(09-08-2020, 10:34 AM)chaparral Wrote: What spot range do you think the Mavs could move up to with this package, # 18, 31 and Brunson?

(09-08-2020, 11:06 AM)SleepingHero Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 10:34 AM)chaparral Wrote: What spot range do you think the Mavs could move up to with this package, # 18, 31 and Brunson?

A really young, heady, solid starting PG on a rookie deal, and essentially 2 firsts in a weak draft? I'd be inclined to say 7-12 range. But then again I might be overvaluing the picks.

I think Brunson has the type of value that can bring back a sub all-star great 3rd starter.

(09-08-2020, 11:50 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: I think some us are really overrating the impact of a rookie in his 1st season. How many are good enough to make the rotation of a playoff team? How many get a starting spot?
Just take a look at the top 3&D prospects from last years draft. Hunter and Reddish played starter minutes on a terrible Hawks team. They replaced vets like Bazemore and Carter and Hawks fans expected the defense to improve. Now we know that the Hawks had one of the worst defensive teams in NBA history. The drafted wing defenders were big negatives in their first season.
Jarrett Culver played 24 minutes for the Timberwolves. A team that is nearly as bad as the Hawks on defense. He was a liability on offense. Only shooting 30% from 3.

Obviously we also have some positive examples. After a mediocre first half of the season Cam Johnson was great in the bubble games and earned starter minutes. Compared to the regular season Tyler Herro isn´t getting as many minutes but he has proven himself as a reliable shooter.

I think in general my point still stands. If the Mavs want to be a playoff team next season they cannot rely on a rookie to play big minutes or even start.

(09-08-2020, 11:50 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: I think some us are really overrating the impact of a rookie in his 1st season. How many are good enough to make the rotation of a playoff team? How many get a starting spot?
Just take a look at the top 3&D prospects from last years draft. Hunter and Reddish played starter minutes on a terrible Hawks team. They replaced vets like Bazemore and Carter and Hawks fans expected the defense to improve. Now we know that the Hawks had one of the worst defensive teams in NBA history. The drafted wing defenders were big negatives in their first season.
Jarrett Culver played 24 minutes for the Timberwolves. A team that is nearly as bad as the Hawks on defense. He was a liability on offense. Only shooting 30% from 3.

Obviously we also have some positive examples. After a mediocre first half of the season Cam Johnson was great in the bubble games and earned starter minutes. Compared to the regular season Tyler Herro isn´t getting as many minutes but he has proven himself as a reliable shooter.

I think in general my point still stands. If the Mavs want to be a playoff team next season they cannot rely on a rookie to play big minutes or even start.

(09-08-2020, 02:07 PM)khaled1987 Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 11:50 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: I think some us are really overrating the impact of a rookie in his 1st season. How many are good enough to make the rotation of a playoff team? How many get a starting spot?
Just take a look at the top 3&D prospects from last years draft. Hunter and Reddish played starter minutes on a terrible Hawks team. They replaced vets like Bazemore and Carter and Hawks fans expected the defense to improve. Now we know that the Hawks had one of the worst defensive teams in NBA history. The drafted wing defenders were big negatives in their first season.
Jarrett Culver played 24 minutes for the Timberwolves. A team that is nearly as bad as the Hawks on defense. He was a liability on offense. Only shooting 30% from 3.

Obviously we also have some positive examples. After a mediocre first half of the season Cam Johnson was great in the bubble games and earned starter minutes. Compared to the regular season Tyler Herro isn´t getting as many minutes but he has proven himself as a reliable shooter.

I think in general my point still stands. If the Mavs want to be a playoff team next season they cannot rely on a rookie to play big minutes or even start.

Well, Mavs timeline for contention is 2-3 years from now. So a rookie now, who can be legit starter in his 2nd or 3rd year is exactly what the Mavs need.

(09-08-2020, 02:22 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 02:07 PM)khaled1987 Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 11:50 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: I think some us are really overrating the impact of a rookie in his 1st season. How many are good enough to make the rotation of a playoff team? How many get a starting spot?
Just take a look at the top 3&D prospects from last years draft. Hunter and Reddish played starter minutes on a terrible Hawks team. They replaced vets like Bazemore and Carter and Hawks fans expected the defense to improve. Now we know that the Hawks had one of the worst defensive teams in NBA history. The drafted wing defenders were big negatives in their first season.
Jarrett Culver played 24 minutes for the Timberwolves. A team that is nearly as bad as the Hawks on defense. He was a liability on offense. Only shooting 30% from 3.

Obviously we also have some positive examples. After a mediocre first half of the season Cam Johnson was great in the bubble games and earned starter minutes. Compared to the regular season Tyler Herro isn´t getting as many minutes but he has proven himself as a reliable shooter.

I think in general my point still stands. If the Mavs want to be a playoff team next season they cannot rely on a rookie to play big minutes or even start.

Well, Mavs timeline for contention is 2-3 years from now. So a rookie now, who can be legit starter in his 2nd or 3rd year is exactly what the Mavs need.

I don't expect the Mavs to contend (like the Lakers, Clippers and Heat are contending this year) next year, but I believe they have to be a step closer to it (legit 3rd or 4th western seed) in order to be on the right timeline. That means two new starters, when we have few trade assets, no cap room, and just the MLE and vet min contracts available. The draft pick, their best trade asset, needs to be a starter (and one who helps rather than hurts), or be traded for a starter.

If Donnie pulls Luka and Carlisle into his office this month and tells them to keep working on improving internally this year and that 2021 is the big leap (whether with Giannis or other possibilities) and Luka buys in 100%, then maybe you can think about drafting a guy who will need a year or two to really contribute.

BTW, I like the other Bey (Tyler) too, but he's probably a reach at 18.

(09-08-2020, 02:31 PM)khaled1987 Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 02:22 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 02:07 PM)khaled1987 Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 11:50 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: I think some us are really overrating the impact of a rookie in his 1st season. How many are good enough to make the rotation of a playoff team? How many get a starting spot?
Just take a look at the top 3&D prospects from last years draft. Hunter and Reddish played starter minutes on a terrible Hawks team. They replaced vets like Bazemore and Carter and Hawks fans expected the defense to improve. Now we know that the Hawks had one of the worst defensive teams in NBA history. The drafted wing defenders were big negatives in their first season.
Jarrett Culver played 24 minutes for the Timberwolves. A team that is nearly as bad as the Hawks on defense. He was a liability on offense. Only shooting 30% from 3.

Obviously we also have some positive examples. After a mediocre first half of the season Cam Johnson was great in the bubble games and earned starter minutes. Compared to the regular season Tyler Herro isn´t getting as many minutes but he has proven himself as a reliable shooter.

I think in general my point still stands. If the Mavs want to be a playoff team next season they cannot rely on a rookie to play big minutes or even start.

Well, Mavs timeline for contention is 2-3 years from now. So a rookie now, who can be legit starter in his 2nd or 3rd year is exactly what the Mavs need.

I don't expect the Mavs to contend (like the Lakers, Clippers and Heat are contending this year) next year, but I believe they have to be a step closer to it (legit 3rd or 4th western seed) in order to be on the right timeline. That means two new starters, when we have few trade assets, no cap room, and just the MLE and vet min contracts available. The draft pick, their best trade asset, needs to be a starter (and one who helps rather than hurts), or be traded for a starter.

If Donnie pulls Luka and Carlisle into his office this month and tells them to keep working on improving internally this year and that 2021 is the big leap (whether with Giannis or other possibilities) and Luka buys in 100%, then maybe you can think about drafting a guy who will need a year or two to really contribute.

BTW, I like the other Bey (Tyler) too, but he's probably a reach at 18.

Luka doesn't have a say in this, not now, not next year. May be after his rookie deal is over.
As Cuban loves to say, players are lousy GM. Luka will look under his feet and would say I am aiming for championship, which is normal from a guy spend good portion of his upbringing in Real Madrid.But this isn't Europe, and next year we will be step closer just by growing internally. We are one of the most inexperienced teams in the NBA, even older players like Maxi/Seth have played less than 5 years in the league.
Defense is an area that automatically improves with experience, same with closing games. Those 2 alone could make us top 3 in the West.
I don't see anyway we "upgrade 2 starters" here next season. I think this is more wishful thinking than anything.
THJ is better 3rd option than most contenders have, DFS and Maxi are legit 3&D players.
Never mind, we have no real assets to make such deals that people wants. People are over rating the worth of 18/31 picks in bad draft.
Mavs need to think long term, because now Luka has no say at anything and can only be accept what the team tells him, 3-4 years from now it is the opposite and he will hold all the power.
Now, you get a legit starter who is even younger than Luka, it is a great move for the future of the franchise. We need a Josh Howard/Devin Harris type of pick, at worst a Jae Crowder one. Those are kind of players that can help us a lot more than a short sighted deal.

(09-08-2020, 02:22 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: I don't expect the Mavs to contend (like the Lakers, Clippers and Heat are contending this year) next year, but I believe they have to be a step closer to it (legit 3rd or 4th western seed) in order to be on the right timeline. That means two new starters

(09-08-2020, 11:50 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: I think some us are really overrating the impact of a rookie in his 1st season. How many are good enough to make the rotation of a playoff team? How many get a starting spot?
Just take a look at the top 3&D prospects from last years draft. Hunter and Reddish played starter minutes on a terrible Hawks team. They replaced vets like Bazemore and Carter and Hawks fans expected the defense to improve. Now we know that the Hawks had one of the worst defensive teams in NBA history. The drafted wing defenders were big negatives in their first season.
Jarrett Culver played 24 minutes for the Timberwolves. A team that is nearly as bad as the Hawks on defense. He was a liability on offense. Only shooting 30% from 3.

Obviously we also have some positive examples. After a mediocre first half of the season Cam Johnson was great in the bubble games and earned starter minutes. Compared to the regular season Tyler Herro isn´t getting as many minutes but he has proven himself as a reliable shooter.

I think in general my point still stands. If the Mavs want to be a playoff team next season they cannot rely on a rookie to play big minutes or even start.

(09-08-2020, 05:33 PM)Playmaker Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 11:50 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: I think some us are really overrating the impact of a rookie in his 1st season. How many are good enough to make the rotation of a playoff team? How many get a starting spot?
Just take a look at the top 3&D prospects from last years draft. Hunter and Reddish played starter minutes on a terrible Hawks team. They replaced vets like Bazemore and Carter and Hawks fans expected the defense to improve. Now we know that the Hawks had one of the worst defensive teams in NBA history. The drafted wing defenders were big negatives in their first season.
Jarrett Culver played 24 minutes for the Timberwolves. A team that is nearly as bad as the Hawks on defense. He was a liability on offense. Only shooting 30% from 3.

Obviously we also have some positive examples. After a mediocre first half of the season Cam Johnson was great in the bubble games and earned starter minutes. Compared to the regular season Tyler Herro isn´t getting as many minutes but he has proven himself as a reliable shooter.

I think in general my point still stands. If the Mavs want to be a playoff team next season they cannot rely on a rookie to play big minutes or even start.

I think you are forgetting Matisse Thybulle, Kendrick Nunn, Lu Dort, Brandon Clarke, Keldon Johnson, Darius Bazley all played significant minutes for playoff contending teams.  

Impact of rookies can't be overrated or overstated in todays NBA.  As skills training becomes better and better, skills are developed at an earlier age allowing rookies to make an earlier impact than ever.

(09-08-2020, 06:37 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 05:33 PM)Playmaker Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 11:50 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: I think some us are really overrating the impact of a rookie in his 1st season. How many are good enough to make the rotation of a playoff team? How many get a starting spot?
Just take a look at the top 3&D prospects from last years draft. Hunter and Reddish played starter minutes on a terrible Hawks team. They replaced vets like Bazemore and Carter and Hawks fans expected the defense to improve. Now we know that the Hawks had one of the worst defensive teams in NBA history. The drafted wing defenders were big negatives in their first season.
Jarrett Culver played 24 minutes for the Timberwolves. A team that is nearly as bad as the Hawks on defense. He was a liability on offense. Only shooting 30% from 3.

Obviously we also have some positive examples. After a mediocre first half of the season Cam Johnson was great in the bubble games and earned starter minutes. Compared to the regular season Tyler Herro isn´t getting as many minutes but he has proven himself as a reliable shooter.

I think in general my point still stands. If the Mavs want to be a playoff team next season they cannot rely on a rookie to play big minutes or even start.

I think you are forgetting Matisse Thybulle, Kendrick Nunn, Lu Dort, Brandon Clarke, Keldon Johnson, Darius Bazley all played significant minutes for playoff contending teams.  

Impact of rookies can't be overrated or overstated in todays NBA.  As skills training becomes better and better, skills are developed at an earlier age allowing rookies to make an earlier impact than ever.

Dort and Nunn went undrafted. Nunn is only playing garbage time minutes in the playoffs. Dragic replaced him as the starting PG. Dort was great and terrible at the same time. Great defense combined with questionable shooting mechanics.
Keldon Johnson only played 17 games this season and spend most of his time in the g-league. He had some good games in the bubble.
Bazley was a below average role player. Solid defender. Bad on offense.
Thybulle earned his role as a defensive specialist but he is a liability on offense as well.

Not a single high impact starter. Some talented role players but all of them have major flaws. Don´t get me wrong. I would love to have Thybulle or Dort on the roster but I don´t want them to play starter minutes in a playoff series against the Clippers. That´s what some posters expect from a future Mavs 1st round pick.
I get why. The Mavs desperately need 1-2 more starting caliber players and the draft might be a way to get one but I am also realistic. Just take a look at the numbers in the articles that I have linked below.

https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what-are-the-odds-to-become-an-all-star-for-each-draft-pick-2d113d6b82e5

(09-08-2020, 07:29 PM)Playmaker Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 06:37 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 05:33 PM)Playmaker Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 11:50 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: I think some us are really overrating the impact of a rookie in his 1st season. How many are good enough to make the rotation of a playoff team? How many get a starting spot?
Just take a look at the top 3&D prospects from last years draft. Hunter and Reddish played starter minutes on a terrible Hawks team. They replaced vets like Bazemore and Carter and Hawks fans expected the defense to improve. Now we know that the Hawks had one of the worst defensive teams in NBA history. The drafted wing defenders were big negatives in their first season.
Jarrett Culver played 24 minutes for the Timberwolves. A team that is nearly as bad as the Hawks on defense. He was a liability on offense. Only shooting 30% from 3.

Obviously we also have some positive examples. After a mediocre first half of the season Cam Johnson was great in the bubble games and earned starter minutes. Compared to the regular season Tyler Herro isn´t getting as many minutes but he has proven himself as a reliable shooter.

I think in general my point still stands. If the Mavs want to be a playoff team next season they cannot rely on a rookie to play big minutes or even start.

I think you are forgetting Matisse Thybulle, Kendrick Nunn, Lu Dort, Brandon Clarke, Keldon Johnson, Darius Bazley all played significant minutes for playoff contending teams.  

Impact of rookies can't be overrated or overstated in todays NBA.  As skills training becomes better and better, skills are developed at an earlier age allowing rookies to make an earlier impact than ever.

Dort and Nunn went undrafted. Nunn is only playing garbage time minutes in the playoffs. Dragic replaced him as the starting PG. Dort was great and terrible at the same time. Great defense combined with questionable shooting mechanics.
Keldon Johnson only played 17 games this season and spend most of his time in the g-league. He had some good games in the bubble.
Bazley was a below average role player. Solid defender. Bad on offense.
Thybulle earned his role as a defensive specialist but he is a liability on offense as well.

Not a single high impact starter. Some talented role players but all of them have major flaws. Don´t get me wrong. I would love to have Thybulle or Dort on the roster but I don´t want them to play starter minutes in a playoff series against the Clippers. That´s what some posters expect from a future Mavs 1st round pick.
I get why. The Mavs desperately need 1-2 more starting caliber players and the draft might be a way to get one but I am also realistic. Just take a look at the numbers in the articles that I have linked below.

https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what-are-the-odds-to-become-an-all-star-for-each-draft-pick-2d113d6b82e5

First, what does them being undrafted have to do with anything?  They were still rookies starting on playoff teams.  Moreover, Nunn comes off the bench for Heat in the playoffs after starting a majority of the regular season.  Thats hardly garbage time minutes. He was also hurt or had Covid I believe, causing him to be out before that.   So he is still working himself back into the rotation.

Keldon is ascending player, playing a big role down stretch of the season for a team contending for the playoffs.  Same with Bazley or Thybulle.  Many of these players will be starters as soon as next season.

Regardless this all come down to how you measure impact.  If its going to be by all star appearances, that's an almost impossible measure to grade on.  There are only 24 all star players in a given year.  So of course that it will be hard to find those type of players in a given draft. 

Furthermore, not all impactful players are all stars.  Was Jason Terry an impactful player for the Mavs? How many Allstar games did he play in?

To me impactful players are those who start or get starter minutes off the bench while producing points, rebounds or assists.  Those are readily available in every draft if a team evaluates talent correctly.

(09-08-2020, 07:44 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 07:29 PM)Playmaker Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 06:37 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 05:33 PM)Playmaker Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 11:50 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: I think some us are really overrating the impact of a rookie in his 1st season. How many are good enough to make the rotation of a playoff team? How many get a starting spot?
Just take a look at the top 3&D prospects from last years draft. Hunter and Reddish played starter minutes on a terrible Hawks team. They replaced vets like Bazemore and Carter and Hawks fans expected the defense to improve. Now we know that the Hawks had one of the worst defensive teams in NBA history. The drafted wing defenders were big negatives in their first season.
Jarrett Culver played 24 minutes for the Timberwolves. A team that is nearly as bad as the Hawks on defense. He was a liability on offense. Only shooting 30% from 3.

Obviously we also have some positive examples. After a mediocre first half of the season Cam Johnson was great in the bubble games and earned starter minutes. Compared to the regular season Tyler Herro isn´t getting as many minutes but he has proven himself as a reliable shooter.

I think in general my point still stands. If the Mavs want to be a playoff team next season they cannot rely on a rookie to play big minutes or even start.

I think you are forgetting Matisse Thybulle, Kendrick Nunn, Lu Dort, Brandon Clarke, Keldon Johnson, Darius Bazley all played significant minutes for playoff contending teams.  

Impact of rookies can't be overrated or overstated in todays NBA.  As skills training becomes better and better, skills are developed at an earlier age allowing rookies to make an earlier impact than ever.

Dort and Nunn went undrafted. Nunn is only playing garbage time minutes in the playoffs. Dragic replaced him as the starting PG. Dort was great and terrible at the same time. Great defense combined with questionable shooting mechanics.
Keldon Johnson only played 17 games this season and spend most of his time in the g-league. He had some good games in the bubble.
Bazley was a below average role player. Solid defender. Bad on offense.
Thybulle earned his role as a defensive specialist but he is a liability on offense as well.

Not a single high impact starter. Some talented role players but all of them have major flaws. Don´t get me wrong. I would love to have Thybulle or Dort on the roster but I don´t want them to play starter minutes in a playoff series against the Clippers. That´s what some posters expect from a future Mavs 1st round pick.
I get why. The Mavs desperately need 1-2 more starting caliber players and the draft might be a way to get one but I am also realistic. Just take a look at the numbers in the articles that I have linked below.

https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what-are-the-odds-to-become-an-all-star-for-each-draft-pick-2d113d6b82e5

First, what does them being undrafted have to do with anything?  They were still rookies starting on playoff teams.  Moreover, Nunn comes off the bench for Heat in the playoffs after starting a majority of the regular season.  Thats hardly garbage time minutes. He was also hurt or had Covid I believe, causing him to be out before that.   So he is still working himself back into the rotation.

Keldon is ascending player, playing a big role down stretch of the season for a team contending for the playoffs.  Same with Bazley or Thybulle.  Many of these players will be starters as soon as next season.

Regardless this all come down to how you measure impact.  If its going to be by all star appearances, that's an almost impossible measure to grade on.  There are only 24 all star players in a given year.  So of course that it will be hard to find those type of players in a given draft. 

Furthermore, not all impactful players are all stars.  Was Jason Terry an impactful player for the Mavs? How many Allstar games did he play in?

To me impactful players are those who start or get starter minutes off the bench while producing points, rebounds or assists.  Those are readily available in every draft if a team evaluates talent correctly.

At least take a look at the articles before you respond. No point in having any discussion if you aren´t willing to do that. This is not only about allstar games. One of the links has a detailed breakdown that lists the chances to get a star, starter, role player, bust.
I initialy responded to multiple posts that proposed a potential mid first round pick as a starter next season. My response was that it is not very likely that any picked player will be good enough to start on a playoff team in his first year. Most aren´t even good enough to make the rotation of a playoff team.
Not really sure what is controversial about that opinion. Yes some rookies made an impact as solid role players this season. Others did not. On average it´s not very likely that any rookie will meet the expectations of this board. Of course some teams do a better job than others but looking at the Mavs history they aren´t among them.

(09-08-2020, 08:25 PM)Playmaker Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 07:44 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 07:29 PM)Playmaker Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 06:37 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 05:33 PM)Playmaker Wrote: I think you are forgetting Matisse Thybulle, Kendrick Nunn, Lu Dort, Brandon Clarke, Keldon Johnson, Darius Bazley all played significant minutes for playoff contending teams.  

Impact of rookies can't be overrated or overstated in todays NBA.  As skills training becomes better and better, skills are developed at an earlier age allowing rookies to make an earlier impact than ever.

Dort and Nunn went undrafted. Nunn is only playing garbage time minutes in the playoffs. Dragic replaced him as the starting PG. Dort was great and terrible at the same time. Great defense combined with questionable shooting mechanics.
Keldon Johnson only played 17 games this season and spend most of his time in the g-league. He had some good games in the bubble.
Bazley was a below average role player. Solid defender. Bad on offense.
Thybulle earned his role as a defensive specialist but he is a liability on offense as well.

Not a single high impact starter. Some talented role players but all of them have major flaws. Don´t get me wrong. I would love to have Thybulle or Dort on the roster but I don´t want them to play starter minutes in a playoff series against the Clippers. That´s what some posters expect from a future Mavs 1st round pick.
I get why. The Mavs desperately need 1-2 more starting caliber players and the draft might be a way to get one but I am also realistic. Just take a look at the numbers in the articles that I have linked below.

https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what-are-the-odds-to-become-an-all-star-for-each-draft-pick-2d113d6b82e5

First, what does them being undrafted have to do with anything?  They were still rookies starting on playoff teams.  Moreover, Nunn comes off the bench for Heat in the playoffs after starting a majority of the regular season.  Thats hardly garbage time minutes. He was also hurt or had Covid I believe, causing him to be out before that.   So he is still working himself back into the rotation.

Keldon is ascending player, playing a big role down stretch of the season for a team contending for the playoffs.  Same with Bazley or Thybulle.  Many of these players will be starters as soon as next season.

Regardless this all come down to how you measure impact.  If its going to be by all star appearances, that's an almost impossible measure to grade on.  There are only 24 all star players in a given year.  So of course that it will be hard to find those type of players in a given draft. 

Furthermore, not all impactful players are all stars.  Was Jason Terry an impactful player for the Mavs? How many Allstar games did he play in?

To me impactful players are those who start or get starter minutes off the bench while producing points, rebounds or assists.  Those are readily available in every draft if a team evaluates talent correctly.

At least take a look at the articles before you respond. No point in having any discussion if you aren´t willing to do that. This is not only about allstar games. One of the links has a detailed breakdown that lists the chances to get a star, starter, role player, bust.
I initialy responded to multiple posts that proposed a potential mid first round pick as a starter next season. My response was that it is not very likely that any picked player will be good enough to start on a playoff team in his first year. Most aren´t even good enough to make the rotation of a playoff team.
Not really sure what is controversial about that opinion. Yes some rookies made an impact as solid role players this season. Others did not. On average it´s not very likely that any rookie will meet the expectations of this board. Of course some teams do a better job than others but looking at the Mavs history they aren´t among them.

So this study you posted from 82 games is very simplistic and flawed.  First, I would like to know where his cutoff points for his rating system lay. 

Next, this rating formula he came up with to decide categories for players is highly flawed.  For example how are points, rated the same as rebounds and assist in the formula for a game that's decided by points.  

I give him props for studying that much data but its hard to take away anything from it.

(09-08-2020, 07:44 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 07:29 PM)Playmaker Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 06:37 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 05:33 PM)Playmaker Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 11:50 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: I think some us are really overrating the impact of a rookie in his 1st season. How many are good enough to make the rotation of a playoff team? How many get a starting spot?
Just take a look at the top 3&D prospects from last years draft. Hunter and Reddish played starter minutes on a terrible Hawks team. They replaced vets like Bazemore and Carter and Hawks fans expected the defense to improve. Now we know that the Hawks had one of the worst defensive teams in NBA history. The drafted wing defenders were big negatives in their first season.
Jarrett Culver played 24 minutes for the Timberwolves. A team that is nearly as bad as the Hawks on defense. He was a liability on offense. Only shooting 30% from 3.

Obviously we also have some positive examples. After a mediocre first half of the season Cam Johnson was great in the bubble games and earned starter minutes. Compared to the regular season Tyler Herro isn´t getting as many minutes but he has proven himself as a reliable shooter.

I think in general my point still stands. If the Mavs want to be a playoff team next season they cannot rely on a rookie to play big minutes or even start.

I think you are forgetting Matisse Thybulle, Kendrick Nunn, Lu Dort, Brandon Clarke, Keldon Johnson, Darius Bazley all played significant minutes for playoff contending teams.

Impact of rookies can't be overrated or overstated in todays NBA. As skills training becomes better and better, skills are developed at an earlier age allowing rookies to make an earlier impact than ever.

Dort and Nunn went undrafted. Nunn is only playing garbage time minutes in the playoffs. Dragic replaced him as the starting PG. Dort was great and terrible at the same time. Great defense combined with questionable shooting mechanics.
Keldon Johnson only played 17 games this season and spend most of his time in the g-league. He had some good games in the bubble.
Bazley was a below average role player. Solid defender. Bad on offense.
Thybulle earned his role as a defensive specialist but he is a liability on offense as well.

Not a single high impact starter. Some talented role players but all of them have major flaws. Don´t get me wrong. I would love to have Thybulle or Dort on the roster but I don´t want them to play starter minutes in a playoff series against the Clippers. That´s what some posters expect from a future Mavs 1st round pick.
I get why. The Mavs desperately need 1-2 more starting caliber players and the draft might be a way to get one but I am also realistic. Just take a look at the numbers in the articles that I have linked below.

https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what-are-the-odds-to-become-an-all-star-for-each-draft-pick-2d113d6b82e5

First, what does them being undrafted have to do with anything? They were still rookies starting on playoff teams. Moreover, Nunn comes off the bench for Heat in the playoffs after starting a majority of the regular season. Thats hardly garbage time minutes. He was also hurt or had Covid I believe, causing him to be out before that. So he is still working himself back into the rotation.

Keldon is ascending player, playing a big role down stretch of the season for a team contending for the playoffs. Same with Bazley or Thybulle. Many of these players will be starters as soon as next season.

Regardless this all come down to how you measure impact. If its going to be by all star appearances, that's an almost impossible measure to grade on. There are only 24 all star players in a given year. So of course that it will be hard to find those type of players in a given draft.

Furthermore, not all impactful players are all stars. Was Jason Terry an impactful player for the Mavs? How many Allstar games did he play in?

To me impactful players are those who start or get starter minutes off the bench while producing points, rebounds or assists. Those are readily available in every draft if a team evaluates talent correctly.

At least take a look at the articles before you respond. No point in having any discussion if you aren´t willing to do that. This is not only about allstar games. One of the links has a detailed breakdown that lists the chances to get a star, starter, role player, bust.
I initialy responded to multiple posts that proposed a potential mid first round pick as a starter next season. My response was that it is not very likely that any picked player will be good enough to start on a playoff team in his first year. Most aren´t even good enough to make the rotation of a playoff team.
Not really sure what is controversial about that opinion. Yes some rookies made an impact as solid role players this season. Others did not. On average it´s not very likely that any rookie will meet the expectations of this board. Of course some teams do a better job than others but looking at the Mavs history they aren´t among them.

(09-08-2020, 08:57 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: Our positions are actually not that far apart. As I responded to you, if the Mavs don't have a moral assurance that the guy they would draft can be a playoff rotational (top 8 on the team in minutes) player next year while starting during the regular season (i.e., a Nunn-like profile), then it would be dumb-assed of them not to trade their pick. They need to improve the starting lineup bigtime. As I've said several times, it all comes down to letting Luka know, season by season, and in the most absolute of terms yes including next season, that they are far more serious about putting a winning team around him than the Bucks were with Giannis.