Trade & FA 2024-25: NYK Shopping Mitchell Robinson?

[DanSchwartzgan]

The guys on the Hardwood Knocks podcast brought up THJ to Detroit again today.  It is at least the third time I've heard them say it (THJ and a second to Detroit to clear space for DJJ).  It was kind of interesting that Dan Frivale brought up the term "opportunity cost" in terms of using THJ for space when you might could do something better.  Different "Dan", but same thing I've said almost word for word.

Who knows what a new GM in Detroit wants to do.  They have to hit the minimum salary and he may want to take some time to evaluate what he has.  So, maybe a one year guy who carries over salary space for a year isn't the worst thing (especially if that player also has some ties from his Michigan days).  THJ's expiring salary could also be valuable to Langdon at the TDL.  

Does that cost us a second?  We have Toronto's second next season.  On the same podcast, they did an over/under on free agents and Team Option guys.  I thought it was interesting that they thought Memphis would pick up Luke Kennard's $14.7mm option.  If they would do that for Kennard, is Hardaway really that different at $1.5mm more?

They dealt with DJJ's free agency surprisingly early in the show.  The O/U was set at $12.8mm and both hosts took the Over.  The idea being Dallas would clear the space to offer the $12.9mm exception and if they didn't, someone would.  If there was no returning salary in a THJ outgoing, Dallas could give DJJ the NT MLE and be $5.7mm under the first apron.

I tried to read up on the BA Exception which is about $4.8mm.  I believe we'd also have access to that as long as we stay under the first "tax" apron.  The wording is confusing.  The source I read says that isn't the LT level, it is the first apron (about $178mm).  FG has advocated that we stay about $1.0mm under that apron once all of our dealing is done (which would be the case if we traded THJ for no returning salary, gave DJJ the full NT MLE and spent the BAE at $4.8mm to sign a 15th player.  

The other interesting thing about the BAE is that it can be used in trades this summer.  So, possible uses:

1.  Sign a FA for up to $4.8mm (maybe just use part of it to pay someone more than they'd get at the minimum).  I'm not sure you can "target" someone valuable in free agency.  It is probably more like someone who falls through the cracks (like DJJ and Oubre last summer).  Is someone going to pay Hayward more than $5mm?

2.  Trade for someone already under contract making under the exception amount.  The list is pretty limited here.  Is it a salary dump?  Someone a team doesn't want to go into FA with the next summer?  Can you improve the return by adding the 2025 first?

Long way of saying there may be other ways to get some value out of a THJ dump (other than "just" getting to keep DJJ) through the use of the BAE.

[F Gump]

Latest numbers I have: All numbers are extrapolated by a defined percentage tied to the cap, so now the only real number they offer is Projected Cap. Sometimes the numbers get rounded up. I am using rounded up numbers.

Cap - $141.0M
Tax - $171.4M
Apron 1 - $178.7M
Apron 2 - $189.5M

BAE - $4.7M -- available if you have NTMLE (and didn't use BAE prior year). The Mavs TPEs are of similar size (4.95, 4.0).

To use both NTMLE and BAE after a THJ dump for air, the Mavs would have to only carry 14 players most of the season. (That may fit their roster-building model anyhow).

[SleepingHero]

Now that the playoffs are over, it's time to start a fresh free agency thread!


Starting with this:

Yossi Gozlan (@YossiGozlan)
In one hour, teams can start negotiating with their own free agents now that the NBA Finals are over.

This is a new change to the CBA being implemented this year that moves the unofficial start of free agency earlier.

Free agency dominos could start falling very soon.

[SleepingHero]

[Mavs2021]

Now that the playoffs are over, it's time to start a fresh free agency thread!


Starting with this:

Yossi Gozlan (@YossiGozlan)
In one hour, teams can start negotiating with their own free agents now that the NBA Finals are over.

This is a new change to the CBA being implemented this year that moves the unofficial start of free agency earlier.

Free agency dominos could start falling very soon.

Well it´s a good rule. Helps the worse owners to get some clarity into their draft and FA business. 13 years too late for us.

I´ll make a prediction. I don´t think they are getting Simons/Sexton, but instead get a veteran. No idea if it will work out, but here it goes

DeRozan for THJ/Kleber/two future 2nd round picks
Carter for Powell

[SleepingHero]

Well it´s a good rule. Helps the worse owners to get some clarity into their draft and FA business. 13 years too late for us.

I´ll make a prediction. I don´t think they are getting Simons/Sexton, but instead get a veteran. No idea if it will work out, but here it goes

DeRozan for THJ/Kleber/two future 2nd round picks
Carter for Powell

I agree the Mavs are going to go for a veteran, but I don't think it will be DeRozan. I think the Mavs are seriously going to go all in for Lebron this summer as a SnT. THJ+Maxi+Hardy+Green+2031 first for Lebron+Bronny. 

Mavs have to try and convince DJJ to take the TP-MLE and we hope OMax can grow into a Maxi replacement next season (which I don't think is that crazy of an idea).

We then hope to get a ring chasing vet min as a shooter off the bench using Lebron's Klutch connections like Gary Harris, Fournier, Trent Jr., Burks, Patty Mills, or maybe even Dinwiddie. Heck Kevin Love could even be a reasonable option as a break in case of emergency. Makes sense too for Lebron to get his old Cleveland guys back together around Luka and allows us to play 5 out.

Luka/Exum
Kyrie/Dinwiddie/Bronny
Lebron/DJJ
PJ/OMax/Morris
Gafford/Lively/Love/Powell

This team retains basically all the core players from the run and adds Lebron James to it for a final push for a ring.

[SwisherPrice]

Need that elite team full of ISO players! Ideally, you need 3 players who can take turns going 1 on 1 and then PJ should be bumped a spot where he can be a great #4 option/do-it-all player.

This offense is built on Luka and Kyrie "cooking" so I don't expect that to change. They just need 1-2 more good scorers...the tough part is finding players who can be above-average defenders too. What the Celtics have with 4-5 great 2-way players who can all play unselfish is nice but it's not really a model the Mavs can copy.

[mvossman]

Well it´s a good rule. Helps the worse owners to get some clarity into their draft and FA business. 13 years too late for us.

I´ll make a prediction. I don´t think they are getting Simons/Sexton, but instead get a veteran. No idea if it will work out, but here it goes

DeRozan for THJ/Kleber/two future 2nd round picks
Carter for Powell

DeRozan is a free agent.  What contract do you plan on sign and trading him to?  Would make more sense to just get Dinwiddie who is DeRozan lite, cheaper, younger and has positive history if he is not still but hurt about being traded.

I wonder if this season would have played out differently if he had signed with us instead of LA. The 22 version of Din would have made some difference as we were desperately searching for offense off the bench.

[KillerLeft]

The guys on the Hardwood Knocks podcast brought up THJ to Detroit again today.  It is at least the third time I've heard them say it (THJ and a second to Detroit to clear space for DJJ).  It was kind of interesting that Dan Frivale brought up the term "opportunity cost" in terms of using THJ for space when you might could do something better.  Different "Dan", but same thing I've said almost word for word.

Who knows what a new GM in Detroit wants to do.  They have to hit the minimum salary and he may want to take some time to evaluate what he has.  So, maybe a one year guy who carries over salary space for a year isn't the worst thing (especially if that player also has some ties from his Michigan days).  THJ's expiring salary could also be valuable to Langdon at the TDL.  

Does that cost us a second?  We have Toronto's second next season.  On the same podcast, they did an over/under on free agents and Team Option guys.  I thought it was interesting that they thought Memphis would pick up Luke Kennard's $14.7mm option.  If they would do that for Kennard, is Hardaway really that different at $1.5mm more?

They dealt with DJJ's free agency surprisingly early in the show.  The O/U was set at $12.8mm and both hosts took the Over.  The idea being Dallas would clear the space to offer the $12.9mm exception and if they didn't, someone would.  If there was no returning salary in a THJ outgoing, Dallas could give DJJ the NT MLE and be $5.7mm under the first apron.

I tried to read up on the BA Exception which is about $4.8mm.  I believe we'd also have access to that as long as we stay under the first "tax" apron.  The wording is confusing.  The source I read says that isn't the LT level, it is the first apron (about $173mm).  FG has advocated that we stay about $1.0mm under that apron once all of our dealing is done (which would be the case if we traded THJ for no returning salary, gave DJJ the full NT MLE and spent the BAE at $4.8mm to sign a 15th player.  

The other interesting thing about the BAE is that it can be used in trades this summer.  So, possible uses:

1.  Sign a FA for up to $4.8mm (maybe just use part of it to pay someone more than they'd get at the minimum).  I'm not sure you can "target" someone valuable in free agency.  It is probably more like someone who falls through the cracks (like DJJ and Oubre last summer).  Is someone going to pay Hayward more than $5mm?

2.  Trade for someone already under contract making under the exception amount.  The list is pretty limited here.  Is it a salary dump?  Someone a team doesn't want to go into FA with the next summer?  Can you improve the return by adding the 2025 first?

Long way of saying there may be other ways to get some value out of a THJ dump (other than "just" getting to keep DJJ) through the use of the BAE.

This post was so excellent I moved it to the new thread. I didn't know it would become the thread's first post, so sorry to put it above FGump's fine OP (thanks for starting the new thread, btw, Mr. Gump).

[Knutsen]

I agree the Mavs are going to go for a veteran, but I don't think it will be DeRozan. I think the Mavs are seriously going to go all in for Lebron this summer as a SnT. THJ+Maxi+Hardy+Green+2031 first for Lebron+Bronny. 

Mavs have to try and convince DJJ to take the TP-MLE and we hope OMax can grow into a Maxi replacement next season (which I don't think is that crazy of an idea).

We then hope to get a ring chasing vet min as a shooter off the bench using Lebron's Klutch connections like Gary Harris, Fournier, Trent Jr., Burks, Patty Mills, or maybe even Dinwiddie. Heck Kevin Love could even be a reasonable option as a break in case of emergency. Makes sense too for Lebron to get his old Cleveland guys back together around Luka and allows us to play 5 out.

Luka/Exum
Kyrie/Dinwiddie/Bronny
Lebron/DJJ
PJ/OMax/Morris
Gafford/Lively/Love/Powell

This team retains basically all the core players from the run and adds Lebron James to it for a final push for a ring.

That’s exactly what I guess our plan A looks like. Not sure if there’s any realistic chance to do it, but it’s the clearest path to a title in the „Kyrie-window“ for the next two years and probably Lebron‘s best bet to tie or overtake Jordan’s six titles. 

Side benefit would be that LeBron is probably the one player that could transform Luka‘s workout and nutrition habits in an instant simply by being a role model and mentoring him, because Luka looks up to him similar to how he looked up to Dirk in their lone season together. 

And one point on the court: we lost to Boston because we didn’t crack 100 points in 4 out of the 5 games with a big reason being our inability to hit the threes from above the break consistently. LeBron has been absolutely deadly from there, so that would change the spacing and open up everything.

[audiosway]

I agree the Mavs are going to go for a veteran, but I don't think it will be DeRozan. I think the Mavs are seriously going to go all in for Lebron this summer as a SnT. THJ+Maxi+Hardy+Green+2031 first for Lebron+Bronny. 

I'm serious when I say this wouldn't surprise me. LeBron is dying to play with Kyrie again. I'm not sure that he leaves the Lakers but playing with Kyrie and Luka wouldn't surprise me. They would likely win the next 2 titles with that lineup. LeBron retires and gives Dallas a time to find a replacement.
Luka
Kyrie
LeBron
PJ Washington
Lively

with Gafford and DJJ coming off the bench would be honestly not fair.

[RGP1981]

I agree the Mavs are going to go for a veteran, but I don't think it will be DeRozan. I think the Mavs are seriously going to go all in for Lebron this summer as a SnT. THJ+Maxi+Hardy+Green+2031 first for Lebron+Bronny. 

Mavs have to try and convince DJJ to take the TP-MLE and we hope OMax can grow into a Maxi replacement next season (which I don't think is that crazy of an idea).

We then hope to get a ring chasing vet min as a shooter off the bench using Lebron's Klutch connections like Gary Harris, Fournier, Trent Jr., Burks, Patty Mills, or maybe even Dinwiddie. Heck Kevin Love could even be a reasonable option as a break in case of emergency. Makes sense too for Lebron to get his old Cleveland guys back together around Luka and allows us to play 5 out.

Luka/Exum
Kyrie/Dinwiddie/Bronny
Lebron/DJJ
PJ/OMax/Morris
Gafford/Lively/Love/Powell

This team retains basically all the core players from the run and adds Lebron James to it for a final push for a ring.

YUCK! Do not want LeGramps. It isn't going to work, at all. Who's your POA defender?

Do I need to start calling you LeSleepyHero?

If you want to see Lebron playing with Kyrie again, then trade Luka to the Lakers for Lebron... or for AD, and let Lebron join the Mavericks as a free agent.

[Mavs2021]

DeRozan is a free agent.  What contract do you plan on sign and trading him to?  Would make more sense to just get Dinwiddie who is DeRozan lite, cheaper, younger and has positive history if he is not still but hurt about being traded.

I wonder if this season would have played out differently if he had signed with us instead of LA.  The 22 version of Din would have made some difference as we were desperately searching for offense off the bench.

Whatever the legal match bottom end of THJ/Kleber´s salaries is. So probably around 60/3 ish. I don´t want to sign him for that at all. He is one of my favourite players, but he´s also 35 years old. I just think that´s what will happen.

Please no more Dinwiddie talk. 1. He made his choice. 2. He put up 3/2/2 (rounding up) in the play-offs against Denver in like 13 MPG. .

[Mavs2021]

I'm serious when I say this wouldn't surprise me. LeBron is dying to play with Kyrie again. I'm not sure that he leaves the Lakers but playing with Kyrie and Luka wouldn't surprise me. They would likely win the next 2 titles with that lineup. LeBron retires and gives Dallas a time to find a replacement.
Luka
Kyrie
LeBron
PJ Washington
Lively

with Gafford and DJJ coming off the bench would be honestly not fair.

Only if the whistles travel. I think people underestimate how much LeBron has naturally declined. It´s normal. He´ll be 40 soon. If the Lakers didn´t literally get twice as many FTs as the rest of the league they are either the 10th or 11th seed. The suggested trade is a lot to give up for that.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

No LeBron!!

[Chicagojk]

I think Dallas will try to be opportunistic. I don’t expect much though. I think continuity with the new players and internal development will be the focus. We will wait our time and pool our assets looking for that right move. I dont see that move happening this offseason. Keep DJJ, move Hardaway, bring in a 5th guard. One area I would explore is a veteran PF type with some scoring ability. I might kick the tires on Hayward if he is cheap. Not sure we have the room or the space for him. Someone like him as a stop gap would interest me.

In addition, I would also like to see the mavs be aggressive on their two way guys. They have been pretty blah with these guys. We may have three spots open. Target interesting guys who fit what you are looking for.

[DanSchwartzgan]

This post was so excellent I moved it to the new thread. I didn't know it would become the thread's first post, so sorry to put it above FGump's fine OP (thanks for starting the new thread, btw, Mr. Gump).

Thanks.  I made a mistake that I corrected in the OP (calling the 1st apron $173mm when it is really more like $178.65mm).

Here is what Spotrac has for the Mav's.  The data below includes "Likely To Be Earned" bonuses in the cap number.  The confusing thing is you don't count Unlikely bonuses in your cap, but they do count against your apron number.  Kyrie and PJ each have some ULTBE to account for against the apron as noted.

Player                  Salary           Notes
1 Doncic              43,031,940
2 Irving               41,000,000     ULTBE $1,000,000
3 THJ                  16,193,183
4 PJ Washington   15,500,000     ULTBE $500,000
5 Gafford             13,394,160
6 Green               12,654,321
7 Maxi                 11,000,000
8 Lively                 5,014,560
9 Powell                4,000,000
10 Exum               3,150,000     Team Option 6/28
11 Omax               2,870,400
12 Lawson             2,120,683     NG
13 Hardy               2,019,699     NG
14 Morris               2,093,637
15 DJJ - 

Dead                     2,208,856    McGee

Total Salary         176,251,439

                                               Space Under/(Over)
First Apron          178,655,000      2,403,561
Second Apron      189,486,000    13,234,561


So, if you take the ULTBE's off of $2,403,561, you are $903,561 under the first apron.   If you trade THJ for air, you basically have about $17mm under the apron.  If you give DJJ the full $12.9 MLE, then you can use some of, but not all of the BAE (or one of the TPE's), but you've hard-capped yourself at the first apron.  You can also trade match THJ, but if you go over 100% of his salary, it also hard caps you at the first apron.  Here are the things that Hard Cap you at the First Apron:

Using more than the Tax MLE out of the NTMLE (the $5.2mm Tax MLE hard caps you at the second apron)
Using the BAE
Acquiring a player via S&T
Signing a buyout player who made more than the NTMLE on his previous contract
Using more than 100% in Salary Matching in a trade
Using a TPE that was created in a prior season.

I suspect more than ever that we will be proposing things that aren't legal under these new rules because of how close we sit to the first apron.  If keeping DJJ is the priority, everything he takes under the full NT MLE is a huge help.

[TurkishMFFL]

I think the signing of Paul George makes sense for both parties. We need his scoring, defense and hunger for success, he needs us as a contender and a good fit.

[Smitty]

There will be a lot of discussion surrounding DJJ, rightfully so. What will the Mavs have to do, if anything, to bring him back?!

I want it on record that I think he'll be back using the TPMLE (~5.2M), signing a 1+1 like Nicholas Batum and Bobby Portis did in 2021.

Some have said that this playoff run has pushed DJJ to NTMLE (~12.9M) and I just don't see it. Of course, it only takes one team, see Bruce Brown last year.


Per 36:

Career
12.3 pts | 6.0 rbs | 1.3 ast | 1.2 stl | 1.2 blk | 50.2 FG% (9.1 FGA) | 31.6 3PT% (3.4 3PA) | 12.9 PER

Mavs (23-24)
13.3 pts | 5.0 rbs | 1.5 ast | 1.1 stl | 1.0 blk | 48.3 FG% (10.0 FGA) | 34.3 3PT% (4.8 3PA) | 11.7 PER

Playoffs (23-24)
11.1 pts | 4.2 rbs | 1.5 ast | 0.6 stl | 1.2 blk | 48.1 FG% (8.9 FGA) | 36.9 3PT% (3.6 3PA) | 11.2 PER

I've said it many times, but I'll say it once more. DJJ was for the Mavs exactly what he's always been. A world class athlete, that can be a vertical threat on the offensive end and is a plus defender. He's just what this Luka-led Mavs team was missing. There's nothing he did this year that screams massive raise from vet minimum (2.7M) to NTMLE (12.9M).

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Id be fine with DJJ being back and Josh Green being back but my 1st exploration this offseason would be to find someone better than those two.

Luka
Kyrie
Lively
find a guy that can challenge or eclipse PJ Washington for 4th best player