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ROSTER TALK: Mavs favs for Vogel if no HC job exists. Kyrie handshake deal? - Printable Version

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RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - omahen - 04-14-2023

(04-13-2023, 04:17 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I thought it was a good conversation too.  Much was McMahon asking Marks about McMahon’s S&T ideas with LAL and Phoenix.  When Tim shut up long enough to listen, Marks made some good points.

I thought the best idea was the Draymond opt-in idea and trade prior to 7/1.  With the new 40% extension rule, Draymond can get extended in the fall for say 2 additional years at $80mm.  He’d play next season at $27.6mm and would get a 3 year average of $36mm.  Green has a somewhat credible free agency threat if GS doesn’t want to pay him that much, so such a deal might be in everyone’s best interest.  Dallas has done this kind of deal before.

We’d be working off of 22/23 salaries, so the outgoing requirement is about $20.56mm.  Mark’s mentioned THJ + Green.  THJ + Hardy also works.  Bertans and McGee works, but you get into ‘why would GS do that’ territory.  GS has #16, so a trade of 10 to 16 might be part of the compensation also.  Personally, I wouldn’t do #10 or Josh Green for Draymond.  Josh solves one of the + defender spots we need to fill.  I could be talked into swapping from 10 to 16 OR sending out Hardy.  I like Hardy, but one of the youngsters has to go unless you can talk someone into taking McGee.  This team needs what Josh does more than it needs what Hardy does.

Now you have Green, Green, Luka and Kyrie starting.  You’ve started to help the D while the Green’s both bring value to an offense.  You still have a pick in 23 to use or trade and the 2027 combined with someone from among Bertans, Reggie, Maxi and McGee to try to add more talent to the roster.  Some of our favorite targets would still be very much in play.  In fact, because Draymond plays multiple positions, you’d have flexibility in terms of what you could target (and you’d still have the TP MLE).  This kind of deal where you end up with two guys and a MLE guy is what I’m hoping for.

I mentioned many times I think Green will be the main target this offseason. Of course, it is just my opinion based on Simmons tweet from a while ago, Greens availability (unless GSW just extends him) and Mavs being in the desperate mode.

GSW position when option to resign Green is not on the table as I see it:
- option A: Green walks and they get nothing (can Green get a FA offer he looks for, since not many good teams have cap space?)
- option B: Green takes his option and stays for one more season (he risks if he can get a good FA offer next season). They keep the core for one more year and perhaps start rebuild afterwards
- option C: make Green good by doing a SnT. But the problems are salaries coming back. They have huge tax bill for additional 20 mil of salaries. Bertans makes zero sense for them, imho. What kind of talent would compensate that huge tax bill for a dead contract? Normal compensation for dumping Bertans to a cap space team would be something in the range of several second rounders or a bad FRP. Mavs have neither. But, GSW tax bill greatly increases the compensation needed for them to take that kind of contract. I don't think putting THJ instead of Bertans would really change the perceptive much, really. So a third team would need to be involved. How much compensation would GSW need with no significant salary coming their way? 

If a third team is included, that is willing to eat Bertans contract. Indiana could be a decent target.

Ind: Bertans, McGee, #10
GSW: Indy #25
Dal: Green, Indy #28

Or perhaps BKN
BKN: Bertans, #10
GSW: Nets #21, O'Neale as Green replacement for one season
Dal: Green, BKN #25 (I have no idea where additional salary from Dallas would go to. If Green is going to GSW, I would want a bit more back)


RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - omahen - 04-14-2023

San Antonio might be a team furthest away from competing, even if they draft Wemby. So the team most willing to sell cap space for assets. Keldon Johnson is also a player I would have a lot of interest in, if San Antonio would be willing to move him. So why not think big.

SA: #10, Mavs 2027 unprotected, Bertans, THJ
GSW: future lottery protected pick from SA
Dal: Johnson, Green

Mavs would have to solve the center question with rMLE. I just don't see anyone I would have any confidence to be better than Powell or Maxi. Alternative is to remove Johnson and one of Bertans/THJ from the equation and Mavs keep one of the picks to solve the center question


RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - DanSchwartzgan - 04-14-2023

(04-14-2023, 05:01 AM)omahen Wrote:  
- option C: make Green good by doing a SnT. But the problems are salaries coming back.  


All good ideas.  I think this might be easier to pull off as an opt-in with the trade occurring prior to 7/1.  It takes a Dallas hard-cap off the table as this is not a S&T.  SA still has 22/23 space if you need a third team with space.

I'm not sure that's necessary.  GSW is going to be well over the $180mm-ish second apron.  They need to replace DiVencenzo and Green without the MLE and with severe limitations.  So, some of what Dallas has to offer may be appealing.  It might better suit them for it to be Maxi/Reggie/Hardy rather than THJ/Hardy when you think about filling holes for them that get to a $20.6mm trade match for Green.  Of course, you also have to deal with the issue of roster slots which could be a challenge.


RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - omahen - 04-14-2023

(04-14-2023, 06:37 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: All good ideas.  I think this might be easier to pull off as an opt-in with the trade occurring prior to 7/1.  It takes a Dallas hard-cap off the table as this is not a S&T.  SA still has 22/23 space if you need a third team with space.


Yeah sorry, I was writing too quickly. I meant Green opting in and then being traded.


RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - ItsGoTime - 04-14-2023

I think SA extended Keldon as their first keeper piece in their rebuild (I think Vassell is their second keeper). He’s still only 23 which is young enough to pair with the next 2-3 years of draftees. They traded Murray cause he was going to be too old by that time.


RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - DanSchwartzgan - 04-26-2023

Writing something about Nic Claxton in another thread got me to thinking.  What is the lowest acceptable level of center you are willing to take and call the offseason a success.  Nico promised D and Rebounding.  I think part of a centers job on D is controlling the paint.  So, I'm looking for good shot blockers too.  Here is a list of players who are top 15% in D, D-Reb and Block% according to EPM (exempting contenders and all NBA types):

Kessler
Gobert
M. Robinson
J. Allen
Claxton
S. Adams
Bassey

Players who get you two of the three in the top 15% (and where they missed the mark on getting all 3):

Capela (D-Rating is 49th percentile)
C Wood (D-Rating is 12th percentile)
Poeltl (D-Rating is 66th percentile)
Zubac (D-Rating is 75th percentile)
M. Williams (D-Rating is 49th percentile)
Azubuike (D-Rating is 47th percentile)
W. Carter (Block % is 64th percentile)
M. Turner (D-Rating is 64th percentile)
Bamba (D-Rating is 44th percentile)
Hartenstein (D-Rating is 76th percentile)

Who am I missing that should be seriously considered (other than Jokic and Bam and AD and Embiid and the like)?


RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - dirkfansince1998 - 04-26-2023

(04-26-2023, 03:32 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Writing something about Nic Claxton in another thread got me to thinking.  What is the lowest acceptable level of center you are willing to take and call the offseason a success.  Nico promised D and Rebounding.  I think part of a centers job on D is controlling the paint.  So, I'm looking for good shot blockers too.  Here is a list of players who are top 15% in D, D-Reb and Block% according to EPM (exempting contenders and all NBA types):

Kessler
Gobert
M. Robinson
J. Allen
Claxton
S. Adams
Bassey

Players who get you two of the three in the top 15% (and where they missed the mark on getting all 3):

Capela (D-Rating is 49th percentile)
C Wood (D-Rating is 12th percentile)
Poeltl (D-Rating is 66th percentile)
Zubac (D-Rating is 75th percentile)
M. Williams (D-Rating is 49th percentile)
Azubuike (D-Rating is 47th percentile)
W. Carter (Block % is 64th percentile)
M. Turner (D-Rating is 64th percentile)
Bamba (D-Rating is 44th percentile)
Hartenstein (D-Rating is 76th percentile)

Who am I missing that should be seriously considered (other than Jokic and Bam and AD and Embiid and the like)?

As far as young bigs go I am looking at the Pistons. Wiseman, Duren and Stewart. With a solid chance that they pick up another big or a big forward in the draft. They simply don´t have enough minutes for all of them.

I also have my personal under the radar picks.

Precious Achiuwa. I guess most of you aren´t interested in another undersized big.
Kai Jones. Advanced stat darling in limited minutes. Def on/off -4.3, DFG% in the paint -17.8%. Looking at EPM he barely misses the cut. 79th percentile on defense. 65th percentile in DREB%. 92th percentile in BLK%.


RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - DanSchwartzgan - 04-26-2023

(04-26-2023, 03:50 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: As far as young bigs go I am looking at the Pistons. Wiseman, Duren and Stewart. With a solid chance that they pick up another big or a big forward in the draft. They simply don´t have enough minutes for all of them.

I also have my personal under the radar picks.

Precious Achiuwa. I guess most of you aren´t interested in another undersized big.
Kai Jones. Advanced stat darling in limited minutes. Def on/off -4.3, DFG% in the paint -17.8%. Looking at EPM he barely misses the cut. 79th percentile on defense. 65th percentile in DREB%. 92th percentile in BLK%.

That's an interesting point.  As fans, should we have an experience/accomplishment expectation?  Is up and coming just another word for cheap or is it an actual strategy to get someone before they prove themselves to be good.

Another thought, do they need to be a 3 point shooter?  A strong roll-man in the PNR?  You certainly aren't getting both along with D, boards and blocks for what we have to offer.


RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - dirkfansince1998 - 04-26-2023

(04-26-2023, 04:18 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: That's an interesting point.  As fans, should we have an experience/accomplishment expectation?  Is up and coming just another word for cheap or is it an actual strategy to get someone before they prove themselves to be good.

Another thought, do they need to be a 3 point shooter?  A strong roll-man in the PNR?  You certainly aren't getting both along with D, boards and blocks for what we have to offer.

As a fan I would prefer a younger option. Even if that goes along with some growing pains. Looking at the way the Mavs operate it´s an unlikely scenario. Typical Mavs move would be a draft day trade for someone like Capela or Turner (more likely Capela, don´t think they have the assets for Turner).

Shooting vs pick and roll is an interesting topic. Looking at synergy numbers Luka is the best pick and roll ballhandler in the league but the volume is down compared to past seasons. Difficult to identify the cause of this. I think one aspect is the way opposing teams defend the Mavs. Sending more double teams. Switching more. Not giving up the easy roll to the rim.
If that is the future of the team and they want to continue to play "Luka ball" spacing is probably more valuable than rim running. Luka (and Kyrie) will continue to play iso ball. A stretch big in the corner provides more value than a big that would clog the paint.


RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - Mavs2021 - 04-26-2023

I think the Mavs should have a two-way approach to C.

1. They need to identify an exception target in FA.
2. They need to have every single map laid out for the Wembanyama destination. That´s by far our best trade bet

He goes to San Antonio --> no center available
He goes to Houston --> call about Sengun
He goes to Detroit --> call about Duren, Wiseman, Bagley III and Stewart
He goes to Orlando --> call about WCJ, BolBol and Isaac
He goes to Indiana --> call about Turner, Theis and Smith
he goes to Charlotte --> call about Williams, Richards and Thor
He goes to Washington --> call about Gafford
He goes to Portland --> call about Nurkic

The bolded options are realistic targets imho, if Wembanyama blocks their path. Orlando or Detroit would be the best winners in terms of options. Washington and Portland would probably be very easy deals to make.

Six deals I could see without destroying our assets.

Bullock for Gafford.
Bullock/McGee for Nurkic.
THJ/Bullock/Powell/2027 unprotected for Turner/McConnell.
THJ/Bullock/2027 unprotected for Hayward/Williams.
Bullock/THJ/Kleber for WCJ/Isaac
THJ/2027 top 4 protected for Wiseman/Bagley III

These ideas floating around the net about Ayton, Allen, Claxton, Kessler are just pipedreams imho. That just ain´t happening.

Something like

Doncic/Hardy
Irving/Green
Hayward/McDaniels
Hendricks/Kleber
Williams/Reed

would be a very very good outcome for the off-season.

I´m prepared to see them turn Green, Hardy, 10th pick and 2027 unprotected into something like Gobert or Draymond.


RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - Chicagojk - 04-26-2023

There are some second round or undrafted guys Mavs need to sniff around as well.  TJD from IU is probably a late first or early second, but if he slips he should be a target.

Maybe I will see him play against pros 5 minutes and realize I am wrong, but I think Edey from Purdue is just not a tall kid.

Daron Holmes is interesting as a two way if he stays in the draft.

Marquette has a big guy who sort of reminds me of the other Jaylen Williams at OKC.  Not sure if he stays in draft.

Colin Castlton is a name I need to watch more of.  3 blocks a game with almost 3 assists.

There are a few others but the Mavs should explore this avenue as well.


RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - ItsGoTime - 04-26-2023

I like Hartenstein, Gafford, Capela, Duren (Stewart is a perfect backup and I hear he’s a darling of that GM) as gettable targets. Most of those names are “get them before they break out” types which I am a big fan of that mentality. 

I really want WCJ as our starter, but he won’t be available unless Orl gets #1, which isn’t out of the question. Been in the league long enough where his numbers are probably sustainable. Can do a little bit of everything. Big enough body to defend the bigger bigs. Quick enough feet to defend on the switch as long as there is some good help behind him.

Turner would be good at the right cost, but I worry about his durability going forward. I also don’t think he’s realistically available unless like with Orl, Ind gets the #1.

I also like the idea of trading down to get Lively and another asset or 2. I figure Lively to be a good backup for a few years, then hopefully step up to start in year 3-4. Which means getting a stop gap C until then (Capela?).


RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - ItsGoTime - 04-26-2023

I also think it’s very likely that Allen is moved this offseason. He would cost a lot though IMO.


RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - Chicagojk - 04-26-2023

(04-26-2023, 04:45 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: I like Hartenstein, Gafford, Capela, Duren (Stewart is a perfect backup and I hear he’s a darling of that GM) as gettable targets. Most of those names are “get them before they break out” types which I am a big fan of that mentality. 

I really want WCJ as our starter, but he won’t be available unless Orl gets #1, which isn’t out of the question. Been in the league long enough where his numbers are probably sustainable. Can do a little bit of everything. Big enough body to defend the bigger bigs. Quick enough feet to defend on the switch as long as there is some good help behind him.

Turner would be good at the right cost, but I worry about his durability going forward. I also don’t think he’s realistically available unless like with Orl, Ind gets the #1.

I also like the idea of trading down to get Lively and another asset or 2. I figure Lively to be a good backup for a few years, then hopefully step up to start in year 3-4. Which means getting a stop gap C until then (Capela?).

I really want to go back and look at Lively more later.  The lack of scoring and scoring nothing in the tournament are really concerning.  But I really think he could have a big jump like Kessler if he went back for his second year in college.  Kessler played very little minutes for UNC his freshman year.  lively is a former top recruit.  Sometimes it takes those guys time to figure things out.  You just need to evaluate if he is one or just a dinosaur big man.

When we played Kessler this year, it was so impressive how you felt his presence anytime someone drove.  Is that Lively in 2 years?  If so, it can be argued he is one of the missing pieces we need.


RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - dirkfansince1998 - 04-26-2023

(04-26-2023, 04:59 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: I really want to go back and look at Lively more later.  The lack of scoring and scoring nothing in the tournament are really concerning.  But I really think he could have a big jump like Kessler if he went back for his second year in college.  Kessler played very little minutes for UNC his freshman year.  lively is a former top recruit.  Sometimes it takes those guys time to figure things out.  You just need to evaluate if he is one or just a dinosaur big man.

When we played Kessler this year, it was so impressive how you felt his presence anytime someone drove.  Is that Lively in 2 years?  If so, it can be argued he is one of the missing pieces we need.

Same. Have no idea how he would look in the NBA. Not sure about the Kessler comparisation. Lively is a way better athlet. Question is if he has the feel/IQ/fundamentals. Kessler on the other hand was always praised for his positioning/timing. Main concern was mediocre athleticism and mobility.
Lively joins a long list of players with top notch athleticism + measurements. Next Clint Capela? Another Moses Brown? Would love to gamble on a player like this but the Mavs don´t have the assets to risk a first round pick for a "maybe" prospect like this.


RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - HAguiar95 - 04-26-2023

Jarrett Allen vaue at a low. 

4 points, 4 rebounds while playing 36 minutes and watching the opposing team's center grab 11 offensive boards (18 total).

Playing next to Mobley made them the best defense, but also made them invisible on offense. Is it Garland/Mitchell's fault?


RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - DanSchwartzgan - 04-26-2023

(04-26-2023, 04:32 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: 2. They need to have every single map laid out for the Wembanyama destination. That´s by far our best trade bet

He goes to San Antonio --> no center available
He goes to Houston --> call about Sengun
He goes to Detroit --> call about Duren, Wiseman, Bagley III and Stewart
He goes to Orlando --> call about WCJ, BolBol and Isaac
He goes to Indiana --> call about Turner, Theis and Smith
he goes to Charlotte --> call about Williams, Richards and Thor
He goes to Washington --> call about Gafford
He goes to Portland --> call about Nurkic


I´m prepared to see them turn Green, Hardy, 10th pick and 2027 unprotected into something like Gobert or Draymond.

I like the #2 idea above.  I’ve also looked at trade down ideas…maybe for a center or maybe for something else and then you take Lively at a more appropriate spot.  You and IGT both mention WCJr which I love.  Seems like a tough get.

As to the Gobert/Draymond comment, it will be interesting to see if the new CBA and new hires change philosophies for the smartest man in the room.  A year ago, I might have agreed with your sentiment.  It just doesn’t seem smart under this new system.  We have two stars.  No one will have three.  So, the real battlefield is going to be getting the best 3 through 7’s you possibly can.  Green and Hardy seem like guys who fit that mold and have upside.  The smart play is to keep them.  10 is a lottery ticket until you put a name next to it.  Virtually no one from last years draft is contributing much on a playoff run right now and plenty of guys taken after Johnny Davis (last years number 10), look better than him.  So, I’m not sure trading down is such a bad idea if it gets us another top seven guy in the process.


RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - SleepingHero - 04-26-2023

(04-26-2023, 04:18 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: As fans, should we have an experience/accomplishment expectation? 


At this point I think we should be vying for guys that can grow into something that we can't actually afford to trade for right now. Hence why I'm lusting after Duren.

Of the guys on your list, we need someone who can defend, rebound, and block shots. Pretty much every single one of them can do that. Some better than others, all better than whatever we have on the Mavs right now. For most centers this is the bare minimum, yet the Mavs FO (read Cuban) has a mental block of ever prioritizing such talents. 

Jarret Allen really piques my interest. He definitely got outplayed by Mitchell Robinson this series, but that shouldn't take away the last 2 monstrous seasons he's had. Just last year he was a first time all-star.

Perfect buy low candidate. I just don't see who Cleveland would realistically want from the Mavs.


RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - IamDougieFresh - 04-26-2023

I see the Cavs looking to add a better wing to their starting lineup. I don't see Allen getting traded, unfortunately.


RE: ROSTER TALK: Kidd- we're going to see new faces. Morris: I'm back nxt year! - ItsGoTime - 04-26-2023

(04-26-2023, 10:16 PM)IamDougieFresh Wrote: I see the Cavs looking to add a better wing to their starting lineup. I don't see Allen getting traded, unfortunately.
I see Allen being traded for that wing, which unfortunately leaves the Mavs out.