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+--- Thread: Finney-Smith at the SF, Improvement in Rebounding (/showthread.php?tid=2236)
Finney-Smith at the SF, Improvement in Rebounding - nash_funk - 07-09-2022
If you look at his 2020/2021 advanced stats, Finney-Smith was far better at SF. Then he played the majority of his minutes in 2021/2022 at PF. The problem is you can't have someone playing 43% of the team's PF minutes with a 14.3 rebounding rate. We were near last in every rebounding category even though Luka is the best rebounder for PGs/SGs/SFs.
I really like that this is now our starting lineup:
PG - Luka
SG - Dinwiddie
SF - Finney-Smith
PF - Wood
C - Mcgee
If you take their per minute rebound numbers and apply it to the player they are replacing in the starting lineup, you come up with 38.64 rebounds. Compare that to last year's starting lineup rebounds of 26.9, we increase by almost 12 rebounds.
RE: Finney-Smith at the SF, Improvement in Rebounding - KillerLeft - 07-09-2022
There’s a significant downside that comes with this line of thinking.
Last year was DFS’s best offensive season, by far. Heck, he was even attacking close outs and dribbling into the paint by the end of the year. Coincidence, or the result of playing the 4 much more, getting more favorable skill matchups? I’d say the latter is a big part of it.
Also, sure, two bigs will lead to better rebounding. If that’s the goal, why don’t more teams go that route? Maybe because two bigs on the floor doubles your chances of giving the opposing offense easy marks to chew up in space?
At the end of the day, rebounding just isn’t as crucial as it was 15 years ago, imho. I get that it can be annoying when we perceive it to be the big issue in a matchup with an opponent, but if you can’t get the defensive STOPS that lead to rebound opportunities, what’s the point?
RE: Finney-Smith at the SF, Improvement in Rebounding - cow - 07-09-2022
(07-09-2022, 03:31 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: Last year was DFS’s best offensive season, by far. Heck, he was even attacking close outs and dribbling into the paint by the end of the year. Coincidence, or the result of playing the 4 much more, getting more favorable skill matchups? I’d say the latter is a big part of it.
Dorian's confidence and reputation as a sniper is the biggest factor to attacking closeouts.
RE: Finney-Smith at the SF, Improvement in Rebounding - KillerLeft - 07-09-2022
(07-09-2022, 03:34 PM)cow Wrote: Dorian's confidence and reputation as a sniper is the biggest factor to attacking closeouts.
Definitely a huge part of the equation. He speeds up his release every year, too (why I think he’s traditionally a slow starter).
But me, personally, I prefer to win as many foot speed/athleticism matchups on the floor as possible. If you can triple down by winning skill matchups, you’re in great shape in my mind. Rebounding is a distant 4th consideration, for me. It’s just how I see things.
RE: Finney-Smith at the SF, Improvement in Rebounding - cow - 07-09-2022
(07-09-2022, 03:46 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: Definitely a huge part of the equation. He speeds up his release every year, too (why I think he’s traditionally a slow starter).
But me, personally, I prefer to win as many foot speed/athleticism matchups on the floor as possible. If you can triple down by winning skill matchups, you’re in great shape in my mind. Rebounding is a distant 4th consideration, for me. It’s just how I see things.
I do think putting the ball on the floor is the next, and maybe last, evolution for him. He's never going to be an elite ball handler but with the proper confidence, he should be able to drive to the cup much more than he does traditionally. I also don't think he'll ever be an elite finisher but he looks so damn smooth some times that I think he can be "good enough".
RE: Finney-Smith at the SF, Improvement in Rebounding - nash_funk - 07-09-2022
(07-09-2022, 03:31 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: There’s a significant downside that comes with this line of thinking.
Last year was DFS’s best offensive season, by far. Heck, he was even attacking close outs and dribbling into the paint by the end of the year. Coincidence, or the result of playing the 4 much more, getting more favorable skill matchups? I’d say the latter is a big part of it.
Also, sure, two bigs will lead to better rebounding. If that’s the goal, why don’t more teams go that route? Maybe because two bigs on the floor double your chances of giving the opposing offense easy marks to chew up in space?
At the end of the day, rebounding just isn’t as crucial as it was 15 years ago, imho. I get that it can be annoying when we perceive it to be the big issue in a matchup with an opponent, but if you can’t get the defensive STOPS that lead to rebound opportunities, what’s the point?
A couple of thoughts...
1. Finney-Smith increased his scoring from 9.8pts to 11.0pts. If EVERYTHING about this increase has to do with more time at PF, is 1.2pts worth even discussing?
2. What does more time at PF have to do with his 1.2pts increase?
RE: Finney-Smith at the SF, Improvement in Rebounding - KillerLeft - 07-09-2022
(07-09-2022, 03:53 PM)nash_funk Wrote: A couple of thoughts...
1. Finney-Smith increased his scoring from 9.8pts to 11.0pts. If EVERYTHING about this increase has to do with more time at PF, is 1.2pts worth even discussing?
2. What does more time at PF have to do with his 1.2pts increase?
It’s not about counting-style stats. It’s about creating advantages that lead to 3 on 2, 2 on 1 opportunities. If you can match your players up with opponents who are slower, less athletic and not as long as yours, DFS (and others) can win you possessions without touching the ball. It’s all about how much the defense has to move, and how early in the process of each possession they have to move.
But to be clear, I never said “everything.” That’s something you added.
The kind of stats called “counting” stats aren’t really all that helpful in situations like this, because this isn’t baseball. If two players who both average 12 rebounds per game are put together on the same team, it’s not as if they’re going to average 24 rebounds per game as a tandem. That’s just not something that any real basketball fan would believe. You can compare counting stats of one player to a player with a similar role on an opposing team - that can be helpful. But within a team, it’s all about skill set fit, play style, chemistry, etc, etc, etc.
RE: Finney-Smith at the SF, Improvement in Rebounding - cow - 07-09-2022
One more think about DFS. He's always known his role on the team but has had some confidence issues on the offensive side of the ball. I think he'll overcome those confidence issues with the team's playoff run along with him garnering some national media attention, league recognition, and a new contract securing his place as a core member of this team. I think he realizes he is a badass now and will finally come into his own completely. He knows he's not that undrafted guy that couldn't hit the long ball anymore nor is a guy on a bargain contract for a team devoid of talent.
RE: Finney-Smith at the SF, Improvement in Rebounding - KillerLeft - 07-09-2022
(07-09-2022, 04:10 PM)cow Wrote: One more think about DFS. He's always known his role on the team but has had some confidence issues on the offensive side of the ball. I think he'll overcome those confidence issues with the team's playoff run along with him garnering some national media attention, league recognition, and a new contract securing his place as a core member of this team. I think he realizes he is a badass now and will finally come into his own completely.
Totally agree.
RE: Finney-Smith at the SF, Improvement in Rebounding - ItsGoTime - 07-09-2022
(07-09-2022, 04:10 PM)cow Wrote: One more think about DFS. He's always known his role on the team but has had some confidence issues on the offensive side of the ball. I think he'll overcome those confidence issues with the team's playoff run along with him garnering some national media attention, league recognition, and a new contract securing his place as a core member of this team. I think he realizes he is a badass now and will finally come into his own completely.I’m very much hoping for this, cause the team could use him being being that much more a threat on offense.
RE: Finney-Smith at the SF, Improvement in Rebounding - KillerLeft - 07-09-2022
(07-09-2022, 04:12 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: I’m very much hoping for this, cause the team could use him being being that much more a threat on offense.
Yes they could.
I believe playing him at the 3 probably gets him a little further from this. Even if I’m way overblowing this whole thing, it at least takes away much of his advantage in transition.
I think he’ll be FINE on defense at the 3. Might be better for the team there, in a vacuum, but not if the guy playing the 4 in his place isn’t quick or agile enough to hang. I don’t want to SAY Wood can’t do it without giving him a chance, but I’m skeptical. Kleber can, so that’s good news.
RE: Finney-Smith at the SF, Improvement in Rebounding - nash_funk - 07-09-2022
(07-09-2022, 04:04 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: It’s not about counting-style stats. It’s about creating advantages that lead to 3 on 2, 2 on 1 opportunities. If you can match your players up with opponents who are slower, less athletic and not as long as yours, DFS (and others) can win you possessions without touching the ball. It’s all about how much the defense has to move, and how early in the process of each possession they have to move.
But to be clear, I never said “everything.” That’s something you added.
The kind of stats called “counting” stats aren’t really all that helpful in situations like this, because this isn’t baseball. If two players who both average 12 rebounds per game are put together on the same team, it’s not as if they’re going to average 24 rebounds per game as a tandem. That’s just not something that any real basketball fan would believe. You can compare counting stats of one player to a player with a similar role on an opposing team - that can be helpful. But within a team, it’s all about skill set fit, play style, chemistry, etc, etc, etc.
Agreed that a glue player like DFS adds more than shows up in the stats. See Draymond.
Speaking of Draymond, don't the GSW start Looney/Green/Wiggins in the frontcourt? How is that unlike Mcgee/Wood/DFS?
(07-09-2022, 04:10 PM)cow Wrote: One more think about DFS. He's always known his role on the team but has had some confidence issues on the offensive side of the ball. I think he'll overcome those confidence issues with the team's playoff run along with him garnering some national media attention, league recognition, and a new contract securing his place as a core member of this team. I think he realizes he is a badass now and will finally come into his own completely. He knows he's not that undrafted guy that couldn't hit the long ball anymore nor is a guy on a bargain contract for a team devoid of talent.
spot on!
RE: Finney-Smith at the SF, Improvement in Rebounding - KillerLeft - 07-09-2022
(07-09-2022, 04:18 PM)nash_funk Wrote: Speaking of Draymond, don't the GSW start Looney/Green/Wiggins in the frontcourt? How is that unlike Mcgee/Wood/DFS?
Oh, it’s not, in some ways. I’d say Green is singular with some of what he brings to the table in terms of versatility on both ends of the floor (can do things Wood 100% can not), and I’d also say that many, many people were shocked that the Mavs couldn’t play Looney off of the floor during that series (they can and DID get McGee benched one round before). But in some ways, you’re right. And, it IS just one possible lineup (for either team).
Only…GS had a litany of other qualified players, representing the choice (actual flexibility, not make believe) to go in other directions if they needed to. The Mavs don’t, in my view.
It’s not that I don’t think they should ever use the two big lineup. I agree, having three viable “bigs” options (last post season they only had two) was a necessary step forward, for all the reasons people claim. I don’t agree that it was a necessary step to reach FOUR, particularly at the sacrifice of adding some of the OTHER things they needed.
RE: Finney-Smith at the SF, Improvement in Rebounding - DanSchwartzgan - 07-09-2022
(07-09-2022, 04:04 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: The kind of stats called “counting” stats aren’t really all that helpful in situations like this, because this isn’t baseball. If two players who both average 12 rebounds per game are put together on the same team, it’s not as if they’re going to average 24 rebounds per game as a tandem. That’s just not something that any real basketball fan would believe. You can compare counting stats of one player to a player with a similar role on an opposing team - that can be helpful. But within a team, it’s all about skill set fit, play style, chemistry, etc, etc, etc.
The same is true of scoring as well...no?
Was DFS a more productive player at PF last season because he was at PF? Or, was it because when he was at SF Porzingis was eating up a bigger share of the offensive load and the opportunities were dramatically diminished? Hard to say with certainty whether it was taking advantage of matchups or his place in the pecking order. He was basically the fourth option in the first half of the season. It could be argued he was the third option the second half of the season when playing with a non-KP big, Bullock and two guards.
I think pretty clearly DFS will return to being the fourth option (a good thing to me) in lineups with Luka, (SD or THJ) and Wood. BTW, DFS was a more productive player offensively at SF than PF in 20-21 (so the opposite of 21-22). In both seasons he defended his position better as a SF.
RE: Finney-Smith at the SF, Improvement in Rebounding - KillerLeft - 07-09-2022
(07-09-2022, 04:29 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: The same is true of scoring as well...no?
Absolutely. Scoring is absolutely a counting stat. Combining scoring averages don’t guarantee increased team scoring. Combining synergetic offensive skills will, which is why we’re all excited about Wood.
Personally, I was more excited about him (on offense AND defense) when I though he’d be a full time center. Said the same thing about Porzingis, and feel I was right about that. To the extent that he could fit here at all, it was better at the 5, imho, and that seems to be what WAS has him playing, too. If he’d have just accepted a role as a pnr screener here (without a clogged paint) we wouldn’t be going through all of this, imo.
RE: Finney-Smith at the SF, Improvement in Rebounding - KillerLeft - 07-09-2022
I think Dinwiddie will be the biggest victim of the two big strategy, especially if he’s starting (can’t even express how dumb I think that would be).
He’s not really a shooter (though he was super hot down the stretch last year) and the reason he was so effective driving the ball and drawing fouls was because of the cavernous space available for exploitation when he was on-ball. Put McGee in the dunker’s spot and most of that evaporates. We saw this for this first month of last season. Remember when Luka couldn’t get into the paint?
RE: Finney-Smith at the SF, Improvement in Rebounding - nash_funk - 07-09-2022
Luka 6'7"
Dinwiddie 6'6"
DFS 6'7"
Wood 6'9"
McGee 7'0"
Curry 6'2"
Thompson 6'6"
Wiggins 6'7"
Green 6'6"
Looney 6'9"
I would argue both Green and Looney play much bigger.
(07-09-2022, 04:43 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: I think Dinwiddie will be the biggest victim of the two big strategy, especially if he’s starting (can’t even express how dumb I think that would be).
He’s not really a shooter (though he was super hot down the stretch last year) and the reason he was so effective driving the ball and drawing fouls was because of the cavernous space available for exploitation when he was on-ball. Put McGee in the dunker’s spot and most of that evaporates. We saw this for this first month of last season. Remember when Luka couldn’t get into the paint?
See, I see it the opposite. Dinwiddie has 5" on Brunson and isn't a drop off in any respect. I think he'll get at least Brunson's minutes and role.
RE: Finney-Smith at the SF, Improvement in Rebounding - burekemde - 07-09-2022
DFS is good, but not great nor amazing. He is not a championship level starter. Where it comes down to is simply lack of multitude of offensive skills. He fits Luka scheme and all of that, fantastic value and teamplayer, able to contribute two ways, and physical. But when it comes down to WCF, the difference in his offensive skills to those of the opponent is going to make the difference. Its really irrespective where he plays. We need more players with offensive bbIQ to make things run smooth. If we cant score, we just cant come back on defense and defend, and we have seen that against GSW. We need better players than DFS to go all the way. Wiggins is clearly a far better player for instance.
RE: Finney-Smith at the SF, Improvement in Rebounding - cow - 07-09-2022
(07-09-2022, 04:55 PM)burekemde Wrote: DFS is good, but not great nor amazing. He is not a championship level starter.
![[Image: worried-get-out.gif]](https://c.tenor.com/kjh5WlufECUAAAAC/worried-get-out.gif)
RE: Finney-Smith at the SF, Improvement in Rebounding - nash_funk - 07-09-2022
(07-09-2022, 04:55 PM)burekemde Wrote: DFS is good, but not great nor amazing. He is not a championship level starter.
Bruce Bowen never averaged above 8.2pts per game. Every championship team has a blue collar guy.