Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[Knutsen]

I think you're right in pointing out this is more layered than ATL being desperate to dump Trae. 

Yet I have to think they do want to deal him somehow, and don't want to have to pay him $50M next season. Desperate? No. But I think "eager" might be a good word. Very eager, even. His future is not in ATL. Probably not even his present.

A second layer is WAS. The Wiz are willing to talk extension, but at what terms? I don't assume max, not at all. Although I suspect that's what Trae wants to hear. So Trae himself, and "what would Trae agree to," is a third layer. In fact, Trae and his team have been brought into the mix, probably to answer this very question so that WAS can get a better idea of what they would be getting in trade.

Objectively, I don't think Trae is anywhere close to a 50M-and-up player. But there is a number where he would be good value (and it could be locked in by an extend-and-trade deal). I think that number can impact a deal to WAS or elsewhere, and alter what ATL gets or what they might have to pay to make a deal happen. Because I think they are eager to get out from under paying him. 

Maybe all of this is easily resolved, but I think it's more likely to be a set of tough negotiations that could go any number of ways (including "nowhere").

Just out of curiosity - at which number would you like him on the Mavs for the next years?

I mean it would mean flipping Kyrie as soon as he’s proven he’s healthy, but Trae at least isn’t 15 years older than Cooper.

[Smitty]

CJ would likely go to Dallas in this deal, if we're looping in AD? This works on the trade machine, but I'm sure there are plenty of other ways to go...

Hawks: Davis, Martin
Wizards: Young
Mavs: McCollum (expiring), Coulibaly, Risacher, Pick(s)

That set of players to Dallas is so meh, and DAL taking back more players than they send causes a big issue (Mavs are already needing more open spots). 

The deal would have to include NO pick and another FRP. Else, why bother? I think I'd rather keep AD, and work to maximize the Mavs pick.

I don't disagree necessarily, but I've been pretty consistent that I expect AD's value to land around [Expiring + Young Player(s) + Pick(s)]. The discussion for me lies with who those players are and how good the perceived value of the pick(s) package is. I posted that fantasy trade minutes after the Stein tweet. It meets the requirement for what I believe AD to be "worth", but it was my first attempt, and I was just making a legal trade that could make sense.

Since then, I've thought it through some and found something that seems to be good from all 3 sides.

Hawks: Davis, Naji, DLO
Wizards: Young, Martin
Mavs: McCollum, Kispert, Risacher, Newell, Pick(s)

The Hawks stay just under the tax, which we know is a requirement in all of this. With this move the Mavs actually avoid the tax entirely this season, which is where a tanking team should be. I guess for me the argument is do I think the Mavs will be good next year with those young guys and draft picks added to Year 2 Cooper Flagg? Meh. Kispert is a good 3PT shooter, which Flagg needs more of around him. Risacher is the #1 overall pick from last year that seems to be slumping a bit his sophomore season. Newell is intriguing and has ties to Coop already but is an unknown rookie FRP. The draft pick selection(s) will be unknown(s) also. All of it is underwhelming but this is the bed they made...

[omahen]

I don't disagree necessarily, but I've been pretty consistent that I expect AD's value to land around [Expiring + Young Player(s) + Pick(s)]. The discussion for me lies with who those players are and how good the perceived value of the pick(s) package is. I posted that fantasy trade minutes after the Stein tweet. It meets the requirement for what I believe AD to be "worth", but it was my first attempt, and I was just making a legal trade that could make sense.

Since then, I've thought it through some and found something that seems to be good from all 3 sides.

Hawks: Davis, Naji, DLO
Wizards: Young, Martin
Mavs: McCollum, Kispert, Risacher, Newell, Pick(s)

The Hawks stay just under the tax, which we know is a requirement in all of this. With this move the Mavs actually avoid the tax entirely this season, which is where a tanking team should be. I guess for me the argument is do I think the Mavs will be good next year with those young guys and draft picks added to Year 2 Cooper Flagg? Meh. Kispert is a good 3PT shooter, which Flagg needs more of around him. Risacher is the #1 overall pick from last year that seems to be slumping a bit his sophomore season. Newell is intriguing and has ties to Coop already but is an unknown rookie FRP. The draft pick selection(s) will be unknown(s) also. All of it is underwhelming but this is the bed they made...

I think Atlanta would want to keep McCollum as replacement at PG which they need if trading Young. He is probably not their long term solution, but could be a more fitting option for remainder of the season than Young. Would accept lesser role if needed. Even as 6th man if Atlanta wants to try the Davis-Johnson-Daniels-NAW-Naji starting lineup. I think KP is the expiring salary going to Mavs.

[Smitty]

I think Atlanta would want to keep McCollum as replacement at PG which they need if trading Young. He is probably not their long term solution, but could be a more fitting option for remainder of the season than Young. Would accept lesser role if needed. Even as 6th man if Atlanta wants to try the Davis-Johnson-Daniels-NAW-Naji starting lineup. I think KP is the expiring salary going to Mavs.

I had the same thought. The trade works just the same financially with KP to Dallas and McCollum to Atlanta. Both are just expirings as far as the Mavs are concerned. Salaries are almost identical.

[Chicagojk]

I think Atlanta would want to keep McCollum as replacement at PG which they need if trading Young. He is probably not their long term solution, but could be a more fitting option for remainder of the season than Young. Would accept lesser role if needed. Even as 6th man if Atlanta wants to try the Davis-Johnson-Daniels-NAW-Naji starting lineup. I think KP is the expiring salary going to Mavs.

I would agree.   Question, does KP have any value?  30 million and him being injured/ill may make that hard.   A healthy KP could help teams though.   

Having him in Dallas again would be a little awkward.   Even just for a half a year.   Seems like it would be beneficial for all parties if they could find him an opportunity where he may find a longer stay.

[omahen]

I would agree.   Question, does KP have any value?  30 million and him being injured/ill may make that hard.   A healthy KP could help teams though.   

Having him in Dallas again would be a little awkward.   Even just for a half a year.   Seems like it would be beneficial for all parties if they could find him an opportunity where he may find a longer stay.

I think it all depends on Mavs plan for rest of season. They are currently 7th (with Charlotte) in tankaton race with a realistic path to fight for 5th place. So if the plan for rest of the season is an aggresive tank, than I guess Mavs would sell more vets. If they can't move KP, buyout or sitting him for rest of the season all get to play imho.

[Chicagojk]

Toronto popped up as a suitor for AD a few weeks ago but it was tough to find a match.   Checking out their reddit page, the fanbase seems to have a strong liking for Trae Young.   A fit is a little tougher to see as Toronto doesn't have expirings though.

[Dirknows]

I think it all depends on Mavs plan for rest of season. They are currently 7th (with Charlotte) in tankaton race with a realistic path to fight for 5th place. So if the plan for rest of the season is an aggresive tank, than I guess Mavs would sell more vets. If they can't move KP, buyout or sitting him for rest of the season all get to play imho.

We play the Jazz 3 times over the next few weeks. Gonna need to come up big with at least 2 losses in those games.

[soog]

Here is my stab at a 3-way with Atl/Was/Dal. I did my best to try and not to make this too one sided for any 1 team.

**Atl**
Receives: AD, Naji, Hardy, 2028 FRP OKC (from DAL)
Sends: Trae, Risacher, 2026 FRP NOP, 2027 FRP MIL, 2026 SRP BOS
Logic: Get AD and Naji who can be key parts in a playoff run, “lightning in a bottle” Hardy off the bench (who they can convince themselves still has upside), and gets Trae out like he wants. The net cost is Riscaher, 1 FRP, 1 SRP, and the swap of the 2028 OCK FRO for the 2027 MIL FRP. You can remove Hardy and the money still works.

**Dal**
Receives: Risacher, McCullom, Kispert, Bub, 2026 FRP NOP (from ATL), 2027 FRP MIL (From ATL)
Sends: AD, Naji, Hardy, 2028 FRP OKC, 2030 SRP PHI
Logic: Speeds up the rebuild (and the tank) with Risacher, 1 additional FRP this year, and 1 next year (at the expense of 1 future FRP and 1 future SRP). The outgoing OKC FRP is essentially a swap for the more favorable 2027 MIL FRP. I really wanted one more pick over the next two years and I think I like the 2027 MIL pick more than the 2026 SAS pick, but either would do. And this still leaves Dallas with their own 2028 FRP. I included the SRP outgoing to Was to help get the deal through and to incentivize them to include Carrington. You can take both off and the money still works.

**WAS**
Receives: Trae, 2026 SRP BOS (from ATL), 2030 SRP PHI (from DAL)
Sends: McCollum, Kispert, Carrington
Logic: Facilitating purely for the 2 SRPs.

With Carrington and Hardy, it’s an 8 player trade which is big. You can remove both of them and get it to 6 players which is much simpler and the money still works. I felt like the inclusion of Hardy helps reduce the feel of how much ATL is sending out and it’s not like he adds a lot of value here, so let’s get him off of the books.

[michaeltex]

I love seeing all these ideas for how to re-shape the team. I have no feel for how all the salaries work, so I look to others who are competent cap experts to know if things work financially.

One, maybe nit picky, issue is seeing trades where DAL is getting back more players than we send out. We have a full 15 contacts and one or two, 2-way players many would like to sign to regular contracts. So far, there hasn't been much in the way of creating spots farther down the roster, but that needs to be addressed if we're bringing back more players, doesn't it? AFAIK, you can't exceed 15 at any time, so you can't create spaces after the trade is done, can you?

If incoming salaries lower the overall team cap hit, can you just release somebody?

Regarding AD returns, I'm fine with getting back somebody like KP who turns into air after the season. If I remember correctly, last summer's FA market was subdued in part due to limited cap/apron space among many (most?) teams. If the 2026 summer is similar, having cap space and other things like the MLE could help with re-building the team without having to solely rely on spinning the draft roulette wheel.

[Smitty]

I love seeing all these ideas for how to re-shape the team. I have no feel for how all the salaries work, so I look to others who are competent cap experts to know if things work financially.

One, maybe nit picky, issue is seeing trades where DAL is getting back more players than we send out. We have a full 15 contacts and one or two, 2-way players many would like to sign to regular contracts. So far, there hasn't been much in the way of creating spots farther down the roster, but that needs to be addressed if we're bringing back more players, doesn't it? AFAIK, you can't exceed 15 at any time, so you can't create spaces after the trade is done, can you?

If incoming salaries lower the overall team cap hit, can you just release somebody?

Regarding AD returns, I'm fine with getting back somebody like KP who turns into air after the season. If I remember correctly, last summer's FA market was subdued in part due to limited cap/apron space among many (most?) teams. If the 2026 summer is similar, having cap space and other things like the MLE could help with re-building the team without having to solely rely on spinning the draft roulette wheel.

I'm no "cap expert" but I know the Mavs won't have actual CAP SPACE any time soon. It's an Apron world now. The Tax line, Apron 1 line, and Apron 2 are the ones that people will need to focus on, each coming with their own set of restrictions and penalties. The Mavs will be limited to minimum contracts, trades and using exceptions, when available, to restructure the roster. As for releasing someone. The Mavs can waive a player. The money is guaranteed already. Usually, it happens with a player like Exum, who's on the last year of his deal. It doesn't create any "financial space" to use elsewhere though, and that's why people create fantasy trades to send out more money, getting breathing room below the Apron.

[Smitty]

https://www.hoopshype.com/story/sports/n...049739007/

On Discord, Tyler gave a summary of the article:
Long story short on Mavs stuff, Atlanta is reluctant to trade Risacher while Dallas does like him. The Pelicans pick is off limits, but Atlanta has lots of other picks to offer.

And this last note is interesting:
Another note worth mentioning amid trade talks is that Hawks Senior Vice President of Basketball Operations Bryson Graham is close with Davis, and both were part of the Pelicans during the former No. 1 overall pick’s seven-year tenure with the franchise.

[mvossman]

I'm no "cap expert" but I know the Mavs won't have actual CAP SPACE any time soon. It's an Apron world now. The Tax line, Apron 1 line, and Apron 2 are the ones that people will need to focus on, each coming with their own set of restrictions and penalties. The Mavs will be limited to minimum contracts, trades and using exceptions, when available, to restructure the roster. As for releasing someone. The Mavs can waive a player. The money is guaranteed already. Usually, it happens with a player like Exum, who's on the last year of his deal. It doesn't create any "financial space" to use elsewhere though, and that's why people create fantasy trades to send out more money, getting breathing room below the Apron.

Yeah, no chance for cap room, but there is a legit chance for the full MLE depending on how much cap we shed.  That can have significant value.  We got Naji with it last offseason.

[mvossman]

https://www.hoopshype.com/story/sports/n...049739007/

On Discord, Tyler gave a summary of the article:
Long story short on Mavs stuff, Atlanta is reluctant to trade Risacher while Dallas does like him. The Pelicans pick is off limits, but Atlanta has lots of other picks to offer.

And this last note is interesting:
Another note worth mentioning amid trade talks is that Hawks Senior Vice President of Basketball Operations Bryson Graham is close with Davis, and both were part of the Pelicans during the former No. 1 overall pick’s seven-year tenure with the franchise.

Risacher does have some risk due to his contract and he may be overvalued due to the stigma of #1 overall pick.  I would be fine with Newell instead and another first.

[loki]

Here is my stab at a 3-way with Atl/Was/Dal. I did my best to try and not to make this too one sided for any 1 team.

**Atl**
Receives: AD, Naji, Hardy, 2028 FRP OKC (from DAL)
Sends: Trae, Risacher, 2026 FRP NOP, 2027 FRP MIL, 2026 SRP BOS
Logic: Get AD and Naji who can be key parts in a playoff run, “lightning in a bottle” Hardy off the bench (who they can convince themselves still has upside), and gets Trae out like he wants. The net cost is Riscaher, 1 FRP, 1 SRP, and the swap of the 2028 OCK FRO for the 2027 MIL FRP. You can remove Hardy and the money still works.

**Dal**
Receives: Risacher, McCullom, Kispert, Bub, 2026 FRP NOP (from ATL), 2027 FRP MIL (From ATL)
Sends: AD, Naji, Hardy, 2028 FRP OKC, 2030 SRP PHI
Logic: Speeds up the rebuild (and the tank) with Risacher, 1 additional FRP this year, and 1 next year (at the expense of 1 future FRP and 1 future SRP). The outgoing OKC FRP is essentially a swap for the more favorable 2027 MIL FRP. I really wanted one more pick over the next two years and I think I like the 2027 MIL pick more than the 2026 SAS pick, but either would do. And this still leaves Dallas with their own 2028 FRP. I included the SRP outgoing to Was to help get the deal through and to incentivize them to include Carrington. You can take both off and the money still works.

**WAS**
Receives: Trae, 2026 SRP BOS (from ATL), 2030 SRP PHI (from DAL)
Sends: McCollum, Kispert, Carrington
Logic: Facilitating purely for the 2 SRPs.

With Carrington and Hardy, it’s an 8 player trade which is big. You can remove both of them and get it to 6 players which is much simpler and the money still works. I felt like the inclusion of Hardy helps reduce the feel of how much ATL is sending out and it’s not like he adds a lot of value here, so let’s get him off of the books.

My two cents: it's closer in value for Atlanta with the NOP pick removed. I don't see that pick moving unless it's protected. The Mavs also can't trade the 28 OKC FRP swap due to the Stepien Rule with their 27 and 29 picks already gone.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Risacher does have some risk due to his contract and he may be overvalued due to the stigma of #1 overall pick.  I would be fine with Newell instead and another first.

Can Newell play center or is he more of a 4 only?

[soog]

My two cents: it's closer in value for Atlanta with the NOP pick removed. I don't see that pick moving unless it's protected. The Mavs also can't trade the 28 OKC FRP swap due to the Stepien Rule with their 27 and 29 picks already gone.

Even though they still retain their own 2028 pick? I thought that rule only applies to the teams own picks. It may be wrong, but I thought Spotrac accounts for that rule and it approves the trade.

[Jakeospikez]

You could probably get the best of both worlds for AD's value if Atl is willing to trade the NOP pick top 3? protected. They still have their chance at the 3 potential superstar players and also trade within this season for a playoff run this year in a weaker east. I think a lot of draft picks will be way less valuable once the lotto is done and they don't hit top 3 for offseason trades. I would do a trade based on that and have the Mavs get potentially 2 mid lottery picks next draft. Not sure what would happen if the pick landed top 3 though.

[loki]

Even though they still retain their own 2028 pick? I thought that rule only applies to the teams own picks. It may be wrong, but I thought Spotrac accounts for that rule and it approves the trade.

My understanding is you have to have one pick even if it's not originally your own. I'm not sure why Spotrac allows the worst of OKC/DAL 28 FRP to be traded outright. Maybe it's relying on the user to send another pick back in that year? Or maybe it sees that Dallas has a 27 FRP and doesn't recognize it is owed to Charlotte with top 2 protection? (Edit: And as Dan points out below, the 27 MIL FRP from Atlanta doesn't quite count here either) Now I remember that Dallas does own the 29 LAL FRP, so that side of it isn't the issue.

I suppose you could trade another swap with Atlanta (worst of 28 OKC/DAL/ATL), but the Atlanta pick has all kinds of convoluted swaps on it to begin with it. I'm not sure there's much value there as OKC is likely to be a worse pick than the Atlanta pick anyway. Your post mentioned something about swapping the 28 OKC/DAL FRP for a 27 MIL FRP, which I don't think can happen as they are in different drafts. I'm guessing you just meant trading one for the other, not technically a "swap".

This stuff is all very confusing though so I could be off the mark.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Even though they still retain their own 2028 pick? I thought that rule only applies to the teams own picks. It may be wrong, but I thought Spotrac accounts for that rule and it approves the trade.

What matters is whether you have a future first round pick in a particular year.  It doesn't have to be your own.  

2027:  Dallas doesn't have a pick
2028:  Dallas has a swap with OKC (so it has a pick)
2029:  Dallas has LA's pick and a swap with Houston (so it has two picks)
2030:  Dallas has a swap with SA (so it has a pick)

So, if you ship out the 2028 pick, you have to get one back or at least make another swap with the existing 2028 (which is what I've been advocating).  Alternatively, if you don't end up with a pick in 2028, you have to end up with one in 2027 from somewhere.  It would have to be a guaranteed pick and not contingent on something conveying or not.  Note that Atlanta's 2027 (from NO or MIL) is top four protected.  If it falls in the top four it doesn't convey and therefore can't be counted as a way to fulfill the rule.