Rotations and Ideas

[SleepingHero]

Jason Kidd has a big task ahead of him this season. The Mavericks haven't been this deep since perhaps 2011. 

With that in mind, how do you think the rotations will play out? 


I used this nifty tool here to attempt to build rotations. You can build your own as well. 

https://www.thehoopsgeek.com/basketball-rotation-app/

This is how I see it. There is a massive squeeze at guard with Grimes, Hardy, Dinwiddie, and Exum. I basically split Grimes and Hardy in the same role, except 1 plays the 1st and 3rd quarters, while the other plays the 2nd and 4th. 

Dinwiddie plays spot minutes in the 2nd and 4th as a 3rd ball handler but that could also easily be Exum. Naji floats between the 3 and 4 most of the time but he could also float to the 2. 

Maxi plays spot minutes and has a small stretch as a stretch 5 in the 2nd and 4th.

Total minutes for everyone:


Player         MPG
Luka            34
Kyrie            33
Klay             32
PJ                30
Lively           25
Naji              27
Gafford         18
Maxi             15
Dinwiddie      10
Grimes           8
Hardy             8


Exum+Morris+Omax+Powell= 0

This is very tough. In reality Naji will probably not see the floor for 27 minutes. Lively will probably get a bit higher than 25. Grimes+Hardy+Dinwiddie will be a battle on who is the best for the job because there is a tight squeeze.

[BigDirk41]

Jason Kidd has a big task ahead of him this season. The Mavericks haven't been this deep since perhaps 2011. 

With that in mind, how do you think the rotations will play out? 


I used this nifty tool here to attempt to build rotations. You can build your own as well. 

https://www.thehoopsgeek.com/basketball-rotation-app/

This is how I see it. There is a massive squeeze at guard with Grimes, Hardy, Dinwiddie, and Exum. I basically split Grimes and Hardy in the same role, except 1 plays the 1st and 3rd quarters, while the other plays the 2nd and 4th. 

Dinwiddie plays spot minutes in the 2nd and 4th as a 3rd ball handler but that could also easily be Exum. Naji floats between the 3 and 4 most of the time but he could also float to the 2. 

Maxi plays spot minutes and has a small stretch as a stretch 5 in the 2nd and 4th.

Total minutes for everyone:


Player         MPG
Luka            34
Kyrie            33
Klay             32
PJ                30
Lively           25
Naji              27
Gafford         18
Maxi             15
Dinwiddie      10
Grimes           8
Hardy             8


Exum+Morris+Omax+Powell= 0

This is very tough. In reality Naji will probably not see the floor for 27 minutes. Lively will probably get a bit higher than 25. Grimes+Hardy+Dinwiddie will be a battle on who is the best for the job because there is a tight squeeze.

Your top 7 are probably pretty close, but I think Naji will be more around 20 mpg. If he's getting 27 mpg, that's probably a good thing and meaning that he's had a break out year. I think the last 4 are completely up in the air and I would think the Mavs will use a 10 man lineup most nights, not 11. I don't think Maxi will play 15 mpg or even every night anymore. He's a shell of himself, incredibly injury prone. I think he'll be used as little as possible so he's healthy for the playoffs.

[Chicagojk]

It will be interesting to see how it plays out. I expect a lot of experimentation. I think Hardy starts off out of the rotation. He will have some chances to prove he is too good to be on the bench....will he take advantage of it.

For me, I think the most interesting battles will be Din vs Exum and Naji vs Maxi. I think Din or Exum will get the majority of the backup guard minutes. So that will be a fight. Not sure there is enough to feed both mouths there. If Naji can capture the backup PF minutes, that clears up quite a bit of the log jam. Grimes gets the backup 3. I would be surprised if Grimes only gets 8...I think he gets a little over 20....but that is just a guess.

A quick thoughts...I think Klay will be down a few minutes and Maxi won't get 15 every night.

[mvossman]

This is how I see it. There is a massive squeeze at guard with Grimes, Hardy, Dinwiddie, and Exum. I basically split Grimes and Hardy in the same role, except 1 plays the 1st and 3rd quarters, while the other plays the 2nd and 4th. 

Dinwiddie plays spot minutes in the 2nd and 4th as a 3rd ball handler but that could also easily be Exum. Naji floats between the 3 and 4 most of the time but he could also float to the 2. 

Maxi plays spot minutes and has a small stretch as a stretch 5 in the 2nd and 4th.

Total minutes for everyone:


Player         MPG
Luka            34
Kyrie            33
Klay             32
PJ                30
Lively           25
Naji              27
Gafford         18
Maxi             15
Dinwiddie      10
Grimes           8
Hardy             8


Exum+Morris+Omax+Powell= 0

This is very tough. In reality Naji will probably not see the floor for 27 minutes. Lively will probably get a bit higher than 25. Grimes+Hardy+Dinwiddie will be a battle on who is the best for the job because there is a tight squeeze.

I see Naji being the primary backup for PJ.  Maxi may get some spot minutes there, but I think Naji will be the primary backup.  I see Grimes as the primary backup for Klay.  They are similar (volume 3&D) players and I expect Grimes to get way more than 8 minutes a game.  I would expect Gafford, Naji and Grimes to be consistent rotational players and the other guys to vary a lot from game to game.

[mvossman]

It will be interesting to see how it plays out.  I expect a lot of experimentation.  I think Hardy starts off out of the rotation.  He will have some chances to prove he is too good to be on the bench....will he take advantage of it.

For me, I think the most interesting battles will be Din vs Exum and Naji vs Maxi.  I think Din or Exum will get the majority of the backup guard minutes.  So that will be a fight.  Not sure there is enough to feed both mouths there.  If Naji can capture the backup PF minutes, that clears up quite a bit of the log jam.  Grimes gets the backup 3.  I would be surprised if Grimes only gets 8...I think he gets a little over 20....but that is just a guess. 

A quick thoughts...I think Klay will be down a few minutes and Maxi won't get 15 every night.

This is exactly how I see it.

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

The way the roster is constructed, I expect some of them would play a spot up.

I know Naji is the DJJ replacement -- but he is going to backup PJ (I don't like it but it's the way to manage minutes).
Grimes would play exclusively at SF.

luka - 32, kyrie - 10, Exum - 6
Kyrie - 20, SD - 16, Hardy - 8, Klay - 4
Klay - 24, Grimes - 18, Naji - 6
PJ - 28, Naji - 14, Maxi - 6
Lively - 24, Gafford - 20, Maxi - 4

[F Gump]

Mavs will not run a regular rotation of 11 (or 12) players. Although I have a hard time deciding who plays and who sits at the bottom of the rotation, I think it will be closer to 9.5.

I agree that Grimes will not be allotted any minutes at guard, but Exum and/or Dinwiddie will. I suspect Hardy won't be in the regular rotation.

Who plays what position will be blurred a lot by position flex, with players sliding between positions depending on the opponent and their lineup.

Overall I expect something like this, to start the season (after a few games to get up to speed):

Luka            34
Kyrie           32
Klay             30
PJ                28
Lively           24
Naji              22
Gafford        19
Maxi             18
Exum/Dinwiddie/Grimes  33 tot, with this total tending to go down when the games are tighter and the opponent is better
 
DNP = perhaps 1 or more of Exum-Dinwiddie-Grimes, and Hardy, Omax, Powell, Morris

Lively  24   Gafford  19  Maxi  5
PJ    28   Maxi   13   Naji  7
Klay  18    Naji 15   Grimes 15
Kyrie  18  Klay 12   Exum/Dinwiddie  18 tot  
Luka 34  Kyrie 14

[Halfnir]

Here's my take at the rotation: https://www.thehoopsgeek.com/basketball-...T24mPrnZTM

- Starting and closing 5 are status driven (Luka/Kyrie/Klay).
- More Klay/Luka minutes and less Klay/Kyrie compared to SleepingHero
- Maxi is hard to slot in as i prefer him at C with PJ, but C minutes are tight. Gave him some Gafford minutes.
- short OMax slot is situational, minutes can go to Hardy , Dinwiddie or Grimes as well.
- first half is used to get Lively familiar with longer slots of playing time, second half back to shorter slots.

Luka 34
PJ 30
Kyrie 30
Klay 28:30
Lively 26
Naji 20
Grimes 17:30
Gafford 16
Hardy 10
Maxi 10
Exum 8:30
Dinwiddie 7
OMax 2:30

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

I do not want Dinwiddie to get more minutes than Exum simply because Exum is so much better than him defensively and Exum's more of a PG than him. Exum's a ball mover whereas, I do not think the same of Dinwiddie even though he has the better career assist numbers.

But Kidd likes players who shoot and shoot often.

Do you guys think SD will play less than 14 minutes a game?
Like what I said, Exum's the better fit and probably is the better player -- but SD overtakes him in minutes by a good margin (at least early in the season).

[ballsrchr]

Alright...I'll be your Huckleberry.

Luka--35 Actually I want him to get 30 and less when he's injured, but it is what it is.
Kyrie--30 Yeah! About right.
Klay--25 Feels funny putting someone I detested for so long so high on the list, but this is also what it is.
Lively--25 +/-
Gafford--20 +/-
Naji and Grimes--20 +/- I don't know anything about them. Just based on highlights and fan regard...
Hardy--12
Maxi--8 During regular season. My man!
Exum--10 +/- (Shoot the damn ball!)
Dinwiddie--10 +/-
Omax--3 +/-

I didn't put these times in a chart, so I don't know if they fit. It doesn't matter because it will change as each player earns, or loses, time based on performance. There also will be match up problems. So...it's a crap shoot. Right now the only people I think we can "depend" on are Luka, Kyrie, Lively, and Maxie (to a limited degree). Gafford will fill his slot, but I really think he has confidence problems that need to be worked on. I suspect we'll be able to depend on Klay as well (if he's happy), but I'm from Missouri so he's gotta prove it. Oh hell...I'm from New Mexico (now Texas), but there is no quote for New Mexico--other than, "...something, something, illiterate, inbred, redneck, something, something." I forget how that quote goes. I'm hoping Hardy breaks out this year--I think he can. Dinwiddie! I think his lackluster play of the last few years has been--also because he hasn't been happy. Hopefully he will be happy as a pig in a poke now that he's back in the nest.

PJ Washington! I did forget someone. 25+/- I hope PJW hit the gym over the summer and has been working on things. He served us well, but he needs to get better.

[mvossman]

Mavs will not run a regular rotation of 11 (or 12) players. Although I have a hard time deciding who plays and who sits at the bottom of the rotation, I think it will be closer to 9.5.

I agree that Grimes will not be allotted any minutes at guard, but Exum and/or Dinwiddie will. I suspect Hardy won't be in the regular rotation.

Who plays what position will be blurred a lot by position flex, with players sliding between positions depending on the opponent and their lineup.

Overall I expect something like this, to start the season (after a few games to get up to speed):

Luka            34
Kyrie           32
Klay             30
PJ                28
Lively           24
Naji              22
Gafford        19
Maxi             18
Exum/Dinwiddie/Grimes  33 tot, with this total tending to go down when the games are tighter and the opponent is better
 
DNP = perhaps 1 or more of Exum-Dinwiddie-Grimes, and Hardy, Omax, Powell, Morris

Lively  24   Gafford  19  Maxi  5
PJ    28   Maxi   13   Naji  7
Klay  18    Naji 15   Grimes 15
Kyrie  18  Klay 12   Exum/Dinwiddie  18 tot  
Luka 34  Kyrie 14

I think this is really close.  I think we are going to find that Naji is better a better forward than Maxi and he will end up taking most of Maxi minutes there, and then Grimes will backfill some of his minutes at the 3.  That would have Maxi at 10 minutes and Naji and Grimes in the lower 20s.

[Smitty]

   

This is the way I see the regular season rotation as it stands today.

Luka 36 | Exum 12
Kyrie 34 | Dinwiddie 14
Klay 28 | Grimes 20
PJW 30 | Naji 18
Lively 28 | Gafford 20

If we look at MPG from those 10 last year:

Luka 37.5 | Exum 19.8
Kyrie 35.0 | Dinwiddie 24.2
Klay 29.7 | Grimes 19.2
PJW 32.2 | Naji 19.0
Lively 23.5 | Gafford 21.5

The only real increase from my projections is Lively jumping from ~24 MPG to 28 MPG. Exum and Dinwiddie get less, but with injuries they'll get more over an 82 game season.

Maxi is 11th in my mind and will obviously play but I would love for his role to change from every day player at PF, to 3rd Center and only backup 4 with injuries/rest. 

Hardy will have to show that he's better than Exum/Dinwiddie before I can put him in any 10-man rotation.

[SleepingHero]

This is the way I see the regular season rotation as it stands today.

Luka 36 | Exum 12
Kyrie 34 | Dinwiddie 14
Klay 28 | Grimes 20
PJW 30 | Naji 18
Lively 28 | Gafford 20

If we look at MPG from those 10 last year:

Luka 37.5 | Exum 19.8
Kyrie 35.0 | Dinwiddie 24.2
Klay 29.7 | Grimes 19.2
PJW 32.2 | Naji 19.0
Lively 23.5 | Gafford 21.5

The only real increase from my projections is Lively jumping from ~24 MPG to 28 MPG. Exum and Dinwiddie get less, but with injuries they'll get more over an 82 game season.

Maxi is 11th in my mind and will obviously play but I would love for his role to change from every day player at PF, to 3rd Center and only backup 4 with injuries/rest. 

Hardy will have to show that he's better than Exum/Dinwiddie before I can put him in any 10-man rotation.

I really don't think the Mavs are going to want to play Luka 36-37mpg again. Maybe they do, but I don't think it was that surprising that Luka limped his way through the playoffs after that kind of load. 

They have gotten a lot of solid backup guards now. I really do think Dinwiddie and Exum will soak at least 4-5 minutes from Luka's lead PG role so he can get some more rest.

[KillerLeft]

This is the way I see the regular season rotation as it stands today.

Luka 36 | Exum 12
Kyrie 34 | Dinwiddie 14
Klay 28 | Grimes 20
PJW 30 | Naji 18
Lively 28 | Gafford 20

If we look at MPG from those 10 last year:

Luka 37.5 | Exum 19.8
Kyrie 35.0 | Dinwiddie 24.2
Klay 29.7 | Grimes 19.2
PJW 32.2 | Naji 19.0
Lively 23.5 | Gafford 21.5

The only real increase from my projections is Lively jumping from ~24 MPG to 28 MPG. Exum and Dinwiddie get less, but with injuries they'll get more over an 82 game season.

Maxi is 11th in my mind and will obviously play but I would love for his role to change from every day player at PF, to 3rd Center and only backup 4 with injuries/rest. 

Hardy will have to show that he's better than Exum/Dinwiddie before I can put him in any 10-man rotation.

I think this is about right, only I think Dinwiddie has a pretty good shot at stealing a big chunk of those Exum minutes (which I'm not hoping for, but might be necessary if Exum is still allergic to shooting) and I hope Grimes gets a few minutes as a guard.

[KillerLeft]

I really don't think the Mavs are going to want to play Luka 36-37mpg again. Maybe they do, but I don't think it was that surprising that Luka limped his way through the playoffs after that kind of load. 

They have gotten a lot of solid backup guards now. I really do think Dinwiddie and Exum will soak at least 4-5 minutes from Luka's lead PG role so he can get some more rest.

I don't think they want to do that, either, but I'm not sure they'll have a choice. I hope they do!

[Smitty]

I really don't think the Mavs are going to want to play Luka 36-37mpg again. Maybe they do, but I don't think it was that surprising that Luka limped his way through the playoffs after that kind of load. 

They have gotten a lot of solid backup guards now. I really do think Dinwiddie and Exum will soak at least 4-5 minutes from Luka's lead PG role so he can get some more rest.

I would love for Luka to be at 32-34 mpg. I posted something 5-6 weeks ago about his minutes and thought the sweet spot was 34 mpg, if you look at other stars around the league and realize the floor, but me wishing it to be and what actually happens are two different things. 

The fact that I'm projecting/predicting 36 mpg is probably too low when you see that he's been above that number the last two seasons. He'll probably be the MVP favorite entering the season, and the Mavs have higher expectations - I just don't think anyone can sit here today and honestly think that Luka will be at 32 MPG or something... depth or no depth.

18-19 32.2 mpg
19-20 33.6 mpg
20-21 34.3 mpg
21-20 35.4 mpg
22-23 36.2 mpg
23-24 37.5 mpg
Career 34.9 mpg

[KillerLeft]

I feel like it's pretty important for the Mavs to have a better regular season than they've been having, even including this past year and '22, which were succesful years by just about any metric. I just feel like a top 4 seed is almost a must-be-attained goal this year if they're serious about making it another year to remember. They can't expect to keep getting to the conference finals without being the favorites or having home court in at least one series (imho).

Based on that, I assume Luka is going to play a lot, and I think it will be that way for the forseeable future, as it is with every team's star player. They might say things publicly about reducinig his work load, but the reality is that teams whose stars don't tough it out (Clippers, Philly, etc) don't usually succeed.

Just my opinion, though, and I sure wouldn't mind them taking as long as he needs at the beginning to get past whatever injury situation he took with him into the summer. I think the key to avoiding things like that in the future (or at least giving himself the best chance to avoid things like that) is to go in knowing the load that's required and to condition himself and his habits accordingly. If I had to choose one thing to hope for as a Mavs fan, that would be it.

[RGP1981]

Grimes would play exclusively at SF.

I agree that Grimes will not be allotted any minutes at guard

I don't understand why this would be. Grimes is a Shooting Guard?

If it looks like a guard, runs like a guard, defends like a guard... it's a Guard.

Luka is a Forward, even though he is the primary play-maker. When he plays next to PJW, Luka is the SF. I think Luka could also play some minutes at PF too (with any three of Kyrie, Grimes/Klay, Naji ahead of him). If you guys can make that shift in how you view Luka, then everything becomes easier... from figuring out rotations to how the roster around him should be constructed.

[KillerLeft]

I don't understand why this would be. Grimes is a Shooting Guard?

If it looks like a guard, runs like a guard, defends like a guard... it's a Guard.

Luka is a Forward, even though he is the primary play-maker. When he plays next to PJW, Luka is the SF. I think Luka could also play some minutes at PF too (with any three of Kyrie, Grimes/Klay, Naji ahead of him). If you guys can make that shift in how you view Luka, then everything becomes easier... from figuring out rotations to how the roster around him should be constructed.

One of you is talking about offense, the other about defense. These days it's pretty common for players to play different positions on different ends, but when THEY refer to their own positions, it's almost always based on OFFENSE. Luka consistently refers to himself as a PG, which makes sense, because he constantly has the ball in his hands ABOVE THE BREAK, initiating the offense. It's not about size, it's about what positional responsibilities they learn from within their team's offensive system. 

I agree he's a forward on defense, but you'll never hear him refer to himself that way, and when you see the All NBA teams, the All Star teams, etc, you'll usually see him listed as a guard.

Grimes is 2 sized, yes, and I'm sure 99% of his time on the floor will be spent defending not only guards, but the BEST, ball-handling guard on the opposing side, but in the offense, his skillset as a movement shooter with a quick release and lack of ability to floor the ball to creative effect make him pretty ideal as Klay Thompson's backup. Both will be playing the 3 on offense - pretty easy to see that coming, imo. 

I don't want to put words in people's mouths, but I believe those who are claiming Grimes won't play guard are simply saying (correctly) that he won't be given the ball and asked to initiate offense, which is what BOTH guards need to be able to do for the Dallas "offense" to work. And, incidentally, that's why I had high hopes for Hardy getting a role this season and why I now have a sneaky feeling Dinwiddie has a real shot to play an actual rotation role this year, not just an insurance role. His competetion is Exum, who has the ball-handling and passing competency but not much of an instinct or belief in himself when it comes to threatening the defense to create an advantage for the team.

[Smitty]

I think this is about right, only I think Dinwiddie has a pretty good shot at stealing a big chunk of those Exum minutes (which I'm not hoping for, but might be necessary if Exum is still allergic to shooting) and I hope Grimes gets a few minutes as a guard.

I agree that Dinwiddie can and probably will have a bigger role than what I posted. He’ll likely spot start when one of Luka or Kyrie are out. And he might be closer to 20+ mpg in his normal bench role. Exum however has something none of the guards have, if we’re saying Grimes is a wing, and that’s defense. You’ve pointed out that the Mavs may have gone a bit too far on the offense side of things this offseason and in my opinion Exum has shown to be a valuable regular season player, especially on the defensive end. For now, I’d like to count him as a rotational piece to start the year. It’ll all work itself out eventually either way.