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Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST - Printable Version

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RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST - Jmaciscool - 07-03-2025

(07-03-2025, 01:39 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: The reason this LeBron thing won't go away is that he opted in, rather than out to sign his customary 1+1. Reading the tea leaves there:

We can reasonably assume he did so because they, the Lakers, were not offering the 1+1. I suppose it's possible that he did so because he's already determined that this is his last season, but knowing what we know about him, and based on last week's Rich Paul kerfuffle, I don't think so.

From there, we can basically assume that this WILL be LeBron's last year in a Lakers uniform, whether he retires or not. If he decides this is his last season, that's probably only mildly annoying to him because he loses a little bit of face in that it's rather obvious that he's not the only one making the decision on when/if he exits the Lakers, but it's still probably best for him to retire a Laker hero, setting up and continuing whatever it is he's got going out there in LA for after basketball (the reasons he went there in the first place, really).

But, if he decides he wants to play another season after this one, or maybe even two more...that's where it gets interesting. If he is going to retire wearing a different jersey, he's going to want to get there as soon as possible, imo, while he's still "LeBron James" on the court. However, it IS a big leap to assume the Lakers will buy him out, just as a thank you. It wouldn't be shocking, really, but they'd really, really have to want to be perceived as the good guys in the situation. There really wouldn't be anything else "in it for them," other than maybe just getting the circus that has been the LeBron James Lakers era behind them. And make no mistake, they are in for a circus of a season if he's a Laker this year.

End of day, I think he's a Laker for one more season and then retires. But part of me thinks his competitive nature will push back against the idea that they, not he, get to decide when he's done. After the Luka trade and MIL stretch-waiving Dame, I don't think anything happening in the NBA will ever shock me again.

I agree that it's unlikely he gets bought out, but I can see it happening IF the Lakers are truly ready to be out of the LeBron circus AND they're ready to fully transition to the Luka era AND the reports of their being no trade market for LeBron are accurate.  None of those things seem super far fetched on their own.  The Lakers have to pay the money either way, so maybe to them it would be worth it just to move on, especially with the new ownership coming in.  Fresh start for everyone (relatively speaking).


RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST - F Gump - 07-03-2025

(07-03-2025, 12:53 PM)Kidnova Wrote: There a greater than 0 chance that Luka doesn't even reup with them.  Yes, they can pay him more than any other team, but not by much since the supermax is off the table.  If he sees a better opportunity in Brooklyn (random example, and I don't know why anyone would do this) or wants to team up somewhere with Giannis he could theoretically decline his PO next season and just walk.

I have wondered if Luka will choose to head to UFA Land in 2026 (ie not extend in 2025), which means he picks his choice of teams. 

For max money to him, his next deal is only a 2-year deal (2+1 of course) at 30%, which will take him to supermax year with full Bird rights -- so diff in pay is in yr 2 (only) and minor. From there, all is the same.

IMO, for Luka, he can make 2026 his crossroads, where he chooses his team to finish out his career. (No, before anyone asks, imo a return to DAL would have no possibility. Everyone has moved on.)


RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST - DallasMaverick - 07-03-2025

(07-03-2025, 01:53 PM)FireNicoHarrison Wrote: Wow... A 40yo guy and one of the most overrated guard in the league... I can immagine how is worried Luka about those 2 hahahahahaha

That's because i don't want Reaves here.

I’m trying to think of guys who are good comps for Reaves.

More efficient than THJ and DeAngelo Russell.

Maybe Clarkson, but not as skilled a creator?

Brad Beal? Malcolm Brogdon?


RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST - omahen - 07-03-2025

(07-03-2025, 02:06 PM)DallasMaverick Wrote: I’m trying to think of guys who are good comps for Reaves.

More efficient than THJ and DeAngelo Russell.

Maybe Clarkson, but not as skilled a creator?

Brad Beal? Malcolm Brogdon?

Desmond Bane. Both were in non alpha roles on their playoff teams. Very similar counting stats. I didn't go into details, but a quick view could indicate Reaves has better advanced stats.


RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST - omahen - 07-03-2025

(07-03-2025, 01:58 PM)Jmaciscool Wrote: I agree that it's unlikely he gets bought out, but I can see it happening IF the Lakers are truly ready to be out of the LeBron circus AND they're ready to fully transition to the Luka era AND the reports of their being no trade market for LeBron are accurate.  None of those things seem super far fetched on their own.  The Lakers have to pay the money either way, so maybe to them it would be worth it just to move on, especially with the new ownership coming in.  Fresh start for everyone (relatively speaking).

And gift LeBron to one of their competitors? I don't see it happening.


RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST - F Gump - 07-03-2025

(07-03-2025, 01:39 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: The reason this LeBron thing won't go away is that he opted in, rather than out to sign his customary 1+1. Reading the tea leaves there:

We can reasonably assume he did so because they, the Lakers, were not offering the 1+1.

Oh? I have assumed (unreasonably, if you wish) LBJ would have been given a 1+1 if he had asked -- ie, I assume he did not ask - because IMO LA will always cater to his wishes, even if absurd (see James, Bronny/draft and /contract). I have no answer as far as why he never asked, but I still believe that was what has happened.


RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST - omahen - 07-03-2025

(07-03-2025, 02:12 PM)F Gump Wrote: I have assumed LBJ would have been given a 1+1 if he had asked -- ie, I assume he did not ask - because IMO LA will always cater to his wishes, even if absurd (see James, Bronny/draft and /contract). I have no answer as far as why he never asked, but I still believe that was what has happened.

Or perhaps Lakers had to cater to his wishes before trading for Luka and now they don't need to anymore. Now, they are making it very clearly known, that they are building around Luka.


RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST - KillerLeft - 07-03-2025

(07-03-2025, 02:12 PM)F Gump Wrote: I have assumed LBJ would have been given a 1+1 if he had asked -- ie, I assume he did not ask - because IMO LA will always cater to his wishes, even if absurd (see James, Bronny/draft and /contract). I have no answer as far as why he never asked, but I still believe that was what has happened.

That was my initial feeling as well. Since then, absorbing everything out there (much of which is probably BS, admittedly) I have come to believe that it's possible they didn't offer it to him. Stein said something along those lines on today's DLLS podcast, and that's not the first time it occurred to me, but it did confirm it as a possibility (to me, at least).


RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST - KillerLeft - 07-03-2025

(07-03-2025, 02:15 PM)omahen Wrote: Or perhaps Lakers had to cater to his wishes before trading for Luka and now they don't need to anymore. Now, they are making it very clearly known, that they are building around Luka.

This is making more sense to me at the moment, and would explain a lot of what's been out there these past couple of weeks, whether it's overblown or not.


RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST - HoosierDaddyKid - 07-03-2025

(07-03-2025, 12:13 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: Cam Whitmore has been linked to the Lakers in a potential sign-and-trade for Dorian Finney-Smith, per @AnthonyIrwinLA

“Another name league sources have linked to the Lakers: Cam Whitmore. If Houston decides to shed a little salary or if they expand the Kevin Durant trade to include their acquisition of Dorian Finney-Smith, Whitmore – who is looking for a larger role than he’d have on that loaded Rockets roster – is considered a candidate to be moved.”


That would be a good pickup for them. He's not getting any burn in Houston. Dude's got POtential.


RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST - DanSchwartzgan - 07-03-2025

(07-03-2025, 12:53 PM)Kidnova Wrote: There a greater than 0 chance that Luka doesn't even reup with them.  Yes, they can pay him more than any other team, but not by much since the supermax is off the table.  If he sees a better opportunity in Brooklyn (random example, and I don't know why anyone would do this) or wants to team up somewhere with Giannis he could theoretically decline his PO next season and just walk.

I tried to point this out back when the trade happened.  LA had no guarantee Luka would stay and no real advantage to keeping him.  That has to be taken into account when determining value.  It isn’t to say Nico got enough necessarily.  It is to say that there was a limit to what he could get given the flight risk once the Super Max was off the table.


RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST - KillerLeft - 07-03-2025

(07-03-2025, 02:12 PM)omahen Wrote: And gift LeBron to one of their competitors? I don't see it happening.

Yeah, there is that. 

But, just playing devil's advocate, he has the power to make life for the Lakers completely untenable for the next year. Whether or not they (the Lakers) care what he thinks about anything, people in, around and following the league still do care a lot. They (the Lakers) will absolutely not want him releasing statements like last week's through Rich Paul every couple of weeks this season or giving passive aggressive interviews (which he is quite comfortable doing on a regular basis). At some point, should he choose to, he can make it almost impossible for them to accomplish anything this season without giving him what he wants. 

But, that's assuming we know what he wants, or even that he does, clearly. And, his rep in LA would be bloodied by such a tactic, to be sure. Even if he wants out...he'd have to really, really want out to go down that road. 

It's fun to think about all this, but all roads lead back to him finishing out this year in LA and then retiring, I believe.


RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST - omahen - 07-03-2025

(07-03-2025, 02:16 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: That was my initial feeling as well. Since then, absorbing everything out there (much of which is probably BS, admittedly) I have come to believe that it's possible they didn't offer it to him. Stein said something along those lines on today's DLLS podcast, and that's not the first time it occurred to me, but it did confirm it as a possibility (to me, at least).

Personally, I am convinced they didn't offer it. They can't build a contender around Luka if they are being held hostage with max money declining LeBron with his no trade clause. 

Those who watched Lakers games, and I obviously watched every one of them since the trade, could see that LeBron doesn't have a max level impact anymore. He is phenomenal for a 40 year old. But, his impact is not at a max level player anymore. Just looking at a small sample Minny playoff series. Lakers defense with LeBron was actually worse than with Luka, although Luka was taking all the heat. Lakers defense without LeBron was phenomenal. Lakers offense without Luka completely fell of a cliff in the series. Regular season doesn't paint a much different picture. Same story in the regular season post all star break (after the trade). Luka a big positive on the court, Lakers playing better without LeBron. 

Admittedly, a lot of this probably goes to the awkward LeBron-Luka-Reaves trio. My guess would be, that two of them at same time surrounded with three defenders work. Three of them doesn't. But, the logical odd man out in this trio is not Reaves, it is LeBron. LeBron would be gone in a couple of years at most (now everything points this is his last Lakers season). Lakers can hope to replace one star. They can't replace both LeBron and Reaves, if Reaves is traded for a couple of role players.


RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST - F Gump - 07-03-2025

If LA refused to offer LBJ a 1+1, as you guys opine, it puts a whole new dynamic on the scene in LA this season. In that case, it's logical to assume LBJ is majorly miffed, and since he has ALWAYS been catered to by everyone, it could be really interesting how it plays out.

A trade for LBJ is such a team-wrecker for DAL. And it guts us of so many good players for Flagg's future. Let's not.

Side observation about "what if he asks for a buyout?" -- DAL makes sense as a place he would wish to be if he's picking a place after a buyout, with Kyrie and AD already here. But sheesh, what would we do w yet another F??? No money, no minutes, no roster spot - yep, Lebron is on the way!!


RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST - FireNicoHarrison - 07-03-2025

(07-03-2025, 02:06 PM)DallasMaverick Wrote: I’m trying to think of guys who are good comps for Reaves.

More efficient than THJ and DeAngelo Russell.

Maybe Clarkson, but not as skilled a creator?

Brad Beal? Malcolm Brogdon?

He is a great RS players in this era when nobody play defense... In last 2 PO years were awful.

Clarkson is a good comparison.


RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST - KillerLeft - 07-03-2025

(07-03-2025, 02:19 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I tried to point this out back when the trade happened.  LA had no guarantee Luka would stay and no real advantage to keeping him.  That has to be taken into account when determining value.  It isn’t to say Nico got enough necessarily.  It is to say that there was a limit to what he could get given the flight risk once the Super Max was off the table.

And even another way to look at it (building on this point about extracting value) is that LA was/is one of the very few teams plausibly able to convince themselves they could keep him, which is why a trade for Giannis from Milwaukee (just as an example) was never, ever going to happen. 

The Knicks had Brunson, and were very happy with their direction. 
Miami had nothing even remotely worth thinking about in exchange for Luka. Ditto for Brooklyn. Those teams didn't even have their own picks. 
I suppose you could make an argument that you'd rather have Kawhi than AD, but I wouldn't, especially at the time. 
Boston had the best team in the NBA and was trying to figure out how to get cheaper, not sign up for another max player. 

That's about the list of teams you could plausibly expect to want to get into the Luka business, isn't it? Even if you wanted to tear the team down and make a deal for "all the picks in the world," which Harrison clearly didn't, there aren't many teams with lots of picks left, and, due to his contractual situation (which is your point), those teams wouldn't have dared spend them on Luka at that time. 

The farther we get from the deal, the more I think it's about one thing, and one thing only: Some people just flat out don't think Luka should've been traded unless he had asked to be, no matter what. That is a defensible viewpoint, because he absolutely would've taken that supermax here. But, the Mavs didn't want to give it to him. So, we can either wrap our heads around that or not, but I'm kind of done criticizing the actual deal. I think they could've gotten a little more from LA, but I also think Dallas is in a much, much better position than LA is (yes, due to quite a bit of dumb luck, but not only because of that). I think AD is a great, great player to have, and I think there's reason to be very optimistic about the next few seasons.


RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST - omahen - 07-03-2025

(07-03-2025, 02:23 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: Yeah, there is that. 

But, just playing devil's advocate, he has the power to make life for the Lakers completely untenable for the next year. Whether or not they (the Lakers) care what he thinks about anything, people in, around and following the league still do care a lot. They (the Lakers) will absolutely not want him releasing statements like last week's through Rich Paul every couple of weeks this season or giving passive aggressive interviews (which he is quite comfortable doing on a regular basis). At some point, should he choose to, he can make it almost impossible for them to accomplish anything this season without giving him what he wants. 

But, that's assuming we know what he wants, or even that he does, clearly. And, his rep in LA would be bloodied by such a tactic, to be sure. Even if he wants out...he'd have to really, really want out to go down that road. 

It's fun to think about all this, but all roads lead back to him finishing out this year in LA and then retiring, I believe.

Well, of course he can make life miserable for Lakers. But, Lakers might view this season just as a transition to post LeBron years and would not really care a lot. Of course, they want to be as good as possible. But, I don't think they seriously hope to be real contenders this season. Their moves (so far) are careful, trying to improve the team without damaging the long term aspect. And who knows, if everything clicks, they could still make a run. West will be killing fields in any case and who knows what happens to any team.

On the other hand - by making life miserable to the Lakers, LeBron will also kill any chance he might have this season to compete. And time is certainly not on his side.


RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST - KillerLeft - 07-03-2025

(07-03-2025, 02:34 PM)omahen Wrote: On the other hand - by making life miserable to the Lakers, LeBron will also kill any chance he might have this season to compete. And time is certainly not on his side.

This is also a good point. Factored into my thinking, but not articulated, so thanks.


RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST - RoyTarpleysGhost - 07-03-2025

I agree with KillerLeft that Lebron wanted another 1+1 deal and the new Laker ownership said no. No more max deals/options. The Rich Paul statement said they had enjoyed a good partnership with Jeanie Buss and the Lakers. Then they release the statement saying we'll be monitoring if the Lakers make moves to become a contender. The Lakers respond by signing Jake LaRavia and DeAndre Ayton LMAO. Also reports they want to hold onto 2027 cap space. Basically telling Lebron we don't care what you want.

Lebron has major main character syndrome. I bet he's butthurt but not sure if he has enough power to ask out of LA after opting in. Or if it's worth the headache.

edit: also it's obvious playing with Luka Doncic is a major beating if you're a good offensive player and not a scrub like DFS or DJJ. Good players want the ball, not to stand around in the corner while some guy plays Harden ball.


RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST - omahen - 07-03-2025

(07-03-2025, 02:52 PM)RoyTarpleysGhost Wrote: edit:  also it's obvious playing with Luka Doncic is a major beating if you're a good offensive player and not a scrub like DFS or DJJ.  Good players want the ball, not to stand around in the corner while some guy plays Harden ball.

I agree with the first part of your comment, so only related to last paragraph.

I don't think Kyrie was standing in the corner watching Luka play when in Dallas. I also don't think he hated playing with Luka. LeBron was actually begging Lakers to get someone who could take the burden of creation.