Accurately Assessing the Mavs Recent Personnel Changes

[WildArkieBoy]

Even though Klay and DJJ were involved in the same trade, along with Josh G., in terms of team strength, Klay is not replacing DJJ, so comparing those two is irrelevant.

Klay is replacing Tim H., Jr.

Marshall and Grimes are replacing DJJ and Josh G., so compare the strengths and weaknesses of those transfers.

My take is that Klay is a definite offensive upgrade to Tim H., Jr. and a slight defensive upgrade.

Additionally, I see Marshall/Grimes> JoshG/DJJ when considering BOTH sides of the ball. . . . 

Please explain why I'm not thinking clearly.

WAB

[dirkfansince1998]

Talent wise it should be an upgrade. Only concern is the balance. Klay is going to play more minutes than THJ. Is going to start and close games. With Marshall/Grimes playing less minutes than Green/DJJ last season.

[WildArkieBoy]

Talent wise it should be an upgrade. Only concern is the balance. Klay is going to play more minutes than THJ. Is going to start and close games. With Marshall/Grimes playing less minutes than Green/DJJ last season.

Thanks for the fine tuning. . . . Anyway, I just read that optimists outlive pessimists.  At 76, that's a consideration.

WAB

[The Jom]

Listened to Legler analyzing this trade right after it was announced. He called Klay an “excellent” defender, emphasizing excellent as he spoke, adding whatever weight his word has to what my own eyeballs were saying.

I viewed Tim as a capable but stupid defender, often getting lost on rotations. Klay to me looks like a major upgrade on any of the three.

I’m less confident than the rest of the board in our new bench pieces. If they are as advertised, it’s gonna be a great year. If not, we’ll still have Exum, Hardy, O-max, Kleber, Gaff, and that’s not terrible. So I’m happy with the modest swings at these pitches.

76 you say? That’s almost old enough to run for President!

[mvossman]

Talent wise it should be an upgrade. Only concern is the balance. Klay is going to play more minutes than THJ. Is going to start and close games. With Marshall/Grimes playing less minutes than Green/DJJ last season.

I agree with (and have voiced) this concern.  However, I'm not sure the minutes will be that different.  During the regular season Timmy averaged 27 minutes a game (he had the second most total minutes on the team).  Klay will probably only be a few more than that, and those minutes may come from Hardy/Exum vs Marshall/Grimes.

In the playoffs Klay will take Timmy/Exum/Hardy minutes (which should be a significant upgrade).  He will probably eat a few more minutes than that, but that will be up to Kidd to manage.  

As for the other two new guys, I don't think either is as good defender as DJJ, but both are better than Green.  So maybe a wash defensively and a small uptick offensively.  Grimes is the only one of the 4 that can shoot with volume.

[Knutsen]

I think it‘s pretty easy without going on a player for player analysis:
Last year we had a lot of players that were very good either on offense or on defense. Now we added three players that are at least good on both sides of the ball. And by „good on offense“ I mean not only being able to shoot, but being able to create a shot or assist as well.

[LukaMVP]

the new signings this summer gave us a better roster than what we had last season. we improved significantly at the offensive end without giving up much, if any, at defensive end.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Maybe it's just me, but I think they're going to miss Jones more than you think. Marshall may be a better shooter but he's not nearly as good as Jones as a POA defender. Klay isn't what he was either as far as keeping players in front of him. He was elite at one time. His lateral movement has slipped since the injuries. One good thing is if he gets blown by, he's got either Gaff or Lively to defend on the backend. Grimes is a good defender, but the jury is out on him since he's had knee issues. Their roster is better however. I hope I'm wrong, but you have to be objective in these evaluations. It can't be all "Rah-Rah"

[mvossman]

Maybe it's just me, but I think they're going to miss Jones more than you think. Marshall may be a better shooter but he's not nearly as good as Jones as a POA defender. Klay isn't what he was either as far as keeping players in front of him. He was elite at one time. His lateral movement has slipped since the injuries. One good thing is if he gets blown by, he's got either Gaff or Lively to defend on the backend. Grimes is a good defender,  but the jury is out on him since he's had knee issues. Their roster is better however. I hope I'm wrong, but you have to be objective in these evaluations. It can't be all "Rah-Rah"

DJJ will be missed.  I don't think we will be able to put quite as elite defense on the floor without him.  He also had the advantage that we knew what we were getting and we knew he fit.  Naji is more of a wild card.  He has a better overall offensive game than DJJ, but I am not sure that will translate to anything meaningful.  There is not enough sample to be confident that he will shoot significantly better from 3 than DJJ, in which case he will not improve on the spacing issues.  Its possible Naji continues his upward trajectory and will be better than DJJ, but personally I would have preferred the sure bet.  Fortunately I think the other two are significant upgrades.

[DanSchwartzgan]

DJJ will be missed.  I don't think we will be able to put quite as elite defense on the floor without him.  He also had the advantage that we knew what we were getting and we knew he fit.  Naji is more of a wild card.  He has a better overall offensive game than DJJ, but I am not sure that will translate to anything meaningful.  There is not enough sample to be confident that he will shoot significantly better from 3 than DJJ, in which case he will not improve on the spacing issues.  Its possible Naji continues his upward trajectory and will be better than DJJ, but personally I would have preferred the sure bet.  Fortunately I think the other two are significant upgrades.

For an interesting thought exercise, go back and find the original thread regarding the signing of DJJ.  Crickets.  There was very little reaction in the moment.  No one knew back then what we were getting.  When people put together their depth charts as we headed toward preseason, people had DJJ as the 3rd and sometimes 4th PF.  Not a wing and a mile from being a starter.

Point being, the only reason we can list Marshall as a second string 3/4 is because we saw how that role played out for a year.  But, at this point last year, almost no one had a vision for what ended up happening.  Some watched almost the entire regular season and still thought he couldn't defend the POA.  Are we confident that our prognostications about what Marshall can't do on this team are any better than our prognostications about DJJ a year ago?

[HoosierDaddyKid]

For an interesting thought exercise, go back and find the original thread regarding the signing of DJJ.  Crickets.  There was very little reaction in the moment.  No one knew back then what we were getting.  When people put together their depth charts as we headed toward preseason, people had DJJ as the 3rd and sometimes 4th PF.  Not a wing and a mile from being a starter.

Point being, the only reason we can list Marshall as a second string 3/4 is because we saw how that role played out for a year.  But, at this point last year, almost no one had a vision for what ended up happening.  Some watched almost the entire regular season and still thought he couldn't defend the POA.  Are we confident that our prognostications about what Marshall can't do on this team are any better than our prognostications about DJJ a year ago?

You are absolutely correct. Nobody expected DJJ to claim the starting wing position and have the season he did. Maybe Marshall will morph into a version of DJJ with better shooting. It a crap shoot at this point.

[KillerLeft]

I'm pretty sold on Marshall being a better player than DJJ. In fact, I think that's kind of obvious.

But, I think it's also obvious that the Mavs will miss DJJ, because of the POA defense and overall athletic ability, which are the two areas in which Marshall is NOT an improvement over him. Both of those two things were huge needs here in Dallas, but DJJ is in the top 1% of athleticism, even in the NBA, which is really saying something.

I think the Mavs got less athletic and a lot slower. DJJ and Green were probably the team's best weapons in transition, for example, and that's worth thinking about, because they keep telling us they want to play faster, even if they don't do so consistently. I think that got harder in a way, although now there are more people capable of handling the ball in transition, for sure.

I understand why they did what they did, I think, and I'm feeling really good about the season, but there are question marks going into it.

[KillerLeft]

For an interesting thought exercise, go back and find the original thread regarding the signing of DJJ.  Crickets.  There was very little reaction in the moment.  No one knew back then what we were getting.  When people put together their depth charts as we headed toward preseason, people had DJJ as the 3rd and sometimes 4th PF.  Not a wing and a mile from being a starter.

This is so true. For me, it points to a different conversation, completely. The Mavs were so, so lucky to have gotten that season out of DJJ. There are several things that worked out for them in a "despite the odds" sort of way: rookie play from Lively, Washington fitting here like a glove on the defensive end after the trade, Exum's strong regular season play, etc, etc, but at the very top of that list has got to be the way a vet minimum signing, so close to training camp it seemed like an after thought, had such an insanely positive impact on their season. 

Without any of those pieces of luck, with DJJ being probably the most surprising, we've got a very different vibe around here this summer. We all owe DJJ a lot of respect, imo, and it's probably a good idea to realize that even when your team makes all the "right" kind of moves, a little luck is needed to elevate them.

[KillerLeft]

Another thing I've been thinking about a lot is this "Thompson is guaranteed to start" thing...

...for one, I don't know that he IS guaranteed to start. I think it's lock that the season will start that way, sure, but will it END that way? I'm not 100% sure of that, OR that he'll FINISH games, especially if POA defense is a problem with that main group the way we think it might be. He's certainly not paid in such a way where it's impossible to imagine him on the bench at times.

And for that matter, neither is PJ Washington. Have we considered how this might look different if Marshall takes HIS spot in the starting lineup? I don't think that's likely, but it's possible.

[surfpuckmd]

For an interesting thought exercise, go back and find the original thread regarding the signing of DJJ.  Crickets.  There was very little reaction in the moment.  No one knew back then what we were getting.  When people put together their depth charts as we headed toward preseason, people had DJJ as the 3rd and sometimes 4th PF.  Not a wing and a mile from being a starter.

Point being, the only reason we can list Marshall as a second string 3/4 is because we saw how that role played out for a year.  But, at this point last year, almost no one had a vision for what ended up happening.  Some watched almost the entire regular season and still thought he couldn't defend the POA.  Are we confident that our prognostications about what Marshall can't do on this team are any better than our prognostications about DJJ a year ago?

I was the loudest cricket chirping for DJJ before we signed him.  I thought he would fit in well with Luka but I thought he would be our 7th or 8th man.  I never anticipated he would start for us and I thought Kidd was foolish for that decision  Kidd was right.  I was wrong.

I'm a Pelicans fan as well and very familiar with Naji Marshall.  He's a comparable overall defender to DJJ but not as quick or athletic.  He's bigger and stronger.  The fit defensively might not be as good as DJJ.  Offensively, he can do more with the ball than DJJ.  I'm not sure we want that on this roster though.  

I believe Nico would have preferred to retain DJJ rather than signing Naji Marshall.  However, DJJ misplayed his hand and Nico made a good decision to grab a good player on a reasonable contract rather than risk losing out on both DJJ and Naji.  

You're right though in that we've downgraded our defense by losing our POA defender.  That is the most apparent weakness on our current roster.  We'll see how that shakes out.  

Our roster is clearly better than last season though including Klay Thompson and Quentin Grimes.  I believe we have the 3rd-best roster in the NBA right now behind only Boston and OKC.

[DanSchwartzgan]

This is so true. For me, it points to a different conversation, completely. The Mavs were so, so lucky to have gotten that season out of DJJ.  

Without any of those pieces of luck, with DJJ being probably the most surprising, we've got a very different vibe around here this summer.  

I think there is yet another conversation that needs to be had.  These are replacement level players.  One WCF appearance it is DFS/Bullock.  Another it is PJW/DJJ.  I think there is a reason we hear rumors about 3-4 guys and, at least in the Nico era, end up with one of them.  Then we hear how close we were to getting someone else on the list.  It is because they are largely interchangeable.  We don't ask much of them because we ask so much of our Super-star and our Star (whether it is Brunson or Kyrie).

So, I'm not in on the luck thing as much as I am the interchangeability thing.  I will acknowledge there are degrees of excellence within these roles and tradeoffs in the specific skillsets these 'replacement level players' possess.  But, that is really what we are talking about here...degrees of excellence between Klay/THJ, DJJ/Naji and Grimes/Green.  

To go back to the OP, I think Klay is a clear upgrade over THJ (for less money).  I thin DJJ/Naji are largely a wash.  I think Naji's size and strength/power on D will work better in the playoffs than DJJ's quickness and athleticism.  I also think Naji is the better offensive player.  My question, and time will tell, is Grimes vs. Green.  My suspicion (I hope I'm wrong) is this was lateral or a slight downgrade.  But, as I've said, even if it is a slight downgrade, the extra $8mm in savings was a critical element to everything else and therefore worth it even for a Green fanboy like me.

[mvossman]

For an interesting thought exercise, go back and find the original thread regarding the signing of DJJ.  Crickets.  There was very little reaction in the moment.  No one knew back then what we were getting.  When people put together their depth charts as we headed toward preseason, people had DJJ as the 3rd and sometimes 4th PF.  Not a wing and a mile from being a starter.

Point being, the only reason we can list Marshall as a second string 3/4 is because we saw how that role played out for a year.  But, at this point last year, almost no one had a vision for what ended up happening.  Some watched almost the entire regular season and still thought he couldn't defend the POA.  Are we confident that our prognostications about what Marshall can't do on this team are any better than our prognostications about DJJ a year ago?

To be honest, I feel like this response misrepresents my position. I did not claim to know what we are getting with Marshall. In fact that is my entire point. He is an unknown commodity. The fact that DJJ turned out better than expected does not mean that Marshall will.  It’s an argument that he might, which I already stipulated. DJJ was the Mavs first option, and I wish he had signed the offered contract, but I did not prognosticate that Marshall would be worse, only that I preferred the known to unknown.

[KillerLeft]

I think there is yet another conversation that needs to be had.  These are replacement level players.  One WCF appearance it is DFS/Bullock.  Another it is PJW/DJJ.  I think there is a reason we hear rumors about 3-4 guys and, at least in the Nico era, end up with one of them.  Then we hear how close we were to getting someone else on the list.  It is because they are largely interchangeable.  We don't ask much of them because we ask so much of our Super-star and our Star (whether it is Brunson or Kyrie).

So, I'm not in on the luck thing as much as I am the interchangeability thing.  I will acknowledge there are degrees of excellence within these roles and tradeoffs in the specific skillsets these 'replacement level players' possess.  But, that is really what we are talking about here...degrees of excellence between Klay/THJ, DJJ/Naji and Grimes/Green.  

I understand this POV, but I'm not buying it. I know this pushback might miss some of the nuance you're going for here, but I think, in a general sense, this line of thinking is a trend towards minimizing the magic of a specific group of players fitting together a specific way, both on and off the court. Personally, I don't view the two WCF appearances as being equal, or even close. This one seemed way more repeatable to me (maybe I'm wrong about that). I think there really is some cause for concern that this amount of change, more with DJJ than the others, might be too much to easily capitalize on the momentum last season's team generated. I mean, we've even got Jared Dudley saying he was "the best defender on the team" from Vegas, weeks after he left. 

I agree that it's silly in a way to look at guys like DJJ as irreplaceable, but that doesn't mean I'm able to get to a place where I feel like any comparable player can be plugged in to achieve the same results. I find that logic faulty on numerous levels. I do have hope that it can work out with these, specific replacements, but that's because I like the replacements, as well as the reasoning behind targeting them (or at least what I think that reasoning must've been). In fact, I think it's almost a no-brainer that Thompson will be better than Hardaway and Grimes will be better than Green, but with DJJ and Marshall, I think the change will require a pretty major adjustment from the team to succeed. The good news is that if they can make that adjustment competently, the team might be better for it in ways we can't predict. 

But, I still think it's true that if DJJ doesn't have the season he had (along with other lucky fits) the team would've been disappointing, Luka and Kyrie or not.

[Mavs2021]

I think there is yet another conversation that needs to be had.  These are replacement level players.  One WCF appearance it is DFS/Bullock.  Another it is PJW/DJJ.  I think there is a reason we hear rumors about 3-4 guys and, at least in the Nico era, end up with one of them.  Then we hear how close we were to getting someone else on the list.  It is because they are largely interchangeable.  We don't ask much of them because we ask so much of our Super-star and our Star (whether it is Brunson or Kyrie).

I think you take our 2024 roster, slot them into the 2022 play-offs (whether it´s with Brunson or Kyrie) I think we win the championship. On the other hand the 2022 team loses to the Thunder, if they get past the Clippers. There are levels to this. The 3rd/4th best guys on championship teams are not limited borderline starters that you coach up (no disrespect to DFS/Bullock). They are former "stars" that slot into a supporting role.

[SwisherPrice]

If the Mavs get the Naji Marshall of last season - who was efficient and shot well, then there won't be any dropoff from DJJ and it might even be an upgrade. But if they get the other Naji from previous years then that will be a downgrade from DJJ.

DJJ was so effective because he is a career 50% FG player so you knew he wasn't going to hurt the offense with many missed shots. And the player we saw last season was a respectable 3-pt shooter. 34% in the regular season and 36% in the playoffs is not great but also not bad. When you combine with his overall offensive efficiency and great defense, that made him valuable to the team.