DAL Player Rankings by NBAMATH

[Kammrath]

https://nbamath.com/crystalbasketball-ra...r-2020-21/

MVP Frontrunners: 10.50 to 12.00

     1. Luka Doncic: 11.0 (Up 0.36)

Lesser MVP Candidates: 9.50 to 10.49


All-NBA Candidates: 8.50 to 9.49


All-Star Candidates: 7.50 to 8.49

     2. Kristaps Porzingis: 7.76 (Down 0.03)

High-End Starters: 6.50 to 7.49


Solid Starters: 5.50 to 6.49

     3. Josh Richardson: 6.06 (Up 0.13)

Low-End Starters: 4.50 to 5.49

     4. Tim Hardaway Jr.: 5.27 (Up 0.07)
     5. Maxi Kleber: 4.81 (Up 0.24)
     6. Dorian Finney-Smith: 4.56 (Up 0.13)

High-End Backups: 3.50 to 4.49

     7. Dwight Powell: 4.4 (Down 0.03)
     8. Jalen Brunson: 4.13 (Down 0.01)
     9. Trey Burke: 3.62 (Up 0.09)
     10. Boban Marjanovic: 3.56 (Down 0.08)

Depth Pieces: 2.50 to 3.49

     11. Willie Cauley-Stein: 3.43 (Down 0.24)
     12. James Johnson: 2.87 (Down 0.13)
     13. Josh Green: 2.57 (Not previously graded)

End-of-Bench Pieces: 1.50 to 2.49

     14. Tyrell Terry: 2.38 (Not previously graded)
     15. Tyler Bey: 2.08 (Not previously graded)

Shouldn’t Get Minutes: 1.00 to 1.49

     16. Nate Hinton: 1.23 (Not previously graded)

[BigDirk41]

I can't believe they say Powell is a high end back up, how offensive....haha JK. I wish RC would go by this list.

[Tyler]

Two stars, a clear top-3, 6 worthy starters, and a full set of 5 bench players who would qualify as (at a minimum) high-end backups. With room for two of the depth pieces (Green and WCS) to move up a category this year, IMO. That's an impressively deep team.

[DanSchwartzgan]

 

High-End Starters: 6.50 to 7.49


Solid Starters: 5.50 to 6.49

     3. Josh Richardson: 6.06 (Up 0.13)

Low-End Starters: 4.50 to 5.49

     4. Tim Hardaway Jr.: 5.27 (Up 0.07)
     5. Maxi Kleber: 4.81 (Up 0.24)
     6. Dorian Finney-Smith: 4.56 (Up 0.13)

High-End Backups: 3.50 to 4.49

     7. Dwight Powell: 4.4 (Down 0.03)
     

When I talk about players like Hardaway not growing on trees, I'm basically saying he's pretty good and the cost to go from him at 5.27 and a high end starter at 6.5 is massive.  5.27 puts him around the 100th best player in the league.  They've done 17 teams so far and if you focus on players between 6.5 and 7.5 (High end starters), I'm not coming up with many new names.  My theory is below 6.5 isn't worth giving up THJ plus something for (lateral move) and above 7.5 is unattainable unless the all-star is UFA (like Gobert/Dipo).  Here's what you have so far between 6.5 and 7.5:

Gallinari
Collins
Smart
Walker
Hayward (injured again?)
LaVine
Drummond 
Love
Draymond
Turner
Brogdon
Dipo
Sabonis
Jaren Jackson

It is basically a couple of unattainable guys, a couple of overpaid guys and the same guys we talk about all the time.  I will try to come back and update when they finish ranking all teams, but you'll probably see FVV, SGA, Nurkic, Fox, Zion, Vuc, McCollum and the two Spurs added.  Anunoby, Harris and Gordon will be close to 6.5 based on past results.

Theoretically I like the idea of trading in-season and not worrying about cap holds and free agency.  But nothing blows me away unless someone holds a fire sale at the TDL for a soon to be FA.

[omahen]

Theoretically I like the idea of trading in-season and not worrying about cap holds and free agency.  But nothing blows me away unless someone holds a fire sale at the TDL for a soon to be FA.

Tax might be another factor. Of course Mavs can't offer cap space but we can get in a simple three way with teams like NYK and OKC that sport enough cap space to eat a contract for picks. 

GSW are at 173 mil - would they be gifting away players to avoid gazillions of tax if the product is borderline playoffs? Oubre seems like an obvious candidate
BKN - way over the tax but nothing interesting there
PHI - I am still in Harrisstan club

As for targets:
- we already covered Chicago as a very likely active TDL player. Could our assets and expirings bring LaVine or Oubre?
- SAS - would they rather take a couple of good assets like 2027 FRP and some young player(s) on cheap contracts for White or pay his extension? Once they must start the rebuild, right?
- unless they will play really well, Indy will be shopping Oladipo and Turner
- Orlando - at one point they need to start selling some of their vets as they have far too expensive team. Fournier for 6th man role? Shouldn't cost a lot. Gordon perhaps - not really a fan but perhaps he can become next Marion

[DanSchwartzgan]

They've done 17 teams so far and if you focus on players between 6.5 and 7.5 (High end starters), I'm not coming up with many new names.  My theory is below 6.5 isn't worth giving up THJ plus something for (lateral move) and above 7.5 is unattainable unless the all-star is UFA (like Gobert/Dipo).  Here's what you have so far between 6.5 and 7.5:

Gallinari
Collins
Smart
Walker
Hayward (injured again?)
LaVine
Drummond 
Love
Draymond
Turner
Brogdon
Dipo
Sabonis
Jaren Jackson

They did the rest of the teams.  Here are the additions:

SGA
Vucevic (Fournier and Gordon are just "solid starters")
Ayton
Nurkic
McCollum
DeRozan
Aldridge
Anunoby
FVV

FWIW, they rated Gobert higher than Mitchell.  Tobias was upper end of "Solid Starter".

To repeat the theory...we don't have the wherewithal to trade for anyone who is all-star level or higher...giving up THJ and some other asset for a "Solid Starter" is lateral (and also not worth disrupting what appears to be a good locker room).    If you pursue someone in free agency, you are also essentially "trading" THJ for him.  But, there are some guys in the High End Starter and All Star Candidates classes (and above) who are available.  Those include Anunoby (restricted), Collins (Restricted-Schwartz), Gobert (UFA) and Dipo (UFA)

[aguiar95]

To repeat the theory...we don't have the wherewithal to trade for anyone who is all-star level or higher...giving up THJ and some other asset for a "Solid Starter" is lateral (and also not worth disrupting what appears to be a good locker room).    If you pursue someone in free agency, you are also essentially "trading" THJ for him.  But, there are some guys in the High End Starter and All Star Candidates classes (and above) who are available.  Those include Anunoby (restricted), Collins (Restricted-Schwartz), Gobert (UFA) and Dipo (UFA)

We have to be careful about the "Doncic/Carlisle effect". THJ finished the '18-'19 season as a 4.2 (high-end backup), while never hitting more than 36% from 3-pt in hs 6- years in the league. Starting last season on the bench was terrible, moving him to starter (and getting a bunch of wide-open looks from Luka) was the right choice, bumping him to a 5.2 (low-end starter) hitting 40% from 3-pt. Also, he was our less reliable shooter (besides Maxi) in playoff time (not even going to mention his putrid defense). If we can identify a guy that can become a high-end starter (6.5-7.5) by playing with an MVP caliber point-guard, I wouldn't hesitate to throw THJ there. 

Looking at their list, it's very hard to find some REALISTIC names (Markkanen (CHI), Fournier, Gordon (ORL) and Hield (SAC) are the closets trade targets I've found). Don't think ATL will screw up Collins' extension, neither will TOR with Anunoby.

[DanSchwartzgan]

We have to be careful about the "Doncic/Carlisle effect". THJ finished the '18-'19 season as a 4.2 (high-end backup), while never hitting more than 36% from 3-pt in hs 6- years in the league. Starting last season on the bench was terrible, moving him to starter (and getting a bunch of wide-open looks from Luka) was the right choice, bumping him to a 5.2 (low-end starter) hitting 40% from 3-pt. Also, he was our less reliable shooter (besides Maxi) in playoff time (not even going to mention his putrid defense). If we can identify a guy that can become a high-end starter (6.5-7.5) by playing with an MVP caliber point-guard, I wouldn't hesitate to throw THJ there. 

Looking at their list, it's very hard to find some REALISTIC names (Markkanen (CHI), Fournier, Gordon (ORL) and Hield (SAC) are the closets trade targets I've found). Don't think ATL will screw up Collins' extension, neither will TOR with Anunoby.

So, the theory is we can take someone slightly below the standard I (arbitrarily) set because Luka will lift them up a level (like he did with THJ).  I’ll buy that.  I’ve written before that Luka seems to be giving about a .3% lift to TS%.

But, for the trade (actual trade, not letting him walk as a FA) ideas to work, you have to believe that some front office isn’t smart enough to figure out what you have figured out and simply take THJ’s new found success as who he now is.  The theory gets a bit sketchy at that point unless the other team is sending back a large contract (Harris, Hield) or desperately needs volume 3 point shooting.

The other problem I see is THJ DOES play with Luka and therefore his numbers probably are real.  If so, then they are valuable.  Last year THJ was the 15th rated SG by RPM and ranks above the 85th percentile league-wide in most compilation stats.  Do we really want to get rid of that?

Seems to me that PF is the weak spot, not THJ’s position.  The absolute best team building probably fills that void while retaining THJ.  The question then becomes who and with what assets.  At that point you are probably talking about some fan fav’s.  But, Curry was a fan fav right up to the moment he yielded Richardson.  Maybe we should start looking at deals that move Powell to the bench, retain THJ and JRich and move some other pieces for that elusive final starter.

[vfromlmf]

there are some guys in the High End Starter and All Star Candidates classes (and above) who are available.  Those include Anunoby (restricted), Collins (Restricted-Schwartz), Gobert (UFA) and Dipo (UFA)

I agree that PF/C who can play next to KP should be Mav's priority but I'm not sure I'd say Anunoby is "available" despite being RFA. I see him as part of the Raps young core along with FVV and Saikam. The Raptors are also guard heavy and short on big wings which only increases OGA's value to them. What do you see that suggests he may be attainable?

Collins is a guy I like who could get squeezed for minutes. He's surprisingly switchable. A player to watch.

[omahen]

Seems to me that PF is the weak spot, not THJ’s position.  

I agree we need one more starter, one more two way player and that Mavs seem happy with THJ. But I think Luka switchability gives us a lot of flexibility. We can sign a PG, SG, SF or PF for the spot which will be occupied by the DFS/Kleber/Powell committee once KP returns (though my bet is on DFS/Kleber). So when I speak about spots - THJ spot is a shooter/scorer/secondary creator even if without D. DFS/Maxi/Powell committee spot is a two way player with strong D.

With my extremely limited knowledge of the players personalities and relationships, I would still look to upgrade THJ spot as it might be easier. I am 99 % sure Anunoby will be resigned by Toronto since GA ship has sailed. I am not sure if Toronto would agree to a SnT but rather let us dare to greatly overpay him. I am quite sure they will be matching anything up to 20 per if he looks same as last year. If he improves, price goes up. Collins would basically cost a max offer (which of course means the price of THJ and JRich) and even that could be matched by Atlanta. I don't think we can pay his price if they decide to move him, it will cost a lot. I believe he could look great with Mavs though.

I also watched start of Chicago-OKC game yesterday and LaVine is a walking bucket. His shot looks really nice and he can create for himself. I would really go after him, I think he is at the top what we can afford with our assets. He is still young and I bet he could play at least THJ level of defense. Don't forget his agent is Duffy. I am quite sure Chicago will be bad unless they trade for a true PG. That group just looked disfunctional in all preseason games.

Two way targets for the other spot at this point would be White, Porter, Oladipo (if he improves) and Turner.

[chaparral]

So, the theory is we can take someone slightly below the standard I (arbitrarily) set because Luka will lift them up a level (like he did with THJ).  I’ll buy that.  I’ve written before that Luka seems to be giving about a .3% lift to TS%.

But, for the trade (actual trade, not letting him walk as a FA) ideas to work, you have to believe that some front office isn’t smart enough to figure out what you have figured out and simply take THJ’s new found success as who he now is.  The theory gets a bit sketchy at that point unless the other team is sending back a large contract (Harris, Hield) or desperately needs volume 3 point shooting.

The other problem I see is THJ DOES play with Luka and therefore his numbers probably are real.  If so, then they are valuable.  Last year THJ was the 15th rated SG by RPM and ranks above the 85th percentile league-wide in most compilation stats.  Do we really want to get rid of that?

Seems to me that PF is the weak spot, not THJ’s position.  The absolute best team building probably fills that void while retaining THJ.  The question then becomes who and with what assets.  At that point you are probably talking about some fan fav’s.  But, Curry was a fan fav right up to the moment he yielded Richardson.  Maybe we should start looking at deals that move Powell to the bench, retain THJ and JRich and move some other pieces for that elusive final starter.

If the plan now, is to keep both J-Rich and THJ moving forward.  What is their cost next season and how much money will be have left to trade?  I'm thinking that you cant trade either Johnson or Boban this year and bring back money into next and keep both J-Rich and THJ.  So, that leaves a dollar for dollar plus 1mil trade on the rest.  Is that correct? 

If so, could we even trade for Gobert and max him and keep J-Rich and THJ next season?  If no, then who fits into that concept of keeping J-Rich and THJ next year, Draymond Green?

[fifteenth]

I like this discussion. I think what you guys present above is the way to think about adding a high end player (or not). You gotta weigh what you gain vs what you lose somehow, not just sign "better" players regardinless of cost. Depth is important and we need a way to gauge whether retaining depth, value contracts and potential growth of current players is actually more or less valuable than adding the "better" player.

[Hypermav]

Blake Griffin was 8.93 last year.  (short term gamble)

[Mavsfan12]

Collins would be amazing on this team.  I have no idea how we could get him, but he would be almost the perfect 4 - now that GA is off the table.  I don't see any avenue that ATL trades him or lets him walk.  

I was just looking and Gallo's contract isn't fully guaranteed in 2 years.  I was wondering if they were going to be in a tax crunch with Collins/Trae on max contracts that year.  He can be waived for 5M.  Atl is doing things in a pretty good way, imo.

[SleepingHero]

Blake Griffin was 8.93 last year.  (short term gamble)

I think we're ALL underrating Griffin. 

Sure he's seen as an albatross, but so was CP3. He is injury prone, but theoretically he's still a very serious lob threat AND he can hit threes. His passing game is solid as well. I think he'd be a perfect get ESPECIALLY cause of how cheap he could be had.

[vfromlmf]

I haven't seen Griffin play yet but here are two takes from The Athletic. I fully expect him to be Blake Griffin. But the contract means the Mavs would need to deal Johnson and THJ. DFS would slot back to the three. Ripple effect would limit Kleber's minutes. Worth the risk?

Throw Griffin’s 3-of-11 shooting night out the window. I attribute his low efficiency more to rust than injury concerns. It’s been almost an entire year since Griffin has played in a game. He missed most of last season due to a lingering knee injury that required surgery. Griffin’s shot had a noticeable arc Friday. That wasn’t the case a year ago, when everything was as flat as he was as he essentially played on one leg. Friday, he made some of the best passes of the night, too. Griffin blew past rookie Obi Toppin for an and-1 layup early in the first half. Nothing about his performance signaled any concerns for his health.
__________

In 2010, Griffin returned from a broken kneecap to be named Rookie of the Year and an All-Star. In the summer of 2012, he suffered a torn meniscus in his left knee ahead of the Olympics, only to become an NBA All-Star, again, the next season. In 2016, Griffin returned from a quad injury and maintained the same numbers as he did in years prior. Three years later, nine seasons deep into his NBA career and with a plethora of injuries to his name, Griffin earned a spot on the All-NBA team.

And since no one else will say it, I will: Griffin deserves the benefit of the doubt as this season begins. If others can look at his past health woes and declare them the end of the road, I can point to how he’s returned from these setbacks and infer there’s more path to travel.

As Pistons coach Dwane Casey said: “He’s ready to go.”