Rotations and Ideas

[KillerLeft]

I agree that Dinwiddie can and probably will have a bigger role than what I posted. He’ll likely spot start when one of Luka or Kyrie are out. And he might be closer to 20+ mpg in his normal bench role. Exum however has something none of the guards have, if we’re saying Grimes is a wing, and that’s defense. You’ve pointed out that the Mavs may have gone a bit too far on the offense side of things this offseason and in my opinion Exum has shown to be a valuable regular season player, especially on the defensive end. For now, I’d like to count him as a rotational piece to start the year. It’ll all work itself out eventually either way.

That's mostly Mvossman's position, I think. I'm holding my opinion until I see how the team is played, because I think I can see some ways to do it where the defense actually improves (but it's obviously possible the defense suffers without DJJ). 

Agreed that Exum will play in the regular season, and I think a case can be made that he's the guy who needs to figure out some stuff and make it into the playoff rotation for this team to reach its full potential. He does so many good things as a defender and a connector. But, to my thinking, even just the choice to target a guy like Dinwiddie signals that they think they need more offensive creation, as in they don't trust Exum (or Hardy, sadly) even to take a slightly increased offensive role temporarily if Luka or Kyrie misses some time. I realize that's the very definition of "insurance," but I also don't think it indicates that they expect Exum will be able to make the playoff rotation this time around.

I might go as far as to say the Exum/Dinwiddie/Hardy situation might be the single most interesting (and possibly the only) question mark for me heading into the season.

[The Jom]

Late to the party.

Luka 35
PJ 35
Kyrie 30
Klay 30
Dereck 30
—————-
Marshall 30
Exum 20
Gafford 18
Grimes 12
Kleber 0 (specialist 5 against traditional centers)
Hardy 0
Dinwiddie 0
Omax 0

[mvossman]

Late to the party.

Luka 35
PJ 35
Kyrie 30
Klay 30
Dereck 30
—————-
Marshall 30
Exum 20
Gafford 18
Grimes 12
Kleber 0 (specialist 5 against traditional centers)
Hardy 0
Dinwiddie 0
Omax 0

Another Grimes hater.  Hard to see Marshall get 30 minutes.  Exum had much less competition last season, shot way out of his mind and still didn't quite get 20 minutes a game.  Its hard to imagine Maxi (and probably Din) wont get at least 10 minutes a game.

[RGP1981]

Here are last season's Bigs in Rim Protection vs Perimeter Isolation Defense.

Gafford ranked better than Lively on both, and had a higher D-LEBRON too.

I'm in the camp that feels the Mavs need both Bigs, and can easily keep both for another 3 years at least.

Also feel their minutes should be evenly split, or be very close. An unreasonable split would look something like 30 mins to Lively and 18 mins to Gafford. That could end up alienating Gafford... and make Lively demand a bigger contract than he might be worth 3 years down the line. Or vice versa.

[Scott41theMavs]

Here are last season's Bigs in Rim Protection vs Perimeter Isolation Defense.

Gafford ranked better than Lively on both, and had a higher D-LEBRON too.

I'm in the camp that feels the Mavs need both Bigs, and can easily keep both for another 3 years at least.

Also feel their minutes should be evenly split, or be very close. An unreasonable split would look something like 30 mins to Lively and 18 mins to Gafford. That could end up alienating Gafford... and make Lively demand a bigger contract than he might be worth 3 years down the line. Or vice versa.

Can't see Lively's circle due to the red circling.

[RGP1981]

Can't see Lively's circle due to the red circling.

Okay, I've uploaded an unedited version instead.

You could probably edit your post to remove the quote of my post. It's quite long with the photo.

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

I like something resembling an even split between Lively and Gaff too. It’s a long season and it’s best to keep Lively fresh. Gafford is a physical handful for a lot of teams and they both always play hard. It’s such a bountiful feeling to have these two, after so many years of rotating stopgaps in the middle.

[The Jom]

Another Grimes hater.  Hard to see Marshall get 30 minutes.  Exum had much less competition last season, shot way out of his mind and still didn't quite get 20 minutes a game.  It’s hard to imagine Maxi (and probably Din) wont get at least 10 minutes a game.

Was that supposed to sound harsh? 

No Grimes hate here. Just unconvinced/merely hopeful. Can’t wait to see him play.

I’m a huge fan of Maximillian. Just think his best role is the 5 in 5 out offense. And that’s not our best move (my opinion) against half of the league. Also think he’ll benefit from not playing in half or more of the regular season games. 

Dinwiddie can play. So maybe he steals the minutes I’ve allocated to Grimes? Or maybe Exum sucks and I’m just too stoopid to see it. Regardless, my guesses are in. I can live with em. And I’ll be more interested in your criticism after they inevitably prove wrong.

[F Gump]

Another Grimes hater.  Hard to see Marshall get 30 minutes.  Exum had much less competition last season, shot way out of his mind and still didn't quite get 20 minutes a game.  Its hard to imagine Maxi (and probably Din) wont get at least 10 minutes a game.

Upon further reflection, and looking more at actual minutes played last season, I think we are overlooking 2 important points.

1 Once we get into the reality of the season, there will be more than enough minutes for each player named to satisfy the desires of every realistic expectation here, because we are looking at the ideal situation of a full roster all suited up and ready to play, all 82, when in reality that's not what Kidd will have. 

Your starters are all but certain to miss 5-10 games or more. Your backup player of choice is unlikely to play 82 either. Load management and injuries idle your better players regularly, resulting in extra available minutes for those lower in the pecking order. (For example, last year Luka played 2624 minutes in total, which used up on average only 32 mpg based on 82 games in the season. Kyrie played 2030, which only used up 24.8 mpg based on 82 games in the season. Lively played 1294, which only used up 15.8 mpg based on 82 games in the season.)

If you stop and estimate how many games you think each Mav player will play next season, and then multiply it by how many mpg he will play each time he plays, you find that the total minutes for all your key players will fall well sort of the approx 20,000 minutes of play you have over the course of a season. There will be tons of minutes for those various backups, that we don't see now but that arise as the season unfolds, and often it's that way even before we get to opening day. It works itself out.

Your top 6 players (starters plus Lively) last season, total minutes -- in every case these should be same or lower, except perhaps some shift from Gafford to Lively
Luka  2624
Kyrie  2030
Klay  2284
PJW 2221
Gafford   1815
Lively  1294 
TOT   12268 = 150 mpg over 82 games

OTHERS
Naji 1257
Grimes 1025
Exum  1088
Kleber  871
Dinwiddie  2152 
TOT    6393 = 78 mpg over 82 games
I don't think these will stay the same, but if we assume SD plays way fewer this season, that leaves lots to give to the others as they are needed in games.

TOT  18661

UNACCOUNTED FOR = ~1000

Not listed - Hardy, Powell, Omax, Lawson/Morris

2 One other factor being overlooked in these discussions is how (or if) the Mavs will invest minutes to try to develop players. OMax, I'm looking at you. (But I could just as well be thinking of Grimes, Hardy, or 2-ways.)

For those we doubt as keepers, we don't want to invest much in the way of regular minutes. But are there any of those the Mavs should see highly enough to keep using? OMax was drafted as a project who was thought to have lots of potential, but if he's 3rd or 4th string playing GL and garbage time, and mostly sparing it up (he can't shoot a lick, even in GL), is his door closed?

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

What I like to happen:

Luka - 32, Kyrie - 10, Exum/SD - 6
Kyrie - 20, SD - 10, Klay - 6, Exum/Hardy - 12
Klay - 22, Grimes - 20, Naji - 8
PJ - 28, Naji - 12, Maxi/Omax - 8
Lively - 26, Gafford - 18, Maxi - 4

Players with guaranteed minutes:
Luka - 32
Kyrie - 30
Klay - 28
PJ - 28
Lively - 26
Naji - 20
Grimes - 20
Gafford - 18

Players where playing time varies but are guaranteed to play:
SD - gets a guaranteed PT of 10, could extend to 16 if he gets some PT at PG at the expense of Exum's
Maxi - could get third string duties PT at both PF and C for a total of 12 mins, but PT could also get as low as 4

Players who might get a DNP on some nights, but likely stays in the rotation:
Exum - no guarantees of PT in either PG or SG, but his PT could rise from 6 to 16.

Players who might get a DNP every other playing date:
Hardy - on some nights, gets the nod over Exum to get all of 12 SG minutes, but could get a DNP on the next game.
Omax - same with Hardy but lesser minutes, 8 or nothing.

[mvossman]

Upon further reflection, and looking more at actual minutes played last season, I think we are overlooking 2 important points.

1 Once we get into the reality of the season, there will be more than enough minutes for each player named to satisfy the desires of every realistic expectation here, because we are looking at the ideal situation of a full roster all suited up and ready to play, all 82, when in reality that's not what Kidd will have. 

Your starters are all but certain to miss 5-10 games or more. Your backup player of choice is unlikely to play 82 either. Load management and injuries idle your better players regularly, resulting in extra available minutes for those lower in the pecking order. (For example, last year Luka played 2624 minutes in total, which used up on average only 32 mpg based on 82 games in the season. Kyrie played 2030, which only used up 24.8 mpg based on 82 games in the season. Lively played 1294, which only used up 15.8 mpg based on 82 games in the season.)

If you stop and estimate how many games you think each Mav player will play next season, and then multiply it by how many mpg he will play each time he plays, you find that the total minutes for all your key players will fall well sort of the approx 20,000 minutes of play you have over the course of a season. There will be tons of minutes for those various backups, that we don't see now but that arise as the season unfolds, and often it's that way even before we get to opening day. It works itself out.

Your top 6 players (starters plus Lively) last season, total minutes -- in every case these should be same or lower, except perhaps some shift from Gafford to Lively
Luka  2624
Kyrie  2030
Klay  2284
PJW 2221
Gafford   1815
Lively  1294 
TOT   12268  =  150 mpg over 82 games

OTHERS
Naji 1257
Grimes 1025
Exum  1088
Kleber  871
Dinwiddie  2152 
TOT    6393  = 78 mpg over 82 games
I don't think these will stay the same, but if we assume SD plays way fewer this season, that leaves lots to give to the others as they are needed in games.

TOT  18661

UNACCOUNTED FOR =  ~1000

Not listed - Hardy, Powell, Omax, Lawson/Morris

2 One other factor being overlooked in these discussions is how (or if) the Mavs will invest minutes to try to develop players. OMax, I'm looking at you. (But I could just as well be thinking of Grimes, Hardy, or 2-ways.)

For those we doubt as keepers, we don't want to invest much in the way of regular minutes. But are there any of those the Mavs should see highly enough to keep using? OMax was drafted as a project who was thought to have lots of potential, but if he's 3rd or 4th string playing GL and garbage time, and mostly sparing it up (he can't shoot a lick, even in GL), is his door closed?

Ha!  In the post you are responding to I literally started to make this point (although not nearly in this detail).  There is definitely a big difference between minutes per game in an idealized single game when everyone is healthy situation and across a long season with injuries and load management.  

One minor quibble is that I think Grimes second season is probably a more accurate estimate of his future contributions (as I continue to beat that horse into the ground).

Dinwiddie played a lot of minutes last year and is still a quality player.  He is probably going to play more minutes than I originally thought.  My guess is both Hardy and Exum will take a big hit.

[Chicagojk]

Dinwiddie played a lot of minutes last year and is still a quality player.  He is probably going to play more minutes than I originally thought.  My guess is both Hardy and Exum will take a big hit.

I think the Din vs Exum battle will be really interesting to watch during the season.  If Din plays like he did in 21, he is going to get minutes.  Probably more than we expect.   But he was bad last year.   There was talk from Nets fans about him quitting and not playing hard.   He was in a spot where he had the ball a lot.  Not a good look.  Then he went to the Lakers.   It is tough to fit in late in a season and he role was different, but he didn't make an impact there and for the most part was pretty bad.   So he will need to prove himself.

I went most of last year hoping Exum would play more, not less.   He had a few injuries that really stopped momentum.  This has always been a concern for him in his career.   He also didn't have Kidd's confidence in the playoffs.   It just felt like Kidd wanted him to be more aggressive.   I remember a few early subouts by Kidd when he bypassed a look.   Kidd doesn't do this often.   On the other hand, his ability to be a second ball handler, push the pace, and guard scoring guards does provide us a lot of value.   I think for the most part he fits well with both Luka or Kyrie.

[mvossman]

I think the Din vs Exum battle will be really interesting to watch during the season.  If Din plays like he did in 21, he is going to get minutes.  Probably more than we expect.   But he was bad last year.   There was talk from Nets fans about him quitting and not playing hard.   He was in a spot where he had the ball a lot.  Not a good look.  Then he went to the Lakers.   It is tough to fit in late in a season and he role was different, but he didn't make an impact there and for the most part was pretty bad.   So he will need to prove himself.

I went most of last year hoping Exum would play more, not less.   He had a few injuries that really stopped momentum.  This has always been a concern for him in his career.   He also didn't have Kidd's confidence in the playoffs.   It just felt like Kidd wanted him to be more aggressive.   I remember a few early subouts by Kidd when he bypassed a look.   Kidd doesn't do this often.   On the other hand, his ability to be a second ball handler, push the pace, and guard scoring guards does provide us a lot of value.   I think for the most part he fits well with both Luka or Kyrie.

Was Din bad last year?  He took a lot less shots in LA due to different role, but otherwise his numbers are similar to previous years and both teams were better when he was on the court (he was among the net rating leaders on both teams).  He did have a rough playoff stint (only 5 games).

[mvossman]

Was that supposed to sound harsh? 

No Grimes hate here. Just unconvinced/merely hopeful. Can’t wait to see him play.

I’m a huge fan of Maximillian. Just think his best role is the 5 in 5 out offense. And that’s not our best move (my opinion) against half of the league. Also think he’ll benefit from not playing in half or more of the regular season games. 

Dinwiddie can play. So maybe he steals the minutes I’ve allocated to Grimes? Or maybe Exum sucks and I’m just too stoopid to see it. Regardless, my guesses are in. I can live with em. And I’ll be more interested in your criticism after they inevitably prove wrong.

It was not.  The Grimes comment is a semi joke as I think I am his biggest homer and there are several folks who have his minutes low.  All of my posts are intended to be respectful as I do a fairly good job of ignoring posts I don't believe deserve it.  Your post triggered the concept in my mind regarding the difference between a single game minutes prediction vs season long minutes prediction, but I didn't get to that part (got busy with work) which would have softened the overall tone and provided a reason for me to reply to begin with.

[The Jom]

It was not.  The Grimes comment is a semi joke as I think I am his biggest homer and there are several folks who have his minutes low.  All of my posts are intended to be respectful as I do a fairly good job of ignoring posts I don't believe deserve it.  Your post triggered the concept in my mind regarding the difference between a single game minutes prediction vs season long minutes prediction, but I didn't get to that part (got busy with work) which would have softened the overall tone and provided a reason for me to reply to begin with.

Glad to hear more about Grimes. Don’t think I’ve ever seen him play.

[KillerLeft]

Glad to hear more about Grimes. Don’t think I’ve ever seen him play.

I have a feeling he’s going to be a fan favorite.

[ThisIStheYear]

Jason Kidd has a big task ahead of him this season. The Mavericks haven't been this deep since perhaps 2011. 

With that in mind, how do you think the rotations will play out? 


I used this nifty tool here to attempt to build rotations. You can build your own as well. 

https://www.thehoopsgeek.com/basketball-rotation-app/

This is how I see it. There is a massive squeeze at guard with Grimes, Hardy, Dinwiddie, and Exum. I basically split Grimes and Hardy in the same role, except 1 plays the 1st and 3rd quarters, while the other plays the 2nd and 4th. 

Dinwiddie plays spot minutes in the 2nd and 4th as a 3rd ball handler but that could also easily be Exum. Naji floats between the 3 and 4 most of the time but he could also float to the 2. 

Maxi plays spot minutes and has a small stretch as a stretch 5 in the 2nd and 4th.

Total minutes for everyone:


Player         MPG
Luka            34
Kyrie            33
Klay             32
PJ                30
Lively           25
Naji              27
Gafford         18
Maxi             15
Dinwiddie      10
Grimes           8
Hardy             8


Exum+Morris+Omax+Powell= 0

This is very tough. In reality Naji will probably not see the floor for 27 minutes. Lively will probably get a bit higher than 25. Grimes+Hardy+Dinwiddie will be a battle on who is the best for the job because there is a tight squeeze.

Less for Naji and Klay. A lot more for one of Widdie, Grimes, or Hardy (and one of those three falls out of the rotation). Maxi sits out a ton of games regardless of health (so Omax will get meaningful opportunities).

[mvossman]

Less for Naji and Klay. A lot more for one of Widdie, Grimes, or Hardy (and one of those three falls out of the rotation). Maxi sits out a ton of games regardless of health (so Omax will get meaningful opportunities).

It's not just when Maxi is out.  If any of Lively, Gafford or PJ are out then Maxi probably has more minutes on his plate than the Mavs want him to play in a regular season game.  That's over a full season of games missed across those 4 players (based on last season), meaning Omax will probably have 5 to 10 minutes available to him most games if he can handle it.  Yet most folks don't have him on their minutes chart because he doesn't make sense other than garbage time when the team is fully healthy (and another argument can be made that there should be a decent amount of garbage time when the team is fully healthy).  This gets back to Gump's point that for the regular season it probably makes more sense to look at total minutes than minutes per game (which can fluctuate wildly depending on missed games).