'25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive

[BigDirk41]

I kind of used this as a way to see weaknesses in the roster and building out a rotation helps me think of who could be traded and for what. This is what a good front office would be doing at the moment.

You lost me at good front office..lol

[Reunion Mav]

Yeah, this thread definitely just became an extreme example of "before and after." Not sure I'm ready to delve deeply into the new realities of this just yet.

I did find myself thinking about the after before I got up this morning. I’m trying to look forward to the game tonight once the deadline passes. It occurs we might play Luka in a playin game. I even found myself missing Maxi from Wurzburg. (grief is not fun and can be down right weird).

I can’t get into who is going to do what yet either but I think it will be a good start for me to watch tonight. Tuesdays game may have helped a little. We still have several guys we like. We should play better than we have without Luka. 

Hang in there everyone. Maybe discussing our new team will help.

[Chicagojk]

Playoff rotations....they will all be rested because there won't be a playoff run

[Reunion Mav]

My how things have changed...

Trying to think through a rotation with the current squad to even get to the playoffs. I'd drop to a tight 9-man group and treat every game like a playoff game to some extent. Until Lively comes back, AD will have to understand that he's needed a the 5. This is what it could look like in my opinion:


Kyrie 36 | Dinwiddie 12
Klay 26 | Christie 18 | Dinwiddie 4
PJW 20 | Martin 22 | Christie 6
AD 10 | Naji 24 | PJW 14
Gafford 24 | AD 24



Kyrie 36   - season avg 35.9
Klay 26   -  season avg 27.2
PJW 34   - season avg 32.9
AD 34   -  season avg 34.3
Gafford 24   - season avg 21.6

Dinwiddie 16   -  season avg 25.0
Christie 24   -  season avg 25.1
Martin 22   -  season avg 30.4
Naji 24   -  season avg 24.3


Reserves: Exum, Hardy, Omax
Injured: Lively, Powell

*Edit with Martin instead of Grimes

I could come to like this group. At least our starters are legitimate starter level guys and we have 6 or 7 more who can contribute to the rotation. That’s as far as I can go right now.

[mvossman]

I could come to like this group. At least our starters are legitimate starter level guys and we have 6 or 7 more who can contribute to the rotation. That’s as far as I can go right now.

Not near enough creation.  Its going to be Kyrie and AD ISO on offense.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I wonder if the Boston game-flow might be instructive as to what to expect from rotations going forward.  The assumption has been that we'd start Gafford, AD, PJ, Klay and Irving.  I'm not so sure.  I've not been in love with the idea of Klay at the two.  And, as many have noted, that lineup is hurting for creation.  AD has to play some center for now as we don't know when Lively will return or what his conditioning will be like.  Here is what I saw last night.


Against Boston we saw at least two of Irving, Exum and SD on the floor at all times.  What was that stat last year about how great Exum the starter was versus how great Exum the sub was?  Continuing to do this when everyone is healthy helps with the creation issue, but heavy minutes for Exum/SD creates a real minutes crunch for your wings.  But, if you don't play Exum/SD heavy minutes then someone from among your wings (probably Naji or Christie) has to take on more creation responsibilities.  That is good in theory, but we've seen teams successfully take the ball out of Kyrie's hands.  My guess is either Exum or SD (maybe both) will get more minutes going forward than many of us anticipate.  I suspect this will be addressed this summer as both Exum and SD are FA's.    

Last night Gafford played almost 34 minutes and platooned at Center with OMax (we actually survived the OMax minutes pretty well BTW).  Gafford averages 22 minutes and OMax probably won't see the light of day when AD and PJ are back.  I think we may see AD as the starter at center getting 22-26 minutes there with Gafford getting the rest.  AD would get some minutes at PF each half as Kidd needs to see how that looks.  That makes more sense to me than starting Gafford and pushing everyone down a spot.  You can grab the AD at the 4 minutes when PJ sits.  This position may be difficult to manage if we ever see a day when Lively, Gafford and AD are all available at the same time.  All three deserve PT, but pushing more of AD's minutes to the 4 impacts our style of play and creates a real minutes crunch down the roster.  

The way we played our 3 and 4 positions was somewhat interchangeable last night.  Klay and Edwards were kind of a tandem against Boston except Edwards didn't play in the fourth.  Naji and Christie were kind of a tandem except they ate up all of the fourth quarter minutes that Edwards didn't get (and closed together instead of Klay).  When PJ is back, the 14 minutes Edwards got will go to him.  You've got to find another 14-16 minutes for him AND some minutes for AD.  Klay, Christie and Naji played 28, 30 and 28 minutes respectively against Boston.  PJ needs to get another 14-16 minutes from these guys as does AD.  Naji averages 24 and Klay averages 27.  Christie averaged 25 in LA, but that is misleading.  He was well over 30 the last 25 games as a starter.  So, something has to give to get PJ to 28-30 minutes and fill out AD's non-center minutes.  Oh wait, we haven't even mentioned Caleb Martin.     

If/when everyone is healthy, we have 3 centers in AD, Gafford and Lively.  We have five wings in PJ, Christie, Naji, Klay and Martin plus some of the AD minutes.  And, you have Kyrie, Exum and SD as creators.  You can argue that all 11 deserve roles.  Exum and SD are the weak links, but bring a skill that is missing elsewhere on the roster.  It would really help of some of our wings were really good at creating...not just on a random Thursday against New Orleans.  I mean in the playoffs.  Exum and SD are both FA's this summer and we have a draft pick that might net us someone here.  We have EB rights on Exum and could use the NTMLE on SD assuming we want him and assuming it costs more than a minimum to keep him.

If you want to start looking ahead, we will likely go above the first apron.  We are only $3mm under the first apron for 12 players if you assume Kyrie stays at his $43.9mm PO and just adds years.  We still have to account for Exum, SD (or their replacements) and a possible draft pick or at least another minimum contract if the pick is traded.  Depending on what they do, they could be pretty tight against the second apron.  

The implications of operating over the first apron this summer are:  1. No incoming S&T's, 2. You only have the NTMLE, 3. You can't use our existing TPE's and 4. Trades can only bring back 100% of the outgoing salary or less.  Its that last one that will largely dictate what we can/can't do to try to consolidate some of our excess into more ball handling.  BTW, Gafford and Martin get you to $20mm.  Martin and Hardy get you to $15mm.  I wonder if part of the Martin deal was to get a tradeable contract for the summer.  Of course, maybe we have a strong playoff run and decide to bring everyone back.  One possible option for shot creation in the draft would be to grab the PG at Alabama.  That way Irving would be united (not reunited) with Labaron (note the spelling)

[Smitty]

I could see it playing out something like this until Lively and Martin are back:

   

Total Minutes:

Kyrie 36
PJW 34
Davis 34
Klay 26
Christie 26
Gafford 24
Dinwiddie 22
Naji 18
Exum 12
OMax 8

[BigDirk41]

I don't think we are going to see AD at the 5 much once Lively is healthy. Kidd stated yesterday that Gafford or Lively will start at the 5 when we are healthy, AD at the 4 and PJ at the 3. Davis has also been told he will be a 4 here. I personally don't think that is a winning formula, but seems to be what Kidd has promised AD. Ideally AD would play a lot of minutes at the 5 and close as the 5, but that's not practical with this strange roster we have. Honestly how do the Mavs keep Lively off the floor to close every game? Then you are looking at Lively/AD together in crunch time. I'm skeptical of how this will work.

[F Gump]

DS thanks for that analysis.

I don't think we can extrapolate much from the way the minutes and rotations were distributed last night. The team had almost NO players available who normally would get minutes at C or PF (only Gafford out of Gafford-Lively-AD-PJW). That skewed the look with everyone else as they tried to fill all those minutes.

I don't think Exum-SD will have the significant minutes they did last night, once AD and PJW are back eating up a combined 65-75 every night. And as you note, the Mavs are uber-deep at the SG/SF wings now (so Exum/SD won't need to play there). PJW will end up playing a lot of SF since AD will be playing PF. About the wing depth, one thing overlooked in the trades is that both Christie and Martin have been regular starters with their prior teams, which speaks a bit to their relative ability as well as their capacity to compete.

I think AD will start at PF, not C, because that's his preference and he has the relative place in the pecking order to be catered to. Obviously there will be all kinds of lineups used for the next 2 months and they will figure out what works best, but I would expect Gafford-AD-PJW will be the initial starting frontcourt.

Your idea that this summer will see them using Apron 2 as their limit rather than Apron 1 makes a lot of sense. They are already too close to Apron 1 as you note, and that doesn't include the cap hit for the #1 pick (the range from pick 15-20 is 4.65-3.65M, so it will have an impact) nor money for either Exum or SD (if they bring back either or both). I wonder if they will sign Edwards to the 15-man later this season with a NG for next year.

About next year's roster, I think Hardy is definitely gone, and used as trade filler in some way. I also think the rest of the season will determine where they go with Gaff and PJW. I think in the summer they will try to navigate extensions for both, and the success (or the price) might determine whether one or both might be seen as expendable in a trade. Both should have great trade value. OTOH, I'm not sure I like the idea of consolidating them in a trade for a big salary player such as KD, as I think having depth is important, and both are still young, so I would hope they find a way to keep them.

[mvossman]

I wonder if the Boston game-flow might be instructive as to what to expect from rotations going forward.  The assumption has been that we'd start Gafford, AD, PJ, Klay and Irving.  I'm not so sure.  I've not been in love with the idea of Klay at the two.  And, as many have noted, that lineup is hurting for creation.  AD has to play some center for now as we don't know when Lively will return or what his conditioning will be like.  Here is what I saw last night.


Against Boston we saw at least two of Irving, Exum and SD on the floor at all times.  What was that stat last year about how great Exum the starter was versus how great Exum the sub was?  Continuing to do this when everyone is healthy helps with the creation issue, but heavy minutes for Exum/SD creates a real minutes crunch for your wings.  But, if you don't play Exum/SD heavy minutes then someone from among your wings (probably Naji or Christie) has to take on more creation responsibilities.  That is good in theory, but we've seen teams successfully take the ball out of Kyrie's hands.  My guess is either Exum or SD (maybe both) will get more minutes going forward than many of us anticipate.  I suspect this will be addressed this summer as both Exum and SD are FA's.    

Last night Gafford played almost 34 minutes and platooned at Center with OMax (we actually survived the OMax minutes pretty well BTW).  Gafford averages 22 minutes and OMax probably won't see the light of day when AD and PJ are back.  I think we may see AD as the starter at center getting 22-26 minutes there with Gafford getting the rest.  AD would get some minutes at PF each half as Kidd needs to see how that looks.  That makes more sense to me than starting Gafford and pushing everyone down a spot.  You can grab the AD at the 4 minutes when PJ sits.  This position may be difficult to manage if we ever see a day when Lively, Gafford and AD are all available at the same time.  All three deserve PT, but pushing more of AD's minutes to the 4 impacts our style of play and creates a real minutes crunch down the roster.  

The way we played our 3 and 4 positions was somewhat interchangeable last night.  Klay and Edwards were kind of a tandem against Boston except Edwards didn't play in the fourth.  Naji and Christie were kind of a tandem except they ate up all of the fourth quarter minutes that Edwards didn't get (and closed together instead of Klay).  When PJ is back, the 14 minutes Edwards got will go to him.  You've got to find another 14-16 minutes for him AND some minutes for AD.  Klay, Christie and Naji played 28, 30 and 28 minutes respectively against Boston.  PJ needs to get another 14-16 minutes from these guys as does AD.  Naji averages 24 and Klay averages 27.  Christie averaged 25 in LA, but that is misleading.  He was well over 30 the last 25 games as a starter.  So, something has to give to get PJ to 28-30 minutes and fill out AD's non-center minutes.  Oh wait, we haven't even mentioned Caleb Martin.     

If/when everyone is healthy, we have 3 centers in AD, Gafford and Lively.  We have five wings in PJ, Christie, Naji, Klay and Martin plus some of the AD minutes.  And, you have Kyrie, Exum and SD as creators.  You can argue that all 11 deserve roles.  Exum and SD are the weak links, but bring a skill that is missing elsewhere on the roster.  It would really help of some of our wings were really good at creating...not just on a random Thursday against New Orleans.  I mean in the playoffs.  Exum and SD are both FA's this summer and we have a draft pick that might net us someone here.  We have EB rights on Exum and could use the NTMLE on SD assuming we want him and assuming it costs more than a minimum to keep him.

If you want to start looking ahead, we will likely go above the first apron.  We are only $3mm under the first apron for 12 players if you assume Kyrie stays at his $43.9mm PO and just adds years.  We still have to account for Exum, SD (or their replacements) and a possible draft pick or at least another minimum contract if the pick is traded.  Depending on what they do, they could be pretty tight against the second apron.  

The implications of operating over the first apron this summer are:  1. No incoming S&T's, 2. You only have the NTMLE, 3. You can't use our existing TPE's and 4. Trades can only bring back 100% of the outgoing salary or less.  Its that last one that will largely dictate what we can/can't do to try to consolidate some of our excess into more ball handling.  BTW, Gafford and Martin get you to $20mm.  Martin and Hardy get you to $15mm.  I wonder if part of the Martin deal was to get a tradeable contract for the summer.  Of course, maybe we have a strong playoff run and decide to bring everyone back.  One possible option for shot creation in the draft would be to grab the PG at Alabama.  That way Irving would be united (not reunited) with Labaron (note the spelling)

I agree with all of this, but if you are right about two creators on the floor that means we are going to be relying heavily on two vet min signings, one of which has a terrible injury history and disappeared in the playoffs last year.  It has me really confused about the Grimes/Caleb trade.  You would think getting a creator would be a higher priority than swapping 3&D players, especially after getting Max in the AD trade.

[F Gump]

I agree with all of this, but if you are right about two creators on the floor that means we are going to be relying heavily on two vet min signings, one of which has a terrible injury history and disappeared in the playoffs last year.  It has me really confused about the Grimes/Caleb trade.  You would think getting a creator would be a higher priority than swapping 3&D players, especially after getting Max in the AD trade.

I think the Martin trade was an asset trade. It's the OKC working model of getting more talent wherever you can, then figure out the fit later (and at some point you can sell the excess talent for something you need). Grimes was not a future asset.

As for the fact they didn't trade for a creator, maybe that was a question of availability. (Was there a creator they passed on?) 

I also wonder if Exum is MUCH higher valued in their plans than we give him credit for. I don't buy the meme that his poor play in the playoffs, one time, and perhaps for reasons we don't recognize, has him incapable of being useful or being much better the next time. Brunson went from crap to star from one playoff to the next. If we want a bigger PG that can really defend, and hit a shot from time to time, gotta admit Exum has filled the bill, except for that one playoff run.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I agree with all of this, but if you are right about two creators on the floor that means we are going to be relying heavily on two vet min signings, one of which has a terrible injury history and disappeared in the playoffs last year.  It has me really confused about the Grimes/Caleb trade.  You would think getting a creator would be a higher priority than swapping 3&D players, especially after getting Max in the AD trade.

Yeah, the need seems obvious and they apparently kept the Martin/Grimes trade open (or was that just the physicals).  I do think Martin's contract is much easier to package this summer than a Grimes S&T.  Could be the move before the move.

I think you either have to believe that we are counting more on Exum/SD than most of us are comfortable with.  Or, you have to believe we can generate enough offense late in the fourth when Kyrie gets doubled though some other source.  I guess there is a third option...one of SD and Exum is out of the rotation in favor of more minutes for Christie/Naji/Martin and the other plays the non-Kyrie minutes (and potentially closes games next to Kyrie).

[KillerLeft]

I also wonder if Exum is MUCH higher valued in their plans than we give him credit for.

Based on how Kidd has approached the last two games, it sure seems like you're onto something here. I don't know if I trust it to come anywhere close to being enough, but I admit I like him much better with the ball in his hands than I like him off-ball.

[mvossman]

I think the Martin trade was an asset trade. It's the OKC working model of getting more talent wherever you can, then figure out the fit later (and at some point you can sell the excess talent for something you need). Grimes was not a future asset.

As for the fact they didn't trade for a creator, maybe that was a question of availability. (Was there a creator they passed on?) 

I also wonder if Exum is MUCH higher valued in their plans than we give him credit for. I don't buy the meme that his poor play in the playoffs, one time, and perhaps for reasons we don't recognize, has him incapable of being useful or being much better the next time. Brunson went from crap to star from one playoff to the next. If we want a bigger PG that can really defend, and hit a shot from time to time, gotta admit Exum has filled the bill, except for that one playoff run.

I guess we will see if it was truly an asset trade.  He is 29, appeared to have peaked several years ago and was underperforming in Philly (not to mention damaged goods).  Grimes is 24, was playing better and the Mavs gave up an asset.  I would put money on Grimes over the next 4 years, but maybe he will end up costing more.

Maybe they are expecting a lot from Exum, but as you said yourself we probably shouldn't read too much into current lineups when so many of the key players are out.  I find it hard to believe they are banking on a player that Kidd did not trust during the playoffs and is clearly made of glass, but I guess I shouldn't find anything hard to believe anymore.

[david75090]

With a small sample size, I see Christie as a younger, better Grimes. Seems like a good ballhandler, better defender.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

I guess we will see if it was truly an asset trade.  He is 29, appeared to have peaked several years ago and was underperforming in Philly (not to mention damaged goods).  Grimes is 24, was playing better and the Mavs gave up an asset.  I would put money on Grimes over the next 4 years, but maybe he will end up costing more.

Grimes was not going to sign for the type of money the Mavs can fit in their salary structure.  Max Christie is his replacement.

TBD if Caleb Martin is worth his contract or not.  He has a very movable contract.

I don't think the Mavs chose Caleb Martin as a superior player to Grimes just because those two were traded for each other.

[F Gump]

1 I guess we will see if it was truly an asset trade.  He is 29, appeared to have peaked several years ago and was underperforming in Philly (not to mention damaged goods).  Grimes is 24, was playing better and the Mavs gave up an asset.  I would put money on Grimes over the next 4 years, but maybe he will end up costing more.

2 Maybe they are expecting a lot from Exum, but as you said yourself we probably shouldn't read too much into current lineups when so many of the key players are out.  I find it hard to believe they are banking on a player that Kidd did not trust during the playoffs and is clearly made of glass, but I guess I shouldn't find anything hard to believe anymore.

1 You are ignoring the value equation imo, which is not "which is the better 3rd stringer to have" but rather "which might be a better trade chip in the summer, Martin or nothing," because between now and then, Grimes had just been demoted to 3rd string and almost no minutes, with the arrival of Christie. And it fortuitously ended up a swap of picks, with the pick this year actually being unusable for the Mavs (due to roster limitations) and the 2030 pick having potential to be just as good (unless you think Philly will get better somehow).

2 I understand the issues with Exum. I just don't accept they are the defining answer. I think we have to admit how good he has been, and how valuable he can be when healthy, and how he's a clear upgrade over SD and very much the model of the secondary PG we want in the mix, and how SD is still here just in case. I'm just saying let's see what it looks like when they add AD and PJW (which adds top-tier size and lessens the minutes from the smaller guys), before we jump off the ledge over the PG position, okay?

[Chicagojk]

I think it is clear the Mavs are going to need to find one more all star level caliber player this offseason (and keep Lively).  From what we have seen from the Mavs vision, that player is probably going to be at least 6'6.  I think Kyrie will be the only small player who gets minutes.    I am not sure who that player is yet, but I think it will be needed.

We probably won't see it much this year, but I am really interested to see Lively and AD on the court together.  Is it awkward or can they make it work?  If they can make it work, I envision both being able to be on the court when a team tries to go small.  In fact, they may make it really difficult for teams to go small.  Although, we traded probably the biggest chess piece when teams have an immobile big on the court.

I think we should keep Exum's minutes at around 20 per game.  He just came back after being injured all year and he has proven he cannot stay healthy.  So 20 minutes is good.  I like him though.  He pushes the pace.  He has good size and can guard pretty well.  He is also not a point A to point b player.  What I mean is he sort of does weird things.  It catches teams off guard.  I think this is the best type of player to pair with Klay.  Klay likes sort of wandering around and finding his way open.    With Exum doing his thing, he can put a lot of pressure on defenses for short stretches. 

The starting lineup with Gafford for the short term and Lively long term is tricky imo.    So that 4-5 minutes will interesting to see how they generate offense.

Also because we can't sign a buyout guy, when Powell is back I release Kelly and take a look at a young guy.   Maybe that Sidy guy who was traded by the spurs, King and then released.   Maybe Patrick Baldwin type.   Just a young kid who hasn't done anything but someone to invest on and see if you can develop.

[audiosway]

I think it is clear the Mavs are going to need to find one more all star level caliber player this offseason (and keep Lively).  From what we have seen from the Mavs vision, that player is probably going to be at least 6'6.  I think Kyrie will be the only small player who gets minutes.    I am not sure who that player is yet, but I think it will be needed.

We probably won't see it much this year, but I am really interested to see Lively and AD on the court together.  Is it awkward or can they make it work?  If they can make it work, I envision both being able to be on the court when a team tries to go small.  In fact, they may make it really difficult for teams to go small.  Although, we traded probably the biggest chess piece when teams have an immobile big on the court.

I think we should keep Exum's minutes at around 20 per game.  He just came back after being injured all year and he has proven he cannot stay healthy.  So 20 minutes is good.  I like him though.  He pushes the pace.  He has good size and can guard pretty well.  He is also not a point A to point b player.  What I mean is he sort of does weird things.  It catches teams off guard.  I think this is the best type of player to pair with Klay.  Klay likes sort of wandering around and finding his way open.    With Exum doing his thing, he can put a lot of pressure on defenses for short stretches. 

The starting lineup with Gafford for the short term and Lively long term is tricky imo.    So that 4-5 minutes will interesting to see how they generate offense.

Also because we can't sign a buyout guy, when Powell is back I release Kelly and take a look at a young guy.   Maybe that Sidy guy who was traded by the spurs, King and then released.   Maybe Patrick Baldwin type.   Just a young kid who hasn't done anything but someone to invest on and see if you can develop.

Along the lines of what you are talking about with a young kid...I wonder if they bring Gortman back. The only reason they released him were to fill depth due to injuries. Good shooter and distributor.

I really like Exum. He's a rangy defender that can find the open man and hit shots.

The offense looked much different last night than it had been. I have a feeling that is what Kidd has wanted to run. But, that doesn't fit what Luka does. Now that they know he isn't coming back they made the change. It really flustered Boston. I think that type of offense will also look even better with Lively at the 5. He is a better passer than Gaff.

That's actually a very GS type offense they were running last night. It's hard to stop. That is why Klay hit so many shots. He was doing the curl out and cuts he used to do with GS. The more they run it the better they will get at it. Ky looked a little hesitant with it. But, he will get better. It's predicated on a lot of movement with the 5 in the high post. That allows the 5 to either screen or pin down then roll to the basket.

Ky struggled big time in the finals due to the iso sets they were running. Luka is fine with that and excels at it. Ky is just too small against Boston for that. He looked better last night and once comfortable will excel in this new offense.

[F Gump]

Last I looked, Gortman is still around. With the Legends afaik. fwiw