2026 NBA draft thread

[Smitty]

Maybe we should give Flagg the point guard role back and challenge him to average 10 assists from here on out, so that it at least has a true development wrinkle losing all these games, I don’t know.

Nearly every Flagg game I've watched, he's still in that "PG role". He initiates a lot of the offense. I expect him to do so more and more throughout his career, not less.

[vfromlmf]

More fun with lottery odds:

If the Mavs finsih with the 6th best lottery odds, it's actually common for at least one team with worse odds to jump them. In fact, a team in the 6th spot is more likely to be jumped (54.2%) than they are to move up themselves (37.2%).

[mvossman]

More fun with lottery odds:

If the Mavs finsih with the 6th best lottery odds, it's actually common for at least one team with worse odds to jump them. In fact, a team in the 6th spot is more likely to be jumped (54.2%) than they are to move up themselves (37.2%).

What is really odd is that a team that finishes 6th is more likely to get the first pick than the 6th pick.  The 5th spot is even weirder.  That pick is almost guaranteed to come from a top 4 team (98%).

[Scott41theMavs]

Tonight's game featured a great deal of effing around (especially in the 4th quarter) but fortunately resulted in the Mavs not finding out.

Mavs now just half a game shy of the Pels and one full game shy of the Jazz. Lose lose lose.

I would say that Thursday night's game is by far the most crucial must-lose the rest of the way. The Grizz want to catch us going down and the Pels want to catch us going up. I think we'll finish ahead of the Pels in the tank standings regardless of what happens in that game, but the Grizz are in question.

[Mavs2021]

What is really odd is that a team that finishes 6th is more likely to get the first pick than the 6th pick.  The 5th spot is even weirder.  That pick is almost guaranteed to come from a top 4 team (98%).

Not that weird really. To stay in 5th for the 5th placed team, means that one of the top four teams has to win the top pick (54.5%), then from the remaining three teams one has to win the 2nd pick (~39%), then from the remaining two teams one of them has to win the third pick (~24.6%), then the remaining team has to win the 4th pick (~11.5%). If not all of these happen, the 5th team moves down.

[Scott41theMavs]

Not that weird really. To stay in 5th for the 5th placed team, means that one of the top four teams has to win the top pick (54.5%), then from the remaining three teams one has to win the 2nd pick (~39%), then from the remaining two teams one of them has to win the third pick (~24.6%), then the remaining team has to win the 4th pick (~11.5%). If not all of these happen, the 5th team moves down.

Sure, it makes sense mathematically, but it's odd in that they set it up to be that way.

[F Gump]

 
I would say that Thursday night's game is by far the most crucial must-lose the rest of the way. The Grizz want to catch us going down and the Pels want to catch us going up. I think we'll finish ahead of the Pels in the tank standings regardless of what happens in that game, but the Grizz are in question.

Good analysis ^.

Apparently Kidd is well aware too of the stakes, and is setting the stage for the Mavs making awful lineup decisions for a "reason" (supposedly) that isn't tanking. He said today: “We’re just looking at different combinations as we go forward and we can look at different starting lineups, different rotations. We have 18 games left to look at those things. We’ll start that tonight.”

The Mavs aren't looking for the BEST lineup to play, and win. They are looking for experimental combos, to see what happens. The team will play hard of course, but the end result is not expected to look good. 

As a staunch member of Team Tank, I am thrilled.

[Knutsen]

Good analysis ^.

Apparently Kidd is well aware too of the stakes, and is setting the stage for the Mavs making awful lineup decisions for a "reason" (supposedly) that isn't tanking. He said today: “We’re just looking at different combinations as we go forward and we can look at different starting lineups, different rotations. We have 18 games left to look at those things. We’ll start that tonight.”

The Mavs aren't looking for the BEST lineup to play, and win. They are looking for experimental combos, to see what happens. The team will play hard of course, but the end result is not expected to look good. 

As a staunch member of Team Tank, I am thrilled.

So the mad scientist is kind of back, great! Where’s Raef LaFrentz as our point center?

[Chicagojk]

It will be real interesting to see how the second half of the first half unfolds.  Right now, it looks like a deep draft.  Although with the changes in NIL and a supposed weak 2027 draft, this may change.  I was listening to a podcast with the transfer portal and the huge $ out there in college basketball, it is really hard to turn down 2 plus million to stay in college if you are not a sure fire first round pick.

[Chicagojk]

Quite a performance by AJ last night.   The highlights look like a man playing against boys.

[Scott41theMavs]

...and the Pels catch the Mavs!!!

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

...and the Mavs catch Pels the !!!

FIFY 

[Chicagojk]

Mavs favored by 4.5 points on the road in Memphis tomorrow. Vegas might have some insider knowledge that the Grizz will be suiting up their dance team to play.

[Jym]

A good day on Tankathon
Out of my 7 spins, we were Top 4 five times and #1 twice

[vfromlmf]

A good day on Tankathon
Out of my 7 spins, we were Top 4 five times and #1 twice

Please don't waste the #1s. 

If you use them all up on that stupid website there won't be any luck left for the real drawing.

[Chicagojk]

Interesting shot profiles of the point guard prospects

https://x.com/mavsfilmroom/status/203214...43645?s=61

[ballsrchr]

Interesting shot profiles of the point guard prospects

https://x.com/mavsfilmroom/status/203214...43645?s=61

I like Acuff's shot distribution...and his completion percentages.  If he can play any defense at all it would make him look pretty good.

[Mavs2021]

Interesting shot profiles of the point guard prospects

https://x.com/mavsfilmroom/status/203214...43645?s=61

My dream scenario is to move into any of the top 4, then trade up 8-10 spots from 30 to grab Anderson and take one of Krivas, Chinyelu, Momcilovic at #50.

[F Gump]

My dream scenario is to move into any of the top 4, then trade up 8-10 spots from 30 to grab Anderson and take one of Krivas, Chinyelu, Momcilovic at #50.

Top 4 pick
Anderson
Krivas

That would be an amazing draft outcome imo. Make it happen, please.

[Chicagojk]

First time I have seen Anderson today. I watched the first half against Iowa State.  I like him.   Nice shot and some really nice passes.   

I have no idea what to do with Stirtz, but it is tough that you have the top 4 point guards in the 5-9 range.  Than Maybe Burries.  Then you have Philon and Anderson.  Both are sophmores but younger than Burries.   They don't have the perceived upside of the top 4 point guards, but it wouldn't shock me if they turned out better than a few.  It would not surprise me to see Anderson, Tanner and the Stanford PG stay in college, make a big NIL salary and try again next year.  I think Philon is in the draft though.