PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (4-3) vs #5 DAL (3-4)

[Arioch]

Interesting that fivethirtyeight.com only has Mavs at 56% chance of winning the series, even though they're up 2-0.

Yes, very. 

I don't understand gambling very much, but could this be a response to all the money pouring in on the Mavericks? I read somewhere around here that they're the second most popular bet right now.

fivethirtyeight.com is basically a pure stats site--they are not affected by the gambling lines.

The 56% chance is based on their RAPTOR stat, which: "Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses; it is based entirely on our NBA player projections, which estimate each player’s future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players." In other words, it doesn't really take into account the fact that the Clippers have been clearly out-coached for two games, and that the Mavs *as a team* have clearly outplayed the Clippers as a team for those same two games.

If you switch to their ELO forecast, which is actually tied to team results then the Mavericks currently have an 85% chance of taking the series.

[Hooper21]

LOL, I didn't mean to like that!

Nice D-Steve/Lebron's mom reference

[Hogmelon]

Interesting that fivethirtyeight.com only has Mavs at 56% chance of winning the series, even though they're up 2-0.

It's like 2011 all over again.

Yes, very. 

I don't understand gambling very much, but could this be a response to all the money pouring in on the Mavericks? I read somewhere around here that they're the second most popular bet right now.

fivethirtyeight.com is basically a pure stats site--they are not affected by the gambling lines.

The 56% chance is based on their RAPTOR stat, which: "Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses; it is based entirely on our NBA player projections, which estimate each player’s future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players." In other words, it doesn't really take into account the fact that the Clippers have been clearly out-coached for two games, and that the Mavs *as a team* have clearly outplayed the Clippers as a team for those same two games.

If you switch to their ELO forecast, which is actually tied to team results then the Mavericks currently have an 85% chance of taking the series.

If one assumes that all remaining games in the Mavs/Clippers series will be decided by a coin flip, using either a "fair" coin or a coin that has been precisely "weighted" in the Clippers' favor by a specific amount, then the following probabilities would apply:

P(g) = probability that Clippers win the game

P(S) = probability that Clippers win the series

P(g)               P(S)
0.5               18.75%
0.55             25.62%
0.6               33.70%
0.65             42.84%
0.68619        50.00%
0.7               52.82%
0.71534      56.00%
0.75             63.28%
0.8               73.73%

Obviously, this series will be decided on the basketball court rather than by coin flips [and P(g) is surely not constant from game to game], but this exercise should at least prove how much a fish needs a bicycle.

[ItsGoTime]

Honestly, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. This series has a 2011 AND reverse 2007 feel. All depends on how it plays out from here. 

We could sweep them and it would feel like the 2011 LaL series. They could win 1 and it would feel like a reverse 2007 GSW series where we are the perfect storm team to beat this particular team at this time.

Of course it could also go the way of the 2006 Miami series...UGH!!!

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

To be fair, 538's sports models have never turned out to be all that accurate.  Sports data doesn't lead to very accurate predictive models nearly as much as polling data.

[ClutchDirk]

https://twitter.com/MarkG_Medina/status/...9696920577

If Rondo is calling out our plays and the Clippers still cant stop us then they seem to be screwed...

[ClutchDirk]

https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1397974738065035266

[ClutchDirk]

https://twitter.com/MavsLead/status/1397957397214289924

[ClutchDirk]

https://twitter.com/fishsports/status/13...7791604737

[ClutchDirk]

https://streamable.com/76k7kn

[Hypermav]

https://streamable.com/76k7kn

You flail, Luka bulldozes.

[SleepingHero]

You flail, Luka bulldozes.

I love how Pat is so unaware. Sure, Luka definitely flails, I wonder why....

[Kammrath]

Man, I'm still nervous. 

Outside of a few, most of the national people I follow are still not counting the Clippers out of this series, and most are still viewing the series through the lens of "when will the Clippers start playing?"

I can't decide if I think the Clippers are all sizzle, no steak, and the Mavs are just better, or if the other shoe is about to drop on them hard.

As you should be. We have seen how hot and cold this Mavs team has been all season. Basically if they do not outshoot their opponent at the three, then the Mavs lose. The odds are probably pretty good the Mavs outshoot LAC in 2 of the next 5 games, but if the Mavs cannot win at least one at home, then psychology sets in too. 

Game 3 (of course) is the single most important game for both teams. LAC wins and they are in some ways back in the driver's seat....DAL wins and it is basically over. HUGE game.

[fifteenth]

I love how Pat is so unaware. Sure, Luka definitely flails, I wonder why....

[Hogmelon]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eiIXNNfpgLY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4CntJuLvh4

[TXBamanut]

https://streamable.com/76k7kn

When you are literally getting embarrassed and dominated personally in front of the entire world on worldwide TV, AND getting told about it...and your team member is telling you exactly what is coming and you can't do anything about it... You have to fight back in the only way you can...

it's really pathetic, when you think about it.

[ClutchDirk]

https://twitter.com/CallieCaplan/status/...6065859591

[SleepingHero]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eiIXNNfpgLY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4CntJuLvh4

That trailer is so aggressively  90's it made me want to call moviefone and ask what the showtimes were.

[ClutchDirk]

https://twitter.com/Farbod_E/status/1398029989107306497

[dirkfansince1998]

https://twitter.com/Farbod_E/status/1398029989107306497

Free Zubac!