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+--- Thread: ROSTER TALK: Mavs favs for Vogel if no HC job exists. Kyrie handshake deal? (/showthread.php?tid=2173)
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RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - F Gump - 05-21-2023
(05-21-2023, 04:15 AM)Mapka Wrote: I'd rather keep Kyrie than doing this.
That's the Lakers wet dream.
They give nothing and get a Superstar.
Beyond that, I don't think there's an avenue for LA to really fit Kyrie under a hard cap, for practical purposes.
Reaves is a MUST sign for them, almost certainly as a RFA-match. They are out of other options, since they can't offer him more than 12M outright, which also shuts them out of using him as a SNT piece (unless you think he'll accept 12M or less to be sent to play elsewhere).
Once you add Reaves (20?) and Kyrie (40?) to LBJ and AD's existing deals, and add 11 players making minimum, you are at the hard cap or slightly over. Even if they can squeeze in all 4 players, I think they'd see that as a non-starter of a roster.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - Mavs2021 - 05-21-2023
(05-21-2023, 05:44 AM)F Gump Wrote: Beyond that, I don't think there's an avenue for LA to really fit Kyrie under a hard cap, for practical purposes.
Reaves is a MUST sign for them, almost certainly as a RFA-match. They are out of other options, since they can't offer him more than 12M outright, which also shuts them out of using him as a SNT piece (unless you think he'll accept 12M or less to be sent to play elsewhere).
Once you add Reaves (20?) and Kyrie (40?) to LBJ and AD's existing deals, and add 11 players making minimum, you are at the hard cap or slightly over. Even if they can squeeze in all 4 players, I think they'd see that as a non-starter of a roster.
I´m honestly a little too lazy to look into all these new CBA rules, when proposing trades, but since you shut down so many basic trades ideas on it´s general principles, it becomes more and more obvious to me that you´ll have to rely on cheap rookies more and more or there will be a hefty salary correction for the middle of the NBA player pool.
Seems that retaining your own players will become a high priority. Damn that Brunson blunder hurts in so many ways. Don´t trade the 10th pick for a Clint Capela. Sure could be a bust. Could also be PG13, Mikael Bridges, Brook Lopez, CJ McCollum under your control for the next decade.
I also have a feeling some teams will do a Process, reserve 6-7 roster spots (including two-ways) for undrafted/2nd round picks and try to find Covingtons.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - Mavs2021 - 05-21-2023
(05-21-2023, 06:59 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: There are some fans of D-LO here. I am sorry, I just have never seen it. He is fine as a player. At moments, he is very good. But he is the definition of the good player who once you have on your roster, you are always looking to upgrade.
I don´t have much interest in him either, but if it´s a Irving S&T to the Lakers, he´ll have to be in it, unless you think Beasley, Bamba, Vanderbilt plus Schroeder and Walker can get you within Irving´s salary range. I´d prefer that one.
I don´t see much re-direction potential either. I suggested Orlando and that´s where my ideas end. Would Indiana be interested in Russell for McConnell/Theis and their late 1st round picks. Dump some salary rather than sign Russell outright? Hard to imagine. Maybe Houston would be interested, but they can just sign him outright. Could probably swap Russell for CP3 straight up. Going through all the options I´m thinking Russell will actually have a hard time getting paid. How would you feel about Russell at 33/2.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - F Gump - 05-21-2023
(05-21-2023, 06:08 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: I´m honestly a little too lazy to look into all these new CBA rules, when proposing trades, but since you shut down so many basic trades ideas on it´s general principles, it becomes more and more obvious to me that you´ll have to rely on cheap rookies more and more or there will be a hefty salary correction for the middle of the NBA player pool.
Seems that retaining your own players will become a high priority. Damn that Brunson blunder hurts in so many ways. Don´t trade the 10th pick for a Clint Capela. Sure could be a bust. Could also be PG13, Mikael Bridges, Brook Lopez, CJ McCollum under your control for the next decade.
I also have a feeling some teams will do a Process, reserve 6-7 roster spots (including two-ways) for undrafted/2nd round picks and try to find Covingtons.
The new CBA has essentially put all the GMs on strict budgets. Before, the penalties were basically just the economic cost (extra salary, and perhaps tax) for overspending; but now if you spend too much on one guy, you will likely cost yourself the chance to even consider someone else. You literally run out of payroll to spend.
As you note, the Brunson Blunder cuts twice as deep now because he's a player with the lowest max. Those guys who are really good, out of the gate, will reward you financially for probably 10 years of discounted contacts, because at the end of the rookie deal even their max is much lower. And on the other end of the age spectrum, when you pay a max to a guy at the highest salary level, it may cost you two or three guys with talent. Is he worth that?
Making it harder on GMs is the fact that ALL teams may be competing for players in the summer now and spending what they have, as teams will be financially penalized immediately, and each time, when payroll is too small. Although some may just ignore the changed rules and have low payroll anyhow (and pay the penalty), but for those that do, during the season they will no longer have masses of cap room to offer other teams, so you have erased some of the incentive for that path. In essence it becomes a "hard cap"-like limit on the minimum end of the scale too -- ie, there may be teams who can't make trades that reduce payroll, not even temporarily -- which then impacts all their transaction choices that season just like the hard cap will be doing to teams on the upper end.
I think we may see some one year deals for somewhat-bloated numbers, as teams might opt to fill up their required payroll in a way to avoid cluttering their cap in future years.
How will good players respond? The good players may disperse more widely, looking for paydays, rather than sticking to a few teams. Or the good players may be FORCED to disperse, as the "super-teams" may simply run out of money. That may end up having a competitive effect.
I suspect some may use a Process-like teardown to try to create more rookie-scale contracts (as you suggest) on the same team, maybe others try to scatter their money on many mid-tier guys, others may just let it happen like it happens. Who knows.
If I was a GM, one thing I think I would deliberately do, is make my roster shorthanded of well-paid obvious rotation players, and then try to use minutes as an enticement to certain minimum-salary targets. You almost have to imo. Entice the proven veteran with a chance to play a key role on a legit contender (if you can get there), and the promising youngster with an opening for real and meaningful minutes to develop quicker. "And look, we are out of money, you can see the minutes available to someone."
RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - Chicagojk - 05-21-2023
Take it for what it is worth
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10076780-nba-insiders-dish-on-kyrie-irvings-mavs-future-plus-potential-star-trade
RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - omahen - 05-21-2023
(05-21-2023, 04:50 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: Take it for what it is worth
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10076780-nba-insiders-dish-on-kyrie-irvings-mavs-future-plus-potential-star-trade
I know lots of people will not like it, but the Kyrie part seems very realistic. Giving up half of assets Mavs had for a player that can walk in the summer would be crazy even for Mavs. So, it sounds very reasonable promises were made and also, that Mavs were in no position to bargain. Basically same thing as with KP.
The Ayton part is far more speculative, especially around the details, how a deal would look like. But again, there was a lot of smoke from everywhere regarding that one.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - omahen - 05-21-2023
Personally, I am emotionally prepared that whatever Mavs do, will look like an overpay. Mavs are desperate. Teams like Indiana, BKN or Toronto are not, really. They can patiently wait for the right deal to happen. And the "right" deal is a star or a very high pick. #10 pick is nice, but it is far from guaranteed star. So why would they demand less for good players. The only way for Mavs to dream about "buying low" would be, if a player on expiring contract like Siakam, OG or Claxton declares he wants to be traded to Mavs. That would turn away the competition and reduce the price. But players don't tend to do that, really. More usually, they provide a list of interesting teams to them. And there are always teams who can offer either more assets, a higher salary with the next contract or both. Mavs were also never successful in convincing players that Dallas is the top destination for them. They only succeeded that with overpaying (KP, seems Kyrie also). But overpaying options are limited with two stars on board.
What I want to see is, how Mavs will fill the remaining holes after that move. Because they have a C and PF hole as it is, and moving someone like Green would create a hole at the point of attack defender spot.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - DanSchwartzgan - 05-21-2023
(05-21-2023, 05:07 PM)omahen Wrote: I know lots of people will not like it, but the Kyrie part seems very realistic. Giving up half of assets Mavs had for a player that can walk in the summer would be crazy even for Mavs. So, it sounds very reasonable promises were made and also, that Mavs were in no position to bargain. Basically same thing as with KP.
The Ayton part is far more speculative, especially around the details, how a deal would look like. But again, there was a lot of smoke from everywhere regarding that one.
I'm going to continue to hold out some hope. The 3/1 makes sense from Kyrie's side and it is a quote from an agent saying it is his understanding. A four year extension was all he could have gotten in the talks with Brooklyn, and I'm hoping the starting point for Dallas in their 'gentlemen's agreement' at the TDL is improving on the Brooklyn offer. Brooklyn wanted performance stipulations that would have cost Kyrie money if he didn't meet certain criteria. So, the 'Max' part (I'm hoping) could mean without stipulations for the entirety of the amount he agrees to. as opposed to the full max starting at $46.9mm. An extra $7mm or so (with Kyrie getting Luka money) would really help.
It appears the Ayton talk isn't as well sourced as the Kyrie part. It is more of an "I'm hearing there is interest" deal, but once he gets past that, the package part is all speculation. Recall that the son of Hardaway's agent is now in the Phoenix front office. In a deal done in June, THJ/McGee covers the needed salary. If #10 is also involved, it seems it should go to a third party to bring Phoenix a center. If #10 has to go out, I'd rather it end up in Indy with the Pacers also taking McGee. Turner and THJ go to Phoenix. I'd love for Dallas to then get back something from among 26, 29 and 32.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - IamDougieFresh - 05-21-2023
(05-21-2023, 06:29 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I'm going to continue to hold out some hope. The 3/1 makes sense from Kyrie's side and it is a quote from an agent saying it is his understanding. A four year extension was all he could have gotten in the talks with Brooklyn, and I'm hoping the starting point for Dallas in their 'gentlemen's agreement' at the TDL is improving on the Brooklyn offer. Brooklyn wanted performance stipulations that would have cost Kyrie money if he didn't meet certain criteria. So, the 'Max' part (I'm hoping) could mean without stipulations for the entirety of the amount he agrees to. as opposed to the full max starting at $46.9mm. An extra $7mm or so (with Kyrie getting Luka money) would really help.
It appears the Ayton talk isn't as well sourced as the Kyrie part. It is more of an "I'm hearing there is interest" deal, but once he gets past that, the package part is all speculation. Recall that the son of Hardaway's agent is now in the Phoenix front office. In a deal done in June, THJ/McGee covers the needed salary. If #10 is also involved, it seems it should go to a third party to bring Phoenix a center. If #10 has to go out, I'd rather it end up in Indy with the Pacers also taking McGee. Turner and THJ go to Phoenix. I'd love for Dallas to then get back something from among 26, 29 and 32.
Seems to me that the Mavs should just trade for Turner and leave PHX out of it.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - omahen - 05-21-2023
(05-21-2023, 06:49 PM)IamDougieFresh Wrote: Seems to me that the Mavs should just trade for Turner and leave PHX out of it.
Agree. I read somewhere (don't remember where and how reliable), that Phoenix is willing to go forward with a low cost center
RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - F Gump - 05-21-2023
(05-21-2023, 04:50 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: Take it for what it is worth
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10076780-nba-insiders-dish-on-kyrie-irvings-mavs-future-plus-potential-star-trade
Much of the article is transparently speculative, but Pincus is reliable. His thoughts offer a good outside perspective, and at times some legit league whispers too. He knows the CBA and the limits for transactions and stays within them.
The Kyrie thoughts make sense. I don't like the trade thinking he reported on Ayton, because I think it's an over pay for a BLOATED contract, which is an "own goal" on so many levels with a hard cap coming - but unfortunately it does sound like a Cuban idea (THJ, Green, McGee, +10).
But Stein does say the Mavs do NOT really see Ayton as a primary target. So there's hope.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - F Gump - 05-21-2023
(05-21-2023, 06:29 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: 1 The 3/1 makes sense from Kyrie's side and it is a quote from an agent saying it is his understanding. A four year extension was all he could have gotten in the talks with Brooklyn, and I'm hoping the starting point for Dallas in their 'gentlemen's agreement' at the TDL is improving on the Brooklyn offer. Brooklyn wanted performance stipulations that would have cost Kyrie money if he didn't meet certain criteria. So, the 'Max' part (I'm hoping) could mean without stipulations for the entirety of the amount he agrees to. as opposed to the full max starting at $46.9mm. An extra $7mm or so (with Kyrie getting Luka money) would really help.
2 It appears the Ayton talk isn't as well sourced as the Kyrie part. It is more of an "I'm hearing there is interest" deal, but once he gets past that, the package part is all speculation. Recall that the son of Hardaway's agent is now in the Phoenix front office.
3 In a deal done in June, THJ/McGee covers the needed salary. If #10 is also involved, it seems it should go to a third party to bring Phoenix a center. If #10 has to go out, I'd rather it end up in Indy with the Pacers also taking McGee. Turner and THJ go to Phoenix. I'd love for Dallas to then get back something from among 26, 29 and 32.
I like your thinking and your analysis of what to trust is the same I was thinking, but well outlined. Thanks.
1 I too think that the Mavs should have a reasonable shot on Kyrie contract at "same as Luka" rather than the max. That's so reasonable. The fact that the new CBA is bringing essentially a hard cap is a non-threatening way to push back on a full max demand, since reasonable salaries are to Kyrie's advantage IF he wants to play on a team that can contend. Teams with other max-salary talent will ALL face the same hard cap issues (and subsequent contract pricing) when considering another over-$40M deal, so he will face the same issue there as well. The days of "every player that's good gets a max contract" should be over.
2 Yeah. Saw that too. You nailed it.
3 FWIW, there is no timing in which THJ+McGee matches Ayton. But I would not offer 10 anyhow -- I'm not desperate for Ayton and that huge deal. IMO to be getting him at something approaching fair value, Ayton should be priced like KP was, but we'll see what happens. (Not sure but what KP will end up being the much better value to have, ironically, because Ayton's attitude and work ethic are legit question marks that seem bigger to me than KP's injury issues.)
I still hold out hope that 10 - if there's not someone they really reaaaaalllllllllyyyyy like there when it's time to pick - can turn into a pair of picks (with one who gets them Lively) and perhaps a swap of players too.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - KillerLeft - 05-21-2023
(05-21-2023, 06:49 PM)IamDougieFresh Wrote: Seems to me that the Mavs should just trade for Turner and leave PHX out of it.
Was thinking the same thing. If Turner is available, that’s the target. Need to stay as far away from Ayton as possible, imho.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - Jym - 05-21-2023
Most importantly Turner only makes around 20 mil a year the next 2.
Got that big extension but most of it counted against the cap this year
JamesConway912 - JamesConway912 - 05-22-2023
Big YUCK at trading #10
for Turner.
Games played by Turner over the last four seasons:
62
47
42
62
Just not a good target at all due to that. Also nothing special on the court. The moment you dump a lottery pick an allstar or a player with that type of upside should come back. Turner isn’t close to that level.
The idea of the player Turner is is A LOT more inteigueing than the player himself. He barely ever manages to shoot better than 35% from three despite his reputation as a stretch big.
Also just a shitty rebounder.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - DanSchwartzgan - 05-22-2023
(05-21-2023, 06:49 PM)IamDougieFresh Wrote: Seems to me that the Mavs should just trade for Turner and leave PHX out of it.
Maybe so. I don't think such a deal for Turner works as proposed since they have Hield. But, it is easy enough to sub out THJ for someone else on the roster.
I went through my Turner phase about six weeks ago (I actually think he's the most likely Dallas-bound center of all the centers we discuss). But, this week, the news flow is more about Ayton, so that is who I'm focused on right now. Part of my logic is the Sun's FO member who reportedly had interest in THJ when he was in Detroit. I also think Turner/THJ is a fantastic package for Phoenix. But, it presupposes Ayton has move value around the league than many here assume.
I like Ayton more than most. I get squeamish about deals that give up #10 and would love to get him w/o giving up the pick. I think most would agree no deal for Turner is possible without getting #10. Ayton is the better defender and rebounder and we haven't underpaid for a trade since the first Obama term. So, it is hard to imagine we get out of such a deal without giving up the pick. I've been trying to find ways to soften the blow by making it a trade-down instead of a trade-out.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - DanSchwartzgan - 05-22-2023
(05-21-2023, 08:20 PM)F Gump Wrote:
1 I too think that the Mavs should have a reasonable shot on Kyrie contract at "same as Luka" rather than the max. That's so reasonable. The fact that the new CBA is bringing essentially a hard cap is a non-threatening way to push back on a full max demand, since reasonable salaries are to Kyrie's advantage IF he wants to play on a team that can contend.
3 FWIW, there is no timing in which THJ+McGee matches Ayton.
I still hold out hope that 10 - if there's not someone they really reaaaaalllllllllyyyyy like there when it's time to pick - can turn into a pair of picks (with one who gets them Lively) and perhaps a swap of players too.
1. I've noticed you've also been using $40mm in some of your posts. Between that and a S/W of Bertans, the salary situation improves dramatically.
3. What am I missing? $19.6 + $5.4 = $25. $25 x 125% + $100k = $31.35. Ayton is $30.9.
I can understand the sentiment surrounding keeping #10. The potential of some of the players there is enticing. We also have the Giannis history arguing against a trade down (especially if it is strictly a financial move). The Hardy draft gives me hope that maybe Nico is better at this than we give him credit for (or maybe it is just that I watched 'Air' over the weekend). But, there are some high upside (low floor) guys in the mid-first who might be better than the worst of the guys projected to go 5-10.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - omahen - 05-22-2023
(05-22-2023, 07:26 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I like Ayton more than most. I get squeamish about deals that give up #10 and would love to get him w/o giving up the pick. I think most would agree no deal for Turner is possible without getting #10. Ayton is the better defender and rebounder and we haven't underpaid for a trade since the first Obama term. So, it is hard to imagine we get out of such a deal without giving up the pick. I've been trying to find ways to soften the blow by making it a trade-down instead of a trade-out.
I think the simplest way is something like #10 to Utah for #16 and #28. Send #16 to Phoenix with matching salary and keep the #28.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - DanSchwartzgan - 05-22-2023
(05-22-2023, 07:51 AM)omahen Wrote: I think the simplest way is something like #10 to Utah for #16 and #28. Send #16 to Phoenix with matching salary and keep the #28.
Yeah, I remember the first time you suggested Utah’s picks and have always thought that made sense. 21/22 also works, but I’m not as interested in going down that far unless it is part of a bigger deal with a Brooklyn player returning (or somehow using the Brooklyn TPE).
I realize 16 isn’t 10 and many see a sure fire star among the first 9-10 guys. This just feels so much like the DSJ draft to me. Highly touted depth in that draft too and the results didn’t turn out nearly as impressive as the hype.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - dirkfansince1998 - 05-22-2023
(05-22-2023, 09:03 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Yeah, I remember the first time you suggested Utah’s picks and have always thought that made sense. 21/22 also works, but I’m not as interested in going down that far unless it is part of a bigger deal with a Brooklyn player returning (or somehow using the Brooklyn TPE).
I realize 16 isn’t 10 and many see a sure fire star among the first 9-10 guys. This just feels so much like the DSJ draft to me. Highly touted depth in that draft too and the results didn’t turn out nearly as impressive as the hype.
They kinda did. Mavs simply missed out.
#13 Donovan Mitchell
#14 Bam Adebayo
#19 John Collins
#22 Jarrett Allen
#23 OG Anunoby
#27 Kyle Kuzma
#29 Josh Hart
#30 Derrick White
Basically had a 50% chance to hit a starting quality or better player with their first.