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+--- Thread: ROSTER TALK: Mavs favs for Vogel if no HC job exists. Kyrie handshake deal? (/showthread.php?tid=2173)
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RE: ROSTER TALK: Maxi out indefinitely | DFS out at least 2 more weeks - Kammrath - 01-07-2023
(01-07-2023, 10:36 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: You literally said that about 10 games into the season. Has your opinion changed?
There’s no way you could possibly think they are too old to contribute for the next two or three seasons (I’d bet longer), so it can’t be that.
Can you provide my quote on that? I have no memory of saying any such thing.
I think they have both regressed, but I do not think they are "suddenly bad players." I also think they were not that great to start with. Good and solid role players, nothing more. And I also think they will likely be heading down a path of further regression in the years to come.
I think the Mavs need to be building for 2-3 years from now and I do not think DFS or Kleber will be anything but bit bench players by then (and on a great team would only be that anyway). I think the Mavs should sell high on both DFS and Maxi if at all possible. I would have traded them both LAST TDL if I was GMing.
Anyways, I don't think they are "bad" players, I just think they are NBA bench players. And I don't think ANY team should be building around and making their plans around bench players.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Maxi out indefinitely | DFS out at least 2 more weeks - KillerLeft - 01-07-2023
(01-07-2023, 10:43 PM)Kammrath Wrote: I think they have both regressed
I don't, I just think the entire team had an awkward, slow start. This is what "suddenly bad players" meant, btw. You don't walk off the court after the WCF and then "regress" over the remainder of that summer. That's not how it works. So, when you say that, I hear it the way I said it. Because that's the meaning of what you're saying, imo.
And, while I certainly think 2-3 years down the road will be a super important time for obvious reasons, and I in no way want the team to mortgage themselves before then, I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that this year, next year or the year after can't be GREAT.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Maxi out indefinitely | DFS out at least 2 more weeks - Kammrath - 01-07-2023
(01-07-2023, 11:02 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: You don't walk off the court after the WCF and then "regress" over the remainder of that summer.
Happens all the time. Age happens. Habits change. Families grow. Life happens. Regression can be a slow thing, it can also happen in jumps.
DFS in particular is not the same player he was IMO.
And again just because I think they have regressed does not mean one bit I think they are "bad" players.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Maxi out indefinitely | DFS out at least 2 more weeks - KillerLeft - 01-07-2023
(01-07-2023, 11:20 PM)Kammrath Wrote: DFS in particular is not the same player he was IMO.
Well, I think he'll be fine about two weeks after he comes back. He was already hitting those corner threes again before the injury.
He's on my list of keepers.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Maxi out indefinitely | DFS out at least 2 more weeks - cow - 01-08-2023
(01-07-2023, 11:20 PM)Kammrath Wrote: DFS in particular is not the same player he was IMO.
For fun, last years first 31 games versus this year.
PTS: 10.16, 8.39
FGA: 8.4, 7.5
FG%: 44.2, 40
3PA: 5.1, 5.4
3P%: 36.7, .34.5
FTA: 1.19, .8
FT%: 67.5, .64
ORB: 1.64, 1.41
DRB: 3, 2.6
TRB: 4.67, 4
AST: 1.93, 1.16
STL: 1.38, .97
BLK: .52, .54
TOV: .96, .93
PF: 2.3, 1.8
+/-: -9, +16
His numbers are mostly down this year with a few being the same. One less FGA but that isn't enough to offset the scoring delta. The bright side is that his fouls haven't gone way up and I think if he'd fallen off a cliff athletically, he'd be racking up more fouls. Kind of surprised his turnovers aren't higher as he seems to be trying to make more plays this year and his passing can be an adventure. On the flip side, he does seem willing to dribble the ball more and that makes the drop in FTA even more confounding. It's his worst 3P% since his sophomore season. Some of that can be written off as a shooting slump and he can improve those shooting splits pretty easily. Most concerning would be his steal numbers. Funniest stat is the +/-.
I almost want to do the same for Reggie. Maybe Kidd giving Reggie/Dorian the Thibbs treatment and the long playoff run wore some tread off the tires.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Maxi out indefinitely | DFS out at least 2 more weeks - sefant - 01-08-2023
(01-07-2023, 06:38 PM)mvossman Wrote: Its why Green has been so valuable on that end. Its a shame Frank is useless offensively because he would be a great bench point of attack defender otherwise.
I just stumbled on a pretty interesting Josh Green stat for anyone not rating Green's defense
Why i think he is lowkey in the top 5/10 of the most disruptive defenders in the league. There aren't many better point of attack defenders than him imo. I still think Green might already be pound for pound the best defender on the Mavs.
Green's TOV % on/off is currently borderline insane at +5.2 TOV %. Caruso might be the top of the mountain at that, forcing TOs. His on/off is at +5.7 %. Obviously helps that both the Mavs and Bulls are trash at forcing TOs. Grand Theft Alvarado is "only" at 2.2 % for example. Thybulle is very good, but Sixers are already forcing TOs at a decent rate without him.OG is good, but the entire Raptors team forcing TOs. Haha
The difference between the best team at taking care of the ball and the worst team at taking care of the ball is 4.5 TOV %.
1st Raptors at 12.3 % TOV
3rd: Mavs at at 12.7 % TOV
30th: Rockets at 16.8 % TOV
Teams vs. Mavs without Josh Green are at 13.4 % TOV (which is the equivalent of 4th best TOV % in the league, tho Mavs are not really great at forcing any TOs without Green)
Teams against Josh Green Mavs are at 18.6 % TOV, which is basically much worse than the Houston Rockets.
1.8 % TOV worse than the Rockets to be exact. Which is the difference between the best and the 10th best team on top.
Tho basically Josh Green turns the Mavs (and Caruso the Bulls) into a better version of the Raptors by himself at forcing TOs (they are leading the league at turning teams over into a 17.5 % TOV rate).
RE: ROSTER TALK: Maxi out indefinitely | DFS out at least 2 more weeks - Kammrath - 01-08-2023
(01-08-2023, 04:06 AM)cow Wrote: Funniest stat is the +/-
The previous three years DFS has been +4.9, +6.8, +3.8 in on/off....this year -4.0.
It tells the whole story of what I have been seeing with my eyes.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Maxi out indefinitely | DFS out at least 2 more weeks - MarkAguirreWrathofGod - 01-08-2023
I’ve been thinking this injury could be a low key blessing for DFS and have been hoping he comes back with fresher legs. The eye test tells me he isn’t as active, isn’t grabbing as many offensive rebounds and his defense has been down some compared to previous years. Love the guy though and can’t wait to get him back.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Maxi out indefinitely | DFS out at least 2 more weeks - Jason Terry - 01-08-2023
(01-08-2023, 07:48 AM)Kammrath Wrote: The previous three years DFS has been +4.9, +6.8, +3.8 in on/off....this year -4.0.I’m with you. He hasn’t been good. Poor 3pt and free throw shooting. Dumb plays. Less than his usual stellar defense. Not rebounding as well or playing with as much energy.
It tells the whole story of what I have been seeing with my eyes.
Sometimes guys have bad stretches of seasons and turn it around. We’ve seen that before which is why we need a deep team. Dorian(and Bullock) have what it takes to be in a playoff rotation and contribute to winning series. Wings are the hardest to find out there. Best choice is to hope for a turnaround. Which i think will happen down the stretch. Then maybe sell high on Bullock in the offseason after we’ve re-built value. Roll with Green as the point of attack wing defender to compliment DFS and we will be good.
It’s Hardaway that just doesn’t have the skill set we need. Luka, Wood, Dinwiddie all do much more on offense that matters. They can all attack. Hardaway cannot and the league is moving away from those type of players. It would be ok if he did something else like handle the ball/facilitate or offensive rebounds. But he can’t do that either. Maybe we wait till the offseason and give it another playoff chance but if he were to get on a hot stretch the next month i could see it as the first domino to fall. It would make even more sense if Wood doesn’t sign his extension and we NEED to “punt” on the season to set ourselves up going forward. “Punt” and Luka still wills us to the 6th seed for a first round exit.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Maxi out indefinitely | DFS out at least 2 more weeks - cow - 01-08-2023
(01-08-2023, 07:48 AM)Kammrath Wrote: The previous three years DFS has been +4.9, +6.8, +3.8 in on/off....this year -4.0.
It tells the whole story of what I have been seeing with my eyes.
His +/- is ahead of where he was through the first 31 games of last season. This year he is -2.0, not -4.0. -9 last year through 31. My copy past failed to account for his -18 in his final game in my post above. People's views on Dorian are being colored by his new contract which is fair.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Maxi out indefinitely | DFS out at least 2 more weeks - sefant - 01-08-2023
(01-08-2023, 11:35 AM)Jason Terry Wrote: It’s Hardaway that just doesn’t have the skill set we need. Luka, Wood, Dinwiddie all do much more on offense that matters. They can all attack. Hardaway cannot and the league is moving away from those type of players. It would be ok if he did something else like handle the ball/facilitate or offensive rebounds. But he can’t do that either. Maybe we wait till the offseason and give it another playoff chance but if he were to get on a hot stretch the next month i could see it as the first domino to fall. It would make even more sense if Wood doesn’t sign his extension and we NEED to “punt” on the season to set ourselves up going forward. “Punt” and Luka still wills us to the 6th seed for a first round exit.
The major problem is this:
Luka defensive on/off minus 5
paired with
1) THJ defensive on/off plus 0.7
2) SD defensive on/off minus 7.4
And that seems fairly accurate by the eyetest. THJ found out this year that defense exist (at least for now). I guess that is the biggest compliment you can make Kidd/Sweeney over Rick, they helped several players to improve their individual D or just contributions to the team defense.
Spencer having the impact numbers he is having while starting while he is shooting light outs on the C & S and in general is also very concerning. I also don't want to find out what happens if his shooting numbers are going to dip even a few percentage points. If that happening Spencer is taking his air plane and crossing the border of Bullock/McGee country on several stats/metrics.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Maxi out indefinitely | DFS out at least 2 more weeks - Jason Terry - 01-08-2023
(01-08-2023, 02:18 PM)sefant Wrote: The major problem is this:For some reason i keep seeing different on off defensive numbers. I thought Luka was closer to neutral this year.
Luka defensive on/off minus 5
paired with
1) THJ defensive on/off plus 0.7
2) SD defensive on/off minus 7.4
And that seems fairly accurate by the eyetest. THJ found out this year that defense exist (at least for now). I guess that is the biggest compliment you can make Kidd/Sweeney over Rick, they helped several players to improve their individual D or just contributions to the team defense.
Spencer having the impact numbers he is having while starting while he is shooting light outs on the C & S and in general is also very concerning. I also don't want to find out what happens if his shooting numbers are going to dip even a few percentage points. If that happening Spencer is taking his air plane and crossing the border of Bullock/McGee country on several stats/metrics.
Dinwiddie plays almost 100% of the non-Luka minutes and Hardaway plays almost exclusively with Luka. I don’t see how this wouldn’t impact on/off numbers when we struggle so much eith Luka off the floor. I don’t think either player is a positive defensively, especially in isolation. Dinwiddie’s skill set is more needed though. And he’s the better shooter. Hardaway does try harder though. Kind of makes up for his physical limitations
RE: ROSTER TALK: Maxi out indefinitely | DFS out at least 2 more weeks - sefant - 01-08-2023
(01-08-2023, 02:49 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: For some reason i keep seeing different on off defensive numbers. I thought Luka was closer to neutral this year.
Dinwiddie plays almost 100% of the non-Luka minutes and Hardaway plays almost exclusively with Luka. I don’t see how this wouldn’t impact on/off numbers when we struggle so much eith Luka off the floor. I don’t think either player is a positive defensively, especially in isolation. Dinwiddie’s skill set is more needed though. And he’s the better shooter. Hardaway does try harder though. Kind of makes up for his physical limitations
well, the wowy combos are like that. pbstats has Mavs with Luka + SD on the floor at 119.60 DefRtg. And Luka lineups without SD at 109.74 DefRtg. Which is basically best D in the league without SD and worst D in the league with SD.
Luka + SD + THJ (no Wood) -> +6.45 net
Luka + THJ + Wood (no SD) -> +19.92 net
Luka + SD + Wood (no THJ) -> -19.78 net
SD + THJ + Wood (no Luka) -> -10.26 net
And its mainly been defense that causing near insane swings. Luka + SD + Wood (no THJ) looks more like unplayable from a defensive stand point, breaking negative records on D. Maybe Green + DFS could fix that, but SD is causing major trouble with his defense just from a sheer impact stand point. pbstats has that wowy combo at 132.45 DefRtg.
Luka + SD is basically looking like a Luka + Trae pairing without having Trae on the team. And just the major downside of Trae without Trae's offense.
Defense is 100 % the reason why SD's impact looking highly questionable on the data/numbers. He seems to be single handily killing lineups on defense the most out of anyone on the roster.
![[Image: 76rv1j.jpg]](https://i.imgflip.com/76rv1j.jpg)
I wouldn't mind seeing the team without Spencer for 5-10 games if that trend continues. Where you start Luka / Green / THJ / DFS / Wood and experiment with Wright/Hardy/Green handling PG duties.
Its a bold statement but looking at the numbers you could easily make the argument that Spencer as a starter is currently holding this team back the most from a pure ceiling stand point. And he is lowkey one of the worst fits next to Luka from the high minutes guys.
And he is doing way more harm than good when Luka is on the floor. Team defense last season was imo a bigger reason for the success than the Mavs offense. And the s5 had Luka + Brunson + Bullock (the none washed version) + DFS + Kleber. And SD making Brunson look like a a good defender in comparison.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Maxi out indefinitely | DFS out at least 2 more weeks - Ghost of Podkolzin - 01-09-2023
(01-08-2023, 05:43 PM)sefant Wrote: well, the wowy combos are like that. pbstats has Mavs with Luka + SD on the floor at 119.60 DefRtg. And Luka lineups without SD at 109.74 DefRtg. Which is basically best D in the league without SD and worst D in the league with SD.
Luka + SD + THJ (no Wood) -> +6.45 net
Luka + THJ + Wood (no SD) -> +19.92 net
Luka + SD + Wood (no THJ) -> -19.78 net
SD + THJ + Wood (no Luka) -> -10.26 net
And its mainly been defense that causing near insane swings. Luka + SD + Wood (no THJ) looks more like unplayable from a defensive stand point, breaking negative records on D. Maybe Green + DFS could fix that, but SD is causing major trouble with his defense just from a sheer impact stand point. pbstats has that wowy combo at 132.45 DefRtg.
Luka + SD is basically looking like a Luka + Trae pairing without having Trae on the team. And just the major downside of Trae without Trae's offense.
Defense is 100 % the reason why SD's impact looking highly questionable on the data/numbers. He seems to be single handily killing lineups on defense the most out of anyone on the roster.
I wouldn't mind seeing the team without Spencer for 5-10 games if that trend continues. Where you start Luka / Green / THJ / DFS / Wood and experiment with Wright/Hardy/Green handling PG duties.
Its a bold statement but looking at the numbers you could easily make the argument that Spencer as a starter is currently holding this team back the most from a pure ceiling stand point. And he is lowkey one of the worst fits next to Luka from the high minutes guys.
And he is doing way more harm than good when Luka is on the floor. Team defense last season was imo a bigger reason for the success than the Mavs offense. And the s5 had Luka + Brunson + Bullock (the none washed version) + DFS + Kleber. And SD making Brunson look like a a good defender in comparison.
I'd still like to see a large sample size of this starting lineup. I think it's been under 5 minutes played together.
Point - Luka
Guard - Green
Guard - Dinwiddie
Forward - DFS
Center - Wood
IMO it's taking your 3 best players and your 2 best defenders (if DFS regains his defense coming off injury).
RE: ROSTER TALK: Maxi out indefinitely | DFS out at least 2 more weeks - omahen - 01-10-2023
Mavs could start the Siakam movement by hiring his brother as lead assistant or whatever he wants to be
Meet Christian Siakam: Pascal’s brother, aspiring NBA coach and nurturing ‘truth-teller’ - The Athletic
Edit: The article says he is an assistant coach in Raptors 905, so a move to lead coach of the legends or to the Mavs bench would be a considerable promotion
RE: ROSTER TALK: Maxi out indefinitely | DFS out at least 2 more weeks - Kammrath - 01-10-2023
https://twitter.com/All_Things_Mavs/status/1612849611202240512
RE: ROSTER TALK: Maxi out indefinitely | DFS out at least 2 more weeks - Kammrath - 01-11-2023
https://twitter.com/AdamNBorai/status/1613188840990056449
RE: ROSTER TALK: Maxi out indefinitely | DFS out at least 2 more weeks - F Gump - 01-11-2023
Hardaway to MIA?
Hmm. For who? Lowry? Robinson?
RE: ROSTER TALK: Maxi out indefinitely | DFS out at least 2 more weeks - KillerLeft - 01-11-2023
(01-11-2023, 12:45 PM)F Gump Wrote: Hardaway to MIA?
Hmm. For who? Lowry? Robinson?
Gotta be Lowry.
MAAAAAAAYBE they see trouble coming with Tyler Herro's next contract they're trying to avoid. That's possible.
EDIT: Nevermind, he's already signed. I guess he's a possibility, too. Lowry is my guess though.
RE: ROSTER TALK: Maxi out indefinitely | DFS out at least 2 more weeks - omahen - 01-11-2023
THJ for Lowry would not be a bad move imho, if no picks from Mavs are involved. Really not sure why Miami would do it. They need Lowry more than THJ imho.