(11-27-2025, 05:48 AM)F Gump Wrote: Two parts to my answer ...

1  I have not been addressing the financial possibilities at all. None of what I have said has had any real connection to the extension question. But if I go there now: I don't think extending him is going to be a viable option, because I don't think either side will like the other's numbers. Here's how I think it is most likely to play out.
....MAVS - Because of his injury history, DL will have to "prove" to them he can stay healthy before the they make a bigger commitment. But imo it's way too late in the timeline for that, because the window for an extension opens and closes next summer. The BEST he can offer by that point would be that he's been healthy for how long - a half season in a row? - and we can't even assume that much will be true. Mavs offer will come in fairly low, but of course they will want him to extend at that number. 
....DL - He won't want to be locked into a lower number and will ask for a big number. And frankly, is Dallas the team he can trust his medical maintenance and recovery to their staff? So he will decline the extension they offer, play out season 4, and try to prove himself in season 4 after which he will be RFA. It will play out like Josh Green did, and with similar angst in the discussions featuring major alarmism over how the Mavs blew it and now he will cost $200M or so.
....Once he's a RFA in summer 2027, both sides will see how much the rest of the NBA values him, and both sides will figure out how they want to navigate things from there. IMO no way to avoid that, and it brings no guarantees. The Mavs will only have to pay what someone else will offer. Who knows what others will be willing to pay? But all of that makes his long-term future in Dallas a bit uncertain, and based on his inability to stay healthy, rightly so.

2 However --- My "position" has nothing to do with extensions or next contracts (because they aren't at that crossroads yet, and likely won't even be there until the summer of 2027). And there's no good way to talk trade either -- the Mavs don't know his long-term value, other teams don't know it either, and neither do we, so everything with him is in a long-term holding pattern to see what emerges.

What my position is -- ie the point I have been making -- is that, with his injury history being so ongoing, and no end in sight, anyone who is planning on him as a MAVS' BUILDING BLOCK for the future and as a FUTURE STAR CENTER is ignoring all the facts up to this point. So far he is always just another injury waiting to happen. He is also a looming financial nightmare to deal with in 2027 from which we can't be sure he remains a Mav. And his past production has been so limited minutes-wise that we certainly can't say his future presence will give us many years of top-tier center play -- out of the 4000 minutes per year at center, will he even be able to ever play as many as 1500 in a season? If we guesstimate that in future years he will be playing 40-55 games each season (due to injuries and injury "management"), and will average 20-25 mpg, the UPPER extreme of that has the Mavs only getting 1375 minutes from him per season. That's not enough minutes to be a solution at C, or to pay big money for, or to get major impact from.

SUMMARY of my position is this - We can't and shouldn't make plans that say "We have the center position filled with a great center solution for the long term, because we have Lively -- and he's only 21."

Is it possible that it all changes in the future and he's healthy and plays full time? Sure, it's possible. But that's not what we should expect at all, because he has NEVER been able to do that, ever.

(12-01-2025, 02:47 PM)F Gump Wrote: I think what you're saying is that the long-term future with Lively is very uncertain, and it's not smart to stake out a position yet on what needs to be done with him. Either way.

If so, that's my thinking too. I'm in no rush to write him off or trade him, but I'm also not convinced he's going to be a MAJOR part of the solution in the long term. There's a lot of "wait and see" with me.

Where I could be conflicted [I don't think this will happen, but what if ...] would be what if --
1 Lively returns in January or sooner, and is the very best version of himself for the rest of the season -- which would mean he's fully healthy, playing every game (or very close to it, with a rest game on a B2B at some points), playing 20-25 mpg, and really great defense, AND
2 At draft time 2026, a team with a TOP FIVE pick comes hard to trade for him, offering their top 5 pick plus a player (salary match or cheaper) who is very usable, preferably young. I wouldn't be interested in a future pick(s) which could turn out to be junk, but if it's a top pick in THIS draft, already set, then do you say no? That would be hard to let him go in that context of him being healthy and playing great, but at the same time, in light of the track record, wouldn't that be the very definition of selling high (and before having to agonize on an extension)?

(12-02-2025, 03:03 PM)Winter Wrote: One of the things currently in play now is that Max Christi is a real threat off catch-and-shoot 3's (45%). With Klay's recent improvement (now up to 36%), our guards are putting together much better perimeter offensive play these last few games. BWill is the only guard in the rotation shooting under the league average.

Our problem now is the forward position

Caleb Martin : An astounding 9.1%
PJ Washington: 33%
Cooper Flagg: 25%
Naji Marshall: 31%
A. Davis: 29.6%

These may get better.... or they may not. But this needs to improve in order to win games. There were a lot of open looks against Denver. Maybe Nembhard helps with this.

(12-02-2025, 04:14 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: Good percentages on our wings.  It is a concern.  It is one of the reasons why I think Marshall may not be a long term fit despite the good he provides.   I hope we find a wing/guard to fill in these minutes.   Maybe Max can fill in at three at times too.

(12-02-2025, 04:48 PM)RoyTarpleysGhost Wrote: I was wondering if I would try Klay at the 3.   Nembhard, Christie, Klay, Flagg, AD I think might be our best lineup.  Bwill, DLo, Naji, PJ, Powell/Gafford off the bench.

(12-04-2025, 09:21 AM)Smitty Wrote: My guess is Gafford will now be out a couple weeks after reaggravating his ankle once again. It means you don't have to talk to AD about anything in regard to what works best, 4/5, he'll be the starting Center for a while, period. Powell has fortunately held his own, and Cisse has been just fine. PJ can play some small ball 5 in certain matchups and game situations. Speaking of PJ, he was questionable leading up to Wednesday's game before being ruled out. I expect him back against OKC Friday. The rotation is pretty straight forward now that we know who's out for a while.

Nembhard | Williams
Christie | Russell
Washington | Thompson
Flagg | Marshall
Davis | Powell

(12-04-2025, 09:21 AM)Smitty Wrote: My guess is Gafford will now be out a couple weeks after reaggravating his ankle once again. It means you don't have to talk to AD about anything in regard to what works best, 4/5, he'll be the starting Center for a while, period. Powell has fortunately held his own, and Cisse has been just fine. PJ can play some small ball 5 in certain matchups and game situations. Speaking of PJ, he was questionable leading up to Wednesday's game before being ruled out. I expect him back against OKC Friday. The rotation is pretty straight forward now that we know who's out for a while.

Nembhard | Williams
Christie | Russell
Washington | Thompson
Flagg | Marshall
Davis | Powell

(12-04-2025, 10:12 AM)mvossman Wrote: I'm starting to think you might want to swap PJ and Marshall in that lineup.  PJ should be on the court every minute Flagg is off and I would not mind seeing some small ball with a frontcourt of PJ/Flagg.

(12-04-2025, 12:26 PM)RoyTarpleysGhost Wrote: I don't like Naji and Flagg on the court together either.  Ideally you have a wing to plug in there but the Mavs don't.

(12-04-2025, 12:38 PM)mvossman Wrote: Yeah, I don't think they have the long term solution at the 3 right now.  Eventually they are going to have to do something about the roster balance issue.  Of their top 6 guys three are centers and two are power forwards.