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RE: AROUND the NBA: NBA not planning to pause season for COVID - KillerLeft - 01-15-2021
(01-15-2021, 12:49 AM)MFFL Wrote: Luka had 40 points, 11 turnovers, 9 assists, and 7 rebounds last year in the playoffs
Unless you want him to get blocks - that will be... difficult
Great point, thanks. Only points, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals and fouls (because THAT would be an accomplishment) count.
RE: AROUND the NBA: NBA not planning to pause season for COVID - SleepingHero - 01-15-2021
(01-14-2021, 11:54 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: Overall most guys are underperforming, not overperforming but I agree that without Curry and more minutes for better defenders with mediocre percentages the 3-point shooting probably won´t reach last seasons level. That is obviously not great but I think the coaches expected a slight decline when they decided to surround Luka with better defenders.
First off, this is a great post and I like the points you made. But some comments:
(01-14-2021, 11:54 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: Mavs rank 22nd in 3-point percentage.
That they do, however, this is skewed for sure and has a lot of noise. Luka is 2nd in 3PA for the Mavs. His horrid 5/31 start to the season has tanked the Mavs overall 3pt% alone. Taking Luka out puts the Mavs at 13th in the league in overall 3pt% and that's before even approaching Richardson who's our 3rd highest in 3PA. Of course this isn't weighted properly, but more of an exercise to demonstrate that the Mavs overall shooting % is misleading and isn't really indicative of how they've been performing on the season. 2 guys are tanking the stat, while 4-5 guys are overperforming anywhere from 5-10% points. Especially when 4 core rotation guys are shooting above 40% from three so far (THJ, Burke, Maxi, and KP). I do not believe that has ever happened in the history of the NBA. Maybe GSW during the height of Splash town so don't quote me on that.
(01-14-2021, 11:54 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: THJ already was a 7 attempts per game / 40% 3-point shooter last season. Don´t expect a huge decline.
By all accounts, THJ's season last year was an outlier for his career as I've said in the summer. In his 6 seasons before Dallas, his highest 3pt shooting % was his rookie year in NYK where he shot 36.3%. After that he averaged anywhere from 5-7 3PA, with a range of 31.7-35.7. Meaning he was consistently a below average 3pt shooter with high attempts.
Suddenly in his first full season in Dallas he starts shooting 39.8%, and we think that isn't an outlier? Further, in the playoffs/bubble THJ shot a putrid 33% from 3 in a sample size of 14 games. Now after an 8 game stretch where he's nearly shooting 50% from 3 we shouldn't expect a regression? THJ as a player is one of the most hot-cold players there is. Put it this way, I think him playing next to Luka+KP stops THJ from succumbing to his chucker tendencies and that alone bumps him up 3-4% above his 34% 3pt career average, but he is not -and will never be- this flamethrower we're seeing at 45%. It doesn't mean he's bad but we need to be realistic.
(01-14-2021, 11:54 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: DFS: 37.6% last season / 32.6 this season / 33% career 3.3 3PA
Brunson: 35.8 % last season / 31.8% this season / 35% career 2.3 3PA
Richardson: 34.1% last season / 32% this season / 36.2% career 4.5 3PA
Doncic: 31.6% last season / 27.3% this season / 31.8% career 7.9 3PA
Iwundu: 34.1% last season / 14.3% this season / 31.3% career 1.1 3PA
Johnson: 36.3% last season / 28.6% this season / 30.9% career 1.7 3PA
I agree with the core principle of this. However, taking into context of who these players are and how many threes they are shooting, not all of these numbers are of the same importance.
To be fair I'm exhausted and I know that last sentence didn't come out too well, but maybe explaining it this way will get my point across.
Johnson: 36.3% last season / 28.6% this season / 30.9% career- 1.7 3PA for his career.
Iwundu: 34.1% last season / 14.3% this season / 31.3% career- 1.1 3PA for his career.
Even if these guys got to their career averages, they don't take enough volume for it to really matter in the first place. And even then their career averages are actually horrible as well. Which leads me to my next point
Luka isn't that good of a 3pt shooter, and the difference between him making 31% vs. 35% is significant, but not enough to hold a team or offense back. Tim Cato pointed out that last season, Luka would've made about 1 more three per week had he shot 35% versus the 32% he did. If Luka can ever get anywhere near 40% on 7 3PA, NOW we're talking about a huge difference. Like the kind of difference that is instead of making 171 3pt we're talking 200+
DFS has been a below average 3pt shooter for his entire career besides last year (much like THJ to be fair). It's plausible as well that last season was fools gold and he's right back at his career average this year and has regressed. However, I'm more optimistic that DFS returns to his elite shooting given his first 3 years are what really pulling him down, and there isn't enough data yet to be as confident it's a regression. Versus THJ who's entire career is a bit of a rollercoaster ride regarding his 3pt shooting.
(01-14-2021, 11:54 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: Overall most guys are underperforming, not overperforming but I agree that without Curry and more minutes for better defenders with mediocre percentages the 3-point shooting probably won´t reach last seasons level. That is obviously not great but I think the coaches expected a slight decline when they decided to surround Luka with better defenders.
In any case, Kleber(+10%), Burke (+10%), and THJ (+7%), are overperforming more than the guys that are underperforming (and the ones that actually matter, like Luka/DFS/Richardson. Not Iwundu or Johnson). Luka (-5%), DFS(-0.4), and Richardson (-4.2%) will hopefully improve and stabilize, but what I fear is that when those guys do, the 3 dudes that are going supernova are going to stabilize as well and their resulting 3pt% will plummet.
Sorry it got wordy. Late night ramblings tend to make me wordy. But I like your optimism and I really do hope you're right and I am terribly terribly wrong.
RE: AROUND the NBA: NBA not planning to pause season for COVID - KillerLeft - 01-15-2021
(01-15-2021, 01:36 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: By all accounts, THJ's season last year was an outlier for his career as I've said in the summer.
If by "outlier" you mean his best shooting season, I agree. But, it wasn't random, based on "all accounts" that you're ignoring, accounts made by several people around here. His role changed. The quality of his teammates, coaching and offensive system changed.
I don't doubt that he'll cool off some, but ALL shooters go cold sometimes - Curry(s), Hield, Robinson - ALL OF THEM. Sometimes I think the expectations of what constitutes a solid off the catch shooter around here are bananas. When the dust settles on this season, THJ won't be shooting 46% from distance, but he won't be shooting under 38% either, and my bet is that he'll be right around the 40% he shot last year, which, at the volume this team REQUIRES him to empty the clip in order to make the offense work, is REALLY GOOD.
If they move THJ, they'll need to replace him with a similar player. They'll need a wing who works hard off of the ball to get himself open and CREATE 7-12 shot opportunities for himself, even when the opposing defense knows that's his role. This is simply not an ingredient the team can go without and hope to be successful. The chances of that clone being a BETTER version of THJ are slim to none, given that you can count those guys on one hand. Do you think the team can somehow turn THJ into another version of that player type that's BETTER, while simultaneously filling a different hole in the same deal? If not, then what's the upside? I think the chances of moving him and getting worse are extremely likely, and I think the Mavs know that. The second Curry was traded on draft night, I thought THJ's standing here got exponentially more solid, at least unless another Porzingis level deal became available.
Sorry to single your post out, because I know many people feel this way and I just don't understand it. He's a good professional, a good teammate, he wants to be here, and he was one of the most integral pieces of the puzzle that contributed to a playoff birth last season. He's not a one dimensional player. He's defending well. He's MUCH more effective early on this season off of the dribble than he was last year. If anything, I see signs that he's having a BETTER season than he did last year. This is a young(ish) player who is still improving. Still working on his craft.
I'll give you the Clippers series. He didn't give the team enough during those 5 games, but neither did a few others, and it was his first playoff series, too (just like the rest of them). For some reason people ping pong back and forth between Powell and THJ as a scapegoat for everything that doesn't go the Mavs' way. I think it's so bizarre.
RE: AROUND the NBA: NBA not planning to pause season for COVID - juanc - 01-15-2021
(01-15-2021, 01:55 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: If by "outlier" you mean his best shooting season, I agree. But, it wasn't random, based on "all accounts" that you're ignoring, accounts made by several people around here. His role changed. The quality of his teammates, coaching and offensive system changed.AMEN
I don't doubt that he'll cool off some, but ALL shooters go cold sometimes - Curry(s), Hield, Robinson - ALL OF THEM. Sometimes I think the expectations of what constitutes a solid off the catch shooter around here are bananas. When the dust settles on this season, THJ won't be shooting 46% from distance, but he won't be shooting under 38% either, and my bet is that he'll be right around the 40% he shot last year, which, at the volume this team REQUIRES him to empty the clip in order to make the offense work, is REALLY GOOD.
If they move THJ, they'll need to replace him with a similar player. They'll need a wing who works hard off of the ball to get himself open and CREATE 7-12 shot opportunities for himself, even when the opposing defense knows that's his role. This is simply not an ingredient the team can go without and hope to be successful. The chances of that clone being a BETTER version of THJ are slim to none, given that you can count those guys on one hand. Do you think the team can somehow turn THJ into another version of that player type that's BETTER, while simultaneously filling a different hole in the same deal? If not, then what's the upside? I think the chances of moving him and getting worse are extremely likely, and I think the Mavs know that. The second Curry was traded on draft night, I thought THJ's standing here got exponentially more solid, at least unless another Porzingis level deal became available.
Sorry to single your post out, because I know many people feel this way and I just don't understand it. He's a good professional, a good teammate, he wants to be here, and he was one of the most integral pieces of the puzzle that contributed to a playoff birth last season. He's not a one dimensional player. He's defending well. He's MUCH more effective early on this season off of the dribble than he was last year. If anything, I see signs that he's having a BETTER season than he did last year. This is a young(ish) player who is still improving. Still working on his craft.
I'll give you the Clippers series. He didn't give the team enough during those 5 games, but neither did a few others, and it was his first playoff series, too (just like the rest of them). For some reason people ping pong back and forth between Powell and THJ as a scapegoat for everything that doesn't go the Mavs' way. I think it's so bizarre.
The only thing I want to add is that THJ is probably going to get more comfortable now that the Mavs have Porzingis back. KP has his offensive gravity and so does THJ and other teams respect that. That's big for making things easier for Luka.
Oh and the bolded part is HUGE! It's not like every player in the league would have that kind of hustle/energy and great teammate in him.
RE: AROUND the NBA: NBA not planning to pause season for COVID - cow - 01-15-2021
I've long sung the THJ's praises but I still have no clue if he's in the long term plans for this team. Is Luka, KP, THJ, JRich, Maxi and DFS a championship team? That kind of feels like a team that challenges for conference titles but not championships. Can you sign THJ to a contract that is easily tradeable should the opportunity arise? If I'm him, I'm probably going to want to start off at 19M a year (his current salary). Is another team willing to overpay him and try to re-elevate his role like the Knicks did on his last contract or the Mavs did with Parsons/Barnes? TDL is probably our best chance of extracting value from him if he isn't part of the grand scheme.
And while I admire that he's turned himself from a contract dump that was part of the price to get KP into someone who earns that contract, what I start to think about is why couldn't we do that with an even more talented guy. Since Hield is a popular name here, imagine what he could do with Luka's and KP's gravity. Could he be coached up to be a serviceable defender? What would a THJ-like bump make Hield's offensive percentages and numbers? Carlisle has long had success in doing this with the 4/5 spot (Wright, Mahinmi, Powell, now WCS).
RE: AROUND the NBA: NBA not planning to pause season for COVID - SleepingHero - 01-15-2021
(01-15-2021, 01:55 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: If by "outlier" you mean his best shooting season, I agree. But, it wasn't random, based on "all accounts" that you're ignoring, accounts made by several people around here. His role changed. The quality of his teammates, coaching and offensive system changed.
I never meant to convey that I thought the results of THJ's season last year was random. But rather, my main point is that I felt the replicability of those kinds of results this season were low. I cannot disagree with you at all on most of your points. I think the quality of teammates, coaching, and system has all helped THJ. Proof's in the pudding. However, it's just as valid to recognize the archetype of player THJ is and acknowledge his pitfalls.
THJ IS a microwave player (and I know you aren't arguing against that). He can go through stretches where he's barely cracking 30% for 10 games, then turn right around and average nearly 20ppg on 60% shooting. That's who he is and has always been. He takes very difficult shots that sometimes go in and other times we're left bewildered at the TV wondering why he took that with 15s left on the shot clock. So the question is how can we predict the true impact of all these assumed positive factors in leading to another career year for a player that's historically so volatile? To be fair, I don't think there's an easy way, if there is even a way to begin with. And it really all rests on THJ and his mental and the human psyche is a conundrum that can often never be predicted reliably.
If I could put a confidence interval on THJ shooting 40% from 3 this season, I'd put it at 80%. Meaning if this were to happen again, it'd be a 20% random chance of it happening. So in other words I'm not very confident that he can replicate that kind of performance. I mainly say this because historically THJ as a shooter he's been below league average every year besides the one in Dallas. And when the going got tough, THJ reverted to his career averages. Because of this, I don't view him nearly as irreplaceable as you're making him out to be. I believe if THJ puts up another terrible playoff series, the Mavs will probably not even give him a call on July 1st and look elsewhere. Like they've done many times before.
Also, I don't think I've used THJ as a scapegoat for every and any problem the Mavs face. If I've had it's news to me and my bad. I do often, and I believe rightly, point out when THJ invokes the power of the Henny god himself JR Smith and takes low% long 2's while triple teamed and there's 19s on the shot clock. But with Luka+KP on the floor, those are coming fewer and farther between. I also totally 100% agree that THJ is a good professional, fantastic teammate, and his desire to be in Dallas are all amazing positive points that should not be taken for granted. There is a lot of good with THJ. He brings a kind of shot making at the 2 that I don't think the Mavs have had since 2009 Jason Terry. I also feel it's really easy to like him when he's going through a hotstreak like he's in right now, and it's also much easier to move on from him when he's going through a cold streak that reminds you of all his weaknesses (like he did in the bubble/playoffs). It's very possible that the bubble environment affected THJ. It's very possible playoff nerves got the best of him. I guess we'll see how he performs this postseason if the Mavs keep the pace.
With all that said, I don't think there's a clear cut deal right now today that justifies moving THJ. I think Buddy would be close, but Kings are probably looking for a ransom and given THJ's professionalism and general chemistry I've started to cool from that avenue. Beal is the pipedream and would obviously be the KP-like deal we're all lobbying for. So if the Mavs we're to make a trade, THJ wouldn't be on my shortlist initially (contract matching may force it). I see Powell, Brunson, Burke, WCS, Johnson, all much more expendable and available in a trade than THJ. He has made himself at the end of the day a core rotational piece, and a pretty darn good one at that.
RE: AROUND the NBA: NBA not planning to pause season for COVID - khaled1987 - 01-15-2021
(01-15-2021, 04:01 AM)cow Wrote: And while I admire that he's turned himself from a contract dump that was part of the price to get KP into someone who earns that contract, what I start to think about is why couldn't we do that with an even more talented guy. Since Hield is a popular name here, imagine what he could do with Luka's and KP's gravity. Could he be couched up to be a serviceable defender? What would a THJ-like bump make Hield? Carlisle has long had success in doing this with the 4/5 spot (Wright, Mahinmi, Powell, now WCS).
You said it in 1st line "he turned himself"
If Hield comes, he will need to turn himself and get advantage of the situation, that isn't granted and actually far from it.
Hield isn't the kind of guy who will do whatever the coach want, he had problems with 2 coaches before, made it clear he doesn't want to come from the bench.
Yes, there is a chance he might turn better than THJ, but there is also a bigger chance he won't
RE: AROUND the NBA: NBA not planning to pause season for COVID - cow - 01-15-2021
(01-15-2021, 04:43 AM)khaled1987 Wrote: Yes, there is a chance he might turn better than THJ, but there is also a bigger chance he won't
Can I borrow your crystal ball? No one was excited to have THJ here, he was just the price of admission for KP. Hield is just an example so feel free to substitute any name you'd like. I just like my hypotheticals in the realm of possibility.
As far as turned himself, he has and all respect to him, but he also benefits from a coach, scheme and generational talent around him. THJ is always at his worst when he tries to do too much to initiate offense. He still makes head scratching decisions but has toned that down considerably and to an extent, he needs to have that irrational confidence.
RE: AROUND the NBA: NBA not planning to pause season for COVID - SleepingHero - 01-15-2021
(01-15-2021, 04:43 AM)khaled1987 Wrote: he had problems with 2 coaches before
What was the other coach he had an issue with? I've only seen him have friction with Luke Walton, and considering Walton's track record it's hard to blame him.
RE: AROUND the NBA: NBA not planning to pause season for COVID - DallasMaverick - 01-15-2021
Improvement in 3-point shooting is an achievable goal.
Regression to the mean isn't obligatory. He might actually just get better.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2850261-inside-the-development-of-an-nba-jump-shot
RE: AROUND the NBA: NBA not planning to pause season for COVID - fifteenth - 01-15-2021
(01-15-2021, 01:55 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: For some reason people ping pong back and forth between Powell and THJ as a scapegoat for everything that doesn't go the Mavs' way. I think it's so bizarre.
It's because JJB is gone
RE: AROUND the NBA: NBA not planning to pause season for COVID - fifteenth - 01-15-2021
(01-15-2021, 04:39 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: If I could put a confidence interval on THJ shooting 40% from 3 this season, I'd put it at 80%. Meaning if this were to happen again, it'd be a 20% random chance of it happening. So in other words I'm not very confident that he can replicate that kind of performance.
We've all thrown thousands of words at this already.
Sounds like some kind of forum bet is in order!
Mulit poster avatar title bet. Anyone interested chooses their side. We make a thread about it in the contest forum.
Here's the proposal:
THJ shoots >= 38.5%: Losing side takes a to be determined avatar title for the entire 21/22 season.
THJ shoots < 38.5%: Losing side takes a to be determined avatar title avatar title for the entire 21/22 season.
I need some help with the Avatar Title.
Possibilities:
If Team SleepingHero losing: THJ the GOAT's Fanboy
If Team KillerLeft team loses: THJ shoots like DAJ
Not sure if I like my avatar title offerings but I like the bet.
What say y'all?
RE: AROUND the NBA: NBA not planning to pause season for COVID - SleepingHero - 01-15-2021
(01-15-2021, 12:46 PM)fifteenth Wrote: I need some help with the Avatar Title.
Possibilities:
If Team SleepingHero losing: THJ the GOAT's Fanboy
If Team KillerLeft team loses: THJ shoots like DAJ
Not sure if I like my avatar title offerings but I like the bet.
What say y'all?
Absolutely love it. I'm all for it.
RE: AROUND the NBA: NBA not planning to pause season for COVID - Mapka - 01-15-2021
(01-15-2021, 12:46 PM)fifteenth Wrote: We've all thrown thousands of words at this already.
Sounds like some kind of forum bet is in order!
Mulit poster avatar title bet. Anyone interested chooses their side. We make a thread about it in the contest forum.
Here's the proposal:
THJ shoots >= 38.5%: Losing side takes a to be determined avatar title for the entire 21/22 season.
THJ shoots < 38.5%: Losing side takes a to be determined avatar title avatar title for the entire 21/22 season.
I need some help with the Avatar Title.
Possibilities:
If Team SleepingHero losing: THJ the GOAT's Fanboy
If Team KillerLeft team loses: THJ shoots like DAJ
Not sure if I like my avatar title offerings but I like the bet.
What say y'all?
I´m in for the over.
RE: AROUND the NBA: NBA not planning to pause season for COVID - fifteenth - 01-15-2021
(01-15-2021, 01:37 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: Absolutely love it. I'm all for it.
Sweet. Any avatar title suggestions, or do you like the one's I posted?
What says Killer?
RE: AROUND the NBA: NBA not planning to pause season for COVID - mavsluvr - 01-15-2021
(01-15-2021, 04:39 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: I believe rightly, point out when THJ invokes the power of the Henny god himself JR Smith and takes low% long 2's while triple teamed and there's 19s on the shot clock. But with Luka+KP on the floor, those are coming fewer and farther betweenAgree that the chucker moniker for THJ is pretty out of date. He does take difficult shots, but he makes a lot of those, and it is part of his assignment to take and make tough shots when that's what's available. He does a lot of work off the ball to get himself in good position, which is not a skill that many NBA players have perfected, but is required of a player whose primary role is to put up a lot of points. As far as taking shots that are downright bad choices, all the players do it occasionally, but I actually think Tim's shot selection has gotten to be downright respectable at this point, considering his role.
RE: AROUND the NBA: NBA not planning to pause season for COVID - RDB - 01-15-2021
The biggest improvement in 3 Pt shooting for THJ this year (small sample size) is his shooting off pull ups. His catch & shoot is basically the same but the 42% this year is miles ahead of where he has ever been. His previous high was 37%, which was also his worst catch & shoot year (32%). If this is a real improvement, I think it is reasonable to assume he can replicate or improve last years numbers.
RE: AROUND the NBA: NBA not planning to pause season for COVID - mavsluvr - 01-15-2021
(01-15-2021, 01:55 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: If by "outlier" you mean his best shooting season, I agree. But, it wasn't random, based on "all accounts" that you're ignoring, accounts made by several people around here. His role changed. The quality of his teammates, coaching and offensive system changed.
I don't doubt that he'll cool off some, but ALL shooters go cold sometimes - Curry(s), Hield, Robinson - ALL OF THEM. Sometimes I think the expectations of what constitutes a solid off the catch shooter around here are bananas. When the dust settles on this season, THJ won't be shooting 46% from distance, but he won't be shooting under 38% either, and my bet is that he'll be right around the 40% he shot last year, which, at the volume this team REQUIRES him to empty the clip in order to make the offense work, is REALLY GOOD.
If they move THJ, they'll need to replace him with a similar player. They'll need a wing who works hard off of the ball to get himself open and CREATE 7-12 shot opportunities for himself, even when the opposing defense knows that's his role. This is simply not an ingredient the team can go without and hope to be successful. The chances of that clone being a BETTER version of THJ are slim to none, given that you can count those guys on one hand. Do you think the team can somehow turn THJ into another version of that player type that's BETTER, while simultaneously filling a different hole in the same deal? If not, then what's the upside? I think the chances of moving him and getting worse are extremely likely, and I think the Mavs know that. The second Curry was traded on draft night, I thought THJ's standing here got exponentially more solid, at least unless another Porzingis level deal became available.
Sorry to single your post out, because I know many people feel this way and I just don't understand it. He's a good professional, a good teammate, he wants to be here, and he was one of the most integral pieces of the puzzle that contributed to a playoff birth last season. He's not a one dimensional player. He's defending well. He's MUCH more effective early on this season off of the dribble than he was last year. If anything, I see signs that he's having a BETTER season than he did last year. This is a young(ish) player who is still improving. Still working on his craft.
I'll give you the Clippers series. He didn't give the team enough during those 5 games, but neither did a few others, and it was his first playoff series, too (just like the rest of them). For some reason people ping pong back and forth between Powell and THJ as a scapegoat for everything that doesn't go the Mavs' way. I think it's so bizarre.
excellent
RE: AROUND the NBA: NBA not planning to pause season for COVID - Kammrath - 01-15-2021
https://twitter.com/TheSteinLine/status/1350170952391340035
RE: AROUND the NBA: NBA not planning to pause season for COVID - Kammrath - 01-15-2021
https://twitter.com/malika_andrews/status/1350165172703342599