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+--- Thread: Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST (/showthread.php?tid=3856)
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RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - michaeltex - 06-06-2025
(06-06-2025, 12:48 PM)Ghost of Podkolzin Wrote: Are you sure? I'm showing them $34.3m under the first apron.
for current season Per sportrac...
2024-2025 total salaries $183,191,333
1st apron $178,132,000 (8,059,333 Over)
2nd Apron $188,931,000 (2,739,667 Under)
But contracts are up for Lopez, Prince, Sims and Trent Jr. so (theoretically) after July 1st they will have potentially up to $29M additional cap space to play with. Not sure how that helps NYKs land Giannis though.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - SleepingHero - 06-06-2025
(06-06-2025, 12:48 PM)Ghost of Podkolzin Wrote: Are you sure? I'm showing them $34.3m under the first apron.
The difference is the calculators are not factoring in the cap holds for Brook Lopez (34.5), Gary Trent Jr. (2.3), Thanasis (2.3) and Prince (2.3). All of which put them right at the 2nd apron.
Of course, they could remove those cap holds, but by doing so they lose their rights and maneuverability for them. Doesn't really matter so much for a guy like Thanasis or Prince, or even Trent Jr. But for Lopez that's a pretty big deal. They'd have to work out a deal for Lopez beforehand so they are far enough under the 2nd apron for them to absorb a guy like KAT plus Bridges.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - SleepingHero - 06-06-2025
(06-06-2025, 01:58 PM)michaeltex Wrote: for current season Per sportrac...
2024-2025 total salaries $183,191,333
1st apron $178,132,000 (8,059,333 Over)
2nd Apron $188,931,000 (2,739,667 Under)
But contracts are up for Lopez, Prince, Sims and Trent Jr. so (theoretically) after July 1st they will have potentially up to $29M additional cap space to play with. Not sure how that helps NYKs land Giannis though.
They are not a 2nd apron team this season. The Middleton trade solved that.
But Giannis extended and his contract increased by about 6 mil from this past season. Same with Dame. That's 12 mil right there. Both of which affect their next season cap hold and why they are budding right up the 2nd apron threshold and must adhere to such rules if they want to be doing massive trades for massive salary.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - omahen - 06-06-2025
(06-06-2025, 02:06 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: They are not a 2nd apron team this season. The Middleton trade solved that.
But Giannis extended and his contract increased by about 6 mil from this past season. Same with Dame. That's 12 mil right there. Both of which affect their next season cap hold and why they are budding right up the 2nd apron threshold and must adhere to such rules if they want to be doing massive trades for massive salary.
Even if they do keep Lopez, he will get significantly less than 34 mil. So his 34 mil cap hold is not really that relevant. According to spotrac they are 40 mil under the 2nd apron in July (not counting cap holds). They can't offer much to their vet min guys without bird rights, so Trent and Prince are likely gone. Max they can give to them (cumulative) is the MLE, but that would lock them at 1st apron, so unlikely.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - SleepingHero - 06-06-2025
(06-06-2025, 02:17 PM)omahen Wrote: Even if they do keep Lopez, he will get significantly less than 34 mil. So his 34 mil cap hold is not really that relevant. According to spotrac they are 40 mil under the 2nd apron in July (not counting cap holds). They can't offer much to their vet min guys without bird rights, so Trent and Prince are likely gone. Max they can give to them (cumulative) is the MLE, but that would lock them at 1st apron, so unlikely.
I understand what I am doing might seem like semantics, however it is important. The cap hold is 100% relevant as it needs to be addressed (along with other holds), BEFORE a trade with NYK is finalized.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - Ghost of Podkolzin - 06-06-2025
(06-06-2025, 02:34 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: I understand what I am doing might seem like semantics, however it is important. The cap hold is 100% relevant as it needs to be addressed (along with other holds), BEFORE a trade with NYK is finalized.
What does that entail, waiving Trent et al?
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - SleepingHero - 06-06-2025
(06-06-2025, 02:48 PM)Ghost of Podkolzin Wrote: What does that entail, waiving Trent et al?
It’s not a very hard obstacle. It’s just renouncing the rights of said players. Lopez is the one that has the highest hold and matters the most. If MIL is ready to move on from him, then just letting him go frees up that 34.5 mil hold and they can just operate as normal.
But all of that has to be decided on before any trade is finalized. And if they are going to absorb more salary than they send out, they will be hard capped at the 1st apron.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - Ghost of Podkolzin - 06-06-2025
(06-06-2025, 01:56 PM)omahen Wrote: Not Detroit one, imho
He's not as good as his twin, but still a much better roster piece than Bridges.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - Ghost of Podkolzin - 06-06-2025
(06-06-2025, 03:08 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: It’s not a very hard obstacle. It’s just renouncing the rights of said players. Lopez is the one that has the highest hold and matters the most. If MIL is ready to move on from him, then just letting him go frees up that 34.5 mil hold and they can just operate as normal.
But all of that has to be decided on before any trade is finalized. And if they are going to absorb more salary than they send out, they will be hard capped at the 1st apron.
I think they're looking at something like JB/Hart/4frps for Giannis. It gives them JB and a defensive/rebounding stud in Hart. The 4frps gives them a future. Definitely other pieces need to work on the 4frps.
Thoughts?
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - F Gump - 06-06-2025
I think Giannis to NY is just a NY fantasy. They don't really have the assets to entice MIL to do that swap. Others can (and will) do way better, if (and it's a huge IF) MIL decides to trade him. I'm not convinced they will.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - DallasMaverick - 06-06-2025
(06-06-2025, 03:59 PM)Ghost of Podkolzin Wrote: I think they're looking at something like JB/Hart/4frps for Giannis. It gives them JB and a defensive/rebounding stud in Hart. The 4frps gives them a future. Definitely other pieces need to work on the 4frps.
Thoughts?
Which 4 picks were you referring to?
Or swaps?
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/45465499/sources-knicks-interested-speaking-jason-kidd-opening
I’m thinking that Dolan makes the Knicks job unattractive, but maybe not.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - Ghost of Podkolzin - 06-06-2025
(06-06-2025, 04:12 PM)DallasMaverick Wrote: Which 4 picks were you referring to?
Or swaps?
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/45465499/sources-knicks-interested-speaking-jason-kidd-opening
I’m thinking that Dolan makes the Knicks job unattractive, but maybe not.
I'm not sure. I think they'd definitely have to move Bridges (and probably Robinson) for picks.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - Ghost of Podkolzin - 06-06-2025
(06-06-2025, 04:06 PM)F Gump Wrote: I think Giannis to NY is just a NY fantasy. They don't really have the assets to entice MIL to do that swap. Others can (and will) do way better, if (and it's a huge IF) MIL decides to trade him. I'm not convinced they will.
Perhaps. But if they do have to move JB, they'll need Kidd to be a player/coach lol
Seriously, if they want Kidd AND Giannis, they'll end up with KAT/Giannis/OG and build around them. Getting Giannis would make them a much more desirable landing for FAs.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - Ghost of Podkolzin - 06-06-2025
(06-06-2025, 04:12 PM)DallasMaverick Wrote: Which 4 picks were you referring to?
Or swaps?
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/45465499/sources-knicks-interested-speaking-jason-kidd-opening
I’m thinking that Dolan makes the Knicks job unattractive, but maybe not.
It seems like Dolan has been letting Leon Rose and Worldwide Wes run the show.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - Chicagojk - 06-06-2025
You have heard some reports that this offseason may be the craziest yet with trades. It is funny though, I have listened to some national podcasts discussing offseason trades and it is very tricky to find matches in trades. It seems a lot hard than previous years.
I wonder if this will limit trades in total due to these limitations? Or due to these limitations does this create some off the wall type of trades just to get them to work?
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - F Gump - 06-06-2025
(06-06-2025, 07:25 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: You have heard some reports that this offseason may be the craziest yet with trades. It is funny though, I have listened to some national podcasts discussing offseason trades and it is very tricky to find matches in trades. It seems a lot hard than previous years.
I wonder if this will limit trades in total due to these limitations? Or due to these limitations does this create some off the wall type of trades just to get them to work?
Great point.
There are some pressure points on teams/GMs in play, that leads to those predictions that some big things SURELY must happen. Some obvious ones are Giannis in MIL (with a decaying roster, no picks, and Lillard sidelined for a year or longer), KD in PHX (with a decaying roster, no picks, and Apron 2 handcuffs), and who knows what in BOS (decaying roster, an Apron 2 noose, and Tatum sidelined forever). Of course nothing truly MUST happen if the team is willing to just ride it out, so there's that.
It's not just issues with star players altering the landscape. The Apron 2 hard cap has become a real thing to deal with and some teams are right there, with real roster needs, but being strangled, and looking for whatever solution it takes. CLE may be in this box along with BOS and PHX, wanting to shed salary to get below A2, and there may be another 6-8 teams (incl DAL) who will have needs they can't fill because they are in danger of, and will make sure not to go over, A2.
At the same time, all teams feel the pressure of the clock ticking on whatever roster they have. Contracts are only commitments for a few years, then expire. If your weakness doesn't get fixed fast, can you retain key players until you can reload assets to fix it later? FWIW - every team gets a full draft set reload every 7 years, no matter how bad it is at the moment. But can we wait, or will we deplete our coming assets before we get there?
Cap room spending may be very limited. Will there be bargains to be had on players better than MLE, but no one can offer it? Spotrac projects only 1 team with max cap room (BKN) and 3 others (CHI, DET, MEM) with the ability to do a deal just over MLE (in the 15-20M range). Then what? And which of these teams with cap room (if any) will "sell it" (so to speak) by agreeing to take a good player from a team with big payroll problems?
I wonder if a better description of the upcoming summer could be "unpredictable."
One example - the talk is Giannis to NY or some other places that look like looming contenders right now. But won't MIL want to reload in a major way -- and could they get a better haul from a team that is NOT yet a contender but has a load of picks and is tired of losing? NY can offer some so-so talent to keep MIL mediocre, but who has better picks for MIL? Unpredictable.
It could be very busy. And some teams might even hunker down and ride it out, with far less activity than we expect. It should be interesting.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - FireNicoHarrison - 06-06-2025
I don't think NY will never trade Jalen, probably the package include KAT&picks so it's clearly not enough.
The Nova guys are too close , maybe KAT & OG+picks.
Not Jalen, Bridges or Hart for sure.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - DanSchwartzgan - 06-07-2025
(06-06-2025, 07:25 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: You have heard some reports that this offseason may be the craziest yet with trades. It is funny though, I have listened to some national podcasts discussing offseason trades and it is very tricky to find matches in trades. It seems a lot hard than previous years.
I wonder if this will limit trades in total due to these limitations? Or due to these limitations does this create some off the wall type of trades just to get them to work?
It feels to me a bit like musical chairs. Every day new teams seem to pop up for Giannis and KD. San Antonio, New York, Minnesota, Toronto and Houston get the most prominent mentions, but there are probably others. But, when the music runs out there are too many players and not enough chairs. That doesn't even begin to address the lesser names (some of whom are pretty big names) or the outgoing players that might be involved in any Giannis or KD trade.
If nothing else happens but KD and Giannis move and Boston sheds a big salary, it was already a pretty big summer. I don't think the rules make trades impossible. I've seen viable deals for these guys from all of these destinations. But, it may not be the traditional 'expiring contracts and picks' type of deal. Real players with real contracts have to be outgoing and some of these are big names in their own right. Randall? Towns? Green? Did Toronto get Ingram just to have expendable matching salary? The outgoing names being fairly prominent only adds to the perceived 'craziness'. And what do the musical chair losers do once Giannis and KD are off the table?
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - DanSchwartzgan - 06-07-2025
FWIW, I asked Google AI who Dallas would most likely trade for and what the package would be. The answer was Coby White. The package was PJ/Hardy/2031 First.
White is UFA in a year and not extendable at a number he'd accept. So, Dallas is taking the risk here that Chicago doesn't want to take. Even if Chicago keeps White, the AI answer pointed out they may not want to commit to big money for both Giddey and White (so one or the other and Giddey gets paid this summer).
I think if Dallas wants to be serious about contending, it has to have a second creator. It can't just a fringe guy who can hold down the fort for Kyrie. The playoffs have shown you have to have someone who can get his own shot late in a playoff game when Kyrie is doubled (or prevent that double from coming because everyone else on the floor is too good). PJ and a first is a lot to give up for someone who could walk. But, moving PJ helps the roster make more sense. You keep your center depth and keep AD at his preferred spot. Flagg can move to PF when AD is out and you still have plenty of guys who can play the three between Naji, Klay and Martin.
There is a $7mm spread between incoming and outgoing salary. When you add back a minimum, you are under the second apron using Kyrie's current number. At that point, you can focus on the extension. You'll need the number to come in lower in 26/27 because the roster will get very expensive when you resign White. You get some help when Klay goes away in 27/28, but that is also the year Lively gets paid. Still, White with the rest of what is here makes this a serious contender. Kyrie, White, Flagg, AD and Gafford/Lively backed up by Christie, Klay/Martin, Naji and Gafford/Lively is stout. You'll have some issues with back court D, but you'll have a fantastic back line defense when people get around Kyrie or White. Additionally, you will probably keep one of them on the floor at all times. So, that is only 12-16 minutes of overlap. More often than not, it will be one of them with Christie or Klay more than it will be Kyrie and White together.
PJ and that first is pretty expensive for someone who can walk. But, this is the level of player we need and we aren't the only team that needs what he offers. I think it is smarter to take the risk and get what you need rather than taking a lesser player and hoping you have enough.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - HoosierDaddyKid - 06-07-2025
(06-06-2025, 01:47 PM)omahen Wrote: They are not a 2nd apron team and neither is NY. Milwaukee is actually significantly (40 mil) under the second apron. If the deal is made in July
In any case, a deal between Milwaukee and NY would be significantly complicated.
Milwaukee doesn't control their picks, so tanking makes little sense. But they can't be competitive, as Lillard is out, Lopez will most likely leave (getting too old anyway), Portis has a player option and can also leave. Kuzma is basically their best player for next season. Towns is a lesser player than Giannis. Brunson as good as he is, is also worse. I am affraid tanking is the only realistic option for Milwaukee. But they need their picks for that.
Their 2026 pick is controlled by Pels (pick swap). 2027 stays in Milwaukee only, if both their and Pels pick and in top4. Otherwise it goes either to Pels or Atlanta. One option Milwaukee has is to take a gap year in 2026, if they can get the pick swap with Pels back. Tank for a top pick and then try to become competitive again.
NY on the other hand, is facing a short rotation anyway. If they trade two rotation players for Giannis, they will have a hard time replacing one guy. So I think there must be a lot of moving pieces, like getting young players for Milwaukkee, rotation players for NY and draft assets. NY can't trade any of their FRP. I think KAT needs to be involved, I can't see them compete without Brunson and Bridges.
So perhaps something like this:
KAT to Pels for Murphy and McCollum (Pels might see KAT as a good fit next to Zion, if they really intend to keep him) and draft assets
Bridges to (for example) to Detroit for Ivey and Thompson. Some other minor salaries would need to be included to make the math work.
Mil: Ivey, Thompson, McCullom, picks (including their swap with Pels)
NY: Giannis, Murray
Det: Bridges
Looks extremely underwhelming for Giannis, no matter what draft capital is included.
If I were Detroit, I wouldn't give up Ivey and Thompson for Bridges. Bridges is a good player but overrated, IMO. Thompson may not be as good as his twin yet, but he will get there. Ivey was having a career season before he broke his leg. They should be part of their improving young core moving forward.