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FA: Spencer Dinwiddie Heads to DAL | 1 yr/vet min
#41
(07-22-2024, 03:17 PM)mvossman Wrote: Its hard to see a world where hardy gets 24 MPG, even before this signing.  With Klay in the mix I expect the bench focus to be more defense oriented.  Naji and Grimes are likely getting the big minutes.  Hardy will have to compete with Exum and Din for the scraps.

Maybe MPG is a bad metric. Let´s say total minutes due to injuries and rest. There will be plenty of minutes to go around. Thanks to Mr. Flagg there will be 6-7 teams that will try to lose every game. You get a chance to keep Kyrie, Luka and Klay fresh for the play-offs. Exum and Kleber will probably miss their usual 30 games, too.
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#42
(07-22-2024, 03:17 PM)mvossman Wrote: Its hard to see a world where hardy gets 24 MPG, even before this signing.  With Klay in the mix I expect the bench focus to be more defense oriented.  Naji and Grimes are likely getting the big minutes.  Hardy will have to compete with Exum and Din for the scraps.

I think that's a smart assessment. Until there's an injury (or a rest day) for Luka, Kyrie, or Klay, it's hard to see how Hardy or SD play much, given their abysmal play on defense.

In addition to your list, I think Exum is also in the mix for bench minutes, because his defense is good. He proved himself to be a 3-and-D ballhandler option last season. I think Maxi is also in that mix for bench minutes.

In practical terms, I think the basic rotation minutes are filled by:

GUARDS (Ball-handlers)(Offense Creators) - 2 positions, 96 mpg - Luka, Kyrie, Klay spilt about all of these (with any leftovers going to Exum or SD)
CENTER - defense, 48 mpg - 1 position - Gafford + Lively  (with Powell or Maxi used for odd needs)
FORWARDS - defense primarily - 2 positions, 96 mpg - PJW, Maxi, Naji, Exum, Grimes
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#43
(07-22-2024, 03:39 PM)F Gump Wrote: I think that's a smart assessment. Until there's an injury (or a rest day) for Luka, Kyrie, or Klay, it's hard to see how Hardy or SD play much, given their abysmal play on defense.

In addition to your list, I think Exum is also in the mix for bench minutes, because his defense is good. He proved himself to be a 3-and-D ballhandler option last season. I think Maxi is also in that mix for bench minutes.

In practical terms, I think the basic rotation minutes are filled by:

GUARDS (Ball-handlers)(Offense Creators) - 2 positions, 96 mpg - Luka, Kyrie, Klay spilt about all of these (with any leftovers going to Exum or SD)
CENTER - defense, 48 mpg - 1 position - Gafford + Lively  (with Powell or Maxi used for odd needs)
FORWARDS - defense primarily - 2 positions, 96 mpg - PJW, Maxi, Naji, Exum, Grimes

I think I'm probably the poster here most dismayed about this deal, because I firmly believe that 1) knowing Kidd, there's no way in hell SD gets less than 8th-highest total minutes over the season on the team unless he's incontrovertible and unrecoverable garbage in comparison to his prior stint here, and 2) that's going to slaughter our defense badly enough to engender fewer regular season wins as well as otherwise unnecessary playoff losses.
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#44
Besides Hardy being 20 years old, he´s barely been a net negative defensively, since he replaces Luka/Kyrie. It´s offensively where the drop-off from them is monumental, cause he´s simply not a PG.
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#45
This does convolute the rotation if everyone is healthy and playing well. But those types of IFs usually end up working themselves out.

I don't have a high enough opinion of Hardy that we should forgo adding talent just to make sure Kidd gives Hardy minutes. Let him beat out Dinwiddie and Exum for minutes.
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#46
(07-22-2024, 12:11 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: If anything, I think this may signal that Hardy is going to be the next piece to be traded.

Or heck, even Exum now.
If anything, Brandon Williams should be let go now, no?
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#47
This is going to be fun! Secured another much-needed ISO scorer who can go 1 on 1 and get his own shot. Wouldn't be surprised to see a lineup of:

Luka
Kyrie
Dinwiddie
Klay
Any big man

Or if you want to get crazy with it...maybe Luka as the biggest player on the floor and then add one of the Naji/Grimes/Exum/Hardy for a super-small ball lineup  Cool
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#48
(07-22-2024, 04:31 PM)SwisherPrice Wrote: This is going to be fun! Secured another much-needed ISO scorer who can go 1 on 1 and get his own shot. Wouldn't be surprised to see a lineup of:

Luka
Kyrie
Dinwiddie
Klay
Any big man

Or if you want to get crazy with it...maybe Luka as the biggest player on the floor and then add one of the Naji/Grimes/Exum/Hardy for a super-small ball lineup  Cool

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#49
Its kind of crazy to me that we just signed a guy who was a crucial part of our WCF run 2 years ago (28 minutes a game) to a vet min deal and its met with mixed reviews. This is the kind of ring chasing vet signing this team never used to be able to do (just as Klay was the big name free agent signing they never used to be able to do). This is a huge plus from a depth standpoint, especially considering the availability limitations of Luka/Kyrie/Exum. I have never been a huge Kidd proponent, but he did manage to make two unexpected deep playoff runs in 2 out of 3 years. I think he can probably handle this.
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#50
(07-22-2024, 02:00 PM)F Gump Wrote: With all due respect, I think this take is way off base. Almost polar opposite to reality, frankly.

Rather them not feeling the need for multiple ball-handlers (aka offense creators) on the floor, I think their lineup will have AT LEAST two of Luka-Kyrie-Klay, and I think they will at times opt for THREE ball-handlers (aka offense creators) at a time, including in the starting lineup that includes all of those 3.

Your thought that they will look to complement their offense with some defense is right on target imo, but I'm looking for them to do that within the framework of the MULTIPLE ball-handlers (aka offense creators) model.

It's in that vein they added Dinwiddie imo, and Exum also fits that mold, as players who can make the offense continue to flow as a 2nd or even 3rd ball-handler (aka offense creator), particularly in cases of rest days, injuries, etc. I think we're sleeping on Exum's value, and I think they are actually doubling down on making sure they have plenty at all times with the addition of SD.

The ball needs to move.

The emboldened has been my rallying cry for years, so always assume that it's my goal. 

I don't think your memory of Dinwiddie is an accurate one. He's a ball stopper, not a ball mover. The one time since Kidd came here the ball moved, even just a little, was during this past post-season. Not during the regular season, mostly, but the ball started to move just a little down the stretch and then the movement increased with each playoff round until Boston's defense completely befuddled the Mavs' "system" (which I use loosely). 

The ball moved LESS during the '22 run, not MORE. It was "my turn, your turn" and didn't work, particularly when they reached GS, a real playoff team at the time. Maybe you feel differently, but I felt better about this past playoff team in many ways than I did after that post-season. This one felt more sustainable to me, as if it could be built upon as a predictor of future success. Judging by what the Mavs are doing, I'm not so sure they felt that way. 

This signing (if it means what I think, in terms of playing time, which it might not, to be fair) is a step AWAY from ball movement, not towards. 

Plus, you totally discounted my point about the additions of Grimes, Marshall and Thompson, ALL of whom represent an uptick in TEAM offensive play (AKA ball movement) relative to the players they're replacing. Dinwiddie, by comparison, has only ever been effective in situations wherein he A) has the ball in his hands and B) has been allowed to create shots for himself basically at will. The year before coming here (coming off of major injury) he started his season in Washington as the focal point of their offense, to some successful effect, actually, and then was asked to stop playing that way. That's when his "bad" stretch of that season in Washington began. When he got here to Dallas, they let him play that way again, and he responded with a pretty effective stretch of play - but, at the expense of ball movement and especially defense. 

All of that to say: two-way players who move the ball from DIFFERENT POSITIONS ON OFFENSE (like the ones in Boston) are what's needed. If ONLY your GUARDS are handling the ball, you haven't actually added ball-handling unless they're going to play a lot together (3 or even 4 at a time) which is exactly what I'm afraid of.
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#51
(07-22-2024, 02:42 PM)F Gump Wrote: That's NOT what I said. I never said that DET said "You have to take Grimes, if we are going to do this deal" nor that the Mavs had any issue with taking him.

I think he's an unknown, not the given that many think he is.

My guess is that his role (such as it is) will evolve, based on how he plays. Like Lively last year, or DJJ, or Exum, or Holmes, or Wood the prior year, or others who came with checkered pasts.

I hope Grimes is much better in Dallas, but I think it's more realistic to think the jury is still out. I'm cautioning he may be quite meh, because that's who he was.

Apologies if you feel my summation was too hasty - the paraphrase I offered was intended to communicate the emboldened, which is VERY far from the reaction most of us had. Grimes is one year removed from being deemed "untouchable" by the Knicks while negotiating to trade for Donovan Mitchell (obviously ridiculous, in hindsight, but that's where he was at the time). He was the starting off-guard on a gritty playoff team. I don't think it's crazy to assume the Mavs are hopeful that he'll really hit here, and I don't reaaaaallly agree with your skepticism, as long as he's healthy, although I don't want to be dismissive of it, either. 

I was just trying to point out that SOME of us don't have Grimes penciled in as a top 7-9 guy. I do have him there, for the record.
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#52
(07-22-2024, 03:04 PM)mvossman Wrote: I feel like the worst case scenario for Hardy with a meaty role all season is significantly worse than better than Dinwiddie.

I think its clear the FO does not fully believe in Hardy (or Exum) to run the offense.  Personally I have the same concerns (Exum is partially about health).  For a team with championship aspirations, this is the kind of move that needed to be done.

Agree on both counts, but I still don't think this is the right way to go. I think they believe they're close enough for this margin stuff to matter, and ironically, I think it has the potential to push them farther away. 

Lots of people around on contract years who are going to be upset if they're not playing, all of a sudden. That's the kind of thing they DIDN'T have to deal with last season, except for with Hardaway.
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#53
(07-22-2024, 03:17 PM)mvossman Wrote: Its hard to see a world where hardy gets 24 MPG, even before this signing.  With Klay in the mix I expect the bench focus to be more defense oriented.  Naji and Grimes are likely getting the big minutes.  Hardy will have to compete with Exum and Din for the scraps.

Sadly, this is exactly right, except...not so fast with the whole "bench focus...more defensive-oriented" part. That's how I'd go, too, but I'm telling you...I expect Dinwiddie to PLAY. Hypothetically, regardless of whether you think this is likely, would you still be happy with this signing if it meant Exum wasn't in the rotation? What about Grimes? There are lots of ways this could play out, but Dinwiddie not being one of the loudest voices in the room isn't one of those ways.
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#54
(07-22-2024, 06:10 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: Agree on both counts, but I still don't think this is the right way to go. I think they believe they're close enough for this margin stuff to matter, and ironically, I think it has the potential to push them farther away. 

Lots of people around on contract years who are going to be upset if they're not playing, all of a sudden. That's the kind of thing they DIDN'T have to deal with last season, except for with Hardaway.

Paraphrasing a legendary football coach:  "If a dog's gonna bite, he'll bite as a pup."  So far, mostly barking from Hardy.
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#55
(07-22-2024, 06:13 PM)WildArkieBoy Wrote: Paraphrasing a legendary football coach:  "If a dog's gonna bite, he'll bite as a pup."  So far, mostly barking from Hardy.

Oh, I disagree HARD. I thought it took brass balls for Kidd to play him in the playoffs (I wouldn't have) and to his credit, I thought Hardy handled those minutes pretty well, for the most part. It's now-or-never for Hardy here in Dallas, I think. Those who've already written him off (which includes the laughable claim that he "isn't a PG") don't care, but I do because I haven't. Now, I will write him off, because that seems to be what the Mavericks are doing, so I have no choice. BUT, it does lower my enthusiasm to see how the season shakes out a little.
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#56
(07-22-2024, 04:47 PM)mvossman Wrote: Its kind of crazy to me that we just signed a guy who was a crucial part of our WCF run 2 years ago (28 minutes a game) to a vet min deal and its met with mixed reviews.  This is the kind of ring chasing vet signing this team never used to be able to do (just as Klay was the big name free agent signing they never used to be able to do).  This is a huge plus from a depth standpoint, especially considering the availability limitations of Luka/Kyrie/Exum.  I have never been a huge Kidd proponent, but he did manage to make two unexpected deep playoff runs in 2 out of 3 years.  I think he can probably handle this.

15 MPG. 3 PPG.  36/25/50. 1-4. Goodbye.

Everybody is in agreement that THJ has been utter crap post-ASG,but he has still played better than Dinwiddie on the Lakers. People need to get over what used to be and look at what is. That´s how we build a successful play-off rotation. There is usually a reason these veterans are available for the minimum. At least now we give them the minimum instead of paying anything from 5M to 24M. Big Grin
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#57
(07-22-2024, 06:23 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: 15 MPG. 3 PPG.  36/25/50. 1-4. Goodbye.

Everybody is in agreement that THJ has been utter crap post-ASG,but he has still played better than Dinwiddie on the Lakers. People need to get over what used to be and look at what is. That´s how we build a successful play-off rotation. There is usually a reason these veterans are available for the minimum. At least now we give them the minimum instead of paying anything from 5M to 24M. Big Grin

This!

I think there's a CHANCE he'll play better here, and possibly even a GOOD chance, BUT (and the "but" is everything) to get that, you have to give him the ball and let him cook, completely on his terms. This is about as far from improving the team as you can get, imo, considering it would mean 1) LESS healthy ball-movement, 2) the ball not being in better hands and 3) a better defender not being on the floor. 

I mean, the assumption on my part that he'll play might be completely incorrect, so I'll hope that he's for insurance only. But my goodness, it's like people stop watching these guys the second they leave the team. Or even worse, they romanticize what they did look like when they were on the team in the first place. Dinwiddie was good here back then, but it wasn't a GOOD offense - he just made his shots for a while. They have reached a point where improvement has to come from superior organization of offensive principles, I think. This guy ain't gonna help with that.
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#58
(07-22-2024, 12:34 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: I wouldn't already write off Hardy's potential to grow into a role just because Dinwiddie was signed. In fact I don't think there will be any issues. The Mavs still need an offensive creator on the bench that can come in and score at will.

The way I see it the Mavs have 2 defined roles for their guards: The orchestrator and the scorer. 

Luka is the orchestrator. He has the ball most of the time. Has a massive responsibility to not only score buckets but also set other guys up. Any guard who comes in off the bench to play this role has to do their best Luka impression, which just means you're setting guys up/scoring when needed.

The scorer is an easier role and is basically a traditional SG. You score buckets and you aren't that worried about setting others up. Kyrie is the scorer when Luka is on the court. He is probably one of the best in the league given his efficiency and shot diet. 

But what makes Kyrie so valuable is that he can float between Orchestrator and Scorer seamlessly. And the Mavs are looking to recreate this system off the bench. Looking at our guards:

Exum- Leans more toward an orchestrator. 
Hardy- Leans more toward a scorer. 
Grimes- Leans more toward a scorer.
Dinwiddie- Can either be an orchestrator or scorer. 

The addition of Dinwiddie I don't think has any bearing on Hardy's minutes and it really shouldn't be. I don't want Hardy being the Orchestrator. He's a bucket getter. Let him go get buckets. 

Seeing this, Hardy's biggest competition is Grimes. And both of those guys are going to be RFA's looking for paydays next summer. I think the Mavs wanted this friendly competition to see who gets the contract. I think the Mavs aren't going to pay both of them serious money and the player who can show they can fill that 6th man scoring role will be the one to get the contract. The other will be used in a trade to replace the Maxi role.
I’m buying most of this quality thinking if not all. My favorite idea is to have multiple players for a bench/backup role and let them compete. Every one of the guys mentioned has had time to develop. Perhaps the one working hardest on his game will show up and win the job.
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#59
(07-22-2024, 06:13 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: Sadly, this is exactly right, except...not so fast with the whole "bench focus...more defensive-oriented" part. That's how I'd go, too, but I'm telling you...I expect Dinwiddie to PLAY. Hypothetically, regardless of whether you think this is likely, would you still be happy with this signing if it meant Exum wasn't in the rotation? What about Grimes? There are lots of ways this could play out, but Dinwiddie not being one of the loudest voices in the room isn't one of those ways.

It totally depends on how effective everyone is.  I kind of feel like the days of Kidd won't give the best players their minutes kind of died with the whole Christian Wood thing.  The more effective players have always gravitated toward more minutes (even if it does take a while).  So if Din is getting 7th or 8th man minutes, its because he is playing really well.  My expectation is that Grimes is going to be better than a lot of folks think (due to recency bias) and he will become a mainstay in the rotation.  Naji will be the primary backup forward almost by default so I expect Din wont be cutting into our primary defensive rotation.  He probably will cut into Exum minutes and Hardy might find himself off ball more (the value of which you and I disagree on).  I think all three guys will have plenty of chances to show something.  I just think depth is more important for a contending team than potentially losing some developmental minutes.
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#60
(07-22-2024, 06:23 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: 15 MPG. 3 PPG.  36/25/50. 1-4. Goodbye.

Everybody is in agreement that THJ has been utter crap post-ASG,but he has still played better than Dinwiddie on the Lakers. People need to get over what used to be and look at what is. That´s how we build a successful play-off rotation. There is usually a reason these veterans are available for the minimum. At least now we give them the minimum instead of paying anything from 5M to 24M. Big Grin

I'm lost.  Why are you posting playoff numbers?  This isn't about cracking our 8 man playoff rotation with a min signing (hopefully those days are over).  This is about adding some depth, specifically PG depth (so I don't know why you are comparing to Timmy).  I don't know what we are going to get from him, but I am guessing its less than what we got two years ago, and more than Lakers got in a very small sample.
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