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+--- Thread: 2023 DRAFT: Mavs take Lively, OMP, sign Mike Miles to 2-way, sign Jordan Walker (/showthread.php?tid=2272)
RE: 2023 DRAFT: June 22 - loki - 05-17-2023
I give it a .1% chance they keep the pick. And that only occurs if the guy manning the phone has a stroke while trying to accept a last second draft night offer.
Concern of Luka getting impatient + intent to offer 31 yo Kyrie a max deal means you are all in.
RE: 2023 DRAFT: June 22 | Mavs to pick 10th - Chicagojk - 05-17-2023
Some Emoni Bates combine workout video
https://youtu.be/VH2OySlrJqA
RE: 2023 DRAFT: June 22 | Mavs to pick 10th - ThisIStheYear - 05-17-2023
So basically, 10th picks tends to perform worse than expected, but 11th and 12th picks have been pretty good. Why? I think it’s psychology and cognitive bias. At 10, teams are still taking the consensus player who “falls” to them. It’s a passive mindset. The fallers are falling for a reason. But once you get past the nice round number of 10, teams go hunting for the diamond in the rough. They’re no longer biased by the consensus rankings. And they do better. It’s an active philosophy. The Mavs need to look for the diamond and forget about these consensus guys hoping one may fall.
Or it could all just be small sample size. Either way, I hope on draft night the pundit reaction is that the Mavs reached.
RE: 2023 DRAFT: June 22 - omahen - 05-18-2023
(05-17-2023, 01:55 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: You always make it sound like the Mavs hit significant contributors just because it comes with "has been in the league for a few years"-tag. Cause I can´t really see much in this bank. Am I supposed to be impressed by the turnout of Powell, McGee, Bertans, THJ, Wood, Morris?
They only have the MLE. What makes you think they don´t end up with another Richardson, Wright, McGee or dozens of other glorious ideas? Is the 25th pick from last year any worse than air, cause that´s what is left of that IMMEDIATE PRODUCTION.
This team sucks a** at free agency and trades. The most successful season they had in the last decade was build on four players they drafted or signed as undrafted rookies. Their championship was led by a drafted player and the crucial piece that pushed them over the top was a SL walk-on.
Yet for 30 years Mark Cuban is trying to sell us the exact opposite as a strategy to success.
The solution to become a contender in a short term is not drafting, because you just can't build a contender with rookies. The solution is to get better at trades etc.
RE: 2023 DRAFT: June 22 | Mavs to pick 10th - Chicagojk - 05-18-2023
So who are some trade down candidates. I would love to see Toronto fall in love with a prospect at 10. My ideal is to pick up Precious and 13 for 10. That is a big ask, so they would really need to love someone at 10. He is an RFA after the year though. Would you drop down to 13 for Boucher?
RE: 2023 DRAFT: June 22 | Mavs to pick 10th - DanSchwartzgan - 05-18-2023
(05-18-2023, 07:22 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: So who are some trade down candidates. I would love to see Toronto fall in love with a prospect at 10. My ideal is to pick up Precious and 13 for 10. That is a big ask, so they would really need to love someone at 10. He is an RFA after the year though. Would you drop down to 13 for Boucher?
I don't mind trading down for Precious, but there isn't a logical salary match at the draft. You could make the picks and complete the deal in 23/24. This is where that MLE as a TPE could come into play. Dallas doesn't really have a matching salary for Achiuwa. But, apparently, we could use some of the MLE in a trade under the new rules.
This is an area that there isn't much detail on yet. If a player was traded into cap space, it creates a TPE for the sending team. What happens if a player is traded into another teams MLE?
RE: 2023 DRAFT: June 22 | Mavs to pick 10th - omahen - 05-18-2023
(05-18-2023, 07:38 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I don't mind trading down for Precious, but there isn't a logical salary match at the draft. You could make the picks and complete the deal in 23/24. This is where that MLE as a TPE could come into play. Dallas doesn't really have a matching salary for Achiuwa. But, apparently, we could use some of the MLE in a trade under the new rules.
This is an area that there isn't much detail on yet. If a player was traded into cap space, it creates a TPE for the sending team. What happens if a player is traded into another teams MLE?
I could see some value in Young and Porter. If their salary is included to Achiuwa, there is a match for Bullock. But generally, I don't see any of them as a capable starter on a contender.
RE: 2023 DRAFT: June 22 | Mavs to pick 10th - omahen - 05-18-2023
In general, I could see trade down value with most of teams after Mavs, if they really like a player they could get at 10. We covered Toronto.
#14 Pelicans: Herb Jones or Naji Marshall. Pels have team option on both of them, but Marshall becomes UFA next season if they take it. Not sure how good defender he is. Not sure if Kira Lewis is still in their plans and Temple salary could also be used as a filler to get to Bullock salary.
#15 Atlanta: A deal for Capela. Many possibilities here, but something could be done. Seems like a very natural target for Mavs and Atlanta likely wants to shed his salary. A bit more problematic is how Mavs could help with that goal.
#16 Utah: A bit more difficult as I am not in love with any of their players based on what Mavs need. Pure #10 for #16 and #28, with perhaps minor assets added from Utah.
#17 Lakers: I don't see it very realistic. I would love Vanderbilt and Bamba (needed to create a salary match unless third team is involved). Bullock and #10 would not be a bad outcome for Lakers, if they really like guy at #10. Although, if they really like a guy, we should probably just draft him. They are good at that
#18 Miami: I don't see anything realistic here
#19 GSW: depends a lot on their plans with Green or Kuminga. #10 for Green or Kuminga and #19 seems like a decent start of a deal. Although, their decision about Kuminga might come later in the summer
#20 Rockets: Tate, Garuba for Bullock and #10. Not splashy, but Tate would fit what Mavs need. Throw in minor assets if you feel the offer is light.
#21 and #22 BKN: O'Neale
#23 Portland: I don't see anything unless Portland blows it up and they would help us with Grant SnT (can't be done on draft day anyway)
#26 and #29 Indiana: are they trading Turner?
Kings, Memphis, Clippers and Charlotte at late FRP I don't see anything really interesting.
RE: 2023 DRAFT: June 22 | Mavs to pick 10th - ItsGoTime - 05-18-2023
How about with Mem, agreed at draft but executed in 23/24? I guess there would also have to be a bit of tampering for this to happen, but that would actually make me happy that we finally joined the league in doing that.
Mem in: #10 and Bertans
Dal in: #25, 45 Tillman and SnT Brooks
Looking at Tankathon’s mock Coulibaly goes at 25 and Bates is available at 45.
If we had to use THJ instead of Bertans, I’d want more than Tillman honestly.
RE: 2023 DRAFT: June 22 | Mavs to pick 10th - omahen - 05-18-2023
(05-18-2023, 08:52 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: How about with Mem, agreed at draft but executed in 23/24? I guess there would also have to be a bit of tampering for this to happen, but that would actually make me happy that we finally joined the league in doing that.
Mem in: #10 and Bertans
Dal in: #25, 45 Tillman and SnT Brooks
Looking at Tankathon’s mock Coulibaly goes at 25 and Bates is available at 45.
If we had to use THJ instead of Bertans, I’d want more than Tillman honestly.
I like Brooks. I think the deal represents good value for Memphis. Too good perhaps. One thing to consider - Memphis might be one of main competitors for OG, if he is available. How many of their future picks would be needed to match a #10 offer from Dallas, considering they are likely to remain good for some time? I would be really pissed if they turned #10 into OG.
RE: 2023 DRAFT: June 22 | Mavs to pick 10th - Jakeospikez - 05-18-2023
Already been said a lot but #15 to Atl is definitely a strong possibility. They want to shed salary cause they need to pay some players in 2 years. Mavs can offer the trade up to 10 + Bertans and Bullock which will only be the 5 mil guaranteed to Bertans in 2 years. edit* - Also I am pretty sure they want to move Hunter to 4 for an immediate replacement so they should be eager to move Collins.
I actually prefer Collins over Capela as long as they can find another C that is a decent fit from elsewhere. Really wanted Collins here when we still had KP because that was a good duo imo but maybe they can still make something work. I think Collins' finger is getting a bit better. He shot over 40% from 3 from at the end of the season from March 8 to April 7 which is the biggest scare. 33% in the playoffs (12/36) but that's against Boston and the Miami play in game. Still better than the bad season average.
Getting Turner + Collins would be a really solid 4/5 similar to Collins/KP, but I don't really see how the Pacers dump Turner to the Mavs. There's no replacement for him at pick 10. It would take like the Suns blowing it up and going for a rebuild by trading KD + CP3. Pacers do some crazy multiteam trade where Pacers get Ayton and Mavs get Turner for picks I guess.
Should be plenty of quality draft targets that have been mentioned there at 15. If they really love someone like Hendricks and project him to be a stud then sure take him, but I think he may become someone similar to current Jerami Grant in a few years. Better defensive version of Collins is possible but again will take some time and good development no doubt. It's likely better to get a player at pick 15 and convert Bertans + Bullock salary into a starting front court player immediately than only draft & develop pick 10. Collins contract is bad but if they believe he can shoot again and be better in a different system + not playing with a paint clogging C like Capela (can play with Maxi here vs bench units, maybe pick up someone like Hayes who has a chance to develop his shot as well) then I can see him being a good buy low candidate. Definitely need to come out of this with converting Bertans contract into a starter though.
THJ to a team that needs 3pt shooting really badly should be a strong possibility as well. I would say Cleveland but they don't have any picks to trade back for. Not sure if they would do THJ + 2027 1st for Jarrett Allen since they are trying to win now but I feel like THJ could be easily moved to a team desperate for a quick 3pt shooter for floor spacing. Not really interested in trading #10 just for Allen compared to a trade back personally. Someone at pick 10 or 15 could take over PF/C in a few years and make some contracts moveable for cap savings etc.
RE: 2023 DRAFT: June 22 | Mavs to pick 10th - ItsGoTime - 05-18-2023
(05-18-2023, 09:03 AM)omahen Wrote: I like Brooks. I think the deal represents good value for Memphis. Too good perhaps. One thing to consider - Memphis might be one of main competitors for OG, if he is available. How many of their future picks would be needed to match a #10 offer from Dallas, considering they are likely to remain good for some time? I would be really pissed if they turned #10 into OG.It would suck to have OG join that squad in Mem. (Edit: They will for sure try to find a way with or without our trade. I did wonder about the value. I mean, can we trade 10 for OG? Then SnT for Brooks?) They would have zero use for Bertans though, so they are eating his salary for us in the deal. Turning 1 deadweight player and #10 into 4 players is pretty good. One starter, one bench role player and 2 rookies. One question would be, since the trade happens in 23/24 does the slotted salary for the players count in the deal as well?
RE: 2023 DRAFT: June 22 | Mavs to pick 10th - Chicagojk - 05-18-2023
Iztok with an article that the Mavs should trade the pick
https://www.dmagazine.com/sports/2023/05/dallas-mavericks-nba-draft/
RE: 2023 DRAFT: June 22 | Mavs to pick 10th - Chicagojk - 05-18-2023
My concerns with Wallace are the injury concerns Hollinger's brought up and second is his size. I am team Hardy so I hope he isn't going anywhere. Same with Green. He is probably more valuable right now that we extend him than what he could bring back in a trade. So if we drafted Wallace and resigned Kyrie, we would have 4 of our best players 6'4 and under (Green -who is listed taller but I think he is closer to 6'4, Irving, Hardy and Wallace). That makes our team really small no matter what else we do.
I haven't looked at much of the prospects outside the highlight videos though.
https://twitter.com/MavsDraft/status/1659223316866154505
RE: 2023 DRAFT: June 22 | Mavs to pick 10th - Chicagojk - 05-18-2023
(05-18-2023, 11:17 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: My concerns with Wallace are the injury concerns Hollinger's brought up and second is his size. I am team Hardy so I hope he isn't going anywhere. Same with Green. He is probably more valuable right now that we extend him than what he could bring back in a trade. So if we drafted Wallace and resigned Kyrie, we would have 4 of our best players 6'4 and under (Green -who is listed taller but I think he is closer to 6'4, Irving, Hardy and Wallace). That makes our team really small no matter what else we do.
I haven't looked at much of the prospects outside the highlight videos though. Regardless of size though, the Mavs need tough players. Wallace, per his highlights, looks like one of those players.
https://twitter.com/MavsDraft/status/1659223316866154505
RE: 2023 DRAFT: June 22 | Mavs to pick 10th - ItsGoTime - 05-18-2023
There is no doubt in my mind that if the BPA at 10 is a guard or offense first player, the Mavs will trade down or out.
RE: 2023 DRAFT: June 22 | Mavs to pick 10th - Chicagojk - 05-18-2023
(05-17-2023, 09:57 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: Some Emoni Bates combine workout video
https://youtu.be/VH2OySlrJqA
I love watching workout videos like this. It really gives me an appreciation how good these guys are...even fringe NBA types. Making and staying in the league is so hard. It also shows me how moments like these can really get too big. Have a bad shooting round and it is tough not to let it impact you....even if you are a really good shooter.
Really interesting Bates is in the draft. The first pick is said to be the best prospect since Lebron. 3 years ago they were saying that about Bates. Funny how things change over time.
RE: 2023 DRAFT: June 22 | Mavs to pick 10th - Chicagojk - 05-18-2023
https://twitter.com/PauloAlvesNBA/status/1659272294592659456
Interesting. Raises the very interesting discussion of what Portland would do at 3? I have not really looked at Scoot besides what I read about him in the past. If I think he is a legit all star guard, I think I would move OG for him if I was Portland. OG is really good, but I think I would role the dice with Scoot if that trade was available.
RE: 2023 DRAFT: June 22 | Mavs to pick 10th - StrandedOnBeauboisHill - 05-18-2023
Definitely enough "they're trading the pick" smoke to believe that's what's going to happen regardless of who's there.
What's strange to me is that this team seems to lack pretty basic things, tough defense in the front court and rebounding. Rookies get minutes by playing defense and rebounding and doing their best to knock down shots, why does everyone feel like a rookie doing those things wouldn't help this team in a HUGE way?
I understand that you can whiff with that pick but we also whiffed trading a pick for a vet last year in Wood. Just look at Christian Braun, that roster is 10 times deeper than ours but he's still getting playoff rotation minutes as a rookie. A player of his caliber can be had at 10 and would help us from day 1. The entire rhetoric feels like the front office thinks we're close than we actually are.
Maybe the Luka pressure is real but it really feels like we're going to just continue to mortgage everything and hope for the best and I'm worried about what this franchise will look like 5 years from now because of it. Luka could definitely pull a "Dirk saves all butts" sort of run over the next few years but it seems like poor front office decisions will not lead to saved butts with Luka.
RE: 2023 DRAFT: June 22 | Mavs to pick 10th - loki - 05-18-2023
(05-18-2023, 04:05 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: Definitely enough "they're trading the pick" smoke to believe that's what's going to happen regardless of who's there.
What's strange to me is that this team seems to lack pretty basic things, tough defense in the front court and rebounding. Rookies get minutes by playing defense and rebounding and doing their best to knock down shots, why does everyone feel like a rookie doing those things wouldn't help this team in a HUGE way?
I understand that you can whiff with that pick but we also whiffed trading a pick for a vet last year in Wood. Just look at Christian Braun, that roster is 10 times deeper than ours but he's still getting playoff rotation minutes as a rookie. A player of his caliber can be had at 10 and would help us from day 1. The entire rhetoric feels like the front office thinks we're close than we actually are.
Maybe the Luka pressure is real but it really feels like we're going to just continue to mortgage everything and hope for the best and I'm worried about what this franchise will look like 5 years from now because of it. Luka could definitely pull a "Dirk saves all butts" sort of run over the next few years but it seems like poor front office decisions will not lead to saved butts with Luka.
Look at Wiseman, Kuminga, and Moody in Golden State. Three high draft picks who have contributed very little in the regular season and absolutely nothing in their playoff runs. Rookies get superglued to the bench come playoff time. The Warriors were fortunate to already have a championship caliber roster. Dallas won't be able to overcome a similar draft mistake. It's unicorn or bust if they keep the pick, and bust is far more likely.
Could the guy you trade the pick for also not work out? Sure, but you're going to get a lot more than Christian Wood with a lottery pick.
Edit: Just looked up Christian Braun's numbers in the playoffs. 2.7 ppg in 13 minutes. If this is what Dallas gets out of the 10th pick next year, we will be wishing Luka well in his future endeavors.