TRAINING CAMP: October 1 - 22 (Mavs sign & waive Chad Brown)

[DanSchwartzgan]

  Mav 19 Preseason.xlsx (Size: 12.18 KB / Downloads: 7)

Thought I'd ease back into basketball mode after taking some time off.  Thanks to all who have worked so hard to get this board going.

The purpose of the spreadsheet (assuming I attached it correctly) is to look behind the big numbers.  The record in preseason is meaningless.  We didn't even try to win some games.  Same with Per Game stats since no one played normal minutes.  What I wanted to do was look at what each of our top 12 guys (Powell would be 13) did in terms of overall impact when they were on the floor.  Obviously the sample size is small and other teams weren't always at full strength.  But, at this point, it is all we have.  Impressions:

The team's main players did much better than a 2-3 record would indicate.  DFS and Curry are the only rotation players who were negative on a Net Rating basis and DFS was the only one who was negative +/-.  Even that might not be an indictment against DFS as he got some of his minutes with the scrubs.

KP's impact has been incredible...imagine what this will look like when his TS% goes up to just his career average.

I've been thoroughly impressed with Brunson (like everyone else).  I was a bit surprised how few minutes he actually played.  Barea couldn't throw it in the ocean, but the team did really well when he was on the court.  I really have no idea how Wright/Brunson/Curry and JJB will be rotated.  It feels like we have one too many guards. If all four of those guys are in the rotation, then THJ, Luka and Jackson are getting most of their minutes at forward.

THJ may have had the best preseason of the non-stars.  I've long assumed he would be a bench scorer, but his preseason makes a case for starting.  Even if he's a sub, he may end up with the 4th/5th most minutes on the team.  62% TS% (or anything even above average) would be a huge boost to this team.  Question...can he be an efficient secondary option among the starters?  Is that better than being an inefficient chunker off the bench?

The big rotation is still a total mystery.  Powell was out and KP/Boban/Maxi only averaged 57 of the possible 96 C/PF minutes available.  I imagine KP and Maxi will play a few more minutes and Powell will soak up some too.  But it is pretty obvious that some non-big (Luka, Jackson, DFS) is going to have to play some PF.  Jackson was better than DFS in just about every way imaginable.  I suspect Jackson and Luka will be somewhat interchangeable 3/4's and DFS will be in the bottom 5 of the rotation once the real games start.

Arguing over lineups is probably a fools errand at this point as it will probably be quite flexible.  It feels to me like we have a star tier (Luka/KP),  an every day rotation tier (Powell, Maxi, Jackson, THJ, Wright, Curry, Brunson, JJB) and a occasional rotation tier (Boban, DFS and maybe Lee).  It feels like there may be one too many players in the every day rotation tier, but I imagine injuries will have one of those guys out more often than not.  I was kind of hoping Brunson would get more burn and move JJB to the occasional rotation tier.  It may happen, but I can also see JJB getting a little spurt of action every night...especially if he can get his shooting numbers up.  I like what we have, but it is probably going to take some time to settle into groupings that work.

[Hypermav]

Thought I'd ease back into basketball mode after taking some time off.  Thanks to all who have worked so hard to get this board going.

The purpose of the spreadsheet (assuming I attached it correctly) is to look behind the big numbers.  The record in preseason is meaningless.  We didn't even try to win some games.  Same with Per Game stats since no one played normal minutes.  What I wanted to do was look at what each of our top 12 guys (Powell would be 13) did in terms of overall impact when they were on the floor.  Obviously the sample size is small and other teams weren't always at full strength.  But, at this point, it is all we have.  Impressions:

The team's main players did much better than a 2-3 record would indicate.  DFS and Curry are the only rotation players who were negative on a Net Rating basis and DFS was the only one who was negative +/-.  Even that might not be an indictment against DFS as he got some of his minutes with the scrubs.

KP's impact has been incredible...imagine what this will look like when his TS% goes up to just his career average.

I've been thoroughly impressed with Brunson (like everyone else).  I was a bit surprised how few minutes he actually played.  Barea couldn't throw it in the ocean, but the team did really well when he was on the court.  I really have no idea how Wright/Brunson/Curry and JJB will be rotated.  It feels like we have one too many guards. If all four of those guys are in the rotation, then THJ, Luka and Jackson are getting most of their minutes at forward.

THJ may have had the best preseason of the non-stars.  I've long assumed he would be a bench scorer, but his preseason makes a case for starting.  Even if he's a sub, he may end up with the 4th/5th most minutes on the team.  62% TS% (or anything even above average) would be a huge boost to this team.  Question...can he be an efficient secondary option among the starters?  Is that better than being an inefficient chunker off the bench?

The big rotation is still a total mystery.  Powell was out and KP/Boban/Maxi only averaged 57 of the possible 96 C/PF minutes available.  I imagine KP and Maxi will play a few more minutes and Powell will soak up some too.  But it is pretty obvious that some non-big (Luka, Jackson, DFS) is going to have to play some PF.  Jackson was better than DFS in just about every way imaginable.  I suspect Jackson and Luka will be somewhat interchangeable 3/4's and DFS will be in the bottom 5 of the rotation once the real games start.

Arguing over lineups is probably a fools errand at this point as it will probably be quite flexible.  It feels to me like we have a star tier (Luka/KP),  an every day rotation tier (Powell, Maxi, Jackson, THJ, Wright, Curry, Brunson, JJB) and a occasional rotation tier (Boban, DFS and maybe Lee).  It feels like there may be one too many players in the every day rotation tier, but I imagine injuries will have one of those guys out more often than not.  I was kind of hoping Brunson would get more burn and move JJB to the occasional rotation tier.  It may happen, but I can also see JJB getting a little spurt of action every night...especially if he can get his shooting numbers up.  I like what we have, but it is probably going to take some time to settle into groupings that work.

Glad to see you posting here!

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/bobbykaralla/status/...5358901249

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https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1185612604577894405

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https://twitter.com/ESefko/status/1185608505417457664

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[fifteenth]

Thought I'd ease back into basketball mode after taking some time off. 

Good to see ya! As happens at times, you were so thorough that I enjoyed your post but don't have much to add.

I guess I'll say that one of the tough things about measuring preseason play is that the goals of the players and coaches sometimes don't have much to do with being productive. 

Some examples: 

• KP seemed to be using the preseason (especially the first couple of games) to shoot the rust off his game.
  
• Delon was watching and taking notes to gauge how to fit in.
  
• It seemed like maybe Rick didn't need to see much of Seth.
  

And then some players, for whatever reason, were able to show that they're comfortable and ready to produce: Brunson, THJ, JJax.

I like the player categories you suggest. I previously assumed that JJB would be outside of the daily rotation, but now I'm not sure. And I assumed DFS would be in the rotation as the PF when the team went "1 big:. But now I'm not sure. I will say that I don't think that Jackson > DFS regarding offense means that Jackson is the better candidate to fill DFS' roll as glue guy, defender, small ball PF.

Real answers coming right around the corner!!

[WillE]

https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1185625639967174662

[DanSchwartzgan]

Good to see ya! As happens at times, you were so thorough that I enjoyed your post but don't have much to add.

I guess I'll say that one of the tough things about measuring preseason play is that the goals of the players and coaches sometimes don't have much to do with being productive. 
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Agreed.  Unfortunately it is all we have.  My thought was to look to see if there were numbers that showed a rosier picture than the preseason record.  I was hoping to look at 4 and 5 man lineups, but nba.com doesn't do them for preseason.  I thought I might do some work by hand, but popcorn machine doesn't do game flows for preseason.  So, net rating TX% and +/- were all I could think of. 

I think they tell a pretty good story...mainly that our regular rotation guys played pretty well.  With a couple notable exceptions, the TS% was unbelievable.  D-ratings were surprisingly good too.  Obviously everything changes when they start firing real bullets, but the information we have is more compelling than the preseason record would indicate.

[WillE]

Good to see ya!

Absolutely agree - welcome back!


About your former user names, where you used an g instead of an m: do you now go by your real name?

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/dallasnews/status/11...8982150144

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https://twitter.com/TheBaselineNBA/statu...3748357120

[DanSchwartzgan]

About your former user names, where you used an g instead of an m: do you now go by your real name?

No.  Actually, I just messed it up when I registered.  Originally Dan Schwartzgan was a combination of Dan Fegan and Jeff Schwartz.  I'll probably fix it if I can figure out how.  Thanks for pointing it out.

[ClutchDirk]

https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1186326246738845697

[Kammrath]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-XcN2YPtMJs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IB2fE8VlMY

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https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1186345189633396742

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1186394164491108354