PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (4-3) vs #5 DAL (3-4) - Printable Version +- MavsBoard (https://www.mavsboard.com) +-- Forum: Boards (https://www.mavsboard.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=1) +--- Forum: Dallas Mavericks and the NBA (https://www.mavsboard.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=2) +--- Thread: PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (4-3) vs #5 DAL (3-4) (/showthread.php?tid=999) |
RE: PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (0-2) vs #5 DAL (2-0) - Arioch - 05-27-2021 (05-27-2021, 11:33 AM)KillerLeft Wrote:Quote:Interesting that fivethirtyeight.com only has Mavs at 56% chance of winning the series, even though they're up 2-0.Yes, very. fivethirtyeight.com is basically a pure stats site--they are not affected by the gambling lines. The 56% chance is based on their RAPTOR stat, which: "Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses; it is based entirely on our NBA player projections, which estimate each player’s future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players." In other words, it doesn't really take into account the fact that the Clippers have been clearly out-coached for two games, and that the Mavs *as a team* have clearly outplayed the Clippers as a team for those same two games. If you switch to their ELO forecast, which is actually tied to team results then the Mavericks currently have an 85% chance of taking the series. RE: PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (0-2) vs #5 DAL (2-0) - Hooper21 - 05-27-2021 (05-26-2021, 10:56 AM)fifteenth Wrote: LOL, I didn't mean to like that! Nice D-Steve/Lebron's mom reference RE: PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (0-2) vs #5 DAL (2-0) - Hogmelon - 05-27-2021 (05-27-2021, 11:29 AM)DallasMaverick Wrote: Interesting that fivethirtyeight.com only has Mavs at 56% chance of winning the series, even though they're up 2-0. (05-27-2021, 11:32 AM)embellisher Wrote: It's like 2011 all over again. (05-27-2021, 11:33 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: Yes, very. (05-27-2021, 12:16 PM)Arioch Wrote: fivethirtyeight.com is basically a pure stats site--they are not affected by the gambling lines. If one assumes that all remaining games in the Mavs/Clippers series will be decided by a coin flip, using either a "fair" coin or a coin that has been precisely "weighted" in the Clippers' favor by a specific amount, then the following probabilities would apply: P(g) = probability that Clippers win the game P(S) = probability that Clippers win the series P(g) P(S) 0.5 18.75% 0.55 25.62% 0.6 33.70% 0.65 42.84% 0.68619 50.00% 0.7 52.82% 0.71534 56.00% 0.75 63.28% 0.8 73.73% Obviously, this series will be decided on the basketball court rather than by coin flips [and P(g) is surely not constant from game to game], but this exercise should at least prove how much a fish needs a bicycle. RE: PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (0-2) vs #5 DAL (2-0) - ItsGoTime - 05-27-2021 Honestly, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. This series has a 2011 AND reverse 2007 feel. All depends on how it plays out from here. We could sweep them and it would feel like the 2011 LaL series. They could win 1 and it would feel like a reverse 2007 GSW series where we are the perfect storm team to beat this particular team at this time. Of course it could also go the way of the 2006 Miami series...UGH!!! RE: PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (0-2) vs #5 DAL (2-0) - StrandedOnBeauboisHill - 05-27-2021 To be fair, 538's sports models have never turned out to be all that accurate. Sports data doesn't lead to very accurate predictive models nearly as much as polling data. RE: PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (0-2) vs #5 DAL (2-0) - ClutchDirk - 05-27-2021 https://twitter.com/MarkG_Medina/status/1397980439696920577 If Rondo is calling out our plays and the Clippers still cant stop us then they seem to be screwed... RE: PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (0-2) vs #5 DAL (2-0) - ClutchDirk - 05-27-2021 https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1397974738065035266 RE: PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (0-2) vs #5 DAL (2-0) - ClutchDirk - 05-27-2021 https://twitter.com/MavsLead/status/1397957397214289924 RE: PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (0-2) vs #5 DAL (2-0) - ClutchDirk - 05-27-2021 https://twitter.com/fishsports/status/1397981637791604737 RE: PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (0-2) vs #5 DAL (2-0) - ClutchDirk - 05-27-2021 https://streamable.com/76k7kn RE: PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (0-2) vs #5 DAL (2-0) - Hypermav - 05-27-2021 (05-27-2021, 02:01 PM)ClutchDirk Wrote: https://streamable.com/76k7kn You flail, Luka bulldozes. RE: PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (0-2) vs #5 DAL (2-0) - SleepingHero - 05-27-2021 (05-27-2021, 02:04 PM)Hypermav Wrote: You flail, Luka bulldozes. I love how Pat is so unaware. Sure, Luka definitely flails, I wonder why.... RE: PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (0-2) vs #5 DAL (2-0) - Kammrath - 05-27-2021 (05-27-2021, 11:25 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: Man, I'm still nervous. As you should be. We have seen how hot and cold this Mavs team has been all season. Basically if they do not outshoot their opponent at the three, then the Mavs lose. The odds are probably pretty good the Mavs outshoot LAC in 2 of the next 5 games, but if the Mavs cannot win at least one at home, then psychology sets in too. Game 3 (of course) is the single most important game for both teams. LAC wins and they are in some ways back in the driver's seat....DAL wins and it is basically over. HUGE game. RE: PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (0-2) vs #5 DAL (2-0) - fifteenth - 05-27-2021 (05-27-2021, 02:11 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: I love how Pat is so unaware. Sure, Luka definitely flails, I wonder why.... RE: PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (0-2) vs #5 DAL (2-0) - Hogmelon - 05-27-2021 (05-27-2021, 03:18 PM)fifteenth Wrote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eiIXNNfpgLY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4CntJuLvh4 RE: PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (0-2) vs #5 DAL (2-0) - TXBamanut - 05-27-2021 (05-27-2021, 02:01 PM)ClutchDirk Wrote: https://streamable.com/76k7kn When you are literally getting embarrassed and dominated personally in front of the entire world on worldwide TV, AND getting told about it...and your team member is telling you exactly what is coming and you can't do anything about it... You have to fight back in the only way you can... it's really pathetic, when you think about it. RE: PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (0-2) vs #5 DAL (2-0) - ClutchDirk - 05-27-2021 https://twitter.com/CallieCaplan/status/1397969496065859591 RE: PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (0-2) vs #5 DAL (2-0) - SleepingHero - 05-27-2021 (05-27-2021, 03:20 PM)Hogmelon Wrote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eiIXNNfpgLY That trailer is so aggressively 90's it made me want to call moviefone and ask what the showtimes were. RE: PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (0-2) vs #5 DAL (2-0) - ClutchDirk - 05-27-2021 https://twitter.com/Farbod_E/status/1398029989107306497 RE: PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (0-2) vs #5 DAL (2-0) - dirkfansince1998 - 05-27-2021 (05-27-2021, 05:21 PM)ClutchDirk Wrote: https://twitter.com/Farbod_E/status/1398029989107306497 Free Zubac! |