Accurately Assessing the Mavs Recent Personnel Changes

[mvossman]

This is so true. For me, it points to a different conversation, completely. The Mavs were so, so lucky to have gotten that season out of DJJ. There are several things that worked out for them in a "despite the odds" sort of way: rookie play from Lively, Washington fitting here like a glove on the defensive end after the trade, Exum's strong regular season play, etc, etc, but at the very top of that list has got to be the way a vet minimum signing, so close to training camp it seemed like an after thought, had such an insanely positive impact on their season. 

Without any of those pieces of luck, with DJJ being probably the most surprising, we've got a very different vibe around here this summer. We all owe DJJ a lot of respect, imo, and it's probably a good idea to realize that even when your team makes all the "right" kind of moves, a little luck is needed to elevate them.

I don't remember the DJJ signing being met with crickets.  I thought there were several folks that really liked that signing and thought he would end up being a rotational player.  I remember posting that I wished they had signed him to a two year contract similar to Exum.  His performance was unexpected from the standpoint that he took on a bigger role than original planned, but his actual on court impact per minute was very similar to his previous season (3 point percentage, true shooting, points per 36).  It wasn't until the playoffs that his play really overshot expectations (until it didn't in the finals).  As nice as the PJ, DJJ and Exum hits were, I don't think any of them come close to impact or unexpectedness of Lively.  To have a young, raw late lottery pick center become the third best player on the team by the end of the season/playoffs was a complete game changer in so many ways.

[SkenfromLMF]

I think the we undersell the miss on Grant Williams as well, simply because Nico et al turned it into chicken salad... whew!
BUT if we hit on 3/4 moves with the 4th being a recovery from a previous mistake the FO is doing WELL, and seizing the opportunities which often lends itself to good fortune!

[Chicagojk]

I really want to see the news guys on the team. They are being brought in for specific roles. Two of the roles are really simple. Although, they are really tough to master. Really need to see how they look on the court. On way hand saying you are going to defend tough and hit wide open shots is pretty simple. Although, some guys don't handle not touching the ball for 3 minutes.

I liked what I saw with Grimes in his highlights. Not sure where I would rank him vs Josh. I go back and forth. I believe Green was either in the wrong role here or he just wasn't quite ready. I think he will do well in Charlotte. He better. I found it interesting that GS favored veterans over taking Green in a trade. I think they made the right decision as well. Hopefully it is a move where Green gets a chance to find a footing and an expanded role on a bad team. He really needs those reps. Grimes is more ready for that role now and provided 3 and D. I still hope Hardy finds a way to get minutes so my hope is Grimes gets the backup 3 minutes. It is going to be a tight fit though.

Jones was great in our run and first three rounds of the playoffs. He went a few months after a solid shot where it didn't feel like he was going to hit any threes. Give him credit though, he played through it and hit a lot of big shots. I love Marshall's toughness. He played over 20 minutes a game in their OKC playoff series, but a few of those games where blowouts so maybe he got mop up duty. I am going to predict he will be the one guy who frustrates me as he drives into three guys and throws a bad pass or takes a bad shot. He just looks like that guy. I think he can do a lot of the stuff Jones did, but again we have to see how he fits on the floor.

My expectations for Klay is not a third star or an all star, it is a little better fitting, better playing Hardaway. Klay is a little bigger where the lineups may not be as awkward as when we tried to get THJ minutes. While Klay is not an elite defender any longer, I am hoping in a smaller role that he will find a way to be above average. More importantly, he should be a much better off the ball defender than Hardaway. That was the most frustrating thing with Hardaway for me. If he can hit near 40% on a 7-8 threes a game, he should really help....both with production and how other teams defend us. I am a little concerned closing important games with Luka, Ky, and Klay though. Especially going up against teams with these elite scorers.

[mvossman]

I think the we undersell the miss on Grant Williams as well, simply because Nico et al turned it into chicken salad... whew!
BUT if we hit on 3/4 moves with the 4th being a recovery from a previous mistake the FO is doing WELL, and seizing the opportunities which often lends itself to good fortune!

Yeah, Grant Williams was the second biggest move we made in the offseason, and it was a total bust.  But it was the right kind of bust.  A young player that seemed like a fit, but just wasn't.  I think folks (including me) were generally on board with that trade/signing.  I doubt anyone thought our two min signings would end up having a bigger (and better) impact than him.

I feel the same way about this offseason.  Even though Klay is not the direction I would have gone, the low cost in assets and reasonable contract mean that it wont be costly to change directions if it doesn't work out, and its hard to believe he won't be an upgrade, even if it needs to be from the bench.  The other two are perfect young potentially two way players at very reasonable cost.  Given that they upgraded the roster without spending a significant asset (holding on to their firsts) I would give this offseason at least an A-.  If they get a quality vet PG I probably bump it up to A.

[mvossman]

I understand this POV, but I'm not buying it. I know this pushback might miss some of the nuance you're going for here, but I think, in a general sense, this line of thinking is a trend towards minimizing the magic of a specific group of players fitting together a specific way, both on and off the court. Personally, I don't view the two WCF appearances as being equal, or even close. This one seemed way more repeatable to me (maybe I'm wrong about that). I think there really is some cause for concern that this amount of change, more with DJJ than the others, might be too much to easily capitalize on the momentum last season's team generated. I mean, we've even got Jared Dudley saying he was "the best defender on the team" from Vegas, weeks after he left. 

I agree that it's silly in a way to look at guys like DJJ as irreplaceable, but that doesn't mean I'm able to get to a place where I feel like any comparable player can be plugged in to achieve the same results. I find that logic faulty on numerous levels. I do have hope that it can work out with these, specific replacements, but that's because I like the replacements, as well as the reasoning behind targeting them (or at least what I think that reasoning must've been). In fact, I think it's almost a no-brainer that Thompson will be better than Hardaway and Grimes will be better than Green, but with DJJ and Marshall, I think the change will require a pretty major adjustment from the team to succeed. The good news is that if they can make that adjustment competently, the team might be better for it in ways we can't predict. 

But, I still think it's true that if DJJ doesn't have the season he had (along with other lucky fits) the team would've been disappointing, Luka and Kyrie or not.

Agree on the difference between the finals team and the WCF team.  That team's frontcourt depth was decimated by the KP trade.  The only playable players were Powell/Maxi/Dorian.  I think it was Kidd's finest coaching job of his career to close the season strong and get to the WCF with that frontcourt.  At the time, Brunson was not near Kyrie level yet and with Powell struggling so much in the playoffs, they basically ran a 6 man rotation.  The only thing that team had over this one was a legit third creator (which is why I wish we would have gone down that route).

[Jym]

The craziest thing about the Finals run is that Luka was at 75% power at best.
Hopefully they can find ways to save him more in the regular season this time

[Smitty]

Everyone is worried about the starting lineup, I get it. DJJ was huge for the Mavs, but some context... The Mavs had the best defense in the league when they changed the starting lineup post-TDL. In that time the starting lineup of Luka, Kyrie, DJJ, PJW, Gafford played 176 minutes together in 17 games. That's an average of 10.3 mpg. In the playoffs, the starters played 236 minutes together in 22 games, an average of 10.7 mpg. Basically, the first 5 minutes of the first and third quarter.

Kidd doesn't play his starting lineup big minutes together like the Nuggets do (19.9 mpg regular season, 22.8 mpg playoffs). It was one of my complaints when the lineup data was great but it didn't get used enough. Bottom line, there's a big deal being made about team defense with Klay starting in place of DJJ when in reality it's all about rotations. The only thing that really has to happen is for the starting lineup to have a positive net rating, which I think it will (insert Lively).

[mvossman]

Everyone is worried about the starting lineup, I get it. DJJ was huge for the Mavs, but some context... The Mavs had the best defense in the league when they changed the starting lineup post-TDL. In that time the starting lineup of Luka, Kyrie, DJJ, PJW, Gafford played 176 minutes together in 17 games. That's an average of 10.3 mpg. In the playoffs, the starters played 236 minutes together in 22 games, an average of 10.7 mpg. Basically, the first 5 minutes of the first and third quarter.

Kidd doesn't play his starting lineup big minutes together like the Nuggets do (19.9 mpg regular season, 22.8 mpg playoffs). It was one of my complaints when the lineup data was great but it didn't get used enough. Bottom line, there's a big deal being made about team defense with Klay starting in place of DJJ when in reality it's all about rotations. The only thing that really has to happen is for the starting lineup to have a positive net rating, which I think it will (insert Lively).

I think part of the reason the starting rotation minutes were not as big is because we were bringing our best center off the bench.  If you take the center position out of the numbers, the PJ/DJJ/Luka/Kyrie lineup in the playoffs was a lot closer to the 20 minutes of the Nuggets.  Another way to look at this is the Mavs had 3 offense first players in the top 9 playoff rotation (Luka, Kyrie and THJ) and they played less than 100 minutes (5 minutes a game) together.  

That being said, starting and finishing with Klay only really means roughly 10 minutes a game that they are committed to playing Luka/Kyrie/Klay together.  There is a strong argument to staggering the three of them (like they stagger Luka and Kyrie) as much as they can to spread out the offense (regardless of the potential need to do so defensively).  I don't think its going to be a problem in the regular season, and we can worry about the playoffs when we see how this all works out on the court.

[Smitty]

I think part of the reason the starting rotation minutes were not as big is because we were bringing our best center off the bench.  If you take the center position out of the numbers, the PJ/DJJ/Luka/Kyrie lineup in the playoffs was a lot closer to the 20 minutes of the Nuggets.  Another way to look at this is the Mavs had 3 offense first players in the top 9 playoff rotation (Luka, Kyrie and THJ) and they played less than 100 minutes (5 minutes a game) together.  

That being said, starting and finishing with Klay only really means roughly 10 minutes a game that they are committed to playing Luka/Kyrie/Klay together.  There is a strong argument to staggering the three of them (like they stagger Luka and Kyrie) as much as they can to spread out the offense (regardless of the potential need to do so defensively).  I don't think its going to be a problem in the regular season, and we can worry about the playoffs when we see how this all works out on the court.

Yeah, that's mostly my point. The Mavs had the best defensive rating in the league post TDL and DJJ played just shy of 20 mpg. That means that the entire team defense was good, not just with DJJ playing POA defense next to LuKai. Like we both mentioned, inserting Lively into that group next year gives you a bit less offense and a bit more defense from the Center position, again offsetting some of the difference in Klay vs DJJ. I just see people hung up on this Klay vs DJJ in the starting lineup and assuming it will tank the defense that we saw last year.

To take it further when looking at how Kidd plays his starting lineups (start of first and third Q) the opening day group played 99 minutes in 12 games (8.2 mpg) and then the most used starting lineup prior to the post-TDL change was 88 minutes in 9 games (9.7 mpg). 

So, again too much is being made of the starting lineup. Even if/when Gafford starts... I'm trying to get ahead of it and tell people to relax

[mvossman]

Yeah, that's mostly my point. The Mavs had the best defensive rating in the league post TDL and DJJ played just shy of 20 mpg. That means that the entire team defense was good, not just with DJJ playing POA defense next to LuKai. Like we both mentioned, inserting Lively into that group next year gives you a bit less offense and a bit more defense from the Center position, again offsetting some of the difference in Klay vs DJJ. I just see people hung up on this Klay vs DJJ in the starting lineup and assuming it will tank the defense that we saw last year.

To take it further when looking at how Kidd plays his starting lineups (start of first and third Q) the opening day group played 99 minutes in 12 games (8.2 mpg) and then the most used starting lineup prior to the post-TDL change was 88 minutes in 9 games (9.7 mpg). 

So, again too much is being made of the starting lineup. Even if/when Gafford starts... I'm trying to get ahead of it and tell people to relax

Yeah, to be honest I was one of the folks freaking out about not having a POA defender (outside of PJ) in the starting lineup.  I still have lingering concerns, but it helps to see that it can be mostly mitigated via lineup construction.

[F Gump]

I understand the comments minimizing the loss of DJJ.

But I am of the opinion he will be missed a lot, and there's nothing that can be (or could have been) done to change that. From following the available money, there's no reason the Mavs couldn't have paid the very same money LAC did, and I suspect they did offer DJJ that 3-for-30 deal but he took it from someone else. (Even after allowing for a cushion, there's that extra $1M in apron room they could have readily spent, yet didn't.) And I can see why he would leave for a starting spot elsewhere, on a playoff-caliber team, that vanished for him in DAL when the Mavs had Klay coming.

But dangit, he was the Premier Defender (one who makes the other team alter the way they play) the Mavs have long wanted, yet never seemed to have. His presence served to make life easier for, and cover the sins of, the Mavs like Luka and Kyrie whose defensive chops are iffy.

I'm certainly glad they added Klay. I can hope that his better shooting will more than make up the difference for DJJ's loss. But I'd much rather have DJJ still here for several years as the Super Defender to sub in for any number of starting players, from 1-4, to alter the game. Or would have loved to have DJJ here starting, with Klay subbing in as the Super Scorer to sub in for any number of starting players, from 1-4, to alter the game. I think there was a great ongoing slot available here for a player with DJJ's skill set.

I'm not gonna even pretend that Naji will make us forget DJJ. I just don't believe that at all. In NO he played behind Herb Jones, their Super Defender, and didn't play 20 mpg. I have to think he's not gonna be more desirable than the Super Defender that was in DAL either. Unfortunately, it is what it is.

[Smitty]

I understand the comments minimizing the loss of DJJ.

But I am of the opinion he will be missed a lot, and there's nothing that can be (or could have been) done to change that. From following the available money, there's no reason the Mavs couldn't have paid the very same money LAC did, and I suspect they did offer DJJ that 3-for-30 deal but he took it from someone else. (Even after allowing for a cushion, there's that extra $1M in apron room they could have readily spent, yet didn't.) And I can see why he would leave for a starting spot elsewhere, on a playoff-caliber team, that vanished for him in DAL when the Mavs had Klay coming.

But dangit, he was the Premier Defender (one who makes the other team alter the way they play) the Mavs have long wanted, yet never seemed to have. His presence served to make life easier for, and cover the sins of, the Mavs like Luka and Kyrie whose defensive chops are iffy.

I'm certainly glad they added Klay. I can hope that his better shooting will more than make up the difference for DJJ's loss. But I'd much rather have DJJ still here for several years as the Super Defender to sub in for any number of starting players, from 1-4, to alter the game. Or would have loved to have DJJ here starting, with Klay subbing in as the Super Scorer to sub in for any number of starting players, from 1-4, to alter the game. I think there was a great ongoing slot available here for a player with DJJ's skill set.

I'm not gonna even pretend that Naji will make us forget DJJ. I just don't believe that at all. In NO he played behind Herb Jones, their Super Defender, and didn't play 20 mpg. I have to think he's not gonna be more desirable than the Super Defender that was in DAL either. Unfortunately, it is what it is.

I'm not trying to minimize it, just providing context. DJJ played 19.9 mpg post TDL, as the starter. Josh Green played 23.5 mpg off the bench. The Mavs had the best defense in the league during that stretch and we assume that DJJ is mostly the reason why. Others say Josh Green is a poor POA defender, yet the team led the league in defense because of the t-e-a-m. Rotations matter. Starting lineup, with Jason Kidd leading the way, not so much.

I think this years team is better. They are deeper and more versatile. The coaching staff can stagger minutes and set rotations to highlight each players strengths, given the different matchups. I do think DJJ got overrated here and highlighted multiple times that he was doing exactly what he's done in his career, it's just that it's exactly what the Mavs needed. In the first three rounds he did actually improve his play, but in the finals he was nearly unplayable and ultimately the Mavs had to make moves to beat the Celtics, if they're fortunate to get back to the Finals... insert Klay.

[KillerLeft]

I don't think its going to be a problem in the regular season, and we can worry about the playoffs when we see how this all works out on the court.

This. 

It's so easy to skip forward, mentally, to what we think this will all look like in the playoffs, but the reality is that it's going to extremely difficult (again) even to make the playoffs in the West. I think the Mavs will make it, but I also think one of the best ways they can position themselves to get back to last season's results is to make better use of the regular season, finish in the top 4 seeds and get at least one home court series, which will be even more difficult. Still, that should be their goal, and I think adding Thompson goes a long way towards making that more possible. 

As you say, there are so many impossible to predict variables between now and the playoffs that the biggest problems they'll be facing at that point, whatever they are, might not even be on our radar right now. 

I just keep coming back to where Thompson is in his career, how much money he took and that he wanted to play here. I think all of that can be viewed as a negative if one assumes he's going to play 30 minutes+ as a starter/finisher, but I'm not 100% sure we didn't jump the gun on that, even to start the season, and I'm almost positive his role can be adjusted if needed, and that he probably knows to expect some type of evaluation of things like that over the course of the season. When you adopt that perspective, all of a sudden those negatives become positives. There IS a way to make having Klay Thompson in this rotation a positive - I'm certain of that. We just have to trust/hope that the Mavs are up to the challenge of putting the team first and finding it. It's in everyone's best interest, including Thompson's. 

As for DJJ, yes, he'll be missed. But, as President of the "you'd better re-sign DJJ or else" contingent, I honestly think this plan might be better. Marshall is a very, very good player, and we're all going to like him a lot. He might not be the defender Jones was, but he's still probably the best defender on this team right now, and he's better offensively than any of the bench players they had in their rotation during last year's playoffs. That's why they kept trying to go to Hardy and/or Hardaway, long after popular opinion would've had them write those guys off for the remainder of the season. 

I think Grimes is a bit of a wildcard, but I was so down on Green that it's a risk I'm more than willing to take at this point, and if it pays off I think you potentially have a player capable of playing a much bigger role here than Green ever has. IF that happens, THAT could potentially take quite a bit of the sting out of losing DJJ.

[KillerLeft]

One more thing:

Whether we think this is right or wrong, strategically, I'm 100% convinced that, despite his words on draft night, Harrison's main goal this off-season was to improve upon DJJ, at least in the starting lineup. He called re-signing Jones "priority 1A and 1B" but we factually know that wasn't the case, because he clearly prioritized signing Thompson over even considering waiting around to negotiate with Jones. Further, there's a ton of smoke out there about how the Mavs made a serious play for KCP before even pivoting to Thompson, and HE would not only have taken DJJ's starting spot, but most of his ROLE, too.

I think this tells us two things:

1) The Mavs are currently much better at the "tampering" part of this process than they used to be, evidenced by their fixation with KCP starting and ending before free agency even began and then them clearly being in the driver's seat with Thompson the second moves were able to actually happen. We've always known the good front offices operate this way, and the Mavs have probably always done this type of thing more than we realize, but this time, they were SUCCESSFUL. I think that's significant.

2) I think they were VERY willing to let DJJ walk to get what they wanted out of the summer. I think that "priority" talk was to show him respect and to keep the door open to what seems, in hindsight, like kind of a fallback option for them.

[WildArkieBoy]

2) I think they were VERY willing to let DJJ walk to get what they wanted out of the summer. I think that "priority" talk was to show him respect and to keep the door open to what seems, in hindsight, like kind of a fallback option for them.

People skills on display, the aspect of GMing I underestimated in viewing Nico initially as a shoe salesman.  

[KillerLeft]

People skills on display, the aspect of GMing I underestimated in viewing Nico initially as a shoe salesman.  

I couldn't agree more. Harrison is so much better at navigating perceptions and even bending them to his purpose than Cuban will ever be.