DRAFT: #18 [Green] & #31 [Terry] & trade for #36 [Tyler Bey]

DRAFT: #18 [Green] & #31 [Terry] & trade for #36 [Tyler Bey] - Printable Version

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RE: DRAFT: Nov 18 (Combine: Sep 28 - Oct 16) | Mavs get #18 & #31 - Scott41theMavs - 10-13-2020

(10-13-2020, 08:54 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote:
(10-13-2020, 03:31 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: And your reasoning about a rookie contributing is just hide-bound dogma.

As for keeping Luka happy, look at the history on Gordon Hayward.

I think your '24-'25 comment is once again overly-dogmatic and extremely naive.

Scott your adjectives crack me up sometimes. Hayward played seven years with Utah. Luka here for seven years takes us to...the end of the 24/25 season.

This is the silly season where draft picks are wildly overvalued. The 18th pick is a lottery ticket...nothing more. We have the 15th pick in what was considered a much better draft on our bench and we can’t wait to get rid of him. But, the 18th pick in this draft is going to be a baller...I just know it. C’mon Man.

I hope you are right and I hope a significant first year contributor falls in our laps. I just don’t see it.

The Heat and the Spurs (and Thunder and Warriors of yore) seemed to have no problem getting very good players the majority of the time.

It's scouting and the accurate evaluation of the player's character. The Mavs have had some excellent hits (seeing the value of Luka; Brunson in second round, DFS) and some horrendous misses (DSJ, although they did a great job of cutting bait; Simba, and highest-paid-second-rounder-ever Roby) in the recent past.

I call complete BS on the draft being a lottery ticket. There's some luck involved, but far more skill. Bad franchises have a much worse draft record than good ones. I think the best comparison is poker or blackjack. I'd lean more toward poker, but could accept some seeing it as blackjack.

In any event, the situation is that the horrendous offseason of 2019 is a "gift" that keeps on giving. The Mavs have one of the best players in the league, a guy who could become a top 20 player if we can keep him healthy, and no trade assets aside from three value guys they should prefer not to get rid of. If the 18th pick doesn't have the value they need it to, they need to nail it and *create* value - not flush it down the dad-burned toilet for powder.

RE: DRAFT: Nov 18 (Combine: Sep 28 - Oct 16) | Mavs get #18 & #31 - Kammrath - 10-13-2020

(10-13-2020, 08:54 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: This is the silly season where draft picks are wildly overvalued. The 18th pick is a lottery ticket...nothing more. We have the 15th pick in what was considered a much better draft on our bench and we can’t wait to get rid of him. But, the 18th pick in this draft is going to be a baller...I just know it. C’mon Man.

RE: DRAFT: Nov 18 (Combine: Sep 28 - Oct 16) | Mavs get #18 & #31 - DanSchwartzgan - 10-14-2020

(10-13-2020, 11:15 PM)Kammrath Wrote:
(10-13-2020, 08:54 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: This is the silly season where draft picks are wildly overvalued. The 18th pick is a lottery ticket...nothing more. We have the 15th pick in what was considered a much better draft on our bench and we can’t wait to get rid of him. But, the 18th pick in this draft is going to be a baller...I just know it. C’mon Man.

Sorry man. Here's some data from a USA Today article last draft: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/2018/06/19/nba-draft-suckers-game-fans-cant-resist-playing/713822002/

"If you look at the numbers, a singular truth emerges: Every NBA Draft will more or less give us a couple future All-Stars, a handful of other starting-level players, a handful more who become role guys and a whole bunch who are never heard from again. There’s some slight variance from year to year, of course, but that’s the template and it really doesn’t change much.

Over a 25-year period from 1990 to 2014, 80 percent of the players drafted No. 1, 2 and 3 have averaged at least 10 points in the NBA. From picks 4-7, it drops to 61 percent. From picks 8-11, you’re down to less than a coin flip chance (42 percent) of finding a double-figure scorer. And then from picks 12-15, it dips all the way to 29 percent."

RE: DRAFT: Nov 18 (Combine: Sep 28 - Oct 16) | Mavs get #18 & #31 - omahen - 10-14-2020

(10-14-2020, 06:48 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: Over a 25-year period from 1990 to 2014, 80 percent of the players drafted No. 1, 2 and 3 have averaged at least 10 points in the NBA. From picks 4-7, it drops to 61 percent. From picks 8-11, you’re down to less than a coin flip chance (42 percent) of finding a double-figure scorer. And then from picks 12-15, it dips all the way to 29 percent."

This is exactly why I think pick has more value before/during the draft. Afterwards, there is a high chance for #18 pick to lose all/most of its value. So if the plan is to move Wright with asset attached, it is probably much better to do it now than wait for TDL. At least we will not get emotionally attached to the guy we would pick Smile

RE: DRAFT: Nov 18 (Combine: Sep 28 - Oct 16) | Mavs get #18 & #31 - Kammrath - 10-14-2020

From 2000-2010 (11 drafts) I looked at the 16-20 picks. Out of those 55 players, 26 of them played a 10 year career or longer. That is 47% of them were good enough to make it in the league for 10+ years, meaning they were at least solid, rotation kind of players.

So let's see:

The chances to hit on the 18th pick with a rotation, 10+ year NBA player? 47%

The chances to win the Powerball Lottery? 0.0000000034%

Is it fair to say the draft is like a lottery ticket?

[Image: giphy.gif]

(10-14-2020, 07:08 AM)omahen Wrote: This is exactly why I think pick has more value before/during the draft. Afterwards, there is a high chance for #18 pick to lose all/most of its value.

I do not think this is accurate.

Do teams like to have the pick so they have control of the scouting and picking process? YES. So the pick is valued when it is "uncashed" so to speak.

Is it possible you draft a total bust with #18? YES. There is a 53% chance that player will not play 10+ years in the NBA. But being a "total bust" is not seen for a number of years. For instance the Mavs turned DSJ (a bust to us) into KP. And the Mavs took a shot on Justin Jackson (a bust to SAC). Teams are always willing to try and "reclaim" players from other teams. Most guys will at least get a solid look for the entirety of their rookie contracts.

Do some guys end up succeeding at #18? YES. Eric Bledsoe was taken #18 in 2010. Mavs fans were clamoring for the Mavs to sign him or trade for him for years. His value became MUCH higher than a generic #18 pick once teams saw who he was.

Point?

Yes, the #18 could lose its value once picked, but it takes a few years AT LEAST for it to be worthless. Also, the #18 pick, if you hit on it becomes worth WAY MORE than it was as just a pick.

Look, if you are looking for superstars, the draft is a LOW percentage undertaking. But if you are looking for rotation, role-players you have a GOOD shot of finding one. And some teams (like SAS did for years around Duncan) see this and simply use the draft to stockpile their team with solid, rotation guys. The Mavs NEED this approach. Just find solid guys in the draft who can be cheap role players.

RE: DRAFT: Nov 18 (Combine: Sep 28 - Oct 16) | Mavs get #18 & #31 - dirkfansince1998 - 10-14-2020

(10-14-2020, 09:12 AM)Kammrath Wrote: Is it fair to say the draft is like a lottery ticket?

A few weeks ago we had a similar discussion and in the modern era we obviously have analysts that give us the numbers. Already posted it once before.

https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what-are-the-odds-to-become-an-all-star-for-each-draft-pick-2d113d6b82e5

https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

https://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

RE: DRAFT: Nov 18 (Combine: Sep 28 - Oct 16) | Mavs get #18 & #31 - Kammrath - 10-14-2020

Funny how my simple analysis (10+ year career) was so close to a more detailed analysis.

The #18 pick according to that 82games.com analysis has a 45% chance to be at least a role player. I said 47% for the whole 16-20 pick range.

Point being, if the Mavs have a 45% or 47% chance to get a role player (or better!) at #18 and have him on a rookie contract, TAKE THAT SHOT! Do not sell it off unless you REALLY get a player you KNOW fits this team getting better.

I should add that according to the 82games.com analysis the #31 pick has a 30% chance of being at least a rotation role player. TAKE THAT SHOT!

RE: DRAFT: Nov 18 (Combine: Sep 28 - Oct 16) | Mavs get #18 & #31 - omahen - 10-14-2020

(10-14-2020, 09:37 AM)Kammrath Wrote: Do not sell it off unless you REALLY get a player you KNOW fits this team getting better.

Does soemone trade for a player he REALLY KNOWS that DOESN'T fit on his roster? Of course you trade for something you think is worth more than the chance you have with the pick. But a proven rotation player is worth more to me than a lottery ticket for something that only may become more.

(10-14-2020, 09:12 AM)Kammrath Wrote: For instance the Mavs turned DSJ (a bust to us) into KP

Or was it perhaps more on the two picks and 30 mil of capspace? I would say that this deal would happen even if Mavs didn't have DSJ to offer

(10-14-2020, 09:12 AM)Kammrath Wrote: And the Mavs took a shot on Justin Jackson (a bust to SAC).

Who of course wasn't the main point of our Barnes dump... I don't think Sacramento was offering 2 first rounders and Mavs picked Jackson as the prize...

RE: DRAFT: Nov 18 (Combine: Sep 28 - Oct 16) | Mavs get #18 & #31 - Kammrath - 10-14-2020

(10-14-2020, 10:24 AM)omahen Wrote: Of course you trade for something you think is worth more than the chance you have with the pick. But a proven rotation player is worth more to me than a lottery ticket for something that only may become more.

I am responding to the notion of using the Mavs draft picks to dump contracts. That is asinine asset management to me.

I am 100% fine using the picks to get a certain GOOD player. I am not fine using the picks to get an average player. Why? Because you almost certainly will be using the picks to get a player NOT on a rookie contract. Your picks will 100% be on rookie contracts.

To me:

Draft pick on rookie contract w/ 47% chance to be rotation player or better >>>>> Average player on non-rookie contract

(10-14-2020, 10:24 AM)omahen Wrote: I would say that this deal would happen even if Mavs didn't have DSJ to offer

That may be true, but it is 100% indisputable that DSJ started basically all of the games he played for NYK after the trade. They didn't trade for him wanting to bury him on the bench. They traded for him thinking he could BE something. He was seen as an asset and a possible reclamation project. He HAD value. I would argue he STILL has value and some team WILL try to reclaim him at least one more time.

RE: DRAFT: Nov 18 (Combine: Sep 28 - Oct 16) | Mavs get #18 & #31 - omahen - 10-14-2020

(10-14-2020, 10:31 AM)Kammrath Wrote: I am responding to the notion of using the Mavs draft picks to dump contracts. That is asinine asset management to me.

Here we agree. I am strictly against dumping salary in 2020 and I don't think Mavs would do it. Why would they? If Giannis wants to come in 2021, they can dump salary then. Dumping it now is just a waste of assets. Keeping options open for 2021 doesn't mean we need to dump salary.

RE: DRAFT: Nov 18 (Combine: Sep 28 - Oct 16) | Mavs get #18 & #31 - Kammrath - 10-14-2020

(10-14-2020, 10:24 AM)omahen Wrote: Who of course wasn't the main point of our Barnes dump... I don't think Sacramento was offering 2 first rounders and Mavs picked Jackson as the prize.

Jackson, like DSJ, was given a significant tryout in DAL. He started 11 games after the trade. The Mavs TRIED to tap into his potential that they still saw from when he was the #15 pick.

Again, my point is that the #15 pick has potential sure....but so does Justin Jackson (as an example of a pick becoming a concrete person) for at least the length of his rookie contract and is not seen as a negative asset all of a sudden on draft day.

RE: DRAFT: Nov 18 (Combine: Sep 28 - Oct 16) | Mavs get #18 & #31 - omahen - 10-14-2020

(10-14-2020, 10:36 AM)Kammrath Wrote: Again, my point is that the #15 pick has potential sure....but so does Justin Jackson (as an example of a pick becoming a concrete person) for at least the length of his rookie contract and is not seen as a negative asset all of a sudden on draft day.

Perhaps not negative, because their contracts are so low and there is some hope left. But certainly not positive. Not to mention there were examples in recent history of teams paying picks to get rid of busts. Like Phoenix with #4 pick Josh Jackson last season. OKC traded #15 Patton and Mavs cut him to sign WCS. Milwaukee and Indy probably can't use Wilson and Leaf other than salary matching.

RE: DRAFT: Nov 18 (Combine: Sep 28 - Oct 16) | Mavs get #18 & #31 - Kammrath - 10-14-2020

(10-14-2020, 10:47 AM)omahen Wrote: Like Phoenix with #4 pick Josh Jackson last season.

Sure this CAN happen.

OR your #4 pick could be Russell Westbrook, NBA MVP (who was recently traded for 2 first rounders and two other pick swaps AND Chris Paul who led the team to the playoffs).

I 100% agree the draft is a risk, but I think it is a risk WORTH taking.

RE: DRAFT: Nov 18 (Combine: Sep 28 - Oct 16) | Mavs get #18 & #31 - Kammrath - 10-14-2020

Another mock:

https://www.si.com/nba/2020/10/14/nba-mock-draft-projections-post-finals

6) Haliburton
10) Achiuwa
12) Vassell
14) SBey
16) Maxey
18) Theo Maledon
20) Hampton
26) Bolmaro
28) Green

31) TBey (HELL YEAH!)
43) Woodard
50) Reed
58) N'Doye

Undrafted) Ty-Shon Alexander

Another mock:

https://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articles/2020_nba_first_round_mock_draft_minnesota_selects/s1__32702996

7) Haliburton
9) Vassell
13) Maxey
15) SBey
16) Achiuwa
17) Hampton
18) Tyrell Terry
22) Green
25) Bolmaro

Another mock:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2913383-nba-mock-draft-2020-predictions-for-onyeka-okongwu-top-frontcourt-prospects

8) Haliburton
9) SBey
12) Maxey
13) Vassell (TRADE UP!)
15) Hampton
16) Achiuwa
18) Green
27) TBey

Another mock:

https://www.barstoolbets.com/blogs/2962422/2020-first-round-nba-mock-draft-1.0-from-the-bmoc

8) Vassell
9) Achiuwa
11) SBey
15) Haliburton (TRADE UP!)
17) Green
18) Maxey
25) Hampton
29) TBey

RE: DRAFT: Nov 18 (Combine: Sep 28 - Oct 16) | Mavs get #18 & #31 - Kammrath - 10-14-2020

(10-14-2020, 02:03 PM)Kammrath Wrote: 18) Theo Maledon

I am not necessarily opposed to Maledon, he is pretty high on my "guard board"....but I am just not a big fan of the Mavs taking a guard at 18.

I think Maledon gives you a lot of unselfish creation, I think his three point shot will translate and improve (35% the last two years), and there are flashes in his defense (he just has to STOP fouling....over 5.0 fouls per 36 mins).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBlwJ2y3gcQ

Updated Ringer mockdraft today:

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/

8) Haliburton
10) Vassell (TRADE UP!)
12) Hampton
14) Achiuwa
16) SBey
18) Green

Quote:Dallas needs to find a wing so it’s not stuck with Seth Curry defending Kawhi Leonard in the playoffs again. Green has a wide draft range, with some teams ranking him as a mid-second-round pick, but he’s viewed highly by others and fits what the Mavs need on paper.

23) Maxey
26) Bolmaro (BUY THIS PICK!)
27) TBey
28) Woodard
29) Maledon

Kevin O'Connor really seems to like a lot of the late first round guys I like. He ranks Woodard #22 on his big board actually ahead of Green. I cannot blame him one bit for that.

RE: DRAFT: Nov 18 (Combine: Sep 28 - Oct 16) | Mavs get #18 & #31 - Aussiebballer - 10-14-2020

Hi All
Question about the 31st pick
If the Mavs take a guy they love and want to sign him to a a 3-4yr deal I believe they need to use part of the MLE to sign a deal longer then 2 yrs.
Which will cause issues if you are competing for a MLE player and you can only offer them $8mil instead of $9mil.

Would the Mavs be better off trading up to 26th with Boston?
Can't see Boston keeping 3 rookies.

Dallas get a player that won't affect the MLE and they control his contract anyway, can keep him for 2, 3 or 4 yrs.
26th pick makes $1.7mil in 2021 so doesn't really affect the 2021 cap-space.

I actually like the depth in this draft and would be happy for the Mavs to buy some more picks.
Even if they grab players like Bolmaro or Maledon and leave them in Europe for a year or 2.

Use 18 on Green or Bane
Trade\buy 26 or 30 from Boston
Draft Bolmaro and T Bey

Would also be happy to buy some 2nd round pick to take a flyer on some players.
Reed, Azubuike, Cassius Stanley, Killian Tillie, Quickley
Could use these guys as 2-way players.

I think now is a great time to invest in the draft to get young players on cheap contracts that can become quality role-players or trade assets.

RE: DRAFT: Nov 18 (Combine: Sep 28 - Oct 16) | Mavs get #18 & #31 - Kammrath - 10-14-2020

(10-14-2020, 05:42 PM)Aussiebballer Wrote: I think now is a great time to invest in the draft to get young players on cheap contracts that can become quality role-players or trade assets.

SO MUCH THIS. This is a deep draft with lots of parity and lots of guys who could be solid role players in the 10-50 range of the draft.

(10-14-2020, 05:42 PM)Aussiebballer Wrote: Question about the 31st pick
If the Mavs take a guy they love and want to sign him to a a 3-4yr deal I believe they need to use part of the MLE to sign a deal longer then 2 yrs.
Which will cause issues if you are competing for a MLE player and you can only offer them $8mil instead of $9mil.

Would the Mavs be better off trading up to 26th with Boston?

I think what you are saying makes sense, but I am by no means the local cap expert. I was wanting them to just straight buy 26 from BOS and keep 31. But if they don't want three rookies I could see buying 26 and trading 31 for a future late first?

RE: DRAFT: Nov 18 (Combine: Sep 28 - Oct 16) | Mavs get #18 & #31 - KillerLeft - 10-14-2020

Face it, Kamm. If they’re trying to move #18, then wanting out of that guaranteed salary slot has to be at least part of the reasoning. I highly doubt they’re looking to buy an ADDITIONAL 1st round pick.

RE: DRAFT: Nov 18 (Combine: Sep 28 - Oct 16) | Mavs get #18 & #31 - Kammrath - 10-14-2020

(10-14-2020, 08:25 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: If they’re trying to move #18, then wanting out of that guaranteed salary slot has to be at least part of the reasoning.

If Cuban didn't learn ANYTHING from the Giannis/Dwight debacle then.....then.....

[Image: 412ca4285bd40089b5aea4eedec4caea.gif]

Keeping #18 is how to SAVE money and still build talent and assets! Dumping it to save $1M in cap room is asinine.

RE: DRAFT: Nov 18 (Combine: Sep 28 - Oct 16) | Mavs get #18 & #31 - KillerLeft - 10-14-2020

Well, maybe they feel they have to move it in order to move something else.

Maybe they flatly don’t think anyone likely to be there can help them.

Maybe they draft someone at #18.

We’ll see.