COVID-19: Scrimmage games | July 23 (NBATV), 26 (NBATV), 28 (FSSW) for DAL

[burekemde]

https://twitter.com/basketballtalk/statu...5075449856

Listening closely to the President and the COVID-19 task force extended press conference yesterday, I can see why the NBA is saying they think they can save the season now.  

Its a combination of the latest data on the coronavirus, its impact, mortality severity numbers, age and curve and cycle of 3 months they anticipate. 
There's also a willingness to accept some degree of risk in order to move forward. 

Barring unexpected shifts or events, I can see this happening. 

What are those numbers?

If the hospitals are overloaded, then it means some patients will die because they cant get treatment. In this case, potentially quiet many. The current estimation is around 0.5%-1.0% if everyone is treated well in hospitals that function. And quiet more if not. This seems catastrophic.

Some numbers that they think may predict a 3 month curve with a cycle where the virus peaks and declines.  The numbers indicating most children and younger adults are not getting severly ill or hospitalized.
The numbers indicating positive results from behavioral changes among the population, social distancing, hand washing etc. 
The numbers showing positive anecdotal results from some treatments, even though nothing is conclusive yet on those. 

I'm not validating the numbers here of course, I wouldn't know, simply saying that this is what they were referring to in terms of a predictive timeline. 
Cuban and the NBA brass are likely basing their hopes on the same sort of data with the idea that accepting some level of declining virus infections is better than doing nothing.

The impact this will have, raises questions if the next season will be played; not if the current season will be resumed. My guess is that the next season will be cancelled as well. With a new pandemic that nobody is immune for, like the spanish flu, it takes at least two full years, and multiple waves. Typically second and tertiary waves are more deadly, and hit at times where the health care system is really down after the first wave, and people are exhausted mentally, physically and economically. Many of us already feel it after two weeks. Some of you already miss toilet paper. Wait for the second and third waves after many other companies go down and more products are missing.

Do you think anyone in Italy wants to even watch football now with what is happening. Nobody cares, and people are usually under normal circumstances are even more passionate about their main sport, but now do not even care about it. When so many people die, that is what makes it. The key is to get the situation under control. Sport is secondary to this.

The way that USA underestimates the situation, and even considering opening up, it might get much worse than in Italy - this is is my huge concern.

At the moment there are still chances to get rid of the virus. This takes extreme care like they did in China, and testing. However to me it seems that the Western World is not suited at all for this, and this is the biggest issue right now. Where the chinese can stay at home, the people in the West can not. Its too spoiled, a luxurious life we are used to live, and this is not compatible with battling a serious epidemic.