Playoff Rotation

[fifteenth]

Nuggets 2023 Champions:

Joker - 40 mpg
Murray - 40 mpg
Gordon - 36 mpg
KCP - 34 mpg
MPJ - 33 mpg
Brown - 27 mpg
Uncle Jeff - 17 mpg
Braun - 13 mpg

Warriors 2022 Champions:

Klay - 36 mpg
Wiggins - 35 mpg
Steph - 35 mpg
Draymond - 32 mpg
Poole - 28 mpg
Looney - 20 mpg
Porter - 20 mpg
GPII - 17 mpg

Bucks 2021 Champions:

Middleton - 40 mpg
Jrue - 40 mpg
Giannis - 38 mpg
Tucker - 30 mpg
Lopez -29 mpg
Connaughton - 24 mpg
DiVincenzo - 23 mpg
Portis - 18 mpg
Forbes - 14 mpg

Minutes Average (My guess at Mavs player):

1 - 39 mpg (Luka)
2 - 38 mpg (Kyrie)
3 - 36 mpg (PJ)
4 - 32 mpg (Exum/Gafford)
5 - 30 mpg (Exum/Gafford)
6 - 24 mpg (Kleber/DJJ)
7 - 20 mpg (Kleber/DJJ)
8 - 16 mpg (Lively, if healthy)

Those 8 man averages leave 5 minutes unaccounted for.

Lively's health (physical and mental with what he's been through) is obviously a huge X Factor.  The Warriors went deeper into their rotation than the other two with spot minutes for a number of guys.  The Nuggets held very tight to that 8 man group, and also compare most favorably with what the Mavs 8 man group would be.

I think THJ and Green are two guys you go to for some hope of instant shooting (THJ) or a needed burst of energy/hustle (Green).

My guess is that this is pretty accurate. The top 8, plus some minutes from THJ and Green.

[Smitty]

So, I sorted through some lineup data and wanted to come up with a possible playoff rotation. 

There are 6 non-Luka minutes where they can play small ball.
There are 8 non-Kyrie minutes where Exum is on the floor with either Gafford or Lively. I added available lineup data for both.


First half:

Kai______8____Exum___4___        Kai____________12_____________
Green____8____THJ____4___        Green_4___Exum__4__Green_4___
Luka__________12 _________        THJ___4___Luka________8_______
PJW______8____DJJ____4___        PJW___4___DJJ___4__PJW___4___
Live__4_Maxi__4_Gaff___4___        Maxi__4___Live___4__Maxi___4___


Second half:

Kai______8____Exum___4___        Kai____________12______________
Green____8____THJ____4___        Green_4___Exum__4__Green__4___
Luka__________12_ ________        THJ_2__Luka_________10_________
PJW______8____DJJ____4___        PJW___4___DJJ___4___PJW___4___
Live__4_Maxi__4_Gaff___4___        Maxi_2_Live_____6____Maxi___4___


Total minutes:

Kai 40 | Exum 8
Green 32 | THJ 8 | Exum 8
Luka 42 | THJ 6
PJW 32 | DJJ 16
Lively 18 | Maxi 22 | Gafford 8


Luka 42
Kai 40
Green 32
PJW 32
Lively 18 or 26
Maxi 22
Exum 16
DJJ 16
THJ 14
Gafford 8 or 0

How close was I on my prediction 2 months ago...


Luka 44
Kai 40.5
Green 11.5*
PJW 36
Lively 20
Maxi 27
Exum 11
DJJ 25
THJ 11*
Gafford 12

[Scott41theMavs]

How close was I an my prediction 2 months ago...


Luka 44
Kai 40.5
Green 12.5*
PJW 36
Lively 20
Maxi 27
Exum 11
DJJ 25
THJ 11*
Gafford 12

The "Aw, Hell, Let's Just Play Luka the Whole Game" strategy. It's a great one when he plays unreal defense all 44 minutes like he did last night. Not sure how physically or psychologically capable he is of keeping that up.

[Smitty]

The "Aw, Hell, Let's Just Play Luka the Whole Game" strategy. It's a great one when he plays unreal defense all 44 minutes like he did last night. Not sure how physically or psychologically capable he is of keeping that up.

He'll need to play all 48 next game.

Luka On 4.67 NetRtg in 88 minutes
Luka Off -89.74 NetRtG in 8 minutes

An ABSURD +94.4 on/off

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

He'll need to play all 48 next game.

Luka On 4.67 NetRtg in 88 minutes
Luka Off -89.74 NetRtG in 8 minutes

An ABSURD +94.4 on/off

Ironic this is the stat that most MVP voters user to discredit Luka when splitting hairs amongst the top 3 guys.

[GATA]

Green needs to be playing 20+ minutes from here on out

[KillerLeft]

Green needs to be playing 20+ minutes from here on out

He was a -6 last night, 2nd worst, only to Gafford, and missed all of his shots while committing several unintelligent fouls, so naturally I agree. 

In all seriousness, I would keep playing him because I think he's still knocking the rust off and he'll be one of the better catch and shoot guys before too long, but some of your takes are just bananas.

[The Jom]

Guessing:

L 40
K 38
PJ 38
DE 32
20 DG
20 DL
20 DJ
18 MK
16 TH

Not very close after 2 games:

L 44, not 40 (+4)
K 40.5, not 38 (+2.5)
PJ 36, not 38 (-2)
MK 27.5, not 18 (+9.5)
DJ 25, not 20 (+5)
DL 20, exactly (+0)
DG 11.5, not 20 (-8.5)
JG 11.5, not left off the list entirely (+11.5)
TH 11, not 16 (-5)
DE 11, not 32 (-21)

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

One small adjustment I would like to see from Kidd is Exum in early for DJJ to play some minutes with LuKai. We need to get him going and he thrives as the downhill 3rd ballhandler when defenses scramble to guard our stars.

I think Kidd needs to find a way to steal Luka a few more minutes of rest per game. 46, with his workload on both sides of the ball, is insane.

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

He was a -6 last night, 2nd worst, only to Gafford, and missed all of his shots while committing several unintelligent fouls, so naturally I agree. 

In all seriousness, I would keep playing him because I think he's still knocking the rust off and he'll be one of the better catch and shoot guys before too long, but some of your takes are just bananas.

Even with the misses we needed the hustle plays and slight bump in playmaking Green provides us. Especially with Exum m.i.a.

[mvossman]

Ironic this is the stat that most MVP voters user to discredit Luka when splitting hairs amongst the top 3 guys.

This has been Luka MO for years.  His regular season on/off numbers are less than you would think, but his playoff on/off numbers are dominate.  He has another gear in the playoffs.  Once he gets a good enough team around him to truly compete (who knows, maybe this season?) he will likely win one and the MVP votes will flood in the following year.

[mvossman]

With Gafford struggling I wonder if maybe Kidd tries Lively in the starting lineup?

[KillerLeft]

With Gafford struggling I wonder if maybe Kidd tries Lively in the starting lineup?

It shouldn't even be a question, imo. Lively looks like a way better choice against LAC to me.

[KillerLeft]

Even with the misses we needed the hustle plays and slight bump in playmaking Green provides us. Especially with Exum m.i.a.

I don't disagree, just seemed like a crazy statement that dude made after what was one of Green's worst games in a long time.

[Smitty]

With Gafford struggling I wonder if maybe Kidd tries Lively in the starting lineup?

Gafford probably won’t play Friday anyway, so yes Lively would start. Even if Gafford were healthy, he’d be limited and it’s an easy decision for Kidd to make the swap without rocking the boat. The Mavs have their 8-man rotation for Friday and it’s their best 8 so it should be a good one.

Luka | Exum
Kai
DJJ | Green
PJW
Lively | Maxi