FA: Spencer Dinwiddie Heads to DAL | 1 yr/vet min

[KillerLeft]

It totally depends on how effective everyone is.  I kind of feel like the days of Kidd won't give the best players their minutes kind of died with the whole Christian Wood thing.  The more effective players have always gravitated toward more minutes (even if it does take a while).  So if Din is getting 7th or 8th man minutes, its because he is playing really well.  My expectation is that Grimes is going to be better than a lot of folks think (due to recency bias) and he will become a mainstay in the rotation.  Naji will be the primary backup forward almost by default so I expect Din wont be cutting into our primary defensive rotation.  He probably will cut into Exum minutes and Hardy might find himself off ball more (the value of which you and I disagree on).  I think all three guys will have plenty of chances to show something.  I just think depth is more important for a contending team than potentially losing some developmental minutes.

Hey man, I sure hope you're right!

[F Gump]

The emboldened has been my rallying cry for years, so always assume that it's my goal. 

I don't think your memory of Dinwiddie is an accurate one. He's a ball stopper, not a ball mover. The one time since Kidd came here the ball moved, even just a little, was during this past post-season. Not during the regular season, mostly, but the ball started to move just a little down the stretch and then the movement increased with each playoff round until Boston's defense completely befuddled the Mavs' "system" (which I use loosely). 

The ball moved LESS during the '22 run, not MORE. It was "my turn, your turn" and didn't work, particularly when they reached GS, a real playoff team at the time. Maybe you feel differently, but I felt better about this past playoff team in many ways than I did after that post-season. This one felt more sustainable to me, as if it could be built upon as a predictor of future success. Judging by what the Mavs are doing, I'm not so sure they felt that way. 

This signing (if it means what I think, in terms of playing time, which it might not, to be fair) is a step AWAY from ball movement, not towards. 

Plus, you totally discounted my point about the additions of Grimes, Marshall and Thompson, ALL of whom represent an uptick in TEAM offensive play (AKA ball movement) relative to the players they're replacing. Dinwiddie, by comparison, has only ever been effective in situations wherein he A) has the ball in his hands and B) has been allowed to create shots for himself basically at will. The year before coming here (coming off of major injury) he started his season in Washington as the focal point of their offense, to some successful effect, actually, and then was asked to stop playing that way. That's when his "bad" stretch of that season in Washington began. When he got here to Dallas, they let him play that way again, and he responded with a pretty effective stretch of play - but, at the expense of ball movement and especially defense. 

All of that to say: two-way players who move the ball from DIFFERENT POSITIONS ON OFFENSE (like the ones in Boston) are what's needed. If ONLY your GUARDS are handling the ball, you haven't actually added ball-handling unless they're going to play a lot together (3 or even 4 at a time) which is exactly what I'm afraid of.

Yeah, I disagree on pretty much all of what you wrote here.
1 I don't accept your characterization of the play of the 2022 team, nor do I agree with your assertion of why they fell short. They had ball handlers, who did handle the ball, but they moved the ball to players who needed it (lots of open 3's). Their weakness wasn't lack of ball movement, but rather that the team's limited number of 2-way talent (that had some ability to be usable on both ends) was thin. By the time they got to GS, some had been too overworked, and one-way players had to be played in shifts (which then weakened them on one end or the other). Just not enough talent.
2 I don't see the additions (Klay, Naji, or Grimes) as offense-only players that would signal abandoning a desire for defense. In fact, I see them as players whose appeal to the Mavs was because they do play defense -- but they also can help on the other end too. Closer to 2-way players.
3 So I see the Mavs trying to move from players who are EXTREMELY one platoon (with very limited ability on the other end of the floor -- THJ, Green, DJJ - to players who can contribute a lot on BOTH ends.

And I think that's smart.

As for SD, I do agree he is one-dimensional (offense only) and for that reason, I think his potential role here will be to sub for Luka or Kyrie, if needed. Or sit. But I think Kidd is very focused on defense, and his minutes (other than Luka and Ky) will be rewarded to whoever defends (with an eye to who can also play some some offense, while offering good defense). I suspect that those getting minutes subbing for Luka/Ky will have the same criteria.

I don't think that's an offense-first approach at all.

Why did they sign SD, if defense is important? Because they wanted to be sure that the ball-handling, offense-creating part of the whole, the engine driving them, is adequately stocked. Do you have enough of that if Luka or Ky get nicked and sit for a time? You can't afford for your offense to collapse. There are no good 2-way players willing to take a 3rd-string job and very limited minutes. Thus SD, not DSJ.

But generally they are working with the approach that it's a two-way game, and while you can get by with one-platoon players during the regular season, you have an issue in the playoffs. Boston had a whole team full of two way players, and Mavs need that type of roster too. imo

[KillerLeft]

2 I don't see the additions (Klay, Naji, or Grimes) as offense-only players that would signal abandoning a desire for defense. In fact, I see them as players whose appeal to the Mavs was because they do play defense -- but they also can help on the other end too. Closer to 2-way players.

3 So I see the Mavs trying to move from players who are EXTREMELY one platoon (with very limited ability on the other end of the floor -- THJ, Green, DJJ - to players who can contribute a lot on BOTH ends.

And I think that's smart.

As for SD, I do agree he is one-dimensional (offense only) and for that reason, I think his potential role here will be to sub for Luka or Kyrie, if needed. Or sit. But I think Kidd is very focused on defense, and his minutes (other than Luka and Ky) will be rewarded to whoever defends (with an eye to who can also play some some offense, while offering good defense). I suspect that those getting minutes subbing for Luka/Ky will have the same criteria.

I don't think that's an offense-first approach at all.

It's a two-way game, and while you can get by with one-platoon players during the regular season, you have an issue in the playoffs. Boston had a whole team full of two way players, and Mavs need that type of roster too.

The first part isn't (at all, like even close) to what I said. You're quite literally agreeing with me. I've pointed out that those new guys were two-way players replacing one-dimensional players (and have been doing so, over and over and over). What you've articulated there has been my central thesis of the summer, and I believe I've stated it quite clearly. When I respond to someone, I try to keep their last several takes in mind to form a nuanced opinion of what they're trying to express. 

My point about THOSE guys was to illustrate the lack of a need (in my mind) for another Dinwiddie type (in addition to Hardy). I DON'T think that's a step in the right direction if he (Dinwiddie) plays a lot. 

You can disagree with me about the '22 run. That's your prerogative. I have the benefit of having watched those games 7-8 times each at this point, and I don't remember the offense being very sophisticated, personally.

[Jym]

I would have hated a Dinwiddie move more last year
Would have been much more concerned about it killing Hardy's spot. Now I can say I don't really care. Not convinced he'll ever be more than a minimum/mini-MLE type guy

[msf4717]

I can only comprehend two lines of thinking about this signing:

1) Solid signing for a 15th guy that offers some skills and experience in areas where we might potentially lack depth. We are also familiar with him and he was us, which is also one less reason for concern. I'm not worried about the impact on other players because Darwinism will dictate who earns playing time. If Hardy and/or Grimes are the now or even the future, they'll get their minutes. Or:

2) We must have made promises or Kidd will not be able to help himself from playing Dinwiddie to the detriment of the team and its development.

Occam's razor has me leaning toward choice no. 1 and that people are looking too hard for reasons to fret, but reasonable minds could differ.

[KillerLeft]

I would have hated a Dinwiddie move more last year
Would have been much more concerned about it killing Hardy's spot. Now I can say I don't really care. Not convinced he'll ever be more than a minimum/mini-MLE type guy

There is this, and you might be right. 

If you are right, it’s still a loss for those who were holding out hope that he will be more than that, like myself. Does that make sense?

[KillerLeft]

I can only comprehend two lines of thinking about this signing:

1) Solid signing for a 15th guy that offers some skills and experience in areas where we might potentially lack depth.  We are also familiar with him and he was us, which is also one less reason for concern. I'm not worried about the impact on other players because Darwinism will dictate who earns playing time.  If Hardy and/or Grimes are the now or even the future, they'll get their minutes. Or:

2) We must have made promises or Kidd will not be able to help himself from playing Dinwiddie to the detriment of the team and its development.

Occam's razor has me leaning toward choice no. 1 and that people are looking too hard for reasons to fret, but reasonable minds could differ.

I hope you are right, and for the long-term success of the team, I hope Hardy rises to the top of your Darwinism!

[F Gump]

1 The first part isn't (at all, like even close) to what I said. 

2  My point about THOSE guys was to illustrate the lack of a need (in my mind) for another Dinwiddie type (in addition to Hardy). I DON'T think that's a step in the right direction if he (Dinwiddie) plays a lot. 

1 My apologies. Not intended. I thought I was properly speaking to your intended point, but you know better than me. Sorry.

2 My perception of "why did they sign SD" and "how does he fit" is certainly different than yours.
...a. I think he was signed to fill in for players who do create offense, and don't play defense that well (because that's who he is) -- and I don't think he will be used otherwise.
...b. I don't think he will play a lot, barring some significant extend-time injury to either Luka or Kyrie. Because he's here imo as insurance for those players.
...c. In fact, I'm not convinced SD will be above Exum in the general pecking order, because Exum has already shown he is a 2-way player who can also be used as 2nd (or 3rd) ball-handler/creator. SD would have to be WAYYYYY better on the offensive end, in order to be higher in the pecking order. imo

[KillerLeft]

1 My apologies. Not intended. I thought I was properly speaking to your intended point, but you know better than me. Sorry.

2 My perception of "why did they sign SD" and "how does he fit" is certainly different than yours.
...a. I think he was signed to fill in for players who do create offense, and don't play defense that well (because that's who he is) -- and I don't think he will be used otherwise.
...b. I don't think he will play a lot, barring some significant extend-time injury to either Luka or Kyrie. Because he's here imo as insurance for those players.
...c. In fact, I'm not convinced SD will be above Exum in the general pecking order, because Exum has already shown he is a 2-way player who can also be used as 2nd (or 3rd) ball-handler/creator. SD would have to be WAYYYYY better on the offensive end, in order to be higher in the pecking order. imo

I like A, B and C, and you could be right on the money. If so, the only casualty here is Hardy's chance of breaking through this season, as Dinwiddie will undoubtedly be ahead of him in the pecking order. And now, we've come back full circle. 

If you (the general "you", not you, "FGump") aren't high on Hardy, it's easy to see this as inconsequential, especially if your A, B and C are correct. At that point, we're just debating the merits of the 12th-15th guys on the roster, right? But if, like me, Hardy's impending breakout season (whether real or delusional) was part of why you were excited for the upcoming season to start, then today kind of sucks. That's all I'm saying. Hardy's path just got tougher, and right or wrong, I wonder if that's not detrimental to the team in the long run. 

I think Exum is a liiiiittle safer, due to him having utility at more than one position and in more than one role, though I do think his unwillingness to engage, offensively, is likely viewed as more of a problem (from the decision makers' perspectives) than you seem to believe. Gun to my head, I probably lean towards your C being correct, given what we know today, but I don't think it's crazy to wonder if it might go the other way.

[WildArkieBoy]

...c. In fact, I'm not convinced SD will be above Exum in the general pecking order, because Exum has already shown he is a 2-way player who can also be used as 2nd (or 3rd) ball-handler/creator. SD would have to be WAYYYYY better on the offensive end, in order to be higher in the pecking order. imo

Does the representation of Exum as a ball handler/creator jive with 40.9 and 40.0 playoff minutes for Luka and Kyrie respectively while only 6.9 for Exum?  If Exum is the answer as third ball handler, why sign Dinwiddie?

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

But you're not making much sense here. 

If Dinwiddie is as close to being done as you're describing (which is a separate discussion worth having), then shouldn't Hardy easily take his minutes at that point?

Kidd has never shown that he is over-reliant on age and experience just because he prefers that like RC. He always plays around with rotations but most importantly plays the most talented guys whenever possible.

He gave Brunson his starting role halfway into the season. He was playing Lively 26mpg until the Gafford addition. 

Point is, if you can fill the role and play well, Kidd could care less about age and experience. In that vein is Dinwiddie is washed, why is Hardy's minutes in jeopardy?

Ya, it makes no sense.  Either he's washed up OR is a threat to Hardy's minutes.

[audiosway]

I'm definitely excited to see SD come back to the Mavs bench. I was pushing for them to sign him on here as soon as the Finals ended. I don't think he'll see heavy minutes. I think he will be behind Gafford, Grimes, and Naji with that. But, I think he is exactly what they need. They struggled last year if Kai and/or Luka weren't on the floor. Hardy showed a little moxi but he's just too young yet. Exum shrunk in the big moments.

They needed a guy that could be a playmaker to come in and provide a spark off the bench. That's SD.

Btw, I also was saying they needed a big time shooter. I mentioned Bertans just because I didn't think they could get a guy like Klay. I also specifically mentioned Spencer and Naji as ones to watch going to the Mavs before the offseason started. Now that I'm done patting myself on the back. lol.

[F Gump]

If you (the general "you", not you, "FGump") aren't high on Hardy, it's easy to see this as inconsequential, especially if your A, B and C are correct. At that point, we're just debating the merits of the 12th-15th guys on the roster, right? But if, like me, Hardy's impending breakout season (whether real or delusional) was part of why you were excited for the upcoming season to start, then today kind of sucks. That's all I'm saying. Hardy's path just got tougher, and right or wrong, I wonder if that's not detrimental to the team in the long run. 

I'm in the minority obviously, but I don't think they trust (or should trust) Hardy to take another step. And I don't think he's all that desirable unless he does. His defense is still awful, and while he's good at getting shots, it's his shots - so he can't create offense for the team as a whole. When he plays, I see his impact as being THJ Jr - a guy who will get and take lots of shots, but who is generally cringeworthy.

To me the only question is whether they give him gift minutes, to try again to develop further. I think they might, but only sporadically. For me he looks like a candidate for the bottom 5 (along with SD, Lawson/Morris, Powell, Omax).

Does the representation of Exum as a ball handler/creator jive with 40.9 and 40.0 playoff minutes for Luka and Kyrie respectively while only 6.9 for Exum?  If Exum is the answer as third ball handler, why sign Dinwiddie?

I don't put a lot of weight into playoff minutes (and rotations) when building a 15-man roster. They are a much different animal; if players are healthy, you probably only need 10, maybe even less. Luka/Kyrie rarely play 40 in the regular season.

The 82 games, you have to plan for more. Lots of situations can arise. And you do want plenty of bodies to lessen the wear and tear on Luka/Kyrie and others who will be carrying the load in the regular season.

[KillerLeft]

I don't put a lot of weight into playoff minutes (and rotations) when building a 15-man roster. They are a much different animal; if players are healthy, you probably only need 10, maybe even less. Luka/Kyrie rarely play 40 in the regular season.

The 82 games, you have to plan for more. Lots of situations can arise. And you do want plenty of bodies to lessen the wear and tear on Luka/Kyrie and others who will be carrying the load in the regular season.

This is a good point and reminder that we can't just fast forward to the playoffs.

However, to WAB's point, given everything we just witnessed and imagining this past post-season exactly as it was, only with Dinwiddie on the roster, I do think it's likely he would've gotten a bigger role than Exum. The question is: will Exum continue to grow and learn from those series? He CAN be a threat to score - a good one, actually. It's just that he WON'T. I sure hope he goes into this season with the idea that he's got to improve in that area to add to the other ways in which he helps, because there inevitably comes a point (usually around the 2nd round) where you simply cannot play if being on the floor means the other team can defend 5 on 4. 

Not to beat a dead horse, but that's where my Hardy takes are coming from. He IS a threat, and consequently got tapped for playoff minutes he clearly wasn't ready to play, but they needed someone to be a threat so, so badly, he was the only choice. In that context, I kind of think this Dinwiddie thing might be about more than just an end of bench swing (though I do agree with your point about putting the roster together for the whole season, not just the playoffs).

[WildArkieBoy]

The 82 games, you have to plan for more. Lots of situations can arise. And you do want plenty of bodies to lessen the wear and tear on Luka/Kyrie and others who will be carrying the load in the regular season.

That's been my focus/concern too.

[F Gump]

Not to beat a dead horse, but that's where my Hardy takes are coming from. He IS a threat, and consequently got tapped for playoff minutes he clearly wasn't ready to play, but they needed someone to be a threat so, so badly, he was the only choice. In that context, I kind of think this Dinwiddie thing might be about more than just an end of bench swing (though I do agree with your point about putting the roster together for the whole season, not just the playoffs).

Yes they wanted someone to score baskets in the playoffs, and didn't have them. They tried THJ first, then went to Hardy in desperation. At that point, why not? Sadly, both were meh.

BUT ....I actually think they filled that THJ hole, which is good.

Hardy? Not promoted. Not in the mix for the rotation imo. Still the dire emergency solution to try, in an emergency. But he's still here, because why not?

[MaxiThreeba]

A.) Bigger playmaker: Luka - Dinwiddie
B.) Scorer: Kyrie - Hardy
C.) Shooter (Defender?) Klay - Grimes
D.) Dirty Work Big Wing: PJ - Naji
E.) Big: Lively - Gafford

Exum can give you some A and C
Maxi can give you some D and E (along with being the only stretch 5)
Powell can give you some E

Morris is a cheerleader
OMax is the hope of some C or D

Not all perfect fits but the player archetypes kind of line up.

[KillerLeft]

Hardy? Not promoted. Not in the mix for the rotation imo. Still the dire emergency solution to try, in an emergency. But he's still here, because why not?

Well, we can agree on that. I'm just saying that I believe correlation between that and this Dinwiddie signing is pretty easy to find, and might just throw a kink in your earlier point C about Exum.

[F Gump]

Well, we can agree on that. I'm just saying that I believe correlation between that and this Dinwiddie signing is pretty easy to find, and might just throw a kink in your earlier point C about Exum.

Yeah, not sure if I follow your reasoning, but I think you're saying ....

"They signed SD because Hardy isn't good enough, especially as a scoring PG to run the offense (which was their dream)."

(a) Yep, sounds about right. I think that was one of the things they have wanted Hardy to become. And he just didn't.
(b) I think they have moved on from Hardy for the most part. They're finding better answers and have stopped waiting.

I think SD is envisioned as the emergency PG (and not as a potential THJ or Hardy replacement), and will  split those very limited minutes with Exum, with SD as the emergency PG who can score and distribute, and Exum as the emergency PG who can defend and distribute. A very limited role, except in emergencies and "load management" situations.

I think Hardy's path to minutes at PG is now gone, blocked by 1 Luka  2 Kyrie  3/4 Exum/SD.

I think Hardy's path to minutes is now solely at wing (SG-SF), and is effectively blocked by 5 players who will all be in line to get minutes over him:  Kyrie, Klay, Naji, Grimes, Exum, all of whom look to be better choices than Hardy on BOTH ends of the floor. All of those except Kyrie are good defenders, and all can score efficiently.

[KillerLeft]

Yeah, not sure if I follow your reasoning, but I think you're saying ....
"They signed SD because Hardy isn't good enough, especially as a scoring PG to run the offense (which was their dream)."
(a) Yep, sounds about right. I think that was one of the things they have wanted Hardy to become. And he just didn't.
(b) I think they have moved on from Hardy for the most part. They're finding better answers and have stopped waiting.
I think SD is envisioned as the emergency PG (and not as a potential THJ or Hardy replacement), and will  split those very limited minutes with Exum, with SD as the emergency PG who can score and distribute, and Exum as the emergency PG who can defend and distribute. A very limited role, except in emergencies and "load management" situations.

A and B are correct - meaning that’s my thinking. 

As for the rest…Yes, Dinwiddie was added last, or almost last, yes, he was obtained from the bargain pile, and yes, he is paid like an emergency option. I do agree that it COULD play out like suggest. But I think assuming it will play out that way overlooks one ginormous thing:

While you keep trumpeting the virtues of Exum, who I also like (please don’t get me wrong), I haven’t seen you address the fact that he was the underachiever during the playoffs that they didn’t plan for. It was his, specific ball-handling role that malfunctioned and left him on the outside of the rotation when they needed another one of those. It was he who created the void they desperately tried to fill with Hardy, who, at the time, was deemed to be a better risk in those circumstances, despite clearly not being ready. For all of Exum’s merits, causing the offense to play 4 on 5 was more of a problem than even Hardy’s lack of defensive awareness or his inexperience plying his offensive game in high-leverage situations against the best teams in the league.  

I see that, and then I see this Dinwiddie signing, and I think they might have more in mind for him than just emergency. I think there could be some correlation there, even if it’s just wishful on their part.

Like I said before, maybe Exum comes in with a healthy understanding of what he needs to focus on in order to avoid this outcome in round 2 - I certainly hope so, because so much of what he does is quite helpful. Maybe Hardy is even closer than I think and he will win a role even with Dinwiddie in his way. And, I suppose, if neither of those things happen, it will be nice to have Dinwiddie around.