticism. He's a comparable if not better shooter, and he'd be amazing in transition with Coop. Obviously he needs to add a little strength. He could tighten up the handle too, but neither guy projects as a primary on ball creator.

Carr feels like the exact kind of guy Masai would draft, even if it's a little before where the consensus has him mocked.

My guess is if Burries stayed in college for his junior year he would be in his second year as point guard with dominating numbers across the board and this would not be a conversation.  Burries may have lower upside than some of the other freshman guards, but I think its higher than Carr.  And for all of Carr's length and athleticism, Burries was a better defender as a freshman.

[Winter]

Carr had to play behind VJ Edgecombe last year. Kind of a tall order.

Move aside. Let's let our fine GM team handle this.

[michaeltex]

For some reason, I have a sneaky interest in Meleek Thomas. I don't mean as a lottery pick, but maybe if we end up trading with OKC for a low FRP or high SRP.

Don't ask me to explain it. Watching some of his play, he just seemed like a good running partner for Acuff last season and I was thinking he might be good to have with Coop without having to deal with another alpha dog.

[Chicagojk]

I am going to be lower on Carr than others.  I may be wrong.

His first two years he was at TN.  As a soph, he left the team in December.   That is why he only played 4 games.  I don't think TN fans think highly of him.   This year at Baylor, his first, didn't go as planned.  Baylor had a brand new team and it didn't work out despite having two potential first rounders.   My ears perk when a guy looks really good but it doesn't impact winning.  Was it his fault?  No idea, but for that I am going to have him lower in the first round (later first round).

[dirkfansince1998]

Scrimmage boxscore.

https://x.com/DraftExpress/status/2055017635155206226

Basically just guys looking for their own. Guards chucking away from three. Bigs rebounding. Not even thinking about a kick out pass if the ball ends up in their hands. Only one that looked like he was playing 5v5 basketball was Mitchell.

[Winter]

For some reason, I have a sneaky interest in Meleek Thomas. I don't mean as a lottery pick, but maybe if we end up trading with OKC for a low FRP or high SRP.

Don't ask me to explain it. Watching some of his play, he just seemed like a good running partner for Acuff last season and I was thinking he might be good to have with Coop without having to deal with another alpha dog.

Thomas will not participate in the scrimmages... which generally means he intends to stay in the draft and has a first-round expectation. He has until May 27 to decide.

His combine measurement numbers aren't that impressive, so I'm a little unsure how this plays out for him. The same goes for Billy Richmond, but his stock is rising for a lot of different reasons. Both got to play with Darius Acuff and benefitted from it. Some analysts now think Richmond might be a first-round pick as well (and projected to be more of a two-way threat than Thomas).