(09-08-2020, 07:44 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 07:29 PM)Playmaker Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 06:37 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 05:33 PM)Playmaker Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 11:50 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: I think some us are really overrating the impact of a rookie in his 1st season. How many are good enough to make the rotation of a playoff team? How many get a starting spot?
Just take a look at the top 3&D prospects from last years draft. Hunter and Reddish played starter minutes on a terrible Hawks team. They replaced vets like Bazemore and Carter and Hawks fans expected the defense to improve. Now we know that the Hawks had one of the worst defensive teams in NBA history. The drafted wing defenders were big negatives in their first season.
Jarrett Culver played 24 minutes for the Timberwolves. A team that is nearly as bad as the Hawks on defense. He was a liability on offense. Only shooting 30% from 3.

Obviously we also have some positive examples. After a mediocre first half of the season Cam Johnson was great in the bubble games and earned starter minutes. Compared to the regular season Tyler Herro isn´t getting as many minutes but he has proven himself as a reliable shooter.

I think in general my point still stands. If the Mavs want to be a playoff team next season they cannot rely on a rookie to play big minutes or even start.

I think you are forgetting Matisse Thybulle, Kendrick Nunn, Lu Dort, Brandon Clarke, Keldon Johnson, Darius Bazley all played significant minutes for playoff contending teams.  

Impact of rookies can't be overrated or overstated in todays NBA.  As skills training becomes better and better, skills are developed at an earlier age allowing rookies to make an earlier impact than ever.

Dort and Nunn went undrafted. Nunn is only playing garbage time minutes in the playoffs. Dragic replaced him as the starting PG. Dort was great and terrible at the same time. Great defense combined with questionable shooting mechanics.
Keldon Johnson only played 17 games this season and spend most of his time in the g-league. He had some good games in the bubble.
Bazley was a below average role player. Solid defender. Bad on offense.
Thybulle earned his role as a defensive specialist but he is a liability on offense as well.

Not a single high impact starter. Some talented role players but all of them have major flaws. Don´t get me wrong. I would love to have Thybulle or Dort on the roster but I don´t want them to play starter minutes in a playoff series against the Clippers. That´s what some posters expect from a future Mavs 1st round pick.
I get why. The Mavs desperately need 1-2 more starting caliber players and the draft might be a way to get one but I am also realistic. Just take a look at the numbers in the articles that I have linked below.

https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what-are-the-odds-to-become-an-all-star-for-each-draft-pick-2d113d6b82e5

First, what does them being undrafted have to do with anything?  They were still rookies starting on playoff teams.  Moreover, Nunn comes off the bench for Heat in the playoffs after starting a majority of the regular season.  Thats hardly garbage time minutes. He was also hurt or had Covid I believe, causing him to be out before that.   So he is still working himself back into the rotation.

Keldon is ascending player, playing a big role down stretch of the season for a team contending for the playoffs.  Same with Bazley or Thybulle.  Many of these players will be starters as soon as next season.

Regardless this all come down to how you measure impact.  If its going to be by all star appearances, that's an almost impossible measure to grade on.  There are only 24 all star players in a given year.  So of course that it will be hard to find those type of players in a given draft. 

Furthermore, not all impactful players are all stars.  Was Jason Terry an impactful player for the Mavs? How many Allstar games did he play in?

To me impactful players are those who start or get starter minutes off the bench while producing points, rebounds or assists.  Those are readily available in every draft if a team evaluates talent correctly.

At least take a look at the articles before you respond. No point in having any discussion if you aren´t willing to do that. This is not only about allstar games. One of the links has a detailed breakdown that lists the chances to get a star, starter, role player, bust.
I initialy responded to multiple posts that proposed a potential mid first round pick as a starter next season. My response was that it is not very likely that any picked player will be good enough to start on a playoff team in his first year. Most aren´t even good enough to make the rotation of a playoff team.
Not really sure what is controversial about that opinion. Yes some rookies made an impact as solid role players this season. Others did not. On average it´s not very likely that any rookie will meet the expectations of this board. Of course some teams do a better job than others but looking at the Mavs history they aren´t among them.

(09-08-2020, 08:57 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 07:44 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 07:29 PM)Playmaker Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 06:37 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 05:33 PM)Playmaker Wrote: I think you are forgetting Matisse Thybulle, Kendrick Nunn, Lu Dort, Brandon Clarke, Keldon Johnson, Darius Bazley all played significant minutes for playoff contending teams. 

Impact of rookies can't be overrated or overstated in todays NBA.  As skills training becomes better and better, skills are developed at an earlier age allowing rookies to make an earlier impact than ever.

Dort and Nunn went undrafted. Nunn is only playing garbage time minutes in the playoffs. Dragic replaced him as the starting PG. Dort was great and terrible at the same time. Great defense combined with questionable shooting mechanics.
Keldon Johnson only played 17 games this season and spend most of his time in the g-league. He had some good games in the bubble.
Bazley was a below average role player. Solid defender. Bad on offense.
Thybulle earned his role as a defensive specialist but he is a liability on offense as well.

Not a single high impact starter. Some talented role players but all of them have major flaws. Don´t get me wrong. I would love to have Thybulle or Dort on the roster but I don´t want them to play starter minutes in a playoff series against the Clippers. That´s what some posters expect from a future Mavs 1st round pick.
I get why. The Mavs desperately need 1-2 more starting caliber players and the draft might be a way to get one but I am also realistic. Just take a look at the numbers in the articles that I have linked below.

https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what-are-the-odds-to-become-an-all-star-for-each-draft-pick-2d113d6b82e5

First, what does them being undrafted have to do with anything?  They were still rookies starting on playoff teams.  Moreover, Nunn comes off the bench for Heat in the playoffs after starting a majority of the regular season.  Thats hardly garbage time minutes. He was also hurt or had Covid I believe, causing him to be out before that.  So he is still working himself back into the rotation.

Keldon is ascending player, playing a big role down stretch of the season for a team contending for the playoffs.  Same with Bazley or Thybulle.  Many of these players will be starters as soon as next season.

Regardless this all come down to how you measure impact.  If its going to be by all star appearances, that's an almost impossible measure to grade on.  There are only 24 all star players in a given year.  So of course that it will be hard to find those type of players in a given draft. 

Furthermore, not all impactful players are all stars.  Was Jason Terry an impactful player for the Mavs? How many Allstar games did he play in?

To me impactful players are those who start or get starter minutes off the bench while producing points, rebounds or assists.  Those are readily available in every draft if a team evaluates talent correctly.

At least take a look at the articles before you respond. No point in having any discussion if you aren´t willing to do that. This is not only about allstar games. One of the links has a detailed breakdown that lists the chances to get a star, starter, role player, bust.
I initialy responded to multiple posts that proposed a potential mid first round pick as a starter next season. My response was that it is not very likely that any picked player will be good enough to start on a playoff team in his first year. Most aren´t even good enough to make the rotation of a playoff team.
Not really sure what is controversial about that opinion. Yes some rookies made an impact as solid role players this season. Others did not. On average it´s not very likely that any rookie will meet the expectations of this board. Of course some teams do a better job than others but looking at the Mavs history they aren´t among them.

Our positions are actually not that far apart. As I responded to you, if the Mavs don't have a moral assurance that the guy they would draft can be a playoff rotational (top 8 on the team in minutes) player next year while starting during the regular season (i.e., a Nunn-like profile), then it would be dumb-assed of them not to trade their pick. They need to improve the starting lineup bigtime. As I've said several times, it all comes down to letting Luka know, season by season, and in the most absolute of terms yes including next season, that they are far more serious about putting a winning team around him than the Bucks were with Giannis.

(09-13-2020, 12:25 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: In a sane world Mavs have all the ammunition to shore up this roster without an additional star. #18, #31 could be used for 2 wings, at least one of them likely to contribute within a year or two. Wright would be traded for *something* more useful. MLE could be used for 1 or 2 good players with starting potential including an attempt to keep Burke. 

The beauty of #18 and #31 is if you pick right you get good, cheap rotational players for years to come. You could probably do that and still do Plan Powder, Nuclear Winter all at once if you can unload Wright's contract without using up one of those picks. A first round pick will not eat into the cap much, certainly it will eat up much less in 2021 than Wright. Wright is almost 9 mil in 2021, and our pick would be around 3 mil against the cap.

At any rate I don't think the Mavs will go that route and instead find a way to not draft a player with #18.

(09-13-2020, 01:41 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: @DanSchwartzman is the MVP of this team. My dude needs more shots, and the rest of us just need to rebound and play D.

(09-13-2020, 01:56 PM)Kammrath Wrote:

(09-13-2020, 01:41 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: @DanSchwartzman is the MVP of this team. My dude needs more shots, and the rest of us just need to rebound and play D.

He needs a usage rate like Luka....like 36 or 37%. It would be better for the whole team.

(09-13-2020, 01:57 PM)KillerLeft Wrote:

(09-13-2020, 01:56 PM)Kammrath Wrote:

(09-13-2020, 01:41 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: @DanSchwartzman is the MVP of this team. My dude needs more shots, and the rest of us just need to rebound and play D.

He needs a usage rate like Luka....like 36 or 37%. It would be better for the whole team.

Oh yeah. AND more minutes. 

Personally, I'd like to see more of those Dan/Kamm spread pick and rolls.

(09-13-2020, 08:11 PM)903Mavs Wrote: I know the NFL has charts that show that a third rounder plus a second rounder should net a certain pick. 
Not sure how far 31 can help the cause, but maybe up to 13 or 14?

(09-14-2020, 03:48 PM)Mavs2019 Wrote: KOC´s first Ringer mock draft has us taking Saddiq Bey at #18.

(09-14-2020, 03:48 PM)Mavs2019 Wrote: KOC´s first Ringer mock draft has us taking Saddiq Bey at #18.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/9/14/21435542/nba-mock-draft

Highest available at #31 (by his rankings) Isaiah Joe, Robert Woodward, Ty-Shon Alexander, Paul Reed, Devon Dotson, Yam Madar, Jahmi´us Ramsey.

(09-15-2020, 03:56 AM)burekemde Wrote:

(09-14-2020, 03:48 PM)Mavs2019 Wrote: KOC´s first Ringer mock draft has us taking Saddiq Bey at #18.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/9/14/21435542/nba-mock-draft

Highest available at #31 (by his rankings) Isaiah Joe, Robert Woodward, Ty-Shon Alexander, Paul Reed, Devon Dotson, Yam Madar, Jahmi´us Ramsey.

As Kammrath said, this would be awesome. He will be a really great NBA player IMO. Add a great guard next to Luka in the offseason and you get a contending team for the coming season. Is this CP3 or Jrue, who else could it be?

its obvious we need 3 positions, thats the #1) Center (or PF if KP is played at center), then its #2) guard, good defender and shooter, secondary playmaker and then #3) a wing that can shoot and defend.

Sadiq Bay is the best in the draft for that wing role. Then add guard and am big through trades and free agency.

This is another plan to use, rather than going all in on some really big name.

Who could we add in addition Sadiq, through free agency this offseason at guard and a big, that would be realistic? How about Bogdan Bogdanovic and Favors? Bogdan needs more D than hoped, but he can play. With the open looks he would receive he would shoot much more efficient than THJ.

(09-15-2020, 04:59 AM)Dundalis Wrote: The ideal 4 for this team would actually be someone like Robert Covington. A long 6'9 wing who can defend everywhere and shoot the 3

(09-15-2020, 04:59 AM)Dundalis Wrote:

(09-15-2020, 03:56 AM)burekemde Wrote:

(09-14-2020, 03:48 PM)Mavs2019 Wrote: KOC´s first Ringer mock draft has us taking Saddiq Bey at #18.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/9/14/21435542/nba-mock-draft

Highest available at #31 (by his rankings) Isaiah Joe, Robert Woodward, Ty-Shon Alexander, Paul Reed, Devon Dotson, Yam Madar, Jahmi´us Ramsey.

As Kammrath said, this would be awesome. He will be a really great NBA player IMO. Add a great guard next to Luka in the offseason and you get a contending team for the coming season. Is this CP3 or Jrue, who else could it be?

its obvious we need 3 positions, thats the #1) Center (or PF if KP is played at center), then its #2) guard, good defender and shooter, secondary playmaker and then #3) a wing that can shoot and defend.

Sadiq Bay is the best in the draft for that wing role. Then add guard and am big through trades and free agency.

This is another plan to use, rather than going all in on some really big name.

Who could we add in addition Sadiq, through free agency this offseason at guard and a big, that would be realistic? How about Bogdan Bogdanovic and Favors? Bogdan needs more D than hoped, but he can play. With the open looks he would receive he would shoot much more efficient than THJ.

I think there is zero evidence we need a big whatsoever. We can build a pretty great team surrounding KP with long perimeter wings IMO. There's even less evidence that we need someone that is a Boban/Adams type of player (i.e. can't shoot or defend outside the paint). IMO if we bring in a big, they have to at a minimum be able to do what Maxi already does, that is shoot the 3, and be able to defend out to the 3 point line. The only player I've heard potentially being available that remotely fits that bill is Myles Turner (not really sure about his defense outside the paint though). But it's really just not a need at all. Planting an old fashioned big next to KP, no matter how good their rim protection or overall post defense is just asking for defensive issues. Teams don't play with 2 post players anymore, and asking KP to guard out on the 3 point line most of the time is wasting what he's actually good at defensively. The ideal 4 for this team would actually be someone like Robert Covington. A long 6'9 wing who can defend everywhere and shoot the 3 (though preferably a bit better than he has of late).

(09-15-2020, 10:01 AM)burekemde Wrote: Another and better strategy is to play your own way and make others adjust

(09-15-2020, 10:07 AM)Kammrath Wrote:

(09-15-2020, 10:01 AM)burekemde Wrote: Another and better strategy is to play your own way and make others adjust

Totally agree with this. You aren't a championship level team till you are making the other team adjust to you.

(09-15-2020, 10:33 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: Adjusting is fine.