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RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - F Gump - 05-27-2025
(05-26-2025, 10:21 PM)david75090 Wrote: Ball has played 35 out of 82 games in each of the last two seasons. The Mavs want a starting PG to tide them over until a re-signed Kyrie gets back in the later part of next year. That's the position that needs to be filled. Personally, I'd be looking to get someone who might, possibly, fill that spot.
Well yeah, so would we all -- that's what everyone's been talking about. Your criticism of Ball isn't saying anything that isn't already well noted, and understood, and well-discussed, and factored into the mix already!
The most recent name is Chris Paul. Tyus Jones was noted earlier. Ball is only a piece of a bigger puzzle to make names like Paul and Jones possible. (BTW, Giddey, who you proposed, isn't even an option. Impossible. Mavs have no way to get him, or any FA who can't be signed for 5.7M TxpMLE or less, as has been mentioned multiple times.) In the post immediately before yours, the idea included BOTH Ball and one of either Paul or Jones. It did not propose Ball as a standalone solution.
If you don't think Paul and/or Jones would be suitable, bring something else to the table.
But here's the thing. Right now, the Mavs are over A2 and can only offer minimum salary, so even Paul and Jones may be out of reach. The Kyrie redo helps by letting them slip under A2, but at the redo numbers being rumored, the Kyrie redo alone doesn't open any extra spending opportunity too. What can you do with minimums?
That's where trading for Ball comes in. Using a Martin-Hardy-Powell package, it opens OTHER doors for another better PG solution (by adding payroll room and roster space, tools they lack now). They could then have the 5.7MLE to use to maybe attract Paul or Jones or ideally both. And as a bonus, it leaves an obvious possibility and hope that Ball might help too, but even if he ends up a useless carcass, what was lost? Are you despairing over some super valuable player they could have otherwise landed for Martin-Hardy-Powell? It even works if it's only Martin + one of the other 2 as outgoing, although I'd prefer all 3.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - SleepingHero - 05-27-2025
(05-26-2025, 11:08 AM)Smitty Wrote: Marc Stein says Dallas is going to at least “explore” whether or not it could acquire Jrue Holiday; a more reasonable target that Dallas has maintained interest in is Lonzo Ball.
Another name to monitor for the Mavs is Chris Paul
@TheSteinLine
I think Jrue is about as distressed of an asset as they come. About to be 35. Has a massive extension kicking in, the Celtics is without Tatum next year which all but kills their chances at being a contender, and most importantly they are facing a 500 million dollar bill they need to pay given the bloated salary.
Jrue's contract would be the type of contract Boston would PAY to get off of to a tanking team to absorb that salary. The Mavs would be forced to give up at least 1 solid rotation player acquiring Jrue.
Then we actually get into the mechanics of such a deal. Unfortunately, Jrue's deal starts him at 32.4 mil. That number just doesn't fit cleanly with the Mavs current expendable contracts. As such, any Jrue deal would require the Mavs to send out a bunch of smaller deals. The contracts that make the most sense to me are Gafford, Martin, and Hardy.
That deal gives the Mavs 29.9 M of salary out, but taking in Jrue's 32.4 in. It just barely misses the amount needed by 2.4mil to be legal. Which means the Mavs has to send out yet another contract which could be either OMax or Powell and we call it a day right?
Well... not quite. Sure this trade now becomes legal and the Mavs now have Jrue Holiday for a bunch of spare parts, but they'd have 11 guys signed (including Flagg) and they'd be well into the 2nd apron after this deal with no realistic way of ducking under it this season barring a massive Kyrie paycut.
Now we have to get creative. Again, the Mavs SHOULD be at the advantage here. They are doing Boston a huge favor. It will not be easy for a competitive team to just absorb Jrue's salary and remain competitive. So, if the Mavs must send out 4 guys to get Jrue, what about making this a 3 team trade and they get both targets they are after?
BOS: Hardy+Vucevic+Pat Williams
CHI: Porzingis+Gafford+Martin+Naji+Scheierman
DAL: Holiday+Ball
Now this is a massive trade. 8 player trades don't just happen. Last time it has happened was 2011 (according to google). But I think Chicago is funnily enough the best trade partner here to make it work for all teams.
Why CHI does it:
CHI is ready to move on from Vucevic. They've tried and failed so many times the last 2 1/2 years to move on from him and each time they couldn't make a deal happen. His value is a massive negative. They also have a bloated contract in Pat Williams as well that is anchoring them down. Although Williams is a serviceable player, he is overpaid and often injured. In this trade they get a 1 year refresh with another european center, several wings to replace what they've lost this past season with Lavine, Williams, and DeRozan.
Why BOS does it:
I mean in 1 trade Boston cures their salary issues while maintaining a semblance of their current team identity. Need I say more? Sure, they are downgrading here in terms of Vucevic vs. KP, but that is typically what happens when you are trading for guys who are making less than your current guys. The real draw is that Vuc is making 10 mil less than KP this season, is an ironman compared to KP, is able to shoot the 3, AND is expiring. They also get a switchable forward who is a defensive minded guy that can fill the hole Tatum's absence will have this year. Hardy is just a sweetener. Truthfully though. Boston is only doing this deal because it gets them under the 2nd apron with an emergency release valve to below the 1st apron next summer when they can get off of Vucevic's deal.
Why DAL does it:
This trade does put the Mavs into 2nd apron hell. After signing Flagg, they'd be about 3.4 mil over the 2nd apron, with 2 needed roster spots to fill. Adding those in they'd be around 9 mil over the 2nd apron. Theoretically if Kyrie took that paycut (which would start him at just over 35 mil) the Mavs could avoid the 2nd apron. But I would push back on the idea of doing everything possible to get below the 2nd apron this summer IF this trade went through. Mostly because the Mavs team is basically set at this point. In this deal they get 2 incredibly talented guards for spare parts and have consolidated the roster. If they re-signed Exum and Kai Jones, their roster would look like:
Kyrie/Ball/Exum
Holiday/Klay/Williams
Flagg/Christie
AD/PJ/OMax
Lively/Powell/Jones
Their biggest issue is obviously health, but that has ALWAYS been the issue around a team whose core is built upon AD. And by next season, if they extend PJ at a presumed 20 mil a year, they'd be just barely over the 2nd apron by about 3 mil, which is very easy to maneuver out of. If Nico is serious about his grandmaster plan that caused him to blow up a title contender in the middle of the night, then I can see him saying the 2nd apron is tolerable for 1 season. So much so that they could theoretically front load Kyrie's contract for this upcoming season, and have it gradually decrease. Lets say they gave him 42 mil for next season with -8% decreases, then the Mavs would only be over the 2nd apron by 400k.
Again, lots of options. But if they are wanting to trade for Jrue, then I don't see why they shouldn't go all out. At least this deal protects the picks for each team.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - F Gump - 05-27-2025
Thanks for the thought and ideas. I didn't check the trade match for any of the teams. Nor weigh the desirability of the details for each team.
But my general takeaway is that in theory JH sounds good, but I wonder about another massive salary, as well as another aging vet whose game may have started to slide already. If JH of 5 years ago when he went to MIL, then he makes a lot of sense, THAT'S the guy.
It should be mentioned Mavs can't send out multiple players for 1 (aggregate salaries for matching) and be over A2 at the end of the trade, or any time thereafter. Doing them in such a way to satisfy that restriction, that's a big issue in any of these deals.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - FireNicoHarrison - 05-27-2025
Yes, Boston has to pay to unload Jrue right now... No way we gift them assets unless another Silver diktat.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - david75090 - 05-27-2025
(05-27-2025, 01:13 AM)F Gump Wrote: That's where trading for Ball comes in. Using a Martin-Hardy-Powell package, it opens OTHER doors for another better PG solution (by adding payroll room and roster space, tools they lack now). They could then have the 5.7MLE to use to maybe attract Paul or Jones or ideally both. And as a bonus, it leaves an obvious possibility and hope that Ball might help too, but even if he ends up a useless carcass, what was lost? Are you despairing over some super valuable player they could have otherwise landed for Martin-Hardy-Powell? It even works if it's only Martin + one of the other 2 as outgoing, although I'd prefer all 3.
I'm of the school that believes, just because it's possible to do something, it doesn't mean you should. Perhaps the Bulls want all the players the Mavs don't want in exchange for a player they don't want. Both teams have their reasons, or perhaps it's the fans. Like KP. From the outside looking in, KP looks like a world beater. When he's on your team, "wonder what we can get for him in trade?". We're proposing being saddled with Ball's contract as opposed to being saddled with the contracts of those we want to trade.
Now we say "Paul or Jones" who we might possibly get. Possibly they want to take a minimum contract from the Mavs as opposed to a minimum contract from some other team. Anyone willing to pay more, they'll probably sign with.
Personally, I think the PF known as AD is the most valuable redundant part that could be traded for the most by a competent GM. Fire Nico, hire a competent GM to figure it out. Let that person get on the GM-wire and see who's available. So far looks like the Mavs are looking at minimums and broken down retreads. Is that how fans are looking at it and being satisfied? Mavs need a competent young PG to fit into the Flagg time line. Sooner than later. The names being mentioned are for treading water. Reminds me of "the Mavs need a center" discussions in days of yore. Always comes back to "who?". Mavs need a PG. Who? I demand that someone come up with a name in the next five seconds. "Make it so!"
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - F Gump - 05-27-2025
75090, I STILL DON'T SEE A REASON TO DISLIKE THE BALL IDEA, AND TO THE POINTS MADE ...
1 Personally I have no issue with trading AD, for the various reasons you name. Trade AD for a very talented PG like Holiday from 5 years ago? Sure, count me in.
2 I don't think any AD trade is possible, with Nico in charge, and I don't think Nico is getting fired this summer, so I've moved on. Nico's gotta go asap. Nuff said.
3 As you note, Paul or Jones COULD opt for minimum with Mavs, and if they did, that's great.
4 As you note further, the Mavs might not even get in the bidding if they only have minimum to offer -- which is why I'd favor a low-value-asset move to open up TxpMLE room. Why is that not good? (I'm open to a better use of the junk that opens up cap room and roster space, if you have one.)
5 I accept that TxpMLE might not be enough for Paul or Jones, or CHI might not be interested in this trade for Ball, but it seems feasible and worth exploring to me.
6 A real GM can actually explore those questions with agents BEFORE chasing preparatory moves, just to make sure there's a benefit waiting.
7 I would rather have "maybe Ball can play" on my bench, and being coached by the PG whisperer here, rather than any of Hardy, Martin, or Powell, none of whom can offer any help at PG (and not sure they help in any other way either).
8 You speak of the Mavs being "saddled with" Ball's contract, and THAT is pure nonsense, relatively speaking, because it's lower than what's sent away, that being the whole point, and it's just for this season.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - Winter - 05-27-2025
So the above post pretty much covers it. Hat tip to FG for putting a ribbon on it.
There's a certain clarity to #5. I'm right there.
Sadly, there's almost nothing to talk about because we all just have to wait. Maybe draft night changes that, maybe not. I'll be replaying CF videos until then.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - SleepingHero - 05-27-2025
Honestly, just thinking about salary implications and roster spots, I wonder how gettable Nikola Topic is from the Thunder.
He tore his ACL before debuting this year. I don’t see how they have space for a rookie guard. Plus they have THREE picks this year alone.
They just have too mid first rounders and not enough roster spots. Topic is a big guard that apparently can play off the ball. He isn’t particularly fast, but I remember him getting top 5 buzz in last years draft.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - Winter - 05-27-2025
OKC has to get rid of picks. Not only do they have a three this draft, they have more than that next year!!
Their phones are going to be really busy. Looking at their draft picks now... and it appears they have accumulated multiple picks all the way through 2030. With that much draft capital, it's hard to imagine them out of playoffs anytime in the near future.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - Chicagojk - 05-27-2025
(05-27-2025, 07:08 AM)Winter Wrote: OKC has to get rid of picks. Not only do they have a three this draft, they have more than that next year!!
Their phones are going to be really busy.
Yeah I assume they may move two of them. Push them down the road. At the moment they don’t need more young talent to develop.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - david75090 - 05-27-2025
Ball's career stats from ESPN
https://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/4066421/lonzo-ball
IF he was fully healthy, I'm not seeing him as a solution to anything. I would prefer to go in another direction.
I think there's some tea-leaf-reading that needs to be done. Looking at his stats, Lakers for a couple of years, Pelicans for a couple of years, Bulls for a couple of years. To know him is to trade him? The idea of Ball is better than the actual Ball? Is there something about him that makes teams what to trade him? It's why I brought up KP before. Once a team sees what they have, they're dissatisfied. Is Ball in that same category? Seems like a great player to have on your team, but once you have him on your team, you go to looking to trade him.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - SleepingHero - 05-27-2025
(05-27-2025, 09:08 AM)david75090 Wrote: Ball's career stats from ESPN
https://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/4066421/lonzo-ball
IF he was fully healthy, I'm not seeing him as a solution to anything. I would prefer to go in another direction.
Let’s pretend Lonzo was fully healthy (which is a stretch but makes the discussion easy)
You don’t see how a 6’6 pass first, defensive minded guard, who thrives getting open looks in transition and can hit 3 as a solution to what the Mavs currently have available at guard? Which is Kyrie and Brandon Williams?
I mean, I get not liking Lonzo due to health concerns, but to write him off on his style of play is an interesting view to say the least.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - numnuts23 - 05-27-2025
I think Orlando is the team to target - they need a Center and have a handful of Guards who just haven't fit with Paolo at the moment.
Anthony Black
Cole Anthony
Jett Howard
Jalen Suggs
Corey Joseph
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - Chicagojk - 05-27-2025
I think you let Cooper show/tell you what the next move is. Don't go hard in with a 35 year old Drew. Especially with Kyrie out for a lot of next year. If Cooper is real and ready, then you can look to make an aggressive move at the deadline. If he needs some time and the team isn't quite ready, you take a longer range view. Let Cooper show you first and that will dictate your future moves.
I do expect them to get a guard or two. I also expect either PJ or Gafford to be moved. So maybe that is considered a big move, but a good GM will use Cooper and his readiness as a guiding board. We are no longer using AD as that guiding board imo.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - F Gump - 05-27-2025
(05-27-2025, 07:08 AM)Winter Wrote: OKC has to get rid of picks. Not only do they have a three this draft, they have more than that next year!!
Their phones are going to be really busy. Looking at their draft picks now... and it appears they have accumulated multiple picks all the way through 2030. With that much draft capital, it's hard to imagine them out of playoffs anytime in the near future.
Yes, all that draft capital looks great on paper. But then when you get there, it can be nothing more than some unneeded randos who will clog up your already-full roster and you have to give them all guaranteed deals.
As for whether that OKC situation opens a door for the Mavs to get another pick, I wouldn't see value in having a low FRP in this thin draft, as I think the potential for ending up with junk cluttering their already-overcrowded roster is high. NEXT year is the draft you want to be taking chances.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - SleepingHero - 05-27-2025
Another idea, I wonder how easy it will be to move Martin for a late first round pick. Picks 22 and below make less than a vet min deal. Trading Martin for say Orlando’s 25th pick or one of brooklyns #26 or #27 pick makes going into FA much more tenable.
It frees up about 7.5 mil for the Mavs, and drops them into the 1st apron with about 4 mil of room before the 2nd apron.
Plus Brooklyn has a TPE that can absorb Martin’s salary perfectly.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - F Gump - 05-27-2025
(05-27-2025, 09:08 AM)david75090 Wrote: Ball's career stats from ESPN
https://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/4066421/lonzo-ball
IF he was fully healthy, I'm not seeing him as a solution to anything. I would prefer to go in another direction.
I think there's some tea-leaf-reading that needs to be done. Looking at his stats, Lakers for a couple of years, Pelicans for a couple of years, Bulls for a couple of years. To know him is to trade him? The idea of Ball is better than the actual Ball? Is there something about him that makes teams what to trade him? It's why I brought up KP before. Once a team sees what they have, they're dissatisfied. Is Ball in that same category? Seems like a great player to have on your team, but once you have him on your team, you go to looking to trade him.
Even though I think there were circumstances that have caused teams to be willing to move him (LA was because they had to trade everyone to make the AD trade work, NO because they didnt feel they could afford his salary, CHI presumably due to the injury limitations), I do COMPLETELY AGREE Ball has also been overrated and not nearly as impactful as teams imagined. I've never thought the bang would live up to the hype. Not really a fan for the most part.
And it's possible he's so injured he would never play in Dallas, in which case I think it's a GOOD trade anyhow because to me the value is in the salary dump provided. (OTOH, if Nico the Idiot got Ball for a player with value, such as PJ or Gaff, then that's awful.)
My Ball expectations as a player would be low. Basically I would hope for SOME health, and I aee a flawed player who can get the ball up the floor well and safely, defend and rebound, and offer some size at PG with what that brings. I don't think THOSE expectations are overly optimistic (because there are about none). Whether the Mavs expectations and reasoning would be similar, who knows.
But also with those very low hopes, I would wonder if J Kidd might have some ability to help him actually improve his game as a big PG with those natural advantages. JK knows the game and is good with PGs. If Ball has something in him that can be brought out, Kidd is likely to find it.
FWIW I would see a similar idea with Ben Simmons, who I would never pay more than minimum. But BS doesnt provide the salary dump possibilities, so then any value rests totally on his game with all the flaws. Not as attractive overall to me.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - numnuts23 - 05-27-2025
Look at this mess of a trade - yikes
https://fadeawayworld.net/nba-trade-rumors/new-blockbuster-5-team-trade-idea-mavericks-add-porter-jr-and-holiday-celtics-shed-salary
Proposed Trade Details
Dallas Mavericks Receive: Michael Porter Jr., Jrue Holiday, Andre Drummond (Sign-and-Trade)
Boston Celtics Receive: Caleb Martin
Philadelphia 76ers Receive: Klay Thompson, P.J. Washington
Denver Nuggets Receive: Kelly Oubre Jr., Daniel Gafford
Brooklyn Nets Receive: Max Christie, Naji Marshall
I guess the idea would be Jrue at PG once Kyrie returns and Kyrie at the 2?
Jrue/Williams
Kyrie
Flagg/MPJ
AD/Omax/Powell
Lively/Drummond
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - F Gump - 05-27-2025
(05-27-2025, 10:35 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: Another idea, I wonder how easy it will be to move Martin for a late first round pick. Picks 22 and below make less than a vet min deal. Trading Martin for say Orlando’s 25th pick or one of brooklyns #26 or #27 pick makes going into FA much more tenable.
It frees up about 7.5 mil for the Mavs, and drops them into the 1st apron with about 4 mil of room before the 2nd apron.
Plus Brooklyn has a TPE that can absorb Martin’s salary perfectly.
Actually, every lower payroll team has a "TPE" available where they could get Martin or the others, since the MLEs can be used as a TPE now.
But I'm leery of being stuck with the low 2025 FRP unless there's someone VERY desirable left which seems so unlikely. I'd rather have a future pick. There's no cap advantage in adding someone to your payroll who's of no real value, just because he's a cheap contract.
BTW all 1st rounders are guaranteed MORE than minimum (2-year vet) amount unless you pay less than the 120% that is in almost all rookie deals.
RE: Trade & FA 2025-26: - SleepingHero - 05-27-2025
(05-27-2025, 11:19 AM)F Gump Wrote: Actually, every lower payroll team has a "TPE" available where they could get Martin or the others, since the MLEs can be used as a TPE now.
But I'm leery of being stuck with the low 2025 FRP unless there's someone VERY desirable left which seems so unlikely. I'd rather have a future pick. There's no cap advantage in adding someone to your payroll who's of no real value, just because he's a cheap contract.
BTW all 1st rounders are guaranteed MORE than minimum (2-year vet) amount unless you pay less than the 120% that is in almost all rookie deals.
Oh very true! Forgot about the new wrinkle where the MLE can be a TPE now.
However I know I’ve said it before but I am a bit more optimistic on this draft than you. Although I get your reasoning. A bad player is dead salary no matter how you cut it. The further you get in any draft the more likely you get a bad player statistically.
But even if the Mavs made the trade for another pick, they’d still need to fill Martin’s roster spot. And this summer that’d most likely be some sort of vet min on their last legs. I’d rather take a swing on a guy in this draft not only cause I value a younger dude than a vet min, but it also helps salary wise if the Mavs are signing a vet <7 years experience.