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Tonight's game, and Thursday's, are important tells for this season. Sacramento is a good team. Sabonis, Fox, and Murray are really strong players. But a Luka-led team - especially one with the kind of help Luka gets from Kyrie - is either a contender or a faceplant. IMHO the Nuggets, Clippers, Wolves, Thunder, and Pels - and certainly the Celtics - are all considerably better than the Kings. Moreover, we've noted over and over again that the Mavs must not end up in the play-in, because the league will make sure the Lakers come out of it no matter what. So it's the twin circumstance of 1) two back-to-back, absolute win-or-die games, 2) against the sort of opponent that the Mavs must be able to win a must-win game to be taken seriously.
I won't be ashamed as a Mavs fan if the Mavs lose one or both of these games, but I do think that their outcome says a lot about what our attitude as a fan base ought to be going into the playoffs. If the Mavs don't win both of these games, then we should be pleasantly amazed at anything better than a very meek first round exit. My belief is that this team is better than that and will show out tonight and Thursday.
Oh, and Sabonis is the straw that stirs the drink, and we have Landlord, DLive, PJ, and Maxi to guard him. If the Mavs don't contain him solidly in these games, it's either bad coaching or hangovers.
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03-26-2024, 01:23 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-26-2024, 01:24 PM by SleepingHero.)
Has there ever been a moment in the Luka era where this was possible?
@MavsHighlights
Over his last 6 games
Luka is shooting 38.7%fgs
And they've all been Wins
*he didn't play against OKC
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03-26-2024, 03:22 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-26-2024, 03:23 PM by mvossman.)
(03-26-2024, 11:12 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: Net rating
Doncic/Gafford +9.0
Irving/Gafford -0.1
Doncic/Lively +6.5
Irving/Lively +3.6
Irving/Powell +9.2
Doncic/Powell +0.5
Irving/Kleber +9.4
Doncic/Kleber +7.4
Matches the eyetest. Rim running bigs are at their best when they play next to Luka. Spam high pick and roll on offense and get easy lob/dunk/layup attempts. Powell isn't as athletic as he used to be but he had some great games where he was used as a high post playmaker. Better fit next to an off ball threat like Kyrie.
Kleber is the unicorn. Probably not fair to include him because he is the only big that plays in twin tower lineups. Not always the primary screener on offense. Rim protector on defense.
I think the key net ratings for Maxi:
Maxi/PJ +13
Maxi/Lively +2.6
Maxi/Gafford -5.8
While he is a mixed bag at best as a 4, he is very valuable as a small ball 5 paired with PJ. As good as our two primary centers are, I think we are likely to see even more small ball in the playoffs.
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(03-26-2024, 03:22 PM)mvossman Wrote: I think the key net ratings for Maxi:
Maxi/PJ +13
Maxi/Lively +2.6
Maxi/Gafford -5.8
While he is a mixed bag at best as a 4, he is very valuable as a small ball 5 paired with PJ. As good as our two primary centers are, I think we are likely to see even more small ball in the playoffs.
I agree completely. And, I think this means one of the centers gets their role reduced quite a bit as the rotation shortens. Gafford is winning me over, but part of me is really frustrated that it's starting to feel like that guy whose minutes get reduced is going to be Lively.
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(03-26-2024, 04:07 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: I agree completely. And, I think this means one of the centers gets their role reduced quite a bit as the rotation shortens. Gafford is winning me over, but part of me is really frustrated that it's starting to feel like that guy whose minutes get reduced is going to be Lively.
I can live with this for his rookie year. Might be good that we are not depending on him too much too early.
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(03-26-2024, 04:20 PM)mvossman Wrote: I can live with this for his rookie year. Might be good that we are not depending on him too much too early.
I mean, I get that...but he has surprised me by rising to every single challenge this season. All of them. Part of me resents the stunting of his growth by not letting him trial by fire in the playoffs.
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(03-26-2024, 04:07 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: I agree completely. And, I think this means one of the centers gets their role reduced quite a bit as the rotation shortens. Gafford is winning me over, but part of me is really frustrated that it's starting to feel like that guy whose minutes get reduced is going to be Lively.
What I'm tripping out on, is Gafford never showed anything close to resembling any of this in Washington. He's been a absolute monster since he got here.
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(03-26-2024, 06:21 PM)HoosierDaddyKid Wrote: What I'm tripping out on, is Gafford never showed anything close to resembling any of this in Washington. He's been an absolute monster since he got here.
Maybe it’s just that he’s happy to be on a good team.
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(03-26-2024, 07:00 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: Maybe it’s just that he’s happy to be on a good team.
True dat...
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(03-26-2024, 06:21 PM)HoosierDaddyKid Wrote: What I'm tripping out on, is Gafford never showed anything close to resembling any of this in Washington. He's been an absolute monster since he got here.
Maybe it’s the scheme.
Maybe it’s Jason Kidd.
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These are the top 5 minutes played lineups for the Mavs this season (minus GWill of course)
102 min: Irving - Luka - DJJ - PJW - Gaff 24.7 NetRTG
88 min: Irving - Luka - Green - PJW - Lively 13.0 NetRTG
48 min: Irving - Luka - Green - DJJ - Maxi 28.8 NetRTG
44 min: Irving - Luka - Green - DJJ - Lively 12.3 NetRTG
44 min: Irving - Luka - Green - PJW - Gaff -25.2 NetRTG
6th most used 5-man lineup happens to be a non-Irving one and is quite good
39 min: Exum - Luka - THJ - DJJ - Lively 21.3 NetRTG
Incredibly small sample sizes due to injuries and trades but we finally have a 5-man lineup that's played over 100 minutes on the season.
Nuggets top lineup 895 minutes.
Thunder top lineup 770 minutes.
Wolves top lineup 610 minutes.
Clippers top lineup 539 minutes.
Pelicans top lineup 421 minutes.
Mavs top lineup 102 minutes.
Kings top lineup 669 minutes.
Suns top lineup 395 minutes.
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@coopmavs
National people love to hate on Kyrie, but the respect he has among his teammates is immense. On our post game tonight, Tim Hardaway told how Kyrie has kept after him to keep playing (and shooting) through the hard times. Some major results the last two games
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(03-27-2024, 09:28 AM)Smitty Wrote: These are the top 5 minutes played lineups for the Mavs this season (minus GWill of course)
102 min: Irving - Luka - DJJ - PJW - Gaff 24.7 NetRTG
88 min: Irving - Luka - Green - PJW - Lively 13.0 NetRTG
48 min: Irving - Luka - Green - DJJ - Maxi 28.8 NetRTG
44 min: Irving - Luka - Green - DJJ - Lively 12.3 NetRTG
44 min: Irving - Luka - Green - PJW - Gaff -25.2 NetRTG
6th most used 5-man lineup happens to be a non-Irving one and is quite good
39 min: Exum - Luka - THJ - DJJ - Lively 21.3 NetRTG
Incredibly small sample sizes due to injuries and trades but we finally have a 5-man lineup that's played over 100 minutes on the season.
Nuggets top lineup 895 minutes.
Thunder top lineup 770 minutes.
Wolves top lineup 610 minutes.
Clippers top lineup 539 minutes.
Pelicans top lineup 421 minutes.
Mavs top lineup 102 minutes.
Kings top lineup 669 minutes.
Suns top lineup 395 minutes.
Crazy that it took Mavs 72 games to get a 5 man lineup over 100 minutes.
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Jason Gallagher (@jga41agher)
The fact that Luka has Dallas sniffing the 4/5 seed in the West is crazy given the amount of injuries and roster changes they've endured. There's a lot to consider w/ MVP but that's about a strong a case as any when thinking about someone's literal value to a team.
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Landon Thomas (@sixfivelando)
Since the NBA trade deadline, Mavs rank…
Wins - 3rd
Offensive Rating - 3rd
Defensive Rating - 10th
Net Rating - 4th
Points - 4th
Rebounds- 5th
Blocks - 7th
FG% - 5th
Points in the Paint - 6th
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(03-26-2024, 11:11 AM)Smitty Wrote: A good read.
https://www.dmagazine.com/sports/2024/03...heir-soul/
Thanks for sharing. I waited until after the first game against the Kings before reading it - makes for an even better read!
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(03-27-2024, 10:24 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: Landon Thomas (@sixfivelando)
Since the NBA trade deadline, Mavs rank…
Wins - 3rd
Offensive Rating - 3rd
Defensive Rating - 10th
Net Rating - 4th
Points - 4th
Rebounds- 5th
Blocks - 7th
FG% - 5th
Points in the Paint - 6th Aren't these levels considered contender-level stats?
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(03-27-2024, 02:28 PM)michaeltex Wrote: Aren't these levels considered contender-level stats?
Yes.
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I mentioned it weeks ago, Luka is the most dominant offensive player this year, and it's not close.
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Luka may or may not win an MVP or be elevated into GOAT discussions, but it won’t be because of his offense. He may be the best purely offensive player I’ve seen, comparable to Jordan or Kareem on that end of the floor. But he’s nowhere near those guys on defense, though not so bad that you can’t scheme him into decent defensive matchups.
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