Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[F Gump]

The Mavs don't NEED to do a deal. But ATL does. Otherwise, they stay mired in nowhere land, because they suck at defense. AD can fix that.

The Mavs need to be getting the NO pick, if ATL is getting AD. That's the hinge point, deal or no deal. Risacher is not a prize - he's mainly just a salary for the trade match. (If he's a deal-killer in your mind, take him out and put different salary in, just so long as the number of players is basically equal going both directions. You'll end up putting R in the deal, as ATL has everyone else off-limits!) Without the NO pick coming back in return, I would not send AD to ATL, it's just that simple.

I think the Mavs know all that, and are bargaining accordingly.

[Dirknows]

I think there are more than a few people that think the Pelicans pick is not really in play. It seems to me Atlanta has already told their fan base that it's off limits.

I do think they want to squeeze two picks out of it though.

I’m sure Dallas wants to draw a line in the sand that it’s NOP pick or no deal, however I think they will ultimately cave for the Cleveland and a future first.

[FireNicoHarrison]

The Mavs don't NEED to do a deal. But ATL does. Otherwise, they stay mired in nowhere land, because they suck at defense. AD can fix that.

The Mavs need to be getting the NO pick, if ATL is getting AD. That's the hinge point, deal or no deal. Risacher is not a prize - he's mainly just a salary for the trade match. (If he's a deal-killer in your mind, take him out and put different salary in, just so long as the number of players is basically equal going both directions. You'll end up putting R in the deal, as ATL has everyone else off-limits!) Without the NO pick coming back in return, I would not send AD to ATL, it's just that simple.

I think the Mavs know all that, and are bargaining accordingly.

Yes, we are on the same page my old friend Gump... I hope you are right and we can get in some way that pick.

I don't care too much about Risacher.

[Smitty]

You guys are absolutely delusional if you think we could get both Risacher and the Pelicans pick for AD. 

I absolutely agree that in the end, if/when the AD trade happens, both of those assets won't be in the deal. BUT one of them will be. I don't agree with some that the NOP pick is "off limits". Some act as though it is the guaranteed #1 pick in the draft and that the top guy is already going to be MJ-lite. 

The Hawks will give up something. From their POV Risacher, who I don't have a strong opinion on either way, is their #1 overall pick from last year. They surely value him, as do their fans. How the Mavs brass value the player, we don't know. I think Risacher and pick(s) of some kind (not the NO pick) will be what the "prize" is for AD in the end. I keep coming back to the '27 FRP being a real want for the Mavs FO, since they owe theirs to CHA...

[DanSchwartzgan]

1 " D'Lo/Hardy for Kispert" -- Doesn't match unless you add Exum (3 for 1) and you then need AD to be swapped for 3 (KP, R, and a small salary). However, Wallace or Gueye may be too small outgoing to keep them below tax line, in fact - I originally worked from your "8.3Mish" number, and on closer examination I think it's only about 6.64M of space. 

I hope your number is right, but if not, it really limits the possibilities, because of the roster limits and the looming addition of Nemby. 
 

I've been having to work between the Fanspo Trade Checker and the Spotrac Trade Checker to get a full picture of what works/doesn't work.  Unfortunately, they disagree about Atlanta's payroll.  Both sites have already moved players to their new teams.  Fanspo still has the number at $8.3mm under the tax.  Spotrac has it at $6.78mm.  Most of the difference appears to be some second rounder from 2024 named Nikola Djurisic.  He makes $1.272mm this year and Fanspo doesn't show him on Atlanta's roster at all.  

Atlanta does have four guys at the end of their roster who are either non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed.  But, it doesn't appear they did anything by yesterday to move off of any of them.  

I thought the possibilities of an AD deal that keeps Atlanta under the tax were tight when I was using the Fanspo number.  But, if it's the smaller one Spotrac number (which I fear is true), this gets even more challenging once the Trae deal becomes official.  It kind of lends credence to what Killer has said about why they might be holding this open.  If deadlines make deals, Atlanta may have created a deadline.

[Winter]

I think if you were Atlanta, and you had to give up Risacher OR the #2 pick in the draft (possibly Boozer), you would likely give up Risacher. Boozer's pedigree of awards, his stats, and his overall profile are heads and tails above Risacher's European experience. Dybantsa less so, but still.... would anyone choose Risacher over Dybantsa? Any of top 5 picks in this draft?

Atlanta has had almost a full season to analyze Risacher in an NBA. They probably know more about him than anyone. I have a hard time imagining that Risacher OR the pick is really debatable for them.

[Smitty]

I've been having to work between the Fanspo Trade Checker and the Spotrac Trade Checker to get a full picture of what works/doesn't work.  Unfortunately, they disagree about Atlanta's payroll.  Both sites have already moved players to their new teams.  Fanspo still has the number at $8.3mm under the tax.  Spotrac has it at $6.78mm.  Most of the difference appears to be some second rounder from 2024 named Nikola Djurisic.  He makes $1.272mm this year and Fanspo doesn't show him on Atlanta's roster at all.  

Atlanta does have four guys at the end of their roster who are either non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed.  But, it doesn't appear they did anything by yesterday to move off of any of them.  

I thought the possibilities of an AD deal that keeps Atlanta under the tax were tight when I was using the Fanspo number.  But, if it's the smaller one Spotrac number (which I fear is true), this gets even more challenging once the Trae deal becomes official.  It kind of lends credence to what Killer has said about why they might be holding this open.  If deadlines make deals, Atlanta may have created a deadline.

I know some of us have been working with the assumption that the Hawks will not go into the LT this season, but if they’re making a trade for Davis in-season it means that they are “going for it”. If you think you’re a contender in the East, you may be willing to pay the tax for a year.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I thought the possibilities of an AD deal that keeps Atlanta under the tax were tight when I was using the Fanspo number.  But, if it's the smaller one Spotrac number (which I fear is true), this gets even more challenging once the Trae deal becomes official.  It kind of lends credence to what Killer has said about why they might be holding this open.  If deadlines make deals, Atlanta may have created a deadline.

If we end up with Kispert today, the two possibilities I see are KP/ZR/Kispert for either AD/Powell/Hardy or AD/Powell/D'Lo (assuming Risacher is in the deal).  Either keeps Atlanta under the tax using your/Spotrac's smaller number and is a 3 for 3 that preserves the ability to waive Exum in order to sign Nembhard.  

If you do this later and want to use Kennard instead of Kispert, then it is AD, Powell and Exum or Williams that keeps Atlanta under the tax (assuming Risacher is also in the deal).

[omahen]

The Mavs don't NEED to do a deal. But ATL does. Otherwise, they stay mired in nowhere land, because they suck at defense. AD can fix that.

I understand we and teams can have different positions on valuation of certain players and their impact on specific teams. I am much less optimistic.

As Meister said, AD is a very high risk asset - this is valid for Atlanta and Dallas both. You act as if he is a certainty while the reality is that he is injured half of the time. He has also not really brought much to Dallas in terms of result success (neither has he in last 5 or so seasons with Lakers) which could be used as an argument what a superstar, surefire result changing, immediate contender level great player he is. 

Atlanta has a great base of the team now, with their whole core being young and locked up long-term on very manageable and tradeable deals. Great financial position too. They have the NO pick with which they can hope for another top end young talent and they have plenty of cap space to acquire another very good player in the summer to cover their needs at C and PG. If I am them, this is a far better position than going all in on an often injured aging star. Even if we neglect the significant AD injury risks, there is zero guarantee that such drastically changing mid-season trades (Young and Davis) will make this team a title contender. 

From Mavs perspective, I agree there is not that much urgency to sell immediately. However, if AD plays well, which will increase his value, Mavs results will also be better decreasing the chance for a top pick. Is this really best case Mavs scenario moving forward? If he doesn't play well or if he gets injured, his value in the summer will not be any higher. Dan pointed this out several times already. 

I think Atlanta will include Risacher as this makes salaries work with KP and Kennard (add minor salary players for everything to work regarding roster slots). There are reports that Dallas does value him. But I don't think Atlanta will give up the NO pick.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I know some of us have been working with the assumption that the Hawks will not go into the LT this season, but if they’re making a trade for Davis in-season it means that they are “going for it”. If you think you’re a contender in the East, you may be willing to pay the tax for a year.

That is absolutely possible, but it isn't their nature.  They have paid it once in the last 15 years and in 11/12 their payment was $670,000.  It isn't so much the tax as it is missing out on the tax distribution (estimated to be $14mm this year).

I think it could also present a bargaining obstacle for Dallas getting what they want (he who defines the debate wins).  Dallas, if you want us to do ________ which puts us into the tax, then we have to take __________ off the table.

[Smitty]

That is absolutely possible, but it isn't their nature.  They have paid it once in the last 15 years and in 11/12 their payment was $670,000.  It isn't so much the tax as it is missing out on the tax distribution (estimated to be $14mm this year).

I think it could also present a bargaining obstacle for Dallas getting what they want (he who defines the debate wins).  Dallas, if you want us to do ________ which puts us into the tax, then we have to take __________ off the table.

For sure! I get it, and if I'm the Mavs, I need to be the one dipping under the tax line this TDL. Tanking teams don't need to be paying LT. It's fascinating either way. I think it's absolutely part of the negotiation/motivation for each side and why it's not as simple as "What is AD's value". There's a lot more to it...

[omahen]

If we end up with Kispert today, the two possibilities I see are KP/ZR/Kispert for either AD/Powell/Hardy or AD/Powell/D'Lo (assuming Risacher is in the deal).  Either keeps Atlanta under the tax using your/Spotrac's smaller number and is a 3 for 3 that preserves the ability to waive Exum in order to sign Nembhard.  

If you do this later and want to use Kennard instead of Kispert, then it is AD, Powell and Exum or Williams that keeps Atlanta under the tax (assuming Risacher is also in the deal).

 
I don't think Kispert will be included. Seems like Atlanta likes him and I guess Mavs would in any case not be too enthusiastic about getting his long term salary. The salary part of the deal that keeps Atlanta under the tax is:
KP, Risacher and Kennard for AD, Powell and Exum 

If Mavs want to creat a roster spot for Nembhard, they can buy out either KP or Kennard or potentially get it through trade of their other vets (Klay, Gafford,...). These trades are likely to follow if Mavs decide to trade AD.

[DanSchwartzgan]

As Meister said, AD is a very high risk asset - this is valid for Atlanta and Dallas both. You act as if he is a certainty while the reality is that he is injured half of the time. He has also not really brought much to Dallas in terms of result success (neither has he in last 5 or so seasons with Lakers) which could be used as an argument what a superstar, surefire result changing, immediate contender level great player he is. 

From Mavs perspective, if AD plays well, Mavs results will also be better decreasing the chance for a top pick. Is this really best case Mavs scenario moving forward? If he doesn't play well or if he gets injured, his value in the summer will not be any higher. Dan pointed this out several times already. 

I think Atlanta will include Risacher as this makes salaries work with KP and Kennard (add minor salary players for everything to work regarding roster slots). There are reports that Dallas does value him. But I don't think Atlanta will give up the NO pick.

I made a few edits, but this aligns well with my thinking.  The one thing I will add is living so close to Apron 2 might be limiting something else Dallas might want to do.  FG just showed us how challenging a non-aggregated deal involving Kispert might be.  It wasn't the matching dollars, it was the Apron 2 restrictions that make the deal difficult.

I think Dallas does need to move on from AD.  I hope it happens today and I hope it is Cleveland's pick, the 2027 from NOP/MIL and a swap in a year where we have a swap in place already with either SA or OKC (plus Risacher).  BTW, I don't mind Kispert.  He's really good from above the break which will help Flagg's driving game (and be helped by Flagg's driving game).  I hope, if we take him on, that we will then quickly announce a deal sending out Klay.

[Chicagojk]

Brandon Williams makes the minimum right?  Does including him change anything?  He has been playing well but sort of weird about his increased minutes the last few weeks.   Maybe they really like him but it just sounds a little strange.

[omahen]

Brandon Williams makes the minimum right?  Does including him change anything?  He has been playing well but sort of weird about his increased minutes the last few weeks.   Maybe they really like him but it just sounds a little strange.

I think Atlanta would very much prefer him to (for example) Powel, but he also doesn't move the needle regarding the NO pick, imho. He can be considered as a decent back-up on vet min. He will likely require a raise in the summer.

[DanSchwartzgan]

 
I don't think Kispert will be included. Seems like Atlanta likes him and I guess Mavs would in any case not be too enthusiastic about getting his long term salary. The salary part of the deal that keeps Atlanta under the tax is:
KP, Risacher and Kennard for AD, Powell and Exum 

If Mavs want to creat a roster spot for Nembhard, they can buy out either KP or Kennard or potentially get it through trade of their other vets (Klay, Gafford,...). These trades are likely to follow if Mavs decide to trade AD.

Kispert very likely won't be if the Trae deal finalizes without Dallas joining in today.  The AD/Powell/Exum construct can be done later.  So, that seems to be the obvious fallback.  

If we do end up waiting, I kind of liked FG's idea of including Keaton Wallace (Cason's older and slightly taller brother).  It takes the pressure off of needing to get more than 50 games out of Nembhard (or maybe having Wallace allows you to put Williams in the outgoing instead of Exum).  Just a thought.

[Chicagojk]

I think Atlanta would very much prefer him to (for example) Powel, but he also doesn't move the needle regarding the NO pick, imho. He can be considered as a decent back-up on vet min. He will likely require a raise in the summer.

Yeah, I think the NO pick is off the table.  That is the crown jewel for their new GM.  They got praise after praise for that move (and deservedly).   Queen is good though.   To give up that potential top pick for AD does not make sense.   Future draft picks always have the "what if" until they are picked.  In a draft that is considered one of the recent bests, you don't give that up.    After the year if that pick lands at #7 than it is a different conversation.   

The raise for B will is what I am thinking about.  What is his next contract?  If it is minimum or something close that is something else.  If it is 5 million or more, that may impact what the Mavs think.   He may be the third or 4th point guard option next year.

[Jmaciscool]

How long can they keep the wizards deal "open" to be adjusted? Is it 24 hours?

[michaeltex]

I've been having to work between the Fanspo Trade Checker and the Spotrac Trade Checker to get a full picture of what works/doesn't work.  Unfortunately, they disagree about Atlanta's payroll.  Both sites have already moved players to their new teams.  Fanspo still has the number at $8.3mm under the tax.  Spotrac has it at $6.78mm.  Most of the difference appears to be some second rounder from 2024 named Nikola Djurisic.  He makes $1.272mm this year and Fanspo doesn't show him on Atlanta's roster at all.  

Atlanta does have four guys at the end of their roster who are either non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed.  But, it doesn't appear they did anything by yesterday to move off of any of them.  

I thought the possibilities of an AD deal that keeps Atlanta under the tax were tight when I was using the Fanspo number.  But, if it's the smaller one Spotrac number (which I fear is true), this gets even more challenging once the Trae deal becomes official.  It kind of lends credence to what Killer has said about why they might be holding this open.  If deadlines make deals, Atlanta may have created a deadline.

FWIW, Basketball Reference also shows Djurisic on ATL's roster at the salary you cited above, with a team total of $179,928,695. Only this season for Djurisic is guaranteed, but the contract runs for two more, non-guaranteed, years, the last a TO. He was out injured to start the season and must be playing in the GLeague because there are no NBA stats for him.

[Dirknows]

Quote from Hollinger:

"I should point out one key piece of flexibility Atlanta lost in this trade, however: It severely constrains the Hawks’ options for any in-season pursuit of Anthony Davis. The Dallas Mavericks big man makes $54 million, and the players Atlanta acquired from Washington cannot be re-aggregated in any future trade this season. That means that stacking the salaries of McCollum and Kispert won’t work as a salary match. Instead, any potential Davis deal would pretty much have to send Porziņģis, Risacher and the expiring deal of Luke Kennard to the Mavs to meet league requirements."

So I think we know who would be coming here, unless the trade gets expanded.