2026 NBA draft thread

[dirkfansince1998]

https://100guaranteed.substack.com/p/a-q...ingularity

Pretty good read. Philosophy of scouting/drafting. How to identify specific skills/statistical outliers/singularities that translate to the NBA.

[dirkfansince1998]

Since Flemmings has dropped into othe Mavs selection area, I'm posting one of the better scouting reports I've seen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfKlBLjgOug

https://x.com/bjpf_/status/2043766920307228914

He is the drive and kick option among lottery guards in this class. Easy to imagine how this would look in the NBA because it's by far the most common archetype these days.

[F Gump]

Recent rumor - NO is looking to trade for a FRP.

Presumably they will be looking at teams with multiple picks who might let go of 1. Such as OKC, who also needs to move some payroll.

Q: If teams with earlier picks dont cooperate, what would you think of Mavs selling pick 30?

In general, I'm not expecting much value if they use the pick, so would be very open to hear an offer.

[Winter]

Summed up: Flemmings is good at a lot of things, but not elite at anything.

He needs to beef up, but he's quick and should be marginally better on defense than some other PGs in the first round - which isn't saying much. His volume of 3-pt shots is low even if the percentage is good. He has a good mid-range and is quick to the basket even though his finishing could use some improvement. He had a great first half of the season, but the second half was not as productive.

To me, he looks like a PG that can play immediately without hurting you, but he also looks like a player who will need a year or two to be special.

[dirkfansince1998]

Recent rumor - NO is looking to trade for a FRP.

Presumably they will be looking at teams with multiple picks who might let go of 1. Such as OKC, who also needs to move some payroll.

Q: If teams with earlier picks dont cooperate, what would you think of Mavs selling pick 30?

In general, I'm not expecting much value if they use the pick, so would be very open to hear an offer.

In general I think the Mavs should try to add picks. Not sell them. But in the right circumstances it can obviously be an option. Note exactly sure what the Pelicans have to offer unless the Mavs think they need to make a win now move. For a win now team the obvious targets are Jones, Murphy, Zion and Murray. Don't think 30 is enough for any of them.
Other semi realistic option would be something like Bey for Martin. But even Bey is already 27. Not exactly on the same timeline as Flagg.

[SweetFidelia]

Kyrie 39,
Klay 17,
Gafford 17,
PJ 19,
Cooper 14,
Caleb 10,
Naji 9,
Max 8,
Lively 7,
AJ 3
Ryan 2,
Two Ways: John and Tyler already on contracts under a million

Free Agents: Middleton, Powell, Bagley, B Will, Cisse

If we are able to trade off Gafford and PJ that leaves us with 9 contracted players on the roster and certainly that kind of trade would bring back contracted players so when we add on the contracts of 3 rookies and we resign a few veterans like say we sign Bagley and Cisse, now there is 16 contracts would a guy like AJ or Martin be tradeable. Maybe we trade PJ and Gafford to one team who sends us back one player but that sounds unlikely. I assume the mavericks are also considering that keeping PJ and Gafford is an option but if we did look to trade them who has shown any interest?

I think in team building having very useful starting caliber players in the $15-$20m range is critical. PJ is the starter with Flagg at the forward spots in my mind. IF they somehow move up with lottery luck and get Dybantsa, Boozer, or Wilson, that’s the only thing that changes my mind on starter. Having him as the #1 back up forward plus his small ball 5 ability make him still incredibly valuable. He’s only 27, so he’s got plenty of good bball left and with cost certainty moving forward. Fearless, tough, he’s a keeper.  I can’t see a trade where you get back matching production or value. I do like Bagley as a stretch big off the bench.  I’m not paying him a lot of money to stay, though. BWill is not a keeper. With Nembhard here, it’s time to move on. C is a big question. I’d hope Lively gets fixed. If not, what a waste of a draft pick that was. To me, Gafford is not nearly the value PJ is, so a C upgrade isn’t a bad idea unless Lively is 100% and giving me 65+ games. In that event, if you can keep Cisse and Bagley at 1/2 the cost of Gaff (or even less) and draft a big, I’d trade Gafford for a pick for sure if the opportunity arose.

[Mavs2021]

Small ball PJ Washington at the five is an easy solution to gap Lively´s recovery. This team should run. Therefore I´d do nothing.

In reality Lively is just wearing a walking boot to not upset the lottery kharma. Once we win the lottery again, I expect him to take the boot off, hit Danny Ainge over the head with it and yell AJ in classic WWE style.

[windjc]

  Trade Caruso + #17 into air, waive Williams, pick up the options of Hartenstein and Dort.

Williams 41.2
Chet 41.2
SGA 40.8
Hartenstein 28.5
Dort 18.2
Joe 11.3
Wiggins 9.2
Williams 7.7
Wallace 7.4
Topic 5.4
Sorber 4.8
McCain 4.4
Mitchell 2.8
___________
222.9
1st round pick (12th)
2nd round pick (37th)

2nd apron 222.0

Imho there is no way that Hartenstein will get anywhere above 20M going forward, so the Thunder can re-negotiate his contract in way that they land exactly under the 2nd apron. 

Obviously there is the option that they just let Hartenstein go instead of Caruso, keep both picks and basically land more or less at the 2nd apron.

So you don’t think the are going to do anything to get out ahead of the 65M+ they will owe SGA after that each of the following 3 years? 

And what about extensions for anyone else? They are just going to trim a little tiny fat now and call it a day?


If that roster was Mavs this board would be covered in conversations about how it was unsubstanable.

[F Gump]

So you don’t think the are going to do anything to get out ahead of the 65M+ they will owe SGA after that each of the following 3 years? 

And what about extensions for anyone else? They are just going to trim a little tiny fat now and call it a day?

If that roster was Mavs this board would be covered in conversations about how it was unsubstainable.

I don't think there's any avenue for OKC to cap-juggle their way past their salary woes. Some players can be kept, but others (who will be talented, and who they would prefer to keep) will simply have to go. There's just not enough money for everyone.

Instead imo the question will be WHICH players they will decide to shed, and how/if they will have to simply give away talent (vs if they can get something back for the players they decide to shed). In many ways, it will be a question of negotiating skill -- the whole league knows they are in a tight spot, but will they still be able to get good offers for what are their 2nd stringers? I think they will figure it out, but it will be interesting to see how they navigate it.

[myconsumerclub]

I think in team building having very useful starting caliber players in the $15-$20m range is critical. PJ is the starter with Flagg at the forward spots in my mind. IF they somehow move up with lottery luck and get Dybantsa, Boozer, or Wilson, that’s the only thing that changes my mind on starter. Having him as the #1 back up forward plus his small ball 5 ability make him still incredibly valuable. He’s only 27, so he’s got plenty of good bball left and with cost certainty moving forward. Fearless, tough, he’s a keeper.  I can’t see a trade where you get back matching production or value. I do like Bagley as a stretch big off the bench.  I’m not paying him a lot of money to stay, though. BWill is not a keeper. With Nembhard here, it’s time to move on. C is a big question. I’d hope Lively gets fixed. If not, what a waste of a draft pick that was. To me, Gafford is not nearly the value PJ is, so a C upgrade isn’t a bad idea unless Lively is 100% and giving me 65+ games. In that event, if you can keep Cisse and Bagley at 1/2 the cost of Gaff (or even less) and draft a big, I’d trade Gafford for a pick for sure if the opportunity arose.

I have to agree with you that Gafford's value has dipped a lot and PJ brings a lot more to the table but I doubt we get a top 4 pick and that is based on past results. If we get any of the top forwards in the front of the draft we would definitely need to trade PJ off because he is being paid starters wages and would not be getting played starters minutes over our new core. 

If that happened we could draft a PG at 30 and look to find someone with size to groom at the 5 with our later pick. There may even be many 5's who do not get drafted that we could test out and maybe find another Cisse with slightly more to offer given the depth of this draft. I tend to think use our last pick on a 3 point assassin or another PG to double your odds of getting a find just because your likely to find a center that is worth getting on board among the undrafted.

Bagley along with Moussa is a nice package to provide depth when and if our injured get injured again. I think it would be credible depth with defense stretching capability. I just pray Lively is back to being the impressive beast at the 5 he was prior to missing most of the season.

Could you get a nice young PG for PJ and Gafford if that was our situation? Kyrie and Ryan are a nice combo but another young PG that stands out with some size is sort of a necessary player to add IMHO.

[Winter]

Mullins is off the board. He will return to UCONN.

Probably good for him.

[Knutsen]

I don't think there's any avenue for OKC to cap-juggle their way past their salary woes. Some players can be kept, but others (who will be talented, and who they would prefer to keep) will simply have to go. There's just not enough money for everyone.

Instead imo the question will be WHICH players they will decide to shed, and how/if they will have to simply give away talent (vs if they can get something back for the players they decide to shed). In many ways, it will be a question of negotiating skill -- the whole league knows they are in a tight spot, but will they still be able to get good offers for what are their 2nd stringers? I think they will figure it out, but it will be interesting to see how they navigate it.

Do you see any realistic chance - in addition to you speaking it into existence, the same way you and me made sure we won the Flagg lottery - that now the „no fun job“ begins for Presti and he could be more interested in building up the next great team for example in Dallas? Especially if they would repeat as champions? 

I mean they still have all the chips on the table to continue being a top favorite for years, together with San Antonio, but it could still be their talent peak right now before the cap rules force them to reduce talent, right?

[Chicagojk]

I am a little worried a lot of players in the mid to late first may get concerned.   I think there will be some good options at 30, but I am not sure the late first is going to be as good as last years picks.   Maybe comparable.    We should not be hoping for a Brunson, Bane or Watson there.  I think the bar should be what Charlotte did this year with two early second rounders who both look to be longterm rotation pieces.    Dallas will likely have three late first round picks the next three years.   They won't hit on all of them.   1 of them should be the bar. Two would be awesome.   Maybe one of them overperforms and turns into a higher end role player.

[dirkfansince1998]

I am a little worried a lot of players in the mid to late first may get concerned.   I think there will be some good options at 30, but I am not sure the late first is going to be as good as last years picks.   Maybe comparable.    We should not be hoping for a Brunson, Bane or Watson there.  I think the bar should be what Charlotte did this year with two early second rounders who both look to be longterm rotation pieces.    Dallas will likely have three late first round picks the next three years.   They won't hit on all of them.   1 of them should be the bar. Two would be awesome.   Maybe one of them overperforms and turns into a higher end role player.

It's enticing because next years class looks even worse than the 2024 draft. As far as business/career decision goes things have changed because being a second round pick this years doesn't guarantee more money than another year of college basketball. Lots of freshman that are mocked in the late first/early second round could easily make the lottery next year (Graves, Allen, Okorie just to name a few).
Still think this is an incredible draft class. Both in terms of depth and top tier talent. Mavs should definitely try to add picks. Not like they have anything else to invest into if they are serious about a rebuilld around Flagg.

[dirkfansince1998]

And just because I am trying to speak it into existence. Boozer is the perfect example of people overthinking stuff. He basically has no flaws. Can do it all. Processes the game at a different speed compared to his peers. With robotic precision. Resulting in (statistically) one of the best college seasons of all time (maybe the best freshman season ever). As the youngest player of his class.
No need to make any projections of what he could be if he adds x/y/z. But somehow that translates to a lower ceiling because he cannot jump out of the building. Reminds me of Luka going third because people prefered the upside of Ayton and the athletic profile of Bagley (quick second jump...lol).

My personal highlight. His passing. Some MVP level NBA bigs never figured out how to pass out of the double team. Boozer makes it look easy.

https://x.com/bjpf_/status/2040155751054970907

[Scott41theMavs]

And just because I am trying to speak it into existence. Boozer is the perfect example of people overthinking stuff. He basically has no flaws. Can do it all. Processes the game at a different speed compared to his peers. With robotic precision. Resulting in (statistically) one of the best college seasons of all time (maybe the best freshman season ever). As the youngest player of his class.
No need to make any projections of what he could be if he adds x/y/z. But somehow that translates to a lower ceiling because he cannot jump out of the building. Reminds me of Luka going third because people prefered the upside of Ayton and the athletic profile of Bagley (quick second jump...lol).

My personal highlight. His passing. Some MVP level NBA bigs never figured out how to pass out of the double team. Boozer makes it look easy.

https://x.com/bjpf_/status/2040155751054970907

I've said it over and over again. He doesn't have the physical tools to guard the perimeter nor defend the rim. There are some bigs who he will be able to guard effectively, but he's going to get targeted and abused on switches in the L nearly as much as Acuff.

[dirkfansince1998]

I've said it over and over again. He doesn't have the physical tools to guard the perimeter nor defend the rim. There are some bigs who he will be able to guard effectively, but he's going to get targeted and abused on switches in the L nearly as much as Acuff.

Is he a worse athlet than prime Horford? Or as a more recent example Ighodaro? Don't think so. People are just searching for flaws and because they cannot find anything they are taking the Luka approach and pretend that his game won't translate to the NBA because he isn't an S-tier athlet. For a big he has above average mobility and quick hands but people act as if he moves like old men Dirk because he cannot switch 1-5.
People just ignore that defense is about much more than just athleticism. And as far as the mental/IQ/awareness aspects of the game go is just levels above the rest of his class. Not to mention that impact metrics (DBPM and +/-) suggest that Boozer was a top 10 defender in college basketball but apparently we still live in 2002 and pretend that Olowokandi and Bynum are good defenders because they can block shots.

[cow]

Boozer will be long off the board by the time the Mavs pick, sadly.

[Scott41theMavs]

Boozer will be long off the board by the time the Mavs pick, sadly.

Lol, neither the coin flip nor the lottery have taken place yet.

[F Gump]

Do you see any realistic chance - in addition to you speaking it into existence, the same way you and me made sure we won the Flagg lottery - that now the „no fun job“ begins for Presti and he could be more interested in building up the next great team for example in Dallas? Especially if they would repeat as champions? 

I mean they still have all the chips on the table to continue being a top favorite for years, together with San Antonio, but it could still be their talent peak right now before the cap rules force them to reduce talent, right?

That's a fair question. And it's possible. 

However, I think the avenue to getting Presti is less about him wanting out of a hard situation, and more about him being enticed with a SIGNIFICANT raise.