Luka Dealt to Lakers: Nico Harrison is a Basketball Terrorist

[The Jom]

I know there are lots of if's and question marks with the Mavs, but I just think people are glossing over the Lakers issues, which to me seem more likely to keep them from a title.

I don't think the Lakers have any real shot this season. Too small, not enough depth, the overlap between Luka and Lebron is too clunky. And going forward, with LA there's BOTH a question of Luka's durability and ceiling (due to an inability to withstand the rigors of 82 games plus an extended playoff time), and also Lebron's limited shelf life. And they're not going to have a lot of roster-building flexibility anytime soon - right now their contracts for next year put them over Apron 1, limiting their choices considerably.

If I am picking who has the best chance this season, I think a HEALTHY Mavs team has a much higher ceiling than LA, although until we see them play for a stretch, it's hard to be sure how high that ceiling goes. Going forward, I think the likelihood of DAL getting healthy is greater than the likelihood of LA getting better. Obviously neither team goes far with injured players and broken down players. How it plays out, we won't know until we get there.

I liked this post because it’s a smart take and I know you know a lot about where teams are financially. And I’m replying because I want to convert. (Help my unbelief!) 

But jeez, man. FanDuel has this year’s championship odds at +1800 (6th) for the Lakers and +9000 (11th) for the Mavs. And I get why you think the Lakes are limited in what maneuvers they can make next year, but after that, they only have Doncic, Reeves, and Vandy on contract. 

They’re the Lakers. Stars want to be there. I can’t see betting against em.

[nicholasthefan]

So here is my prediction... The Mavs will go all-in to try and win a championship in the next three years. Kyrie and AD will stay somewhat healthy. When either:

1. The Mavs win a championship(s)
   
2. OR It is clear that it isn't going to happen
   

The Mavs will trade AD, Kyrie and any other member of the team that is 30+ to the highest bidder to start a rebuild. 

Honestly, not a terrible position to be in. But, we were in a much better position just 1 month ago. Which is why people are pissed. And so am I.

But, keep in mind... This is what the Boston Celtics did with their big 3. It worked for them.

[FireNicoHarrison]

Bet against Lakers is stupid... Bet against Luka Doncic is even worse... Watch out guys.

[The Jom]

. . . The Mavs will trade AD, Kyrie and any other member of the team that is 30+ to the highest bidder to start a rebuild. 

. . . 

To add to this, not to criticize it . . . that’s inexplicably what they didn’t do with Luka!!! 

But now I’m beating a dead horse.

[SleepingHero]

The Los Angeles Lakers are preparing for what they anticipate to be an emotional game in Luka Dončić’s first matchup against his former team, the Dallas Mavericks, on Tuesday night in Los Angeles.

And they want to make it clear they have Dončić’s back as he continues to grapple with the fallout of the trade and his new normal.

“I think he’s going to be excited,” said Dorian Finney-Smith, who played with Dončić for almost five years in Dallas before reuniting with him in Los Angeles. “But everybody in the locker room is excited. We got his back.”

Lakers coach JJ Redick, who has said multiple times over the past three weeks that he can relate to the emotions of being traded, though not in the same context of Dončić, expects his superstar to handle the moment well.

“I think he’ll be fine,” Redick said. “Every day that he’s been with us it’s becoming a little more normal. I’ve been there. The first time you play your old team, particularly this close in time duration, it’s going to be weird. But he’ll be OK.”

Dončić finally resembled his Dallas self on Saturday in Denver, erupting for 32 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists and four steals. He picked up a technical foul for complaining about a non-call, and had several interactions with the Denver crowd and Nuggets bench that signified to himself and his teammates and coaching staff that he was back.

“I knew it was just gonna come,” Finney-Smith said. “Knowing Luka, I shoot with him all the time, so I knew nothing (was) wrong with his shot. He hasn’t played for a while, so he ain’t played since Christmas. And guys want him to come back and be 30, 10 and 10, but it takes time. He’s human, and I’m just happy he found his rhythm.”

Dončić’s transition has been eased by having Redick (his former teammate and friend), assistant coach Greg St. Jean (his former offensive coordinator in Dallas) and Dallas teammates Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris alongside him (and Christian Wood before he was waived).

“I think just having familiar faces around is great for him,” Redick said. “You never know though, because you’re talking about a guy who left home as a teenager to go to Madrid in a different country and learn how to speak Spanish on his own. Like, he’s a different dude. But I think for him, given the magnitude of the change of scenery, I think having us around to help support him, I think has been great.”

As the surging Lakers — who have won 14 of 18 games, the best record in the league over that span — continue to make their playoff push, there is also the additional incentive of potentially beating a Western Conference playoff threat in a game that could impact the standings and matchups.

“I’m excited, man,” Finney-Smith said. “I know (Dončić is) gonna be ready but I try not to put too much pressure on him because at the end of the day, we just want to get the win. We get the win, I know he’s gonna be happy.”

[FireNicoHarrison]

Lakers are one big away to be a perennial contender... Luka played the WCF with Powell&Kleber so it wouldn't be a surprise if they won a couple of PO rounds already this year.

On the other hands the Mavs. Ouch.

[F Gump]

I liked this post because it’s a smart take and I know you know a lot about where teams are financially. And I’m replying because I want to convert. (Help my unbelief!) 

But jeez, man. FanDuel has this year’s championship odds at +1800 (6th) for the Lakers and +9000 (11th) for the Mavs. And I get why you think the Lakes are limited in what maneuvers they can make next year, but after that, they only have Doncic, Reeves, and Vandy on contract. 

They’re the Lakers. Stars want to be there. I can’t see betting against em.

That's a fair and reasonable take. 

However I happen to disagree on the thought it will somehow be easy for the Lakers to be flush with talent out of the blue in a few years. I mean, are they really the gold standard for roster building these days?

Let's look at their cap room one step further, however, in both directions. 

In one direction, say LeBron wants another supermax deal - i can't imagine they say no. But then, how good will he be? Catering to him because they can't say no (see James, Bronny) doesn't mean he will be great. But in that scenario, there's no money to spend on adding talent, because LeBron wants and gets first dibs on it. 

There's another direction possible, which is that Luka gets to 2026 and decides he wants a different team going forward. Maybe one on the east coast, closer to Europe. So he walks. Just goes to another team. Where's their future then? 

I see nothing in those possibilities that makes me think LA is a lock on any upcoming titles, much less several. Maybe they can find a path to squeeze through, who knows .... but it's so iffy from here to there. 

I at least see the pieces already assembled, on Dallas. If they are healthy -- not a slam dunk, to be sure, but very possible. And the Mavs certainly have enough assets to add more pieces as needed. With the well rounded and deep talent base already assembled, and NOT lacking elite talent either, I see better possibilities.

[DL2RimRocker]

That's a fair and reasonable take. 

However I happen to disagree on the thought it will somehow be easy for the Lakers to be flush with talent out of the blue in a few years. I mean, are they really the gold standard for roster building these days?

Let's look at their cap room one step further, however, in both directions. 

In one direction, say LeBron wants another supermax deal - i can't imagine they say no. But then, how good will he be? Catering to him because they can't say no (see James, Bronny) doesn't mean he will be great. But in that scenario, there's no money to spend on adding talent, because LeBron wants and gets first dibs on it. 

There's another direction possible, which is that Luka gets to 2026 and decides he wants a different team going forward. Maybe one on the east coast, closer to Europe. So he walks. Just goes to another team. Where's their future then? 

I see nothing in those possibilities that makes me think LA is a lock on any upcoming titles, much less several. Maybe they can find a path to squeeze through, who knows .... but it's so iffy from here to there. 

I at least see the pieces already assembled, on Dallas. If they are healthy -- not a slam dunk, to be sure, but very possible. And the Mavs certainly have enough assets to add more pieces as needed. With the well rounded and deep talent base already assembled, and NOT lacking elite talent either, I see better possibilities.

I really hope they keep the pick though, or trade it for a player under 25. I think PJ, Christie and Lively are players to build on and it would be nice if they could develop another young player. If all healthy, I dont see where they need much in terms of vets on this team. 

A nice PG or SF in this draft would be nice to compliment Lively and Christie and would fill a current need

[khaled1987]

Good point. However, I was comparing the fact Philly signed both to max deals, regardless of age and injury history in a attempt to win it all.. It's looking like a very bad decision. I also was referencing a post a few pages back by Khalid 1987 saying if you're more concerned about paying out big contracts, you aren't concerned about winning.

And it is still the case. 
Mismanagement happens while you try to win, happens while you try to save money, injuries happen and ruin careers. You take the risks and you live with it.
The question in play, in my reply, is that Luka trade doesn't really sound like a win now move, that this was the excuse they had to announce, almost like 95% of trades. 

I fail to see how the Embiid example is related to the "motive" of the trade, not when AD himself is closer to Embiid in terms of height, injuries, age while actually being the inferior player when healthy.

[Smitty]

If the basketball Gods are real, they'll give us a 2 vs 7 OR 3 vs 6 matchup with Lakers/Mavs in round one. Must see TV!

[HoosierDaddyKid]

If the basketball Gods are real, they'll give us a 2 vs 7 OR 3 vs 6 matchup with Lakers/Mavs in round one. Must see TV!

There are no guarantees that the Mavs will finish 6th or 7th, and I believe the Lakers will not finish 2nd or 3rd either. JMO, however.

[Smitty]

There are no guarantees that the Mavs will finish 6th or 7th, and I believe the Lakers will not finish 2nd or 3rd either. JMO, however.

I think there's a good chance that the Lakers finish 2 or 3. They are 2.5 behind Denver for 2. And 2 games behind Memphis for 3. The Lakers have won 14 of 18 and now have the added Luka boost. 

The Mavs have to hold water and finish 8 at minimum, which is where they currently stand. If they can, they get a 1 game shot at capturing the 7 seed. IF the Bigs come back and give the Mavs a boost, it's not unreasonable to think they could get to 6, which they're only a half game out of at the moment.

All I'm saying is that I want the stars to align and give us the matchup everyone wants to see. Would be the highest rated Round 1 matchup of all time. Maybe even beat the Finals numbers, depending on the teams that make it.

[FireNicoHarrison]

If the basketball Gods are real, they'll give us a 2 vs 7 OR 3 vs 6 matchup with Lakers/Mavs in round one. Must see TV!

Man, why do you want the Mavs so bad?

I hope not... Even with those no bigs Fakers version, it would be a massacre.

Every team in the universe is scared to face Doncic in the PO.

[SleepingHero]

If the basketball Gods are real, they'll give us a 2 vs 7 OR 3 vs 6 matchup with Lakers/Mavs in round one. Must see TV!

A first round matchup with Luka would be pretty crazy. Although I fear for the results in that case. 

Is it bad that I am not super afraid of OKC? Mavs seem to have had their number with or without Luka. I can’t imagine they’d be excited to face a healthy Davis and hopefully healthy Lively+Gafford.

Honestly few teams can even match that size now thinking about it.

[mvossman]

I liked this post because it’s a smart take and I know you know a lot about where teams are financially. And I’m replying because I want to convert. (Help my unbelief!) 

But jeez, man. FanDuel has this year’s championship odds at +1800 (6th) for the Lakers and +9000 (11th) for the Mavs. And I get why you think the Lakes are limited in what maneuvers they can make next year, but after that, they only have Doncic, Reeves, and Vandy on contract. 

They’re the Lakers. Stars want to be there. I can’t see betting against em.

The potential free agent route is a very good point.  I am used to thinking from a Mavs perspective where landing a big free agent with cap space is a pipe dream.  I would still argue that Luka legit title opportunity got reset a couple of years.

[mvossman]

So here is my prediction... The Mavs will go all-in to try and win a championship in the next three years. Kyrie and AD will stay somewhat healthy. When either:

1. The Mavs win a championship(s)
   
2. OR It is clear that it isn't going to happen
   

The Mavs will trade AD, Kyrie and any other member of the team that is 30+ to the highest bidder to start a rebuild. 

Honestly, not a terrible position to be in. But, we were in a much better position just 1 month ago. Which is why people are pissed. And so am I.

But, keep in mind... This is what the Boston Celtics did with their big 3. It worked for them.

The problem is that going all in will likely cost the 31 pick and a 32 pick swap.  That would mean they do not have control of the first round picks from 27 through 32.  Its very difficult to execute a rebuild when you can't tank for picks for 6 straight years.

[michaeltex]

A first round matchup with Luka would be pretty crazy. Although I fear for the results in that case. 

Is it bad that I am not super afraid of OKC? Mavs seem to have had their number with or without Luka. I can’t imagine they’d be excited to face a healthy Davis and hopefully healthy Lively+Gafford.

Honestly few teams can even match that size now thinking about it.

To me, OKC, CLE and maybe MEM are the best "big" teams right now. But DAL should join that group once everybody gets well.

IMO, a lot of people are hating on DAL, even some on this board, because of the way the trade was orchestrated. But if you step back and look at what a healthy DAL team looks like, it would show that there is indeed enough talent to compete for a championship. DAL only had AD on the court for basically half a game and look at the performance. And that was after the team just basically handed AD and Christie a uniform, snapped a few promo pics and played the game.  Imagine what it will be like with more practices under their belt to integrate with team mates.

This team's entire front court has been gutted for both starters and backups, yet they have remained competitive (apart from last Sunday's GSW game), in every contest when a lot of teams would just have folded the tents and waited on the lottery show. As the injury list gets shorter, more quality players become available and the ability to compete with anyone will become apparent to all the haters.

[mvossman]

To me, OKC, CLE and maybe MEM are the best "big" teams right now. But DAL should join that group once everybody gets well.

IMO, a lot of people are hating on DAL, even some on this board, because of the way the trade was orchestrated. But if you step back and look at what a healthy DAL team looks like, it would show that there is indeed enough talent to compete for a championship. DAL only had AD on the court for basically half a game and look at the performance. And that was after the team just basically handed AD and Christie a uniform, snapped a few promo pics and played the game.  Imagine what it will be like with more practices under their belt to integrate with team mates.

This team's entire front court has been gutted for both starters and backups, yet they have remained competitive (apart from last Sunday's GSW game), in every contest when a lot of teams would just have folded the tents and waited on the lottery show. As the injury list gets shorter, more quality players become available and the ability to compete with anyone will become apparent to all the haters.

I don't consider myself a Mavs hater, but here are the reasons I don't think they are currently a contender:

Continuity.  Your core needs time to play together and our core will have virtually none of that due to the trade and injuries.

Fit.  This team was built to be P&R centered around Luka.  Now we have no true P&R PG with P&R centers.  Lots of questions.

Creation.  Most NBA champions have an elite (top 5) creator.  Kyrie is better off ball and AD does not create a lot for others.

To be fair, I only really consider OKC, Cleveland and Boston to be true contenders.  There is a big drop off after those three teams.  Dallas is probably in that second tier, but its hard to know even that without seeing the team healthy.

[FireNicoHarrison]

I don't consider myself a Mavs hater, but here are the reasons I don't think they are currently a contender:

Continuity.  Your core needs time to play together and our core will have virtually none of that due to the trade and injuries.

Fit.  This team was built to be P&R centered around Luka.  Now we have no true P&R PG with P&R centers.  Lots of questions.

Creation.  Most NBA champions have an elite (top 5) creator.  Kyrie is better off ball and AD does not create a lot for others.

To be fair, I only really consider OKC, Cleveland and Boston to be true contenders.  There is a big drop off after those three teams.  Dallas is probably in that second tier, but its hard to know even that without seeing the team healthy.

Agree.

Luka trade was just not bad for the poor return but even because it created a big hole in the back court.

No way Mavs will have fortune in half court PO basketball with Exum& Dinwiddie at the point. It will be ugly to see.

We are 2/3 step behind right now compared to last year despite the fake news that Harrison gives us.

[michaeltex]

I don't consider myself a Mavs hater, but here are the reasons I don't think they are currently a contender:

Continuity.  Your core needs time to play together and our core will have virtually none of that due to the trade and injuries.

Fit.  This team was built to be P&R centered around Luka.  Now we have no true P&R PG with P&R centers.  Lots of questions.

Creation.  Most NBA champions have an elite (top 5) creator.  Kyrie is better off ball and AD does not create a lot for others.

To be fair, I only really consider OKC, Cleveland and Boston to be true contenders.  There is a big drop off after those three teams.  Dallas is probably in that second tier, but its hard to know even that without seeing the team healthy.

I don't disagree. Those are valid points.

I will, however point out that last season's team had it's core also changed at the trade deadline and it went on to play in the finals. 

I agree with your PnR comment, although I will point out that Gafford was feasting quite regularly after DLive got injured and before his own freak accident.

I do think creation is an issue, however this team has been successful over the last month playing without either bigs or dedicated shot creation. Improved ball movement and whole team involvement has worked in place of standing around waiting to see what Luka's gonna do this time.

I agree it's hard to understand without seeing the healthy team together, but there are glimpses that could be exciting.