Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[mvossman]

In fact, that trade happens over and over - it's just not as well-defined or certain (nor did I say it would be) as you have chosen to describe it. 

*One team wants the finished product, whose ability and production is already known, and there's no waiting for him to be developed. He's already been doing it.
*The other team is willing to roll the dice on a player who might turn out to be as good, or even better, but he certainly is no sure thing and will have to develop further. No idea how long it will take, either. As a future draft pick, you don't even know who that player will be, further clouding what might lay ahead.

Both teams are taking a chance that the road ahead with the guy they are getting will go according to plan. But in theory, it's Today's Star (who you think and hope has plenty of years ahead at a high level, but...) for Tomorrow's (with tomorrow's arrival date probably being 3-5 years down the road ...and maybe more ...or maybe never).

In any event, of course I'm not getting a surefire AD-to-be, but I want a player (or a shot at one) who has some high-level upside if all goes well. 

And if you don't give me a reasonable chance to end up somewhere down the road with a player of AD's caliber (once he's been developed and grows), if all goes well, I am really not interested enough to pull the trigger. Maybe explore what's out there from some other team. Maybe I keep him. That doesn't scare me.

This sentence "who you think and hope has plenty of years ahead at a high level" might be the source of our biggest disagreement.  Big men with chronic injury issues historically don't age well.  And many times the decline is steep.  I think there is a very high probability that he will be a negative asset in the last year of his current contract when he will be turning 35 and making 64 million dollars, and I think any team that extends him will likely regret it.

I also think the concept of talent for talent is too narrow of scope.  It ignores so many other factors.  I think value for value is a better way to look at it.  I believe Risacher plus a mid round pick in the upcoming draft will provide more on court production per dollar than what AD will long term.  Given your dislike of Risacher and your dismissing of non lottery picks, plus your high valuation of AD long term means you don't think that is enough value.  It also explains why you are more willing to hang onto AD.  Because you think you can move him later whereas I think we have a limited window.   It all gets back to different valuations.

[F Gump]

Show me a team that will offer a JJ level player for AD. He is arguably a better and obviously a much younger player than him on a very reasonable cost controlled contract for four more seasons. Teams that will trade for AD will want to become instant contenders. You don't become that by trading your best player. Everything you are saying points that your preference is to keep Davis. Agree to disagree that this is the right strategy for Mavs. 

At the moment it looks like the ceiling for Risacher is a top level role player. Is that really something bad to have next to Flagg? Lively-Flagg-Risacher-Max is a very good young core. Cost controlled for next season before extensions for Max and Lively will need to be made. Although these two will probably not demand much higher money than TE (if at all). Another season before ZR extension time comes.

I'm not sure what your point is. All of the above is obvious about JJ, which was the point I was making. You were saying R perhaps qualified as a potential star player. No he isnt. But JJ is.

As you acknowledge here, R's upside is perhaps a role player. His UPSIDE. And he might end up less. If thats all you can get for AD, imo its better to keep him.

I want and expect to get a player (or pick) who might one day be AD level (not necessarily same, not necessarily same position, but highly talented). R is NOT that guy. If R is the main asset, the return is way light, too light to make the deal. imo

[Smitty]

Agree on CMB. I don’t think there is an appetizing deal with TOR. My guess is their offer would be Poeltl, Barrett, Agbaji, and picks. I don’t think there is any chance the #4 seed would trade their starting PG and SG. Right now, they still need Quickley badly. Poeltl has an AWFUL contract that goes through 2030, and the massive extension doesn’t start until ‘27. Yuck. Barrett could be flipped to someone else. He wants a massive extension. No thanks. Mavs would have to release players…..I think Tor would have to get someone else involved and pay through the nose to make it work. I’d have to have their ‘26, ‘28, and ‘30 1sts at minimum, and their ‘26 pick won’t be very good. I’m in the “trade AD for just about anything” camp; however, this is one I’d actually just rather have AD.

Toronto could make the same deal I presented with Agbaji instead of CMB. Their salaries are almost identical. Including Poeltl in any deal makes it incredibly complicated and would almost certainly have to include a 3rd team. Again, I was only trying to show the absolute best package the Raptors could offer. If I'm being realistic and trying to see it from both sides, I still think the money has to be Quickley+Barrett, they may need Quickley to compete this year but that's their problem, as I'm sure the Mavs don't even care for him anyway. It's probably why we don't talk about Toronto too much.

Would the Mavs do the deal with Agbaji (expiring) instead?

Quickley, Barrett, Agbaji, '27 FRP, '28 FRP Swap, '29 FRP, '30 FRP Swap
FOR
Davis, DLO, B-Will, Martin

Feels forced on both sides to me, and I'm probably keeping Davis...


Edit: The simplest framework for Poeltl instead of Quickley is Poeltl+Barrett+Agbaji OR CMB + the pick package FOR Davis + B-Will. The Mavs would have to waive Exum, and no room for Nemby unless they also waive Powell down the line. And the Raptors would need to covert one of their two-ways to get to the minimum 14.

[Chicagojk]

Man, that Toronto package does not interest me at all.  I would roll the dice that AD miraculously has a few months of health next year

Reading Toronto boards they think it would be Poetl, Quickley, and Agbaji.   With maybe a first round pick included.  Gag me with a spoon.

[KillerLeft]

Lively-Flagg-Risacher-Max is a very good young core. 

Not only that, but they all fit really well together on court, skills wise (on paper, at least). I am much, much higher on Risacher's potential than many around here, so I'd be excited about getting him. However, I don't think it's enough to get me to do the deal. Draft capital, and decent draft capital at that, would be a must for me in any ATL scenario. Probably won't get THE pick, but I'd hold out for it long enough to make ATL feel good about giving up a couple of other ones, as if they're "winning" a little. Still, I don't think Risacher is the chopped liver he's being made out to be. He's definitely part of the prize for me.

[Chicagojk]

So Washington's pick is top 8 protected.  If it is past that, it goes to the Knicks.  They should be safe from that, but a nice little five game winning streak could cause a little stress.  So they hope Young is good, but not that good.

In the West, the Jazz pick goes to OKC if it falls outside of the top 8.   I expect the Jazz slide in the standings but it looks like they will be close to the 8th best odds, so without lottery luck they may be sweating draft night pretty hard.

[Smitty]

Reading Toronto boards they think it would be Poetl, Quickley, and Agbaji.   With maybe a first round pick included.  Gag me with a spoon.

Maybe one of the worst contracts in the league in Poeltl, a PG that doesn't fit here at all and has 3/$97.5M remaining on his deal, and a nobody. Mavs fans would probably protest at the arena again, if that was the trade return for Davis. The "maybe a FRP included" part was funny. I don't think the Raptors have enough picks to offer to make me do that deal.

[omahen]

So they hope Young is good, but not that good.

There are already rumors that Washington might just shut down Young for this season. 

I agree Utah is playing with fire. They want to build around Markanen (at least these are the messages around) after next season, but that will be very difficult if they lose the pick this year. So far they didn't have any luck from getting a top end talent from their years of tanking. Ainge is also doing a very bad job by overvaluing his role players and then losing them for almost nothing (they got 1 SRP for Collins), nothing (Clarkson) or even paying (Sexton + SRP for Nurkic). A prime example of how keeping a strong negotiating position is in no way a guarantee that leads to best end result.

[mvossman]

Maybe one of the worst contracts in the league in Poeltl, a PG that doesn't fit here at all and has 3/$97.5M remaining on his deal, and a nobody. Mavs fans would probably protest at the arena again, if that was the trade return for Davis. The "maybe a FRP included" part was funny. I don't think the Raptors have enough picks to offer to make me do that deal.

Yep, and the other trades proposed has D'lo as their starting PG.  Just not a good fit.

[KillerLeft]

So obviously, anyone can look great in highlights. The point of posting these isn't to convince anyone that Risacher might be a star, because I don't think he will be. However, there IS a reason ATL took the gamble on him at #1 (in a weak draft). Guys at this length who move this well, this quickly, and with this kind of shooting touch just aren't really out there very often. He's almost as big as Flagg, and imo he's the prototypical perfect complement/counterpart to Flagg at the other forward position if he becomes a little more consistent (a much better fit than either PJW or Naji Marshall), and he's only 20. And, I can even see him playing a little off guard. He's quick enough for it. 

https://youtu.be/9MNGUeMCxzc?si=EP6_4Nua0-5igs1F
This was just the other night. My favorite moment is the offhand block from behind. 

https://youtu.be/lFtBdB4c23w?si=3YQf-BXYAIhiaMA6
This was one of his better games last season. 

I get it - lots of players with potential never live up to it. Most, maybe. But, what this kid is good at, and trying to become consistent at achieving, is one of the main skillsets the Mavs need around Flagg. Honestly, I can see why the Mavs would be interested in this kid. I can see the vision. This would be a better "get" than we're acknowledging, I think.

EDIT: To put it another way, of all the players (not picks) I've seen rumored to be part of a Davis deal, Risacher is the most interesting to me BY FAR. Get this kid, keep Thompson around for another year to mentor him. Draft a PG and let Kyrie mentor him for a year or so, and you might actually have something here (assuming Lively figures out how to be a little more durable, of course).

[Smitty]

 Lively-Flagg-Risacher-Max is a very good young core.

The idea of Lively is greater than the reality. Max has shown flashes, but will he only ever be a role player? Same for Risacher. I'm not saying it's not a good core to work with and see, but there's a world where Lively-Max-Risacher are just bench players 2-3 years from now.

[mvossman]

So obviously, anyone can look great in highlights. The point of posting these isn't to convince anyone that Risacher might be a star, because I don't think he will be. However, there IS a reason ATL took the gamble on him at #1 (in a weak draft). Guys at this length who move this well, this quickly, and with this kind of shooting touch just aren't really out there very often. He's almost as big as Flagg, and imo he's the prototypical perfect complement/counterpart to Flagg at the other forward position if he becomes a little more consistent (a much better fit than either PJW or Naji Marshall), and he's only 20. And, I can even see him playing a little off guard. He's quick enough for it. 

https://youtu.be/9MNGUeMCxzc?si=EP6_4Nua0-5igs1F
This was just the other night. My favorite moment is the offhand block from behind. 

https://youtu.be/lFtBdB4c23w?si=3YQf-BXYAIhiaMA6
This was one of his better games last season. 

I get it - lots of players with potential never live up to it. Most, maybe. But, what this kid is good at, and trying to become consistent at achieving, is one of the main skillsets the Mavs need around Flagg. Honestly, I can see why the Mavs would be interested in this kid. I can see the vision. This would be a better "get" than we're acknowledging, I think.

Yep.  And scoring 13 points a game as starter with decent efficiency and quality defense at 19 is more than just potential.

[mvossman]

The idea of Lively is greater than the reality. Max has shown flashes, but will he only ever be a role player? Same for Risacher. I'm not saying it's not a good core to work with and see, but there's a world where Lively-Max-Risacher are just bench players 2-3 years from now.

Disagree on Lively.  He was starter quality in a finals run as a rookie.  He is legit starter, its just the health that is a concern.

Max at minimum is 20-25 minutes rotation player.

Risacher was already that at 19.  Maybe he does not develop at all, but I think reasonable long-term projection is quality starter.

They still need to find a true Robin to Flagg as I don't think any of those guys will be it, but they are great young pieces to fill around.

[Smitty]

Oh no...

[Lewenberg] The Toronto Raptors have shown “exploratory interest” in Anthony Davis with their trade package likely being built around RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl, and two or three first-round draft picks.

[Smitty]

Disagree on Lively.  He was starter quality in a finals run as a rookie.  He is legit starter, its just the health that is a concern.

Penciling in Lively for anything is just silly. I get that people disagree, but I've been saying it for too long now not to go all-in with this opinion.

[KillerLeft]

Disagree on Lively.  He was starter quality in a finals run as a rookie.  He is legit starter, its just the health that is a concern.

Agree with your point, overall, but I think this undersells Lively a little, even. I'd say he was a difference making starter on finals team as a rookie, and one of the very main reasons they got to the finals. 

He for sure has injury concerns at this point, no argument. But I'm still hopeful they're a blip, not the norm. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but there's just no denying how special he could be if I'm right.

[KillerLeft]

Oh no...

[Lewenberg] The Toronto Raptors have shown “exploratory interest” in Anthony Davis with their trade package likely being built around RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl, and two or three first-round draft picks.

This is AWESOME! This is the nudge ATL needs to cough up whatever it is they're currently trying to protect from the deal. Some think it's the New Orleans pick, and maybe they're right, maybe they're wrong, but this should give Dallas even more leverage than they already have in the wake of that Trae Young trade. The timing of it screams negotiation through the media.

An interesting aspect of this: ATL and TOR were the two teams who duked it out recently to get Brandon Ingram. I can honestly see that episode still being stuck in ATL's craw a little.

[Tyler]

Oh no...

[Lewenberg] The Toronto Raptors have shown “exploratory interest” in Anthony Davis with their trade package likely being built around RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl, and two or three first-round draft picks.

The Warriors have never been shy about the cap. I wonder if they'd take Poeltl for Kuminga.

[KillerLeft]

The Warriors have never been shy about the cap. I wonder if they'd take Poeltl for Kuminga.

Honestly, my read on this is that it's out there to motivate ATL, but...playing out the hypothetical, I think your mind is in the right place. They'd have to dump Poeltl for this to make any sense. Kuminga's expiring money (team option next year) is one possible way that could go. 

What's the TOR pick situation? Do they have any good ones to offer?

[FireNicoHarrison]

Oh no...

[Lewenberg] The Toronto Raptors have shown “exploratory interest” in Anthony Davis with their trade package likely being built around RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl, and two or three first-round draft picks.

Not bad... But they can do better.