Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[Winter]

I don't think Risacher is the shooter he should be, but he may develop that at some point.

[mvossman]

I don't think Risacher is the shooter he should be, but he may develop that at some point.

He had a good rookie season, but I wonder if his bad start this season was due to missing his PG for a big chunk of it?  Either way, I think he is definitely worth a gamble.

[Winter]

He had a good rookie season, but I wonder if his bad start this season was due to missing his PG for a big chunk of it?  Either way, I think he is definitely worth a gamble.

I would do the deal as well. His bad start this season is probably the grease that makes such a trade happen. I think the upside risk is worth it.

[F Gump]

I think AD has a good chance of landing in ATL.

I wouldn't expect the Mavs to move AD unless the return includes a player who has a high likelihood of being a top talent. So far it's all just scraps and junk and randos that are being mentioned. But of course. No one offers great value up front.

I expect that if ATL truly wants him (and I am guessing they want him badly) they will include the NO pick (and without junking it up with conditions). "No way -- except ...." (negotiations).

I think ATL has way more urgency than DAL. (Right now they have KP's expiring, they have Trae's perhaps-expiring, and they probably don't want to have to deal with extensions for either.) ATL really needs AD badly. OTOH the Mavs don't have an expert negotiator yet and they are better off to wait. But if they get overwhelmed with value being offered? What if the offer included NO pick, plus another #1 unprotected, plus Risacher + filler? At some point you can't say no. Can you?

I think AD's contract and the opportunity to extend -- ie, a chance to have him for more than a year or two -- would be seen as a plus, not a minus, on a team that sees him as the missing piece to advance to the next level. They want to buy an era of contending, not a year.

I believe the Mavs really don't value Trae. But could they stomach him for a while? "No way -- except ...." (negotiations). (And, on a different level, is Trae undesirable at 50M salary, but could he become valued at 20-30M?)

I think Risacher has a high likelihood of being junk (and at a VERY bloated salary, in relation to what he brings). Yes he could be a "fan-pleasing name" -- hey look, it's a recent #1 pick, they got someone great for AD!!!!!! - that serves as part of the trade-match but imo he's not looking like he can be any real value. "No way -- except ...." (negotiations).

I think much of what we are hearing is posturing. ATL won't get AD for cheap. So they will have to walk away (except, no way they want to REALLY walk away). "No way -- except ...." (negotiations).

The math in the deal is tricky because ATL has to match a big salary, but the Mavs can't take back extra bodies (unless they are willing to lose Nembhard). So ATL is likely to have to take some extras (Hardy, Powell, Martin). But then how can ATL match an ever-growing number? "No way -- except ...." (negotiations).

[mvossman]

I think AD has a good chance of landing in ATL.

I wouldn't expect the Mavs to move AD unless the return includes a player who has a high likelihood of being a top talent. So far it's all just scraps and junk and randos that are being mentioned. But of course. No one offers great value up front.

I expect that if ATL truly wants him (and I am guessing they want him badly) they will include the NO pick (and without junking it up with conditions). "No way -- except ...." (negotiations).

I think ATL has way more urgency than DAL. (Right now they have KP's expiring, they have Trae's perhaps-expiring, and they probably don't want to have to deal with extensions for either.) ATL really needs AD badly. OTOH the Mavs don't have an expert negotiator yet and they are better off to wait. But if they get overwhelmed with value being offered? What if the offer included NO pick, plus another #1 unprotected, plus Risacher + filler? At some point you can't say no. Can you?

I think AD's contract and the opportunity to extend -- ie, a chance to have him for more than a year or two -- would be seen as a plus, not a minus, on a team that sees him as the missing piece to advance to the next level. They want to buy an era of contending, not a year.

I believe the Mavs really don't value Trae. But could they stomach him for a while? "No way -- except ...." (negotiations). (And, on a different level, is Trae undesirable at 50M salary, but could he become valued at 20-30M?)

I think Risacher has a high likelihood of being junk (and at a VERY bloated salary, in relation to what he brings). Yes he could be a "fan-pleasing name" -- hey look, it's a recent #1 pick, they got someone great for AD!!!!!! - that serves as part of the trade-match but imo he's not looking like he can be any real value. "No way -- except ...." (negotiations).

I think much of what we are hearing is posturing. ATL won't get AD for cheap. So they will have to walk away (except, no way they want to REALLY  walk away). "No way -- except ...." (negotiations).

The math in the deal is tricky because ATL has to match a big salary, but the Mavs can't take back extra bodies (unless they are willing to lose Nembhard). So ATL is likely to have to take some extras (Hardy, Powell, Martin). But then how can ATL match an ever-growing number? "No way -- except ...." (negotiations).

Saying Risacher has a high likelihood of being junk seems overly harsh.  I did forget how much that contract is due to being 1st pick.

I think you are overvaluing AD current market and potential future market, and I think you are expecting way too much from "negotiations".

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

I think everything he posted outside of the first sentence is likely to be wrong.

[Jakeospikez]

east is wide open this year with Tatum/Haliburton out. even if Tatum comes back for the playoffs he likely won't be in playoff shape or on a minutes restriction or something.
some east team gotta cave to put them over the top with an AD trade to make a run. some of these deals will be ok if they come with some quality picks and pick swaps.

[loki]

I'm not a huge fan of Risacher (would rather have Buzelis), but I think he's about the caliber of young player the Mavs could expect in an AD trade. Any better and he would be off limits. If he's part of the deal I do think it means they need to get at least one valuable 1st as well, not just a couple crappy late 1sts.

[Mavs2021]

I think everything he posted outside of the first sentence is likely to be wrong.

Pretty much.

Here is a good exercise for you all. Ask yourself what you are willing to trade for Embiid as a Mavericks fan right now. Is it Copper Flagg? Is it Lively + Washington + Marshall + Christie + multiple unprotected first round picks?

[mvossman]

I'm not a huge fan of Risacher (would rather have Buzelis), but I think he's about the caliber of young player the Mavs could expect in an AD trade. Any better and he would be off limits. If he's part of the deal I do think it means they need to get at least one valuable 1st as well, not just a couple crappy late 1sts.

The 27 pick from Atlanta is actually the worst of the NOP and MIL first round picks, top 4 protected.  That pick has a decent chance of being in the lottery while likely not triggering the protection (they would both have to be top 4).  That seems about right for me.  I don't think there is any chance they give up the NOP 26 unprotected pick.

[windjc]

Not impressed by many of the comments on here. A team will trade as much for AD as they must to get him if they want him enough. It only takes ONE team to want him. Demand defines the market.

In general, what I see from a lot of Mav's fans, is a built-in disdain for AD because he is what replaced Luka. A fan with such an emotional trigger isn't qualified to determine ADs worth (they wouldn't be anyway, but whatever).

If a team thinks AD is the final piece, they will trade accordingly.

On the flipside, DRAFT PICKS ARE RISKY.

Two drafts ago, Atlanta took Risacher with the same pick the Mavs took Flagg a year later. But many on here say Risacher is worth nothing. Well, if the #1 draft pick from 18 months ago is already worth nothing, what is a lottery pick worth next year? Yeah, exactly. Maybe less than nothing.

Now, I like high draft picks, but this garbage talk about AD not worth draft picks is dumb. AD is a known quantity that was averaging 30/13 over his last 3 games and is borderline all-defensive team when healthy.

[F Gump]

Saying Risacher has a high likelihood of being junk seems overly harsh.  I did forget how much that contract is due to being 1st pick.

I think you are overvaluing AD current market and potential future market, and I think you are expecting way too much from "negotiations".

Yeah, I think you're way off.  To speak to your points:

1  As for Risacher, if you think he will turn out to be special, you're just basing it on air, because his play has certainly not shown anything. Sure, anything is possible. But he has been meh so far on both ends of the floor, in every way. (I'm thinking he looks like Fournier as his upside, with that looking like a major stretch to get there.) And his contract (13M, 14M, 18M) is not that desirable for a spare part.

2 Genuine proven stars like AD (and he is unquestionably at that "proven star" level) don't get traded for scraps (unless the GM is an idiot). They just don't. Top talent is hard to get, so teams will stretch their budget (and overlook the dings) in order to get those guys, rather than muddle along in mediocrity.

Whether ATL is at that crossroads, yes that's not something we can say either way for sure. But if they are, they are going to be as aggressive as it takes. And they are likely to offer the lowest package of player value, trying to keep their existing talent to max their opportunity to get way better right now, and utilize their future picks as the lure to entice a deal.

3 Re negotiations, I have no expectations. You misread what I said. My expectations are that we have no idea what each side would be willing to offer -- but ("negotiations") EVERYTHING we hear is nothing more than negotiating for a better price (by whispering "info" to some talking head or another), or trying to alter expectations.

You also obviously failed to recognize that the "negotiations" I spoke of (and that are always in play) work BOTH ways. For example, the Mavs have supposedly shut the door on Trae to Dallas as part of the deal. Paying 50M for a player they don't value, and who doesn't defend, and who doesn't fit with Kyrie? It makes no sense. But ATL would LOVE (!) to move him. So "Trae can't be included" is not set in stone any more than any of the things currently on ATL's list of demands would be.

[mvossman]

Not impressed by many of the comments on here. A team will trade as much for AD as they must to get him if they want him enough. It only takes ONE team to want him. Demand defines the market.

In general, what I see from a lot of Mav's fans, is a built-in disdain for AD because he is what replaced Luka. A fan with such an emotional trigger isn't qualified to determine ADs worth (they wouldn't be anyway, but whatever).

If a team thinks AD is the final piece, they will trade accordingly.

On the flipside, DRAFT PICKS ARE RISKY.

Two drafts ago, Atlanta took Risacher with the same pick the Mavs took Flagg a year later. But many on here say Risacher is worth nothing. Well, if the #1 draft pick from 18 months ago is already worth nothing, what is a lottery pick worth next year? Yeah, exactly. Maybe less than nothing.

Now, I like high draft picks, but this garbage talk about AD not worth draft picks is dumb. AD is a known quantity that was averaging 30/13 over his last 3 games and is borderline all-defensive team when healthy.

Not impressed by this comment.

The AD draft discussion is not based on "built-in disdain".  Its based on some realities regarding AD, namely:

He is on a massive contract and teams are showing much more caution with that with this latest CBA
He will be 33 by the time playoffs start and is likely already starting his decline.
He is known as injury prone (and has been particularly so recently) which generally does not get better when approaching mid 30s.

I hope they manage to negotiate a great deal for AD, but if the best they can get is salary relief, Risacher and a quality first I would pull the trigger.  Teams don't get desperate in the offseason and I think its more likely AD lowers his value than raises it if he stays through the end of the season.

[KillerLeft]

I think the answer with Davis’s value is somewhere in the middle of what’s being discussed.

The key is being OK with not trading him. If you are willing to walk away from the table, you will find out how much the other guy is willing to pay.

I have become way less worried about this since I realized I would be OK with them keeping him into next year. If they get something good for him, great, but I’m not worried about it anymore. The only way they can really mess up, in my humble opinion, is to trade him for less than the max that’s possible.

[Winter]

The thing about Risacher is that he's being peddaled with "potential." Maybe it's not true, but I don't see these other rumored teams stepping up with players that look any better. The only player in any rumored discussion with a better-than-average track record is Coby White. I'm not seeing many players from GSW, Atlanta, or Toronto that appear to be a good fit. Perhaps there are players that will surface soon, but the player part of any AD trade looks pretty sparse.

The real unknown is what teams will be willing to do with their picks. Let's be clear here. Are we asking for two firsts? Are we asking for one very good first and a second? Are we asking for two future firsts beyond 2026?

It's possible the picks will be the sticking point in any Mavs negotiation. If I were the Mavs, I would probably make the picks the focal point simply because I don't see that many players that interest me. Or at least the rumor mill hasn't spit out any.

[mvossman]

Yeah, I think you're way off.  To speak to your points:

1  As for Risacher, if you think he will turn out to be special, you're just basing it on air, because his play has certainly not shown anything. Sure, anything is possible. But he has been meh so far on both ends of the floor, in every way. (I'm thinking he looks like Fournier as his upside, with that looking like a major stretch to get there.) And his contract (13M, 14M, 18M) is not that desirable for a spare part.

2 Genuine proven stars like AD (and he is unquestionably at that "proven star" level) don't get traded for scraps (unless the GM is an idiot). They just don't. Top talent is hard to get, so teams will stretch their budget (and overlook the dings) in order to get those guys, rather than muddle along in mediocrity.

Whether ATL is at that crossroads, yes that's not something we can say either way for sure. But if they are, they are going to be as aggressive as it takes. And they are likely to offer the lowest package of player value, trying to keep their existing talent to max their opportunity to get way better right now, and utilize their future picks as the lure to entice a deal.

3 Re negotiations, I have no expectations. You misread what I said. My expectations are that we have no idea what each side would be willing to offer -- but ("negotiations") EVERYTHING we hear is nothing more than negotiating for a better price (by whispering "info" to some talking head or another), or trying to alter expectations.

You also obviously failed to recognize that the "negotiations" I spoke of (and that are always in play) work BOTH ways. For example, the Mavs have supposedly shut the door on Trae to Dallas as part of the deal. Paying 50M for a player they don't value, and who doesn't defend, and who doesn't fit with Kyrie? It makes no sense. But ATL would LOVE (!) to move him. So "Trae can't be included" is not set in stone any more than any of the things currently on ATL's list of demands would be.

You really like to put words into my mouth when responding to my posts.  When did I even hint that I thought Risacher is going to be "special"?  I suggested a good comp would be Nesmith.  You do realize he is only 20, right?  He scored 13 points a game in his age 19 season and is considered a good defender.  For comparison, Nesmith scored 5 points a game his first two seasons while 2 years older.

I fully recognize negotiations happen both ways and we can't believe everything we here.  Obviously we all want them to get the best offer they possibly can.  I'm simply saying what my line is on whether I would pull the trigger or not.  Your line is much higher.  I don't think AD will ever get moved if they stay with your line.  I have no idea if they can even get my minimum return.

[F Gump]

When it comes to KP-Risacher-NO #1 for AD, it seems like a value match on its face. ATL is actually getting a bargain, since KP is an injured rental, R is meh, and the only value ATL offers is that singular pick. But that deal is likely a fail because of the cap ramifications for ATL and also the roster ramifications (lack of roster room) for DAL. For ATL, it makes them taxpayers, and they also end up with cap issues next season with Trae on their books alongside AD. The issue for DAL is the 2-for-1 (which closes the door on Nemby), which in trade machines looks like it could be solved by adding Hardy, but ATL couldn't (A1 limit). It could be solved for DAL by waiving Exum before the trade, then waiving KP or Powell after. But it's probably not a direction they would like. (NOTE: ATL could take Exum, making it a 2-for-2, which does not solve the Nemby issue but does help the Mavs books and also does not push ATL over A1.)

DAL can solve it for ATL by taking Trae rather than KP. IMO that's why ATL wants to move Trae rather than KP. But then the Mavs are going to want more (and rightly so) for eating Trae's 50M contract, because Trae's oncourt value in DAL is not 50M worth, and any trade value/opportunity (for the Mavs to move him along) is iffy.

[Mavs2021]

When it comes to KP-Risacher-NO #1 for AD, it seems like a value match on its face. ATL is actually getting a bargain, since KP is an injured rental, R is meh, and the only value ATL offers is that singular pick. But that deal is likely a fail because of the cap ramifications for ATL and also the roster ramifications (lack of roster room) for DAL. For ATL, it makes them taxpayers, and they also end up with cap issues next season with Trae on their books alongside AD. The issue for DAL is the 2-for-1 (which closes the door on Nemby), which in trade machines looks like it could be solved by adding Hardy, but ATL couldn't (A1 limit). It could be solved for DAL by waiving Exum before the trade, then waiving KP or Powell after. But it's probably not a direction they would like.

So they are turning down/not liking a ~40% chance at Dybantsa, Boozer or Peterson, cause they´d have to waive Exum and Powell. Sometimes I can´t with your assessments.

[Dirknows]

When it comes to KP-Risacher-NO #1 for AD, it seems like a value match on its face. ATL is actually getting a bargain, since KP is an injured rental, R is meh, and the only value ATL offers is that singular pick. But that deal is likely a fail because of the cap ramifications for ATL and also the roster ramifications (lack of roster room) for DAL. For ATL, it makes them taxpayers, and they also end up with cap issues next season with Trae on their books alongside AD. The issue for DAL is the 2-for-1 (which closes the door on Nemby), which in trade machines looks like it could be solved by adding Hardy, but ATL couldn't (A1 limit). It could be solved for DAL by waiving Exum before the trade, then waiving KP or Powell after. But it's probably not a direction they would like. (NOTE: ATL could take Exum, making it a 2-for-2, which does not solve the Nemby issue but does help the Mavs books and also does not push ATL over A1.)

DAL can solve it for ATL by taking Trae rather than KP. IMO that's why ATL wants to move Trae rather than KP. But then the Mavs are going to want more (and rightly so) for eating Trae's 50M contract, because Trae's oncourt value in DAL is not 50M worth, and any trade value/opportunity (for the Mavs to move him along) is iffy.

If the Mavs have to take Trae they simply are able to ask for more
In terms of draft compensation. If they send us Trae I would be asking for the 2026 NOP pick at minimum, and probably the 2027 pick too.

[F Gump]

1 You really like to put words into my mouth when responding to my posts.   

2 ... I'm simply saying what my line is on whether I would pull the trigger or not.  Your line is much higher.  I don't think AD will ever get moved if they stay with your line. ...

1 Did not intend to do so - I thought I was reflecting your implied meaning. My apologies.

2 Fair enough, of course. Opinions differ. While you are afraid they can't get your line, I would want them to say "no" to an offer at your level. In my view, it's way too barren of anything of high value, and I don't think they can afford to let go of AD for what I see as a platter of junk and rando and very-iffy pieces. 

KP-Risacher-NO1, for AD, is where I think they might be dancing right now. The deal I would hope to see from there, negotiated to satisfy ATL wish to include Trae is:

Trae-Risacher- NO1-another FRP (limited protection that vanishes over time, if used)
FOR
AD-Martin

ATL gets out of Trae contract, loses no real [proven/desired] talent only picks, their front line becomes VERY versatile and formidable (AD, KP, Okongwu), does NOT pay tax.
DAL gets picks, gets minor salary reduction now, retains room for Nemby, better cap future while eating the salary for Trae.