Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

I don't think there's an offer out there for AD right now that includes both a nice young player and a 1st rd pick and expiring salaries. I think if such an offer were available, the Mavs would take it instantly.

Atlanta would need to move off Trae somehow to even make that offer.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Marc Stein released a new substack an hour ago.  I do not have a subscription to it and only posting what I'm seeing on Reddit. 


[Marc Stein]"currently no real traction in Anthony Davis trade talks"... "Atlanta’s willingness to take on Davis’ contract may hinge on whether it can move Trae Young in a separate deal...."Atlanta isn’t willing to include 2024 No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher in an in-season trade for Davis."

Atlanta does not believe surrendering Zaccharie Risacher or the Pelicans pick would be worth it in an AD trade.

I do subscribe.  You have the bulk of it.  Johnson and the NO/MIL pick are untouchable.  He did say Risacher is gettable in “the right deal”.  And, as you indicate, there is some talk about Atlanta needing to find a deal for Trae before taking on Davis.  Note that it doesn’t say Trae goes to Dallas.  

The last thing he talks about is the agent having a direct line into all of the top people in the FO (including the owner), which means AD won’t be shipped out to Siberia in any deal.  Stein’s sense is this may have to wait until summer (May have to ) much like the Phoenix efforts to trade KD did at the TDL last year.

[mvossman]

Marc Stein released a new substack an hour ago.  I do not have a subscription to it and only posting what I'm seeing on Reddit. 


[Marc Stein]"currently no real traction in Anthony Davis trade talks"... "Atlanta’s willingness to take on Davis’ contract may hinge on whether it can move Trae Young in a separate deal...."Atlanta isn’t willing to include 2024 No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher in an in-season trade for Davis."

Atlanta does not believe surrendering Zaccharie Risacher or the Pelicans pick would be worth it in an AD trade.

Risacher is not a deal breaker for me (not that fond of his contract).  I could live with Newell instead and two quality firsts.

[mvossman]

I do subscribe.  You have the bulk of it.  Johnson and the NO/MIL pick are untouchable.  He did say Risacher is gettable in “the right deal”.  And, as you indicate, there is some talk about Atlanta needing to find a deal for Trae before taking on Davis.  Note that it doesn’t say Trae goes to Dallas.  

The last thing he talks about is the agent having a direct line into all of the top people in the FO (including the owner), which means AD won’t be shipped out to Siberia in any deal.  Stein’s sense is this may have to wait until summer (May have to ) much like the Phoenix efforts to trade KD did at the TDL last year.

Seems like waiting until summer would be a wasted opportunity for Atlanta with a wide open East this season.

[KillerLeft]

Seems like waiting until summer would be a wasted opportunity for Atlanta with a wide open East this season.

Yeah, I don't buy it either. 

I mean, I can envision the Mavs deciding to wait if they don't get offers they like, but there's no way Davis/Paul want to wait. They want to start negotiating some kind of extension the second the summer starts. And, as you say, the Hawks think they can be good NOW, this season, and have been pretty good (when Trae Young is injured - not so much when he has played).

I think most of the important people involved are probably pretty motivated to get this done. 

I don't think they're getting the New Orleans pick, if I'm honest, but I'd damn sure be acting like I walk away without it, at this point.

[Dirknows]

Yeah, I don't buy it either. 

I mean, I can envision the Mavs deciding to wait if they don't get offers they like, but there's no way Davis/Paul want to wait. They want to start negotiating some kind of extension the second the summer starts. And, as you say, the Hawks think they can be good NOW, this season, and have been pretty good (when Trae Young is injured - not so much when he has played).

I think most of the important people involved are probably pretty motivated to get this done. 

I don't think they're getting the New Orleans pick, if I'm honest, but I'd damn sure be acting like I walk away without it, at this point.

Yeah, we want the NOP pick obviously but it's not happening. I didn't hate the idea some people have thrown out a 3 way with SAC where we end up with Lavine, CLE26 pick and then a SAC 1st rounder. I mean I don't know, were never gonna get the value we want out of AD, so think it's best to try and just get out of his contract.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Pelicans have lost 7 in a row btw and are current 2nd in the tankathon rankings. I think getting that pick isn't even a pipe dream at this point.

[omahen]

A crazy trade idea if Rich Paul wants to redirect and merge his best clients in an attempt to win the East. Trade works in the spotrac trade machine and Atlanta stays below the tax.

Miami goes crazy and thinks they can get Trae to play some defense in their team culture. Long-term pair him with Bam. Lets say Trae vs Herro and Wiggins is same value, so no picks included.
Atlanta goes all in on LeBron, Davis and Johnson as a big three with some very solid role players. LeBron resigns for one more season for less money to keep Atlanta out of tax. That team could in theory work very well. Atlanta would send some additional draft compensation to Dallas.
Lakers trade best player compared to what they receive, but Luka-LeBron-Reaves will never fit together and they are most likely than not moving on from LeBron after this season anyway. KP and Russell are dead weights, but Wiggins is a much better fit next to Luka and Reaves that could make their starting line-up work. While I think Lakers would actually get better, they would lose their flexibility (cap space) for the summer. I would like to think that they should receive some draft compensation from Atlanta for trading best player, but I would be also ok with none. Trade also works with Hardy instead of Russell. Alternatively Russell could also go to Atlanta (instead of Exum), if they are willing to pay the tax.
Dallas: trades AD for some interesting long term pieces and some expiring salary. Receives draft compensation from Atlanta. Herro will be expiring next season and Mavs could use his salary in a trade, if they don't like the fit.

Atl: receives LeBron, Davis, Exum for Trae, KP, Kennard and Risacher
Mia: receives Trae Young, Kennard for Wiggins and Herro
Lakers: receives Wiggins, KP, Russell for LeBron
Dallas: receives Herro, Risacher, Vincent for AD, Exum and Russell

[omahen]

Another idea in a similar mode to previous one. Ideas coming from which team would actually want/need Trae Young.

Portland replaces Miami and trades a bunch of wings for Trae. Mavs receive Risacher and Scoot Henderson as interesting young players. Lakers receive a bunch of athletic wings they desperately need. They lose their cap space flexibility for next season, but could operate over the cap and use Grants contract in a trade for a better fit.

Portland: receive Trae, Hardy and expiring salary in Kennard, Maxi and Exum for Grant, Henderson, Williams, Thybulle and Murray
Atlanta: receive LeBron, AD and Bronny for Trae, KP, Kennard and Risacher
Lakers: receive Grant, Williams, Thybulle, Murray for LeBron, Bronny and Maxi
Mavs: receive KP, Henderson and Risacher for AD, Hardy and Exum.

[FireNicoHarrison]

I prefer keep street clothes than trade for that package honestly...

[FireNicoHarrison]

And help Fakers or Heat. Fuck them.

[Chicagojk]

I have been thinking an AD trade may wait, but we will see.  A two/three week of good play would help his market imo.   Although, hearing that Rich Paul has a liking or ATL for AD will surely help.  They be one of the few teams who may be open to an AD extension at this time.    If all are true, the liklihood a trade is more likely if a powerful agent has a favorite landing spot.  Still though, the Mavs are not in the business of giving AD what he wants.  They need the best offer.  Sure they want to work with AD, but the Mavs are under no pressure to make a less than ideal trade.

Also concerning Paul may have a direct line into Dumont.   I know it is hard to stop that but Dumont may be an easy mark.  If true, I am sure Paul knows this.    I just fear Paul sweet talking to Dumont for months to get what he wants in the end.

[FireNicoHarrison]

AD (and Rich Paul) can't throw away a season in a semi tanking team.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6936274...rae-young/


NBA TDL's biggest questions.

[KillerLeft]

Also concerning Paul may have a direct line into Dumont.

It kind of seems like that's just the way it goes if you're going to have Klutch clients on your roster, and AD is one of their biggest clients. 

The Cuban/Nelson Mavs steered clear of Klutch for a long, long time. Harrison jumped right into bed with them, so that's where the team lives, for the time being. Probably unavoidable, because it seems like the agency is here to stay long after LeBron retires. I don't particularly like how they do business, at least what's reported publicly, but the players sure seem to like them, so it's probably a good idea to maintain a relationship with them if you run an NBA team.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Although, hearing that Rich Paul has a liking or ATL for AD will surely help.  They be one of the few teams who may be open to an AD extension at this time.    If all are true, the liklihood a trade is more likely if a powerful agent has a favorite landing spot.  Still though, the Mavs are not in the business of giving AD what he wants.  They need the best offer.  Sure they want to work with AD, but the Mavs are under no pressure to make a less than ideal trade.
 

What is becoming clear to me is we have to figure out the Trae part of this before we can know what the rest of this looks like.  One thing I've learned about Stein in recent years is when things happen, he can often (and will often) trace the outcome back to things he's said and/or written.  "As I've said for several weeks now"....fill in the blank.  

He's said Atlanta can't afford expiring deals for AD.  Therefore Trae has to go (not to Dallas, but he has to go somewhere in the deal with Dallas getting stuff back from the third team).

He's said Risacher isn't available (except in the 'right' scenario).  To me, this argues the point above has to be satisfied AND Atlanta considers Risacher as a premium element to any trade (so you aren't getting the NO pick in 2026).  Stein also alludes that Atlanta would prefer to deal Risacher in the off-season.  I don't think he's that important to their playoff hopes, so this may be an appeal for someone like Marshall to provide a replacement for the role ZR plays in the Hawk's lineup.

Stein has said Jalen Johnson and the NO pick in 2026 are off limits.  We should probably take him at his word on this.

He has said that Gafford has the most robust trade market of any Mav.

He has also said Rich Paul has a direct line to Dumont.  It doesn't mean Paul gets to design the deal, but he will have influence.  Paul was fairly clearly the architect last year in working with Chicago to move on from Lonzo and LaVine.  His client Brandon Ingram also moved in a 2025 TDL deal as did De'Aron Fox.  If you want to look at other Paul clients who might fit here, there is Dejounte Murray, Zach LaVine, Darius Garland (too small), Moses Moody (and Draymond), Collin Sexton and Scoot Henderson (and Grant).  He's also the agent for Lively who we will have to work with soon on an extension.

I say all of that to say that we should probably stop dreaming of the 2026 NO pick and should start looking for homes for Trae Young and how those homes might have someone Dallas wants.  If that player happens to also be a Klutch client, then all the better in terms of being predictive of what is likely to happen.  Someone already identified Sacramento and LaVine.  I personally feel like Murray is the better fit here with Kyrie (and helps the tank).  If proximity to an extension matters (and it probably does), then don't count our Scoot Henderson.  It also wouldn't shock me to see Moody involved in something that sends Gafford to GSW.  I personally think Dallas will be more about players than picks as they will want to turn things around fairly quickly, but that is a personal opinion and not something I've gotten from Stein.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Another idea in a similar mode to previous one. Ideas coming from which team would actually want/need Trae Young.

Portland replaces Miami and trades a bunch of wings for Trae. Mavs receive Risacher and Scoot Henderson as interesting young players. Lakers receive a bunch of athletic wings they desperately need. They lose their cap space flexibility for next season, but could operate over the cap and use Grants contract in a trade for a better fit.

Portland: receive Trae, Hardy and expiring salary in Kennard, Maxi and Exum for Grant, Henderson, Williams, Thybulle and Murray
Atlanta: receive LeBron, AD and Bronny for Trae, KP, Kennard and Risacher
Lakers: receive Grant, Williams, Thybulle, Murray for LeBron, Bronny and Maxi
Mavs: receive KP, Henderson and Risacher for AD, Hardy and Exum.

This touches a lot of Rich Paul clients.  I like involving Portland to get Scoot, but I'm not sure Trae to Portland makes sense with Lillard, and Jrue still there after Scoot is traded.  I wonder if Trae to Sac and LaVine to Portland makes more sense.  I'm not going to get into all the Lebron stuff.  Maybe something like:

SAC:  Young for LaVine
DAL:  Grant, Risacher and Scoot for Davis and Marshall
POR:  LaVine for Grant and Henderson
ATL:  AD and Marshall for Young, Risacher and Scoot

I left Portland $3.2mm over the tax and I'm unbalanced for Dallas and Portland, so something else needs to happen.  Just trying to move around the most possible Rich Paul people in a way that makes sense for Trae's final destination.

[Dirknows]

What is becoming clear to me is we have to figure out the Trae part of this before we can know what the rest of this looks like.  One thing I've learned about Stein in recent years is when things happen, he can often (and will often) trace the outcome back to things he's said and/or written.  "As I've said for several weeks now"....fill in the blank.  

He's said Atlanta can't afford expiring deals for AD.  Therefore Trae has to go (not to Dallas, but he has to go somewhere in the deal with Dallas getting stuff back from the third team).

He's said Risacher isn't available (except in the 'right' scenario).  To me, this argues the point above has to be satisfied AND Atlanta considers Risacher as a premium element to any trade (so you aren't getting the NO pick in 2026).  Stein also alludes that Atlanta would prefer to deal Risacher in the off-season.  I don't think he's that important to their playoff hopes, so this may be an appeal for someone like Marshall to provide a replacement for the role ZR plays in the Hawk's lineup.

Stein has said Jalen Johnson and the NO pick in 2026 are off limits.  We should probably take him at his word on this.

He has said that Gafford has the most robust trade market of any Mav.

He has also said Rich Paul has a direct line to Dumont.  It doesn't mean Paul gets to design the deal, but he will have influence.  Paul was fairly clearly the architect last year in working with Chicago to move on from Lonzo and LaVine.  His client Brandon Ingram also moved in a 2025 TDL deal as did De'Aron Fox.  If you want to look at other Paul clients who might fit here, there is Dejounte Murray, Zach LaVine, Darius Garland (too small), Moses Moody (and Draymond), Collin Sexton and Scoot Henderson (and Grant).  He's also the agent for Lively who we will have to work with soon on an extension.

I say all of that to say that we should probably stop dreaming of the 2026 NO pick and should start looking for homes for Trae Young and how those homes might have someone Dallas wants.  If that player happens to also be a Klutch client, then all the better in terms of being predictive of what is likely to happen.  Someone already identified Sacramento and LaVine.  I personally feel like Murray is the better fit here with Kyrie (and helps the tank).  If proximity to an extension matters (and it probably does), then don't count our Scoot Henderson.  It also wouldn't shock me to see Moody involved in something that sends Gafford to GSW.  I personally think Dallas will be more about players than picks as they will want to turn things around fairly quickly, but that is a personal opinion and not something I've gotten from Stein.

Murray is a better fit, but how do we recoup young assets or picks beyond getting Murray? New Orleans already dealt their pick this year and is controlled by Atlanta next year. Moody is a decent get for Gafford. Naji is another nice potential trade piece. An AD deal may be hard to get other teams involved since we don’t want Trae, ideally we get a deal done by the deadline but I’m skeptical. But last week I was sure something would get done. Next month of trade rumors should be fun.

[mvossman]

What is becoming clear to me is we have to figure out the Trae part of this before we can know what the rest of this looks like.  One thing I've learned about Stein in recent years is when things happen, he can often (and will often) trace the outcome back to things he's said and/or written.  "As I've said for several weeks now"....fill in the blank.  

He's said Atlanta can't afford expiring deals for AD.  Therefore Trae has to go (not to Dallas, but he has to go somewhere in the deal with Dallas getting stuff back from the third team).

He's said Risacher isn't available (except in the 'right' scenario).  To me, this argues the point above has to be satisfied AND Atlanta considers Risacher as a premium element to any trade (so you aren't getting the NO pick in 2026).  Stein also alludes that Atlanta would prefer to deal Risacher in the off-season.  I don't think he's that important to their playoff hopes, so this may be an appeal for someone like Marshall to provide a replacement for the role ZR plays in the Hawk's lineup.

Stein has said Jalen Johnson and the NO pick in 2026 are off limits.  We should probably take him at his word on this.

He has said that Gafford has the most robust trade market of any Mav.

He has also said Rich Paul has a direct line to Dumont.  It doesn't mean Paul gets to design the deal, but he will have influence.  Paul was fairly clearly the architect last year in working with Chicago to move on from Lonzo and LaVine.  His client Brandon Ingram also moved in a 2025 TDL deal as did De'Aron Fox.  If you want to look at other Paul clients who might fit here, there is Dejounte Murray, Zach LaVine, Darius Garland (too small), Moses Moody (and Draymond), Collin Sexton and Scoot Henderson (and Grant).  He's also the agent for Lively who we will have to work with soon on an extension.

I say all of that to say that we should probably stop dreaming of the 2026 NO pick and should start looking for homes for Trae Young and how those homes might have someone Dallas wants.  If that player happens to also be a Klutch client, then all the better in terms of being predictive of what is likely to happen.  Someone already identified Sacramento and LaVine.  I personally feel like Murray is the better fit here with Kyrie (and helps the tank).  If proximity to an extension matters (and it probably does), then don't count our Scoot Henderson.  It also wouldn't shock me to see Moody involved in something that sends Gafford to GSW.  I personally think Dallas will be more about players than picks as they will want to turn things around fairly quickly, but that is a personal opinion and not something I've gotten from Stein.

I like Murray better than Lavine, but the extra year scares me.  

I like Moody, but he seems injury prone.

Garland is small, but I would love him on this team.  Don't see how that could happen though.

[omahen]

This touches a lot of Rich Paul clients.  I like involving Portland to get Scoot, but I'm not sure Trae to Portland makes sense with Lillard, and Jrue still there after Scoot is traded.  I wonder if Trae to Sac and LaVine to Portland makes more sense.  I'm not going to get into all the Lebron stuff.  Maybe something like:

SAC:  Young for LaVine
DAL:  Grant, Risacher and Scoot for Davis and Marshall
POR:  LaVine for Grant and Henderson
ATL:  AD and Marshall for Young, Risacher and Scoot

I left Portland $3.2mm over the tax and I'm unbalanced for Dallas and Portland, so something else needs to happen.  Just trying to move around the most possible Rich Paul people in a way that makes sense for Trae's final destination.

Just playing around with LeBron trades, because I would like him to get traded  I don't think it will happen, though  

Who do you have as teams looking for a guy like Young? I am not taking into account tanking teams like BKN, WAS and Utah as I don't think Young fits their timelines. 
- I agree Sacramento has been looking for a PG for some time (after trading away two all star PGs they drafted...). But, I think they should hit a rebuild button instead of trying to compete for a play-in spot with Young. I don't see them trading Murray in any scenario. They overpaid him, but he is their only decent long term building block. That team is so trash, they should just do a firesale and start over properly. And fire whoever thought those players together will bring wins and playoff appearances.
- Minnesota needs a PG, but doesn't have a lot of assets. Their main contract match would likely be Gobert, so you need a team that needs an aging center on a three year deal. I could see Boston with Simons or GSW with Kuminga as main salaries. Gobert is probably too old to interest Indy. It would take Gobert, Conley and Dillingham to match Youngs salary
- I forgot Portland has Lilllard, so I agree they will not go for a PG, although it is their current biggest need. 
- if Young price really is LaVine level low, than I would definitely have Milwaukee as very interested. But, I would think his value is higher and then Milwaukee doesn't have much to offer
- Miami? They have Herro and Powell, who are both more shooting guards than PGs. Mitchel has been decent, but he is not that great. Good to have next to weaker SG defenders though. Still, Miami needs to do something at some point to get out of the mediocrity zone. 
- Houston needs a PG with FVV out, but I don't think they will go for something this drastic. A low volume shooting PG that can organize an attack is probably better for them
- Is Phoenix owner ready to get crazy again? I don't have any other team as candidate