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(05-05-2021, 12:36 PM)Hogmelon Wrote: Out of the 37 games in which the Mavs have had a lower 3P% than their opponent, the Mavs have won 9 and lost 28 [W% = .243].
Out of the 28 games in which the Mavs have had a higher 3P% than their opponent, the Mavs have won 28 and lost 0 [W% = 1.000].
I REPEAT:
The Mavs record so far this season in games in which they have made a higher percentage of 3-point attempts than their opponent is ...
28 wins and ZERO losses.
That is a great stat. But if you take random three teams, how much is the situation different?
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(05-05-2021, 12:36 PM)Hogmelon Wrote: The Mavs have played 65 games so far this season. They have won 37 and lost 28 [W% = .569].
Out of those 65 games, the Mavs have had a lower 3P% than their opponent in 37 games, and they have had a higher 3P% than their opponent in the other 28 games.
Out of the 37 games in which the Mavs have had a lower 3P% than their opponent, the Mavs have won 9 and lost 28 [W% = .243].
Out of the 28 games in which the Mavs have had a higher 3P% than their opponent, the Mavs have won 28 and lost 0 [W% = 1.000].
I REPEAT:
The Mavs record so far this season in games in which they have made a higher percentage of 3-point attempts than their opponent is ...
28 wins and ZERO losses.
(05-05-2021, 12:44 PM)omahen Wrote: That is a great stat. But if you take random three teams, how much is the situation different?
Here are the stats for the teams that are currently in the top ten of the Western Conference:
TEAM W-L when 3P% > opponent W-L when 3P% < opponent W-L when 3P% = opponent
Mavericks 28-0 (1.000) 9-28 (.243) 0-0
Jazz 36-5 (.878) 11-13 (.458) 0-0
Suns 28-5 (.848) 19-13 (.594) 0-0
Lakers 25-5 (.833) 12-23 (.343) 0-0
Nuggets 29-7 (.806) 13-15 (.464) 1-0
Spurs 23-6 (.793) 8-27 (.229) 0-0
Clippers 36-10 (.783) 8-12 (.400) 0-0
Grizzlies 23-7 (.767) 9-25 (.265) 0-0
Trail Blazers 24-9 (.727) 12-19 (.387) 0-1
Warriors 26-12 (.684) 7-21 (.250) 0-0
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(05-05-2021, 03:41 PM)Hogmelon Wrote: Here are the stats for the teams that are currently in the top ten of the Western Conference:
Thanks. So we can conclude Mavs are unstoppable when threes are falling, while only Spurs depend more on their shooting to win. One conclusion we could draw - if you put excellent shooters on the team it might lead to more victories, even if defense is not great.
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(05-05-2021, 03:41 PM)Hogmelon Wrote: Here are the stats for the teams that are currently in the top ten of the Western Conference:
TEAM W-L when 3P% > opponent W-L when 3P% < opponent W-L when 3P% = opponent
Mavericks 28-0 (1.000) 9-28 (.243) 0-0
Jazz 36-5 (.878) 11-13 (.458) 0-0
Suns 28-5 (.848) 19-13 (.594) 0-0
Lakers 25-5 (.833) 12-23 (.343) 0-0
Nuggets 29-7 (.806) 13-15 (.464) 1-0
Spurs 23-6 (.793) 8-27 (.229) 0-0
Clippers 36-10 (.783) 8-12 (.400) 0-0
Grizzlies 23-7 (.767) 9-25 (.265) 0-0
Trail Blazers 24-9 (.727) 12-19 (.387) 0-1
Warriors 26-12 (.684) 7-21 (.250) 0-0
I blame Tim.
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(05-05-2021, 03:41 PM)Hogmelon Wrote: 19-13 (.594)
Suns record when other teams shoot better from three.
DANG. I might be underrating the Suns. Is it possible they are the title favs and I just can't come to admit that??
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(05-05-2021, 12:36 PM)Hogmelon Wrote: 19-13 (.594)
(05-05-2021, 04:11 PM)Kammrath Wrote: Suns record when other teams shoot better from three.
DANG. I might be underrating the Suns. Is it possible they are the title favs and I just can't come to admit that??
Yeah, the Suns have won 84.8% of the games that they have had the better 3P%, and 59.4% of the games that they have not. The Mavs have won only 56.9% of ALL their games (regardless of the outcome of the 3P% battle)!
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(05-05-2021, 03:41 PM)Hogmelon Wrote: Here are the stats for the teams that are currently in the top ten of the Western Conference:
TEAM W-L when 3P% > opponent W-L when 3P% < opponent W-L when 3P% = opponent
Mavericks 28-0 (1.000) 9-28 (.243) 0-0
Jazz 36-5 (.878) 11-13 (.458) 0-0
Suns 28-5 (.848) 19-13 (.594) 0-0
Lakers 25-5 (.833) 12-23 (.343) 0-0
Nuggets 29-7 (.806) 13-15 (.464) 1-0
Spurs 23-6 (.793) 8-27 (.229) 0-0
Clippers 36-10 (.783) 8-12 (.400) 0-0
Grizzlies 23-7 (.767) 9-25 (.265) 0-0
Trail Blazers 24-9 (.727) 12-19 (.387) 0-1
Warriors 26-12 (.684) 7-21 (.250) 0-0
Another way to look at this is that teams like the Suns, Jazz, Nuggets, Clipper & Trail Blazers run systems that are far less dependent on 3 pointers falling at a high % than teams like the Mavs, Grizz, Spurs & Warriors.
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05-05-2021, 04:39 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-05-2021, 04:41 PM by Time Machine Dirk.)
I like the third category 3P%=opponent. At least this stat tells me that the Nuggets will probably win every game against the Trail Blazers in which their 3P% is tied, which is very important...I guess... 
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(05-05-2021, 03:41 PM)Hogmelon Wrote: Here are the stats for the teams that are currently in the top ten of the Western Conference:
TEAM W-L when 3P% > opponent W-L when 3P% < opponent W-L when 3P% = opponent
Mavericks 28-0 (1.000) 9-28 (.243) 0-0
Jazz 36-5 (.878) 11-13 (.458) 0-0
Suns 28-5 (.848) 19-13 (.594) 0-0
Lakers 25-5 (.833) 12-23 (.343) 0-0
Nuggets 29-7 (.806) 13-15 (.464) 1-0
Spurs 23-6 (.793) 8-27 (.229) 0-0
Clippers 36-10 (.783) 8-12 (.400) 0-0
Grizzlies 23-7 (.767) 9-25 (.265) 0-0
Trail Blazers 24-9 (.727) 12-19 (.387) 0-1
Warriors 26-12 (.684) 7-21 (.250) 0-0
(05-05-2021, 03:47 PM)omahen Wrote: Thanks. So we can conclude Mavs are unstoppable when threes are falling, while only Spurs depend more on their shooting to win. One conclusion we could draw - if you put excellent shooters on the team it might lead to more victories, even if defense is not great.
I was just throwing out some numbers and leaving it to everyone else to draw any relevant conclusions.
If one is merely interpreting the numbers above, it seems that the Mavs are more deserving than the Spurs of mavsluvr's "Live by the 3PT percentage, die by the 3PT percentage" label.
75.7% of the Mavs' 37 wins have been games in which they won the 3P% battle, and 100% of the Mavs' 28 losses have been games in which they lost the 3P% battle.
74.2% of the Spurs' 31 wins have been games in which they won the 3P% battle, and 81.8% of the Spurs' 33 losses have been games in which they lost the 3P% battle.
TEAM X = (W% when 3P% > opponent) Y = (W% when 3P% < opponent) K = X/Y
Mavericks 1.000 .243 4.11
Jazz .878 .458 1.92
Suns .848 .594 1.43
Lakers .833 .343 2.43
Nuggets .806 .464 1.74
Spurs .793 .229 3.59
Clippers .783 .400 1.96
Grizzlies .767 .265 2.90
Trail Blazers .727 .387 1.88
Warriors .684 .250 2.74
The Mavs' winning percentage when winning the 3P% battle is 4.11 times their winning percentage when losing the 3P% battle.
The Spurs' winning percentage when winning the 3P% battle is 3.59 times their winning percentage when losing the 3P% battle.
FWIW. YMMV. BYOB. Blah blah blah, etc.
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(05-05-2021, 03:41 PM)Hogmelon Wrote: Here are the stats for the teams that are currently in the top ten of the Western Conference:
TEAM W-L when 3P% > opponent W-L when 3P% < opponent W-L when 3P% = opponent
Mavericks 28-0 (1.000) 9-28 (.243) 0-0
Jazz 36-5 (.878) 11-13 (.458) 0-0
Suns 28-5 (.848) 19-13 (.594) 0-0
Lakers 25-5 (.833) 12-23 (.343) 0-0
Nuggets 29-7 (.806) 13-15 (.464) 1-0
Spurs 23-6 (.793) 8-27 (.229) 0-0
Clippers 36-10 (.783) 8-12 (.400) 0-0
Grizzlies 23-7 (.767) 9-25 (.265) 0-0
Trail Blazers 24-9 (.727) 12-19 (.387) 0-1
Warriors 26-12 (.684) 7-21 (.250) 0-0
(05-05-2021, 04:39 PM)Time Machine Dirk Wrote: I like the third category 3P%=opponent. At least this stat tells me that the Nuggets will probably win every game against the Trail Blazers in which their 3P% is tied, which is very important...I guess...
Yeah, TMD, ya gotta make those totals add up right!
Small sample sizes be damned!!!
Once upon a time (i.e., April 21, 2021), Portland and Denver played a thrilling game in which both teams made exactly one-third of their 3-point attempts, with the Nuggets finally prevailing by a score of 106 to 105!
https://www.basketball-reference.com/box...10POR.html
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Interesting. But which team shoots a better % from deep is not a random thing. Neither is it wholly dependent on who has the better shooters. Mavs have done it just 28 times in 65 outings, which is the least number of any team on that list.
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05-05-2021, 06:19 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-05-2021, 06:20 PM by Dahlsim.)
(05-05-2021, 05:46 PM)Jommybone Wrote: Interesting. But which team shoots a better % from deep is not a random thing. Neither is it wholly dependent on who has the better shooters. Mavs have done it just 28 times in 65 outings, which is the least number of any team on that list.
Good observation.
My point was that 3-point dependency speaks also to the coaching system's built in dependency factor.
I can easily see the teams offensive play selections, playing rotations and minute distribution lending itself to a higher live by the 3 die by the 3 factor.
Then there is even roster construction which itself is in part based on the way a teams intends to play basketball.
To be fair this also says something about the team's defensive system since the stat is not about simply shooting a high 3 point % but also defending well enough so that the opponent shoots a lower % than you do.
What is the teams dependency factor on winning the 3 point battle? It might be informative to consider the Eastern conference as well and what it suggests about the better and lesser teams.
It's an interesting statistic to consider in the age of pace and space with the higher than ever 3 point shooting numbers across the entire league.
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(05-05-2021, 03:41 PM)Hogmelon Wrote: Here are the stats for the teams that are currently in the top ten of the Western Conference:
TEAM W-L when 3P% > opponent W-L when 3P% < opponent W-L when 3P% = opponent
Mavericks 28-0 (1.000) 9-28 (.243) 0-0
Jazz 36-5 (.878) 11-13 (.458) 0-0
Suns 28-5 (.848) 19-13 (.594) 0-0
Lakers 25-5 (.833) 12-23 (.343) 0-0
Nuggets 29-7 (.806) 13-15 (.464) 1-0
Spurs 23-6 (.793) 8-27 (.229) 0-0
Clippers 36-10 (.783) 8-12 (.400) 0-0
Grizzlies 23-7 (.767) 9-25 (.265) 0-0
Trail Blazers 24-9 (.727) 12-19 (.387) 0-1
Warriors 26-12 (.684) 7-21 (.250) 0-0
(05-05-2021, 06:19 PM)Dahlsim Wrote: My point was that 3-point dependency speaks also to the coaching system's built in dependency factor.
I can easily see the teams offensive play selections, playing rotations and minute distribution lending itself to a higher live by the 3 die by the 3 factor.
Then there is even roster construction which itself is in part based on the way a teams intends to play basketball.
To be fair this also says something about the team's defensive system since the stat is not about simply shooting a high 3 point % but also defending well enough so that the opponent shoots a lower % than you do.
What is the teams dependency factor on winning the 3 point battle? It might be informative to consider the Eastern conference as well and what it suggests about the better and lesser teams.
It's an interesting statistic to consider in the age of pace and space with the higher than ever 3 point shooting numbers across the entire league.
Here are the stats for the teams that are currently in the top ten of the Eastern Conference:
TEAM W-L W-L when 3P% > opponent W-L when 3P% < opponent W-L when 3P% = opponent
Bucks 41-24 (.631) 27-3 (.900) 14-21 (.400) 0-0
76ers 44-21 (.677) 30-6 (.833) 13-15 (.464) 1-0
Nets 43-23 (.652) 33-7 (.825) 10-16 (.385) 0-0
Hawks 36-30 (.545) 31-7 (.816) 5-22 (.185) 0-1
Heat 35-31 (.530) 22-6 (.786) 12-25 (.324) 1-0
Pacers 30-34 (.469) 22-7 (.759) 8-27 (.229) 0-0
Celtics 34-31 (.523) 27-11 (.711) 7-20 (.259) 0-0
Hornets 32-33 (.492) 23-10 (.697) 9-23 (.281) 0-0
Knicks 37-28 (.569) 27-12 (.692) 10-16 (.385) 0-0
Wizards 30-35 (.462) 18-11 (.621) 12-24 (.333) 0-0
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05-05-2021, 07:47 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-05-2021, 07:48 PM by Jommybone.)
Dahl, you identify a few of the many variables. The one I was thinking of is how well the 3-point line is defended. I have watched with great aggravation as Luka and WCS barely challenge 3-point shooters within reach. I have noted and cheered the energy guys (including Josh Richardson) hustling to get into reach of shooters who were left wide open through no fault of their own. I know Carlisle emphasizes this. And yet . . . Luka.
But the kid is unbelievable nonetheless. I worship the ground he walks on. I just can’t wait till he starts defending with smarts and throws the ball away a little less.
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(05-05-2021, 03:41 PM)Hogmelon Wrote: Here are the stats for the teams that are currently in the top ten of the Western Conference:
TEAM W-L when 3P% > opponent W-L when 3P% < opponent W-L when 3P% = opponent
Mavericks 28-0 (1.000) 9-28 (.243) 0-0
Jazz 36-5 (.878) 11-13 (.458) 0-0
Suns 28-5 (.848) 19-13 (.594) 0-0
Lakers 25-5 (.833) 12-23 (.343) 0-0
Nuggets 29-7 (.806) 13-15 (.464) 1-0
Spurs 23-6 (.793) 8-27 (.229) 0-0
Clippers 36-10 (.783) 8-12 (.400) 0-0
Grizzlies 23-7 (.767) 9-25 (.265) 0-0
Trail Blazers 24-9 (.727) 12-19 (.387) 0-1
Warriors 26-12 (.684) 7-21 (.250) 0-0
(05-05-2021, 07:43 PM)Hogmelon Wrote: Here are the stats for the teams that are currently in the top ten of the Eastern Conference:
TEAM W-L W-L when 3P% > opponent W-L when 3P% < opponent W-L when 3P% = opponent
Bucks 41-24 (.631) 27-3 (.900) 14-21 (.400) 0-0
76ers 44-21 (.677) 30-6 (.833) 13-15 (.464) 1-0
Nets 43-23 (.652) 33-7 (.825) 10-16 (.385) 0-0
Hawks 36-30 (.545) 31-7 (.816) 5-22 (.185) 0-1
Heat 35-31 (.530) 22-6 (.786) 12-25 (.324) 1-0
Pacers 30-34 (.469) 22-7 (.759) 8-27 (.229) 0-0
Celtics 34-31 (.523) 27-11 (.711) 7-20 (.259) 0-0
Hornets 32-33 (.492) 23-10 (.697) 9-23 (.281) 0-0
Knicks 37-28 (.569) 27-12 (.692) 10-16 (.385) 0-0
Wizards 30-35 (.462) 18-11 (.621) 12-24 (.333) 0-0
At this moment, the New York Knicks have exactly the same W-L record as the Mavs (37-28).
Although the numbers above would seem to indicate that the Knicks are not as dependent upon winning the 3P% battle as the Mavs, it is interesting that the Knicks boast not only the third-best 3P% in the entire NBA (39.1%), but also the NBA's BEST (i.e., lowest) 3P% allowed (33.8%).
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(05-05-2021, 07:47 PM)Jommybone Wrote: Dahl, you identify a few of the many variables. The one I was thinking of is how well the 3-point line is defended. I have watched with great aggravation as Luka and WCS barely challenge 3-point shooters within reach. I have noted and cheered the energy guys (including Josh Richardson) hustling to get into reach of shooters who were left wide open through no fault of their own. I know Carlisle emphasizes this. And yet . . . Luka.
But the kid is unbelievable nonetheless. I worship the ground he walks on. I just can’t wait till he starts defending with smarts and throws the ball away a little less.
To digress, my biggest frustration with WCS is his slow reflex reaction time in defending "surprise" shots in the paint. If he would just put his hands up in those situations, the Mavs' paint defense would be far better. Come to think of it, the same can be said of KP. And the same could be said very consistently of Dirk's defense anywhere on the court in the years after the championship. Not a Mark Jackson fan, but "hand down, man down!" You have that superior length; put a freaking hand up.
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Heh. I like Mark Jackson as a person, player, and coach. But I can’t stand him as a commentator. Worse than Bill Walton.
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