The Rotation (2020-2021)

[StepBackJay]

I am not just saying this to make a case for this type of play, I am telling you all that this decision has already been made. This is how Rick runs his offense now. Since Powell went down you had a lot of shuffling around on offense through the TDL and playoffs and now offseason. Nothing I have seen in Rick's lineups or the MBT's moves has given me any indication that they are going back to Powell + KP in that starting lineup.

Good luck with that. 

We'll see.

I will caveat to say I could be wrong but there's no evidence I have seen to show me Rick is going to go back to a rim roller next to KP. I feel like this board wants to "will" Carlisle into this type of offense where KP is the new Dirk next to a 5 but I haven't seen anything to show me he wants to do that. Every step of the way he has been going more towards small-ball.

[dirkfansince1998]

Are we seriously going to let the number of bench chairs keep us from considering plan "Luka by himself"???

I'm disappointed in us.

We are a nerd community and we love numbers. Deal with it.

[fifteenth]

I will caveat to say I could be wrong but there's no evidence I have seen to show me Rick is going to go back to a rim roller next to KP. I feel like this board wants to "will" Carlisle into this type of offense where KP is the new Dirk next to a 5 but I haven't seen anything to show me he wants to do that. Every step of the way he has been going more towards small-ball.

Well, you got the wrong guy. I've been preaching 1-big with KP as the center since last preseason. This preseason, in fact, in this very thread (and other threads) I speculated that KP would be the 1-big in the starting lineup and that DP/Maxi would man the second unit. And I got a lot of pushback just for including Powell in the rotation. 

I only began to consider that Powell might start in the last few pages based on Dan's and Kam's evidence, which I find quite compelling. I find them compelling as discussion pieces about what the Mavs might be thinking, not about what I want. 

I don't buy the "no evidence" claim for two reasons. You're claiming "no evidence" for Powell in the starting lineup based on a time frame that didn't have Powell as an option. The evidence is that Powell was a starter the last time we saw him, and that the Luka/Powell pariing was lethal. Dan lists other reasons why the Mavs might be thinking this way. Kam lists lineup data that suggests the Mavs might think this way. We don't KNOW what's going to happen, but I'll say no to "no evidence". 

As far as that goes, here's one more piece of evidence that suggests returning to Powell is at least a possibility. Based on watching Sir Carlisle for more than I decade I'd suggest that 3 months or so of evidence that he likes to do things one way doesn't necessarliy mean that he'll do it that way again, especially when his chess pieces have changed a bit.

---

Are we seriously going to let the number of bench chairs keep us from considering plan "Luka by himself"???

I'm disappointed in us.

I mean, JJB could sit on the floor, if he makes the team. So there's that.

[jesusshuttlesworth82]

Man I was in a good mood today until I saw all this Powell needs to start talk.  

[StepBackJay]

I will caveat to say I could be wrong but there's no evidence I have seen to show me Rick is going to go back to a rim roller next to KP. I feel like this board wants to "will" Carlisle into this type of offense where KP is the new Dirk next to a 5 but I haven't seen anything to show me he wants to do that. Every step of the way he has been going more towards small-ball.

Well, you got the wrong guy. I've been preaching 1-big with KP as the center since last preseason. This preseason, in fact, in this very thread (and other threads) I speculated that KP would be the 1-big in the starting lineup and that DP/Maxi would man the second unit. And I got a lot of pushback just for including Powell in the rotation. 

I only began to consider that Powell might start in the last few pages based on Dan's and Kam's evidence, which I find quite compelling. I find them compelling as discussion pieces about what the Mavs might be thinking, not about what I want. 

I don't buy the "no evidence" claim for two reasons. You're claiming "no evidence" for Powell in the starting lineup based on a time frame that didn't have Powell as an option. The evidence is that Powell was a starter the last time we saw him, and that the Luka/Powell pariing was lethal. Dan lists other reasons why the Mavs might be thinking this way. Kam lists lineup data that suggests the Mavs might think this way. We don't KNOW what's going to happen, but I'll say no to "no evidence". 

As far as that goes, here's one more piece of evidence that suggests returning to Powell is at least a possibility. Based on watching Sir Carlisle for more than I decade I'd suggest that 3 months or so of evidence that he likes to do things one way doesn't necessarliy mean that he'll do it that way again, especially when his chess pieces have changed a bit.

So I would say Kamm's love for the 2 bigs is a reason why this conversation keeps ongoing. He was all in on Vucevic last year next to KP. In reality 2 7 foot bigs means one of KP/big are chasing around a PF outside. Now Powell is not Vucevic or Adams or anything like that. He is a hybrid and yet the problem is not only does he have 1 leg, he has never been able to get his outside shot going. Yes he does well in the PnR for both himself, Luka and the offense but then so does KP in the 5 spot.

I am saying that Rick has had ample opportunity to pair a non-shooting big next to KP one way or another and has opted not to do so. From my count of lineups he started a non-shooting big all of 1 time since the Powell injury. One time. Rick had Boban, WCS (sometimes) and MKG at his disposal last year and chose never to start them (save 1 Boban start) next to KP. On the entire roster the Mavs have only 3 non-shooters: Powell, WCS & Boban.

Further, when Rick runs out of players due to injury we see him go smaller, not bigger. Boban was playing great so in theory he could have ran out Boban and Maxi together in the playoffs. Boban would have played the Powell role. Instead he went ultra-small with 6'0 Trey Burke at the 2, THJ at 3, DFS at 4 and Maxi at the 5. If Rick didn't invent the 3 guard lineup he certainly popularized it. I don't see any reason or evidence we have before us that Rick is going to all of a sudden going "bigger" with a non-shooting big next to KP, especially considering we are likely getting 70% of what Powell was before.

[ItsGoTime]

I think the shift in acquiring players this offseason could for sure trigger a shift in the lineups and what we've seen with RC to this point. I don't know that anything should be easily dismissed.

[fifteenth]

So I would say Kamm's love for the 2 bigs is a reason why this conversation keeps ongoing. He was all in on Vucevic last year next to KP. In reality 2 7 foot bigs means one of KP/big are chasing around a PF outside. Now Powell is not Vucevic or Adams or anything like that. He is a hybrid and yet the problem is not only does he have 1 leg, he has never been able to get his outside shot going. Yes he does well in the PnR for both himself, Luka and the offense but then so does KP in the 5 spot.

I am saying that Rick has had ample opportunity to pair a non-shooting big next to KP one way or another and has opted not to do so. From my count of lineups he started a non-shooting big all of 1 time since the Powell injury. One time. Rick had Boban, WCS (sometimes) and MKG at his disposal last year and chose never to start them (save 1 Boban start) next to KP. On the entire roster the Mavs have only 3 non-shooters: Powell, WCS & Boban.

Further, when Rick runs out of players due to injury we see him go smaller, not bigger. Boban was playing great so in theory he could have ran out Boban and Maxi together in the playoffs. Boban would have played the Powell role. Instead he went ultra-small with 6'0 Trey Burke at the 2, THJ at 3, DFS at 4 and Maxi at the 5. If Rick didn't invent the 3 guard lineup he certainly popularized it. I don't see any reason or evidence we have before us that Rick is going to all of a sudden going "bigger" with a non-shooting big next to KP, especially considering we are likely getting 70% of what Powell was before.

The discussoin got kicked up again because of Dan's post. 

The argument that Rick didn't go with Boban, WCS or MKG with KP doesn't suggest that he wouldn't go with Powell because he has gone with Powell with KP.

This whole exercise has been based on "if Powell is healthy", so of course, if he's not, then there's that.

---

NEW POST


Want another voice?

Nick and Isaac: 

(IF all healthy!)

They think Luka, JRich, THJ, KP are locks.

They think Powell gets the nod for the 5th starter but Powell, DFS and James Johnson could all be used as starters situationally based on matchups.

[Kammrath]

Kamm's love for the 2 bigs

[loki]

I'll be curious to see if they can keep KP engaged in the offense with Powell back on the court. Part of the issue seemed to be that since Dwight can't space the floor, they ran nothing but Luka/Powell pick & rolls. The stats say that's an incredibly effective play, but will that hold up in crunch time against good defensive teams?

[Kammrath]

RE: Luka by himself

So the dirty little secret of the Mavs and Luka last year:

Luka On/Off....
1st Quarter: +0.3
2nd Quarter: +2.6
3rd Quarter: +9.1
4th Quarter: -13.0

[fifteenth]

LUKA HATE DETECTED!!!!!!!!!!!

[KillerLeft]

@"Kammrath"...

[Kammrath]

But in all seriousness, if Luka can figure out in the 4th quarter....

1) The physical side of fatigue, training, diet, stamina issues.

2) The mental side of the execution issues.

THEN I think just internally from him the Mavs can leap to a top 4 seed. 


YES, the Mavs need to keep improving the roster around Luka, but if "closing-time," "finish-him" Luka can be found then the Mavs will take a GIANT leap without any roster changes.

[KillerLeft]

@"Kammrath"...

[Dahlsim]

Go look up Klay Thompson's contract and then add in how many years he has been hurt including this next season...now compare that to Powell's supposedly CAP killing contract...

The Mavs paid for his impact on and off the court...the injury was just bad luck and yet the Mavs were able to improve their team and still have a decent path to a Max if a great player hits FA...or they have assets and expiring contracts if a great player demands a trade or team realises it needs to blow it up and tank...

The Powell hate is one of the worst agendas on this site...

It´s not hate to point out that he tore his achilles. MFFL unite. Might as well give JJB a new 5 year deal and bring back Dirk. Who cares about the on court performance, decline or injuries. We love our boys in blue.

It´s not about Powell. It´s about the injury. I would love to get peak Powell back but I don´t think it will happen. Others pointed it out multiple times. The only guy that ever came close to his pre injury level was Dominique Wilkins. Wes Matthews actually has a case for 2nd best post injury performance. The scenario a lot of guys think of as a given because of Powells work ethic would make him the first player in NBA history to get back to his pre injury level.

Reality is that even advanced medical treatments haven´t really changed the outcome. More than 1/3 never returned to the NBA. On average the ones that return are out of the league within 2-3 years. All of them played less minutes and had a worse PER. All of them except for Wilkins never reached their pre injury shooting efficiency.

 

Ouch!  Healthy is a relative NBA term I guess.  Powell was peaking at a fantastic level before injury, but at what level of himself is Powell healthy enough to start?   With smart usage can he be the rare case where he comes back with similar performance metrics?   

All of them played less minutes and had a worse PER.

[StepBackJay]

Remember before the playoffs started we all thought the Mavs were going to get another big to shore up the rotation seeing as how we were down Powell and WCS. The Mavs surprised everyone by picking up Burke. Rick likes small-ball. When in doubt he will go small.

[StepBackJay]

Just caught up on LockedOn Mavs (referenced earlier in this thread) and as mentioned Nick & Isaac said 4 starters are locked in: Luka, THJ, J Rich & KP. I agree with that idea.

They said that Powell would be a situational starter and I guess I could picture that but I still don't think he will be a full-time starter like he was pre-injury and pre-KP at the 5 explosion. It does sound like he will be ready to go, whatever that looks like. I am dying to see what he looks like and how high he can jump.

With KP being out it's definitely possible Powell could start but be minutes limited. The lineup I am picturing would be Luka, THJ, J Rich, DFS & Powell in that scenario. Personally I would rather Maxi be in Powell's spot or even play them together. Maxi did start in KP's place when he was out several times so it's conceivable he would be in the starting lineup. That lineup would be similar to the playoff lineup: Luka, THJ, J Rich, DFS & Maxi. So J Rich would be the new starter in place of the spot Burke took in the playoffs. I could definitely see that happening.

Until KP comes back we won't know for sure if Powell will join him in the starting lineup. My guess is that Rick won't commit to who is starting but he has said before he likes to eventually settle in on a consistent lineup if possible. Last year that of course was Powell in the starting lineup but it coincided with KP looking out of place.

[SweetFidelia]

I kinda see Johnson in the DeShawn Stevenson role of 2011. He started almost every game he played but only played 16 minutes a game. He brought a certain tone that we know’s been missing. Johnson might be that guy but at the 4 spot. He’s also played a ton with Richardson, so that could be beneficial out the gate. (That’s an interesting study by the way, but a clear picture emerged to me of how those 2 fit really well.)

The 5 may be a matchup decision game by game until KP is back. Or, who knows, maybe Dwight will surprise us all. KP will be rested a ton, too, so finding that right 4/5 mix pretty quick would be nice.

The closing lineup concerns me most. If that gets fixed.....we will be a really happy bunch.

[SleepingHero]

Read the discussion love the Luka idea. 

How about we go off the wall and trade for Tacko and nab Rudy. Grab Bol Bol and awake Shawn Bradley for his excellent defensive skills. 

Bradley/Tacko/Bol/KP/Boban. Just spitballing...

Okay in all seriousness.

Terry
Green
Bey
Barea
Powell 

Is the best lineup I got. Iwundu 6th man.

[aguiar95]

The lineup I am picturing would be Luka, THJ, J Rich, DFS & Powell in that scenario.

This one would be a tragedy waiting to happen. No rim-protection, no post defense, we would be bullied to death by the other team's bigs. WCS should start until KP comes back, with DFS/Kleber/Johnson as PF depending on the matchup (I'd go with Johnson and let the dogs out - whoof).

Luka/Brunson/Terry
THJ/Burke/Green
Richardson/DFS/Iwundu
Johnson/Kleber/Bey
WCS/Powell/Boban

After KP comes back, then I concurr with almost everything Dan said (I still can't see Powell earning a lot of minutes with KP/Kleber/Johnson/DFS getting minutes on that PF spot and he coming back from a bad injury):

- Starting/Closing lineup = Luka/THJ/Richardson/X/KP

X is matchup based (DFS/Kleber/Powell/Johnson), clearly the position we need to address the most in TDL/'21 FA scenarios.

- The Good Boys = Luka unit without KP = Luka/Burke/DFS/Kleber/DP or WCS or Boban (Luka with 90% USG and everyone else spotting up/rolling)

- The Bad Boys = KP unit without Luka = Brunson/THJ/Richardson/Johnson/KP (everyone can handle the ball and create for theirselves and each other)

- The Ugly Boys = Rest/GT unit = Terry/Green/Iwundu/DP or WCS/Boban (madness)

Assuming Johnson gets the X spot on the starting lineup:

Doncic (32)/Brunson (12)/Terry (GT - 4)
Hardaway (26)/Richardson (4)/Burke (14)/Green (GT - 4)/Hinton (G-League)
Richardson (26)/DFS (18)/Iwundu (GT - 4)
Johnson (24)/KP (4)/DFS (6)/Kleber (14)/Bey (gets some GT minutes before KP comes back, then it's G-League)
KP (26)/Kleber (10)/Powell or WCS or Boban (12 - situational)

* GT = Garbage time. I left 12 minutes for this spot.


Luka (32)
KP, Richardson (30)
Hardaway (26)
Johnson, DFS, Kleber (24)
Burke (14)
Brunson, WCS or Powell or Boban (12)
Terry, Green, Iwundu (4)

Sorry if it seems too confusing.